Over the next couple months, I will be pre-ranking each position in fantasy baseball, providing sleepers, players to avoid, and prospects to know. First up is the catcher position.
Catcher has traditionally been a position with two to three elite players and a bunch of mediocre ones that don't provide fantasy value; that is no longer the case, however. Last year, the emergence of Mike Napoli, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters helped to balance the position out a bit, so that you will no longer face a major disadvantage if you miss out on a top catcher. Now, the top nine or ten catchers can at least perform comparably. Whether your team needs an average boost (Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina) or power numbers (J.P. Arencibia, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli), plenty of options are available.
12/20/11
Yu Darvish to Texas: What To Expect
The Texas Rangers continue to be big players on the national scene, but this year's move comes as a surprise to me. It's been no secret that the Rangers were interested in Darvish this whole offseason, and that Nolan Ryan values his starting rotation above all else, as evidenced by his trade for Cliff Lee and his offer over $125 million to Lee in 2011's offseason. The best pitchers available this offseason in no particular order were C.C. Sabathia, C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish.
GM Jon Daniels and President Nolan Ryan are taking on a definite risk by not offering C.J. Wilson a contract and committing what will likely be near $125 million to Yu Darvish. Darvish has great upside at age 25 compared to Wilson's contract that takes him through his age 36 season, while Wilson's been dependable the past two years and hasn't put the stress on his arm that most 31-year-old starters have, as he's been a reliever for the majority of his career. The Rangers have opted to forego the reliable option and invest in the unpredictable, but high upside of Yu Darvish.
The most surprising part of this whole situation is that the Rangers never so much as offered Wilson a legitimate contract. Their plan all along was clearly to win the negotiation rights to Darvish, and now that they've done so, the inevitable comparisons between C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish will be made over the next 5 years.
There's no doubt that Yu Darvish's statistics over the past 5 years completely blow C.J. Wilson's out of the water. Darvish has posted ERAs of 1.82, 1.88, 1.73, 1.78 and 1.44 in his 5 professional seasons. He's started between 23 and 28 games in each season, and still topped 200 innings in four of his five seasons. David Schoenfield of ESPN's SweetSpot Blog points out that Darvish's 15 120+ pitch games in 2011 dwarfed Justin Verlander's MLB-best 10 games with 120+ pitches. Japanese pitchers however generally only pitch once a week, which means that Darvish's high-volume performances have to be taken with a grain of salt. Daisuke Matsuzaka had the same track record of throwing over 200 innings annually in Japan, but has battled injuries ever since 2009, when he was 28 years old. Japanese pitchers are not eased along generally, they throw a lot of innings at a young age, unlike most top American pitching prospects. Luckily for the Rangers, Darvish was brought along slowly as a young pitcher:
"Also, unlike Matsuzaka, Darvish was eased into his pro career: he threw 94.1 innings and 149.2 innings in his first two pro years. Matsuzaka, by contrast, threw 180 innings as an 18 year-old rookie — 347.2 in his first two seasons — and set a career high with 240.1 innings in his third. In essence, Darvish has fired fewer bullets."
I suspect the Rangers will be careful with Darvish this year, and ease him into the routine of starting every 5th day. I suspect Darvish will have growing pains this season, but it's reasonable to expect him to completely adjust to the new pitching schedule by 2013 at the latest.
Darvish comes over with six pitches in his arsenal, but most likely will rely on his four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, cut fastball, slider, and a slow curve that can drop to the low 60s. He also throws a changeup, but it's not super effective, so it may get dropped upon his arrival in America, it'll all be up to the Rangers pitching coaches. Regardless, Darvish has a diverse arsenal of weapons, and knows how to keep hitters off balance with them. Darvish's fastball averages around 94 MPH, and as the Fangraphs article referenced earlier astutely points out, only 6 American League starters averaged above 94 MPH on their fastball. Darvish's best put-away pitch seems to be his slider, which generated 19.5% swings and misses last year. Matsuzaka had a deadly slider in Japan, but it's far more hittable in MLB. The New York Daily News points out the differences that make going from Japan to America difficult:
"The two places play with different baseballs — the seams are higher on Japanese balls, making it easier to attain the tight spin that makes breaking balls effective. The strike zones are different. The mounds are slightly higher and less firm in Japan than they are in the majors, a second executive familiar with the Japanese game says."
