Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.
Jimmie Johnson's late race crash may have also tanked his Sprint Cup aspirations. Johnson lost five spots in the Chase and now sits 35 points out. I'll never count out the #48 team, they've proven time and time again that they can come back from anything, but this is different. While reigning as champion Johnson has never made the killer mistakes and could always salvage any sort if issue. Things are now completely out of his hands and that's definitely not a position you want to be in at this point.
However, he's still far better off than my championship pick, Jeff Gordon. I'm finally willing to say it, after being bullheaded the past few weeks (and holding an optimistic outlook that bordered on insanity): he's done. He is absolutely, unequivocally done and I don't understand it. Gordon rebounded to have more wins than his past three seasons combined and everything seemed to be clicking. The Chase schedule was very kind to the #24 and though his splits a bit rough when you go from lifetime down to the past ten years and then down to the past five, he's still one of the most talented drivers in the circuit. It's crazy to expect a single stable to win a championship every year but it is a bit of a disappointment for Hendrick Motorsports to have such a poor showing in the Chase this year. I haven't even touched on Dale Earnhardt Jr. but seriously, who expected him to really make a run?
Their loss, however, is Roush Fenway Racing's gain. Carl Edwards sits atop the points standings and after a win last week Matt Kenseth has vaulted into third. Edwards is scheduled to be a free agent after the season ends but I think a championship would actually make things easier for Roush negotiations. It's awfully hard to leave after winning a title and though they will face stiff competition from Joe Gibbs Racing for his services I don't think there's any way that Jack Roush will let his best driver slip away. That's doubly so if he hoists the Sprint Cup in a few weeks and don't forget that he won the last two races last year (at Phoenix and Homestead respectively).
Before that, though, there's a race this weekend at Talladega. More-so than any race left on the docket, this is the biggest equalizer and wild card left. You can almost always set your clock for there being a huge pile-up that collects a few Chase drivers. If you're Edwards, Kenseth, or Kevin Harvick you obviously want a win, but the next best thing would be to get out of here with a car that's still running and avoid the "Big One." Edwards is the weakest of the three, in 14 starts he has four top-10s, one top-5, and four DNFs. His average finish of 20.9 actually puts him in a dead even tie with his teammate, Greg Biffile, as the lowest among the RFR cars. Harvick is only five points behind Edwards in points and he's actually one of the best in the series at this track. In his past 19 races at the track (which accounts for the past ten years) he has ten top-10s, six top-5s, a win, and the third highest average finish at 13.5 (you could actually say he's first, the two guys ahead of have six combined races [Geoff Bodine has one, Joey Logano has the other five]). I wouldn't be surprised if Harvick ended up leading the points when it's all said and done and he's also a strong, safe bet to win and run well, if for no other reason than he finishes (zero DNFs). Kenseth, for reference, is marginally better than Edwards in his past 19 starts: four top-10s, two top-5s, four DNFs, average finish of 20.7.
Last week's biggest mover in points was Kyle Busch, who gained four spots and now sits only 18 points out of first. He'll still need Edwards to come back a bit because you can only gain so many points if you're both in the top-5 or 10. Talladega isn't exactly Kyle's best track and he's the worst of Chase qualified drivers in average finish (24.2). He has 13 career starts and two top-10s, one of which went for a win, but the biggest number is the DNFs: five. As we all learned last week, one bad crash that drops you from being in third or fourth to thirty something can be devastating. If Busch wants to reverse his Chase misfortunes he absolutely has to get out of this race intact. Right behind him is Tony Stewart and he is the polar opposite. Smoke has eight top-10s, six of which have gone for top-5s, and a win in his past nineteen races. His average finish of 16.4 is among the best at such a volatile track and I think he's also another strong bet to run well on Sunday. He has four DNFs but that's to be expected of anyone who isn't Robo-Harvick at this track (I also want to note that in his career he has six more starts and only a single additional DNF).
Next up are a pair of teammates, Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch. I feel like a broken record but once again we can toss out the book on the Blue Deuce. Kes has five career starts with three being top-10s and a win that came in 2009. He's been a bit all over the place in the Chase but I think he'll have a strong showing on Sunday, perhaps upstaging his own teammate. Kurt, on the other hand, is one of the most consistent drivers at this track. Go ahead and pencil him in for a top-10 (12 in his past 19, highest ratio of anyone in the series), maybe a top-5 (five), but don't get too crazy (zero wins). I think the Penske cars will outdo the Roush cars but I don't expect any of them to win.
After all of that we finally come back to Johnson. Johnson is in purgatory at the moment, being eight points behind Kurt Busch and 25 points ahead of his next closest competitor. He sits 35 points out with five races to go but if there's anyone who can turn the deficit into a cup, it's him. Can he make up seven points over each of the next five races? Absolutely. Will he? Eh, talk to me after this week. He has the most DNFs of anyone in the Sprint Cup the past ten years (his seven are only behind Martin Truex Jr. and Joe Nemechek, who have eight). It was absolutely paramount that JJ have a strong finish last week because this has traditionally been his mulligan track. To his credit, though, nine of the other 12 starts were top-10s, five of those were top-5s, and two were wins.
After Johnson is basically the land of broken dreams. Dale Jr., Ryan Newman, Gordon, and Denny Hamlin are all well out of contention but of course they're all threats to win on any given week. Well, except Dale Jr. but if he is going to finally break his streak it's a very good chance it will be this Sunday. Jr. has four wins in his past 19 starts and that puts him in a tie with Gordon for the most in the series. Newman has nearly as many DNFs as top-10s (six to seven) so just write him off as a guy whose luck will likely land him in a wreck. Hamlin is interesting in a small sample size, 11 starts, four top-10s with three of those being top-5s, but I'll be honest, no one cares. The #11 has done squat this year after almost being the guy who dethroned Johnson last year and anyone who is holding their breath for him to break through this year may as well be committing suicide.
So all of that writing and I didn't pick a winner. Well, I'll be honest, I have a tough time gauging this race. Johnson could spring back to life and win this week, Gordon could surprise everyone and do something relevant in the Chase, Dale Jr. could finally get his first win, one of the Roush cars may surprise everyone, or Kyle Busch could run away with it. Anything can happen at Talladega and because of that I'm going to take the coward's way out and go with the guy who won't fall off a cliff and embarrass me. I'm going to go with the #29 to win and jump to first in points, scoring a huge shift in momentum that could lead to his first Sprint Cup. That's right, I've given Kevin Harvick the kiss of death and doomed him to score his first DNF at Talladega, but hopefully he reverses my fortunes.
As far as non-contenders who can score an upset, I mentioned Logano earlier. In five starts he has four top-10s and he may fall over himself and win this Sunday if he can avoid trouble (the other start was a DNF). I also like Juan Pablo Montoya to do well. Montoya has run well at superspeedways and he has three top-5s in nine starts. Clint Bowyer actually won this race last year but I don't think that anyone is expecting a repeat. These three should be near the top of the scoring pole regardless and don't be surprised if any, or all of them become major factors.
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