Debris Caution: Brickyard 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.

The Brickyard 400 has been one of the biggest races on the NASCAR schedule since its inception in 1994. It has the second highest purse of any race (behind only the Daytona 500) and always pairs up on the weekend with Indianapolis Motor Speedway's more famous cousin, the appropriately named Indianapolis 500. There are two important factors for Indy, the first is momentum (really, this could be said for any track) and the second is past success. While someone like Jamie McMurray winning last year came as a bit of a surprise, when you dove deeper into the stats it made a lot of sense. McMurray had three top-10 finishes in seven races at IMS.

This year, McMurray hasn't had as much success. He only has two top-10 finishes this year, zero top-5s, and has failed to finish three times. It has been a lost season for J-Mac but he is still quite capable of finishing in the top-10 at Indy given his past success, just don't look for him in Victory Lane come Sunday. His teammate at Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing, Juan Pablo Montoya, is a trendy pick to win and is probably the safer bet of of the EGR stable. Montoya actually won the pole last year and in 2009 he led 116 of 160 and probably would have won if not for a speeding penalty late in the race. I am actually picking Montoya to finally break through and win this week, which would do wonders for his chances of making The Chase.

Another guy I have high hopes for this week would be Tony Stewart. It's kind of shocking that he hasn't won a race this year but he has two top-5s and seven top-10s. He looked to be the biggest threat to Kurt Busch at Infineon but Brian Vickers decided to plow right through him. Last week Smoke was the runner up to Ryan Newman and Indy has been very kind to him. Stewart holds the highest average finish of all drivers in the past ten years at 7.8 (Jeff Gordon is second with 8.3 but that only counts one of his four wins). With five top-5s in nine attempts and two wins (in 05 and 07) look for Tony to be near the front all day.

Speaking of him, Jeff Gordon is another driver who is quite capable of winning. He has won twice this year (more than his past three seasons combined) and no one knows their way around the track better than him. He won the inaugural Brickyard in '94 and went on to win in '98, '01, and '04. In seventeen races he has an average finish of 9.5 and an eye-popping 13 top-10s and nine top-5s (Stewart is ahead of him with an average finish of 8.2 but that is in only 12 starts). Gordon is also the only driver to win the pole more than once (he has three). Look for the #24 to pace the field once again this weekend.

While Gordon has four wins, the only guy with three wins at Indy is his teammate, Jimmie Johnson. Five-Time won the Brickyard in '06, '08, and '09 and seems like as good of a choice as any to take the checkered flag this weekend. Strangely enough, though, he also has 3 DNFs and an average finish of 18.3 in nine starts. While JJ has been the model of consistency during his five year reign, at the Brickyard he is the ultimate risk/reward choice. Hendrick Motorsports as a whole will run well at the Brickyard (Mark Martin has ten top-10s in 17 starts and Dale Earnhardt Jr. is racing for his Chase for the Sprint Cup life right now).

Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have the most wins this season at three a piece. Harvick has been fantastic at IMS, with seven top-10s, four top-5s, and a win in 10 starts. He also finished second last year thanks to some strong closing. Rowdy Busch has only six starts at Indy and four top-10s, including an eighth place finish last year. Kyle is a threat no matter where the Sprint Cup goes but expect only a solid performance. His brother, Kurt Busch, has actually struggled at Indy. He had a dominant stretch of three straight poles before winning at Infineon (his first win at a road course) and has been solid since, with finishes of 14th, 9th, and 10th. At Indy expect a finish a little above his average (18.1), just not his second top-5.

As far as dark horses go, I would say to keep your eye on Greg Biffle. Out of the Roush-Fenway cars he is only second behind Carl Edwards in average finish (11.6 to 13.9) but has finished in the top-10 four times in eight starts. Last year he was actually near the front and more consistent than the two drivers that finished ahead of him. Look for the American Red Cross Ford to surprise some people this weekend and jump back into the thick of The Chase.