Darvish's Japanese statistics can be found below:
Darvish's impeccable control and dynamic stuff make him an extremely tough pitcher to prepare for. While Daisuke also posted high strikeout rates in Japan, he worked around the edge of the strike zone far more than Darvish and led to his K/BB rate plummeting state-side. Darvish's highest BB/9 was 2.2, and his K/BB never dropped below 3.75 in any of his 5 seasons, generally hovering in the mid-4 range, which leads me to believe he'll have far better success in MLB. The ERA and WHIP numbers he posted are unbelievable and unlike anything we've ever seen from a Japanese pitcher coming to America. Daisuke is the only comparable, and he never sniffed these elite statistics.
Another recent example of a pitcher going to Japan and then back to MLB is Rangers SP Colby Lewis.
Lewis was a AAA-caliber pitcher in his early MLB career, went to Japan and had success. He posted ridiculous K/BB rates, and posted ERAs below 3 in both seasons. Admittedly he still wasn't very efficient, barely averaging 6 innings per start, but he was effective. Lewis came back to MLB, and we'll just say the end results have been far from the same. His ERA in 2010 was a solid 3.72 but jumped back to 4.40 in 2011, while his strikeout rates dropped and walk rates rose. Lewis has also surrendered far more HRs in Texas during his second MLB stint.
The rotation is set up to be Darvish, Holland, Harrison, Feliz, Lewis in all likelihood. Alexi Ogando and Scott Feldman are solid middle of the rotation options that will remain in the bullpen because there's no rotation spot available for them. The Rangers could look to move one of Lewis, Ogando, or Feldman and see what the market is for them. Another big factor in making this move is the Rangers' great farm system. SS Jurickson Profar and SP Martin Perez are both top-20 caliber prospects, and the rest of the farm is fairly well filled out. If the Rangers traded one of Profar or Perez, they could easily send one of their more expensive contracts along with the player to lighten their payroll, although them utilizing this alternative is doubtful. If for some reason they didn't sign Darvish, they'll get the $50 million back, and do have the prospects and pieces available to go acquire a pitcher like Gio Gonzalez to head their rotation, but that would gut their farm, and isn't at all what the Rangers are trying to do.
GM Jon Daniels and President Nolan Ryan are taking on a definite risk by not offering C.J. Wilson a contract and committing what will likely be near $125 million to Yu Darvish. Darvish has great upside at age 25 compared to Wilson's contract that takes him through his age 36 season, while Wilson's been dependable the past two years and hasn't put the stress on his arm that most 31-year-old starters have, as he's been a reliever for the majority of his career. The Rangers have opted to forego the reliable option and invest in the unpredictable, but high upside of Yu Darvish.
The most surprising part of this whole situation is that the Rangers never so much as offered Wilson a legitimate contract. Their plan all along was clearly to win the negotiation rights to Darvish, and now that they've done so, the inevitable comparisons between C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish will be made over the next 5 years.
There's no doubt that Yu Darvish's statistics over the past 5 years completely blow C.J. Wilson's out of the water. Darvish has posted ERAs of 1.82, 1.88, 1.73, 1.78 and 1.44 in his 5 professional seasons. He's started between 23 and 28 games in each season, and still topped 200 innings in four of his five seasons. David Schoenfield of ESPN's SweetSpot Blog points out that Darvish's 15 120+ pitch games in 2011 dwarfed Justin Verlander's MLB-best 10 games with 120+ pitches. Japanese pitchers however generally only pitch once a week, which means that Darvish's high-volume performances have to be taken with a grain of salt. Daisuke Matsuzaka had the same track record of throwing over 200 innings annually in Japan, but has battled injuries ever since 2009, when he was 28 years old. Japanese pitchers are not eased along generally, they throw a lot of innings at a young age, unlike most top American pitching prospects. Luckily for the Rangers, Darvish was brought along slowly as a young pitcher:
"Also, unlike Matsuzaka, Darvish was eased into his pro career: he threw 94.1 innings and 149.2 innings in his first two pro years. Matsuzaka, by contrast, threw 180 innings as an 18 year-old rookie — 347.2 in his first two seasons — and set a career high with 240.1 innings in his third. In essence, Darvish has fired fewer bullets."
I suspect the Rangers will be careful with Darvish this year, and ease him into the routine of starting every 5th day. I suspect Darvish will have growing pains this season, but it's reasonable to expect him to completely adjust to the new pitching schedule by 2013 at the latest.
Darvish comes over with six pitches in his arsenal, but most likely will rely on his four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, cut fastball, slider, and a slow curve that can drop to the low 60s. He also throws a changeup, but it's not super effective, so it may get dropped upon his arrival in America, it'll all be up to the Rangers pitching coaches. Regardless, Darvish has a diverse arsenal of weapons, and knows how to keep hitters off balance with them. Darvish's fastball averages around 94 MPH, and as the Fangraphs article referenced earlier astutely points out, only 6 American League starters averaged above 94 MPH on their fastball. Darvish's best put-away pitch seems to be his slider, which generated 19.5% swings and misses last year. Matsuzaka had a deadly slider in Japan, but it's far more hittable in MLB. The New York Daily News points out the differences that make going from Japan to America difficult:
"The two places play with different baseballs — the seams are higher on Japanese balls, making it easier to attain the tight spin that makes breaking balls effective. The strike zones are different. The mounds are slightly higher and less firm in Japan than they are in the majors, a second executive familiar with the Japanese game says."
Darvish's Japanese statistics can be found below:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | W | L | GS | CG | IP | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 20 | Nippon Ham | JPPL | Fgn | 15 | 5 | 1.82 | 26 | 12 | 207.2 | 0.828 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 9.1 | |
| 2008 | 21 | Nippon Ham | JPPL | Fgn | 16 | 4 | 1.88 | 24 | 10 | 200.2 | 0.897 | 6.1 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 9.3 | |
| 2009 | 22 | Nippon Ham | JPPL | Fgn | 15 | 5 | 1.73 | 23 | 8 | 182.0 | 0.896 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 8.3 | |
| 2010 | 23 | Nippon Ham | JPPL | Fgn | 12 | 8 | 1.78 | 25 | 10 | 202.0 | 1.015 | 7.0 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 9.9 | |
| 2011 | 24 | Nippon Ham | JPPL | Fgn | 18 | 6 | 1.44 | 28 | 10 | 232.0 | 0.828 | 6.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 10.7 |
Darvish's impeccable control and dynamic stuff make him an extremely tough pitcher to prepare for. While Daisuke also posted high strikeout rates in Japan, he worked around the edge of the strike zone far more than Darvish and led to his K/BB rate plummeting state-side. Darvish's highest BB/9 was 2.2, and his K/BB never dropped below 3.75 in any of his 5 seasons, generally hovering in the mid-4 range, which leads me to believe he'll have far better success in MLB. The ERA and WHIP numbers he posted are unbelievable and unlike anything we've ever seen from a Japanese pitcher coming to America. Daisuke is the only comparable, and he never sniffed these elite statistics.
Another recent example of a pitcher going to Japan and then back to MLB is Rangers SP Colby Lewis.
| Year | Lg | Lev | W | L | GS | IP | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | JPCL | Fgn | 15 | 8 | 2.68 | 26 | 178.0 | 1.000 | 7.6 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 9.3 |
| 2009 | JPCL | Fgn | 11 | 9 | 2.96 | 28 | 176.1 | 0.992 | 8.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 9.5 |
| Fgn (2 seasons) | Fgn | 26 | 17 | 2.82 | 54 | 354.1 | 0.996 | 7.8 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 9.4 |
The point I hope to get across with analysis of Daisuke and Colby Lewis is that every player who comes to MLB from Japan is a cautionary tale and a different case file. The reality is that no one can predict how well Yu Darvish will translate to MLB. However, we do know we've never seen a pitcher this polished come from Japan to MLB, and that's precisely why the Rangers offered him a record-high posting fee over $51 million.
I'd expect Darvish to get close to 6 years, $72-75 million, and skeptics will all question whether the Rangers should have kept Wilson for the $75 million over 5 years that he wanted. The reality is that CJ Wilson pitched about as well as anyone can reasonably ask a Rangers pitcher to do with half of their games in Arlington Ballpark. Wilson posted a high groundball rate the past two years, limited home runs surrendered, and improved his strikeout and walk rates in his 2011 season, only his second as a starter. The scary thing is, Wilson is still improving as well. Wilson obviously is in his prime right now, so it's not likely we'll see much improvement, but it's very possible that he posts 2-3 more years in the 5 WAR range he found from 2010-2011, which would make him fully worth the contract the Angels handed him. Wilson projects more as a number 2 starter according to most scouts, but it's tough for me to see how when he posted low FIPs, and improved in almost every aspect from year 1 to year 2 of his conversion to starting pitcher, all in a true hitter's park.
Wilson's a solid bet to post 2-3 more similar seasons to his 2010 or 2011 seasons, but Darvish has the potential to post 5 such seasons. Darvish has the better strikeout stuff, seemingly better control, but a lot of work to do to adjust to the rigorous MLB schedule. The adjustment to pitching every 5th day
If I had a choice between committing $125 million to Yu Darvish and committing $75 million to CJ Wilson for 5 years, I'd probably take Yu Darvish, although it's a tough decision. The posting fee put towards Darvish doesn't affect the luxury tax level, so the Rangers won't creep anywhere near that level which is a major factor. The Rangers can afford to make a move like this, and it's tough to see Darvish's floor being any worse than a #2 starter in MLB. He has dynamic stuff, incredible durability, and is one of the most talented pitchers we've seen come to MLB in recent years, regardless of his origins. If Darvish can average 200 innings and a low to mid 3's ERA at worst throughout his tenure, the Rangers have to be happy with the signing. That seems like a lot to ask, but an ERA of 3 would more than double his 2011 season in Japan. There's no set Major League Equivalent translation for Japanese baseball to MLB, but Darvish's skills should fit in well and help the Rangers. Darvish will be relied on as the leader of that staff, and from all accounts, he's a stand-up guy and great clubhouse presence.
As for the Rangers' financial situation, throwing this money at Darvish will likely signal the departure of at least one of C Mike Napoli, OF Josh Hamilton and OF Nelson Cruz after this season, all center-pieces of the Rangers offense. Between Michael Young, Adrian Beltre, and Josh Hamilton, the Rangers have $46.25 million committed, and a $20 million average commitment to Darvish would make it $66.25 million committed to 4 players. The positive side of things for the Rangers is that past those 4, there aren't many major commitments. Hamilton or Napoli is surely due a raise in 2013, and Ian Kinsler needs a contract extension, but the team is very young overall besides the few veteran leaders. If the Rangers can commit to a payroll over $100 million (something they have yet to do), they can be serious players for the next few years behind a young, affordable rotation and a dynamic offense led by Mike Napoli, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Adrian Beltre. On the other hand, if the Rangers want to freeze payroll at or below $100 million, a lot of players could be moved in the next year, as most of the Rangers' young players hit arbitration next year and will be due serious raises. The one thing I'm almost sure of is that the Rangers are done with big signings on the market after adding Joe Nathan and Yu Darvish. They just don't have the proven spending history of consistent spenders like the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Mets and others.
The rotation is set up to be Darvish, Holland, Harrison, Feliz, Lewis in all likelihood. Alexi Ogando and Scott Feldman are solid middle of the rotation options that will remain in the bullpen because there's no rotation spot available for them. The Rangers could look to move one of Lewis, Ogando, or Feldman and see what the market is for them. Another big factor in making this move is the Rangers' great farm system. SS Jurickson Profar and SP Martin Perez are both top-20 caliber prospects, and the rest of the farm is fairly well filled out. If the Rangers traded one of Profar or Perez, they could easily send one of their more expensive contracts along with the player to lighten their payroll, although them utilizing this alternative is doubtful. If for some reason they didn't sign Darvish, they'll get the $50 million back, and do have the prospects and pieces available to go acquire a pitcher like Gio Gonzalez to head their rotation, but that would gut their farm, and isn't at all what the Rangers are trying to do.
Overall, I like the risk Daniels is taking with the Darvish move, but in 30 days time, they need to have Darvish signed, no matter the cost. Losing their ace and relying on 5 #3 starters to get them over the hump won't happen now that the Angels have Haren, Weaver, and Wilson. While the Rangers have made two straight World Series, they couldn't take that last step, so it makes sense they'd shake up the team by moving Feliz to the rotation and adding Darvish. It's tough for me to commit to the Rangers as my favorite in the AL West right now, as I need to take a closer look at the pitching and hitting comparisons between Texas and Anaheim, but the Rangers have firmly positioned themselves to once again contend for the AL pennant with this big-name signing.
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