Heisman High Men: Week 6

Heisman High Men is a weekly feature that forecasts who would win the Heisman were it picked that week.  As we all know, the main criteria of winning the Heisman are some or all of the following: 

1.) Being the most outstanding player on an elite-level team (read: BCS game potential) 

2.) Compiling insane statistics that are impossible to ignore (i.e. Denard Robinson getting votes in 2010)

3.) Playing in primetime games and having signature "Heisman moments" (example: Cam Newton's run against LSU.)

I'll try to take all three into account the best that I can and come up with a solid projection of the current order of Heisman contenders, as well as projecting how each respective player should perform in their next game. 

Falling: 

RB, Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina: 124 rushes, 663 yards, 9 TDs; 12 receptions, 139 yards, 1 TD

Lattimore was kept pretty quiet by what's a very poor Auburn defense this past weekend, rushing for a mere 66 yards on 17 carries, and he looked mortal.  South Carolina was upset by Auburn, and this probably affected his Heisman contention more than his statistical performance, as his numbers still rival the best RBs in the country.  I fully expected Lattimore to rush for 200 yards as I wrote in my Week 5 preview post, so this is exceptionally disappointing to me.  If South Carolina can manage to win their division in the SEC, Lattimore has a shot at the Heisman.  If not, Trent Richardson will be too much to surmount.  

QB, Andrew Luck, Stanford: 80/112 (71.4%), 1,013 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT; 11 rushes, 53 yards, 1 TD

Andrew Luck is his typical self, dominating nearly every game, and Stanford is squarely in the national titel conversation.  He's still on ballots now, but most of that is based off his performance last year and the fact that he's the #1 pick in next year's NFL Draft.  Luck's performance hasn't yet been transcendent, and his "Heisman moment" is a reception against UCLA.  There are numerous QBs who have outperformed him this year, including Russell Wilson, Kellen Moore, Brandon Weeden and Robert Griffin III, and two of them have signature wins in primetime games.  If Luck dominates against Oregon and leads Stanford to victory, we may as well wrap the Heisman up for him, but until then, he's not a true contender in my mind.

Heisman Ballot

1. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: 96 rushes, 622 yards, 10 TDs; 11 receptions, 148 yards, 1 TD

Like I said last week, the Heisman race early in the season is a volatile one, with players dropping in and out based on singular performances.  Since we only have 4-6 games to judge players on, it's a lot harder to evaluate whole season performances, and players who start slow can enter the race if they come on strong, as Richardson has.  He started very slow in their first two games, but this tidbit from ESPN explains why Richardson is coming on so strong: 

But on the biggest of stages, Richardson has been his best, accounting for 549 yards of total offense and five touchdowns against Penn State, Arkansas and Florida. 

 With a first-year QB that's being severely limited in the passing game, Richardson is the backbone of the offense on a top 3 team, and that's why he'll be a contender the rest of the year if he keeps putting up 100+ yard games.

2. Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin: 83/111 (74.8%), 1,391 yards, 13 TD, 1 INT; 22 rushes, 108 yards, 2 TD

Wilson's candidacy is a reality now after the Badgers pummeled Nebraska on national TV in primetime behind Russell Wilson's brilliant play.  He's the second rated passer in the country (behind Robert Griffin III), and easily leads the nation in yards per attempt (12.5 YPA).  Again, on only 20 passes per game, Wilson is putting up fantastic, efficient stats, and leading his team to national title contention.  Luck's putting up the same stats with almost ten more attempts per game, and against weaker opposition than Nebraska in comparison.  Wilson should put up phenomenal stats yet again this week, as the Badgers face the lowly Indiana Hoosiers.

3. Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State: 142/191 (74.3%), 1,592 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT

Weeden's put up more yards than any other Heisman contender this season, and has done it in only 4 games.  Weeden's video game numbers in conjunction with Oklahoma State's national title contention are sure to keep him in the Heisman picture.  Additionally, WR Justin Blackmon draws a ton of national attention, which helps get Weeden more national showcase opportunities, such as OSU's come-from-behind win against Texas A&M two weeks ago.  Oklahoma State plays Kansas this week, so expect another near 400 yard day and a few TD passes.  Weeden's candidacy will be challenged again next week against Texas.  

4. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: 92/112 (82.1%), 1,308 yards, 18 TD, 1 INT; 36 rushes, 132 yards, 1 TD

The nation's leader in pass efficiency suffered a major blow to his Heisman candidacy as his Baylor Bears lost to the Kansas State Wildcats in a thrilling 36-35 game.  Griffin was far from the reason for the loss, as he went 23/31 with 346 yards and 5 TDs.  What many people may remember unfortunately was Griffin's costly interception to essentially end the game, but keep in mind, Baylor led almost the whole game and wouldn't have had a chance without Griffin's brilliant play.  Griffin's stats through four games are ridiculous, and he only has two more incompletions than touchdown passes this year.  This week he can rehabilitate his image a bit as the Bears face Iowa State at 7:00 PM on Saturday.  He'll keep the stats coming, but can Baylor at least be a decent enough team to keep him in contention?  We'll see by the end of October.  

5.  Tyrann Mathieu, DB, LSU: 35 tackles (4.5 Tackles For Loss), 1.5 sacks; 4 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries for 20 yards and 2 TDs; 4 passes broken up, 1 INT

That statline is a mouthful, as it usually is for defenders, but let me summarize it.  Mathieu leads the Tigers in tackles this year, has accounted for 4 turnovers, and caused more fumbles himself, and also has been a presence behind the offensive line of scrimmage with the 4.5 TFL and 1.5 sacks.  Mathieu has been thoroughly impressive and seems to come up with a signature play every week.  He's likely not long for this list, but what he's done to this point is thoroughly impressive.  LSU vs Florida will be on primetime this week, and if Mathieu causes a turnover or takes a punt return to the house, he may even move up my list.  

Heisman High Men: Week 5

We're finally to the beginning of each conference's respective seasons, and this is where Heisman contenders are truly established.  There's a sizeable group of feasible Heisman candidates right now.  A select group of quarterbacks (Kellen Moore, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Brandon Weeden, Russell Wilson, Denard Robinson, Case Keenum), a group of well-known runningbacks (Marcus Lattimore, Trent Richardson, LaMichael James, David Wilson), and two stand-out receivers (Justin Blackmon and Sammy Watkins).  Tyrann Mathieu, the play-making LSU cornerback has an outside shot, but he'd need to force double digit turnovers, which is highly unlikely.  One month from now, the top 5 will be very solidified for the Heisman, but as of now, it's still open to a bit of interpretation.

1. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: 70/82 (85.4%), 962 yards, 13 TD, 24 rushes for 167 yards, 1 TD

Griffin may not look as impressive in passing yardage, but when a quarterback on an undefeated team has more TD passes than incompletions, he's gotta be mentioned here.  Griffin's game against TCU is still one of the more shocking upsets of the season, and Griffin is legitimately one of the top few quarterbacks in the country.  He's only played 3 games, so he's on pace for 50 TDs and over 4,100 passing yards.  Will he meet either mark?  Probably not.  But he's got a shot at the passing yardage mark, and could easily throw 35-40 TDs in the offense that revolves around his arm and legs.  He'll probably compile 600-800 rushing yards over the year too.  He'll be the Denard Robinson of this year probably; carrying the load of an entire 7-5 or 8-4 team on his back and receiving minor consideration for the Heisman award.  But right now, he's in first place.  His next matchup is against the Kansas State Wildcats, whose defense has been strong this year, but has yet to face a player as good as Robert Griffin.

2. Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina: 107 rushes for 600 yards, 8 TDs, 12 receptions for 139 yards, 1 TD


The South Carolina offense is relying on Lattimore more than ever, as he's on pace to total over 2,000 all purpose yards.  With the passing game out of sync, Alshon Jeffery and Stephen Garcia have failed to establish a consistent connection, and Lattimore has been the bellcow of the offense.  Lattimore runs with extraordinary power and balance and seemingly always breaks the first attempted tackle.  He's on pace to have probably 50 more carries this season than last year, and is also averaging 5.6 yards per carry in 2011 compared to 4.7 last year.  Lattimore will continue to be the centerpiece of the offense, and as long as South Carolina remains in the chase for an SEC title, Lattimore will be one of the leading Heisman contenders.  This week, the South Carolina Gamecocks face Auburn at home.  Auburn's pathetic excuse of a defense will let Lattimore run rampant and total close to 200 yards probably this week, so look for Lattimore to remain near the top of the list next week.


3. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State: 83/105 (79%), 995 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT


Kellen Moore, like Robert Griffin III, has only played 3 games, so he's still averaging 4 TDs and 331.7 yards per game.  The remarkable thing about Moore though is that after losing Titus Young and Austin Pettis to the NFL, the passing offense hasn't skipped a beat.  While Boise State has a fairly average running game (117.7 rushing yards per game) and RB Doug Martin has struggled, averaging a mere 2.6 yards per carry, Kellen Moore and the passing offense have continued where they ended last year.  7 receivers have at least 8 catches this season, showcasing the balance that the offense has.  The offensive line is solid in pass protection, as Kellen has yet to be sacked, but he's also completing 79% of his passes, an impressive feat regardless of the protection.  This week the Broncos take on Nevada, who de-railed their season last year in one of the bigger surprises of the 2010 season.  Look for Moore to post another 300 yard and 4 TD game


4. Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin: 69/91 (75.8%), 1,136 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT, 16 rushes for 91 yards, 1 TD


N.C. State coach Tom O'Brien can say whatever he wants, the fact is, he made a major mistake releasing Russell Wilson from his scholarship and letting him transfer to Wisconsin.  Russell Wilson has been the single most impactful newcomer in the country for any team, and has played with remarkable precision.  The record-holder for most passes thrown between interceptions is rarely letting the ball hit the ground this year. In the power-running offense of Wisconsin, he's managed to average nearly 300 passing yards per game on a mere 23 attempts per game average.  He easily leads the nation's quarterbacks in yards per attempt (12.5)  and is second in QB Rating to Robert Griffin III.  Wilson has made Wisconsin's coaching staff realize they need to place a greater importance on recruiting game-changing quarterbacks rather than game managers.  This week, the Badgers square off with Nebraska in arguably the game of the week.  Should Wisconsin win this game, Wilson's national profile will continue to grow and Wisconsin may vault into the top 5.  This is the first true test of the Wisconsin offense, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against the "Blackshirts".


5. Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State: 142/191 (74.3%), 1,592 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT


Brandon Weeden completely outclassed fellow Heisman contender QB Ryan Tannehill last weekend as the Cowboys pulled out a gutty victory against the Texas A&M Aggies 30-29.  Weeden went 47/60 in the game and threw for over 400 yards.  The play of the 28-year-old senior has led Oklahoma State to a top-5 ranking in some polls' eyes, and to consideration in the national title picture.  Oklahoma State still has plenty of obstacles ahead, including their final game on December 3rd against Oklahoma, but there's no doubt, they have a shot at running the table this year with the high-flying passing game led by Weeden and Justin Blackmon.

Heisman High Men Week 1

Heisman High Men is a weekly feature that analyzes the performance of the top Heisman contenders in the 2011 season.  Every week, I'll rank the top 5 Heisman contenders to this point in the season, show who's rising and falling, and what dark horses still linger in the conversation to get the renowned invitation to New York for the Heisman award ceremony.


1. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor 
Week 1 Stats (vs. TCU): 21/27, 359 yards, 5 TDs; 10 rushes, 33 yards; 1 reception, 15 yards

Robert Griffin was absolutely breathtaking against the TCU Horned Frogs this week, and by all means has earned the top spot on this list.  He dissected the TCU defense systematically and with a surgeon's precision.  Even more impressively, four of his 5 touchdown passes were over 25 yards (35, 28, 14, 64, and 42 yards each respectively).  Griffin was only sacked once, and even got into the game as a receiver on a quirky play, as their receiver Kendall Wright (12 receptions, 189 yards, 2 TDs; also threw a touchdown pass in the first quarter) passed to Griffin for a 15 yard gain.  Griffin's an exceptional athlete, but proved on Friday night that he didn't need to use his legs to be an effective quarterback.  Do I think Griffin will top this list for long?  Not at all, but after week one, Griffin led his team to a major upset and was flawless in doing so.


2. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State 
Week 1 Stats (@ Georgia): 28/34, 261 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Even though Boise State didn't generate much ground through their running game, and was in their first game without WRs Austin Pettis and Titus Young, you sure couldn't tell from Kellen Moore's performance.  Moore was brilliant, spreading the ball to nine different receivers, none of which caught more than 6 passes.  While the receivers were largely taken out of the game, Moore focused on hitting receivers over the middle and used TE Kyle Efaw and big WR Matt Miller quite a bit.  His stats may not be as impressive, numbers-wise, but he completed 82% of his passes, and led Boise State to what may be their toughest win of the season.  Moore gets a boost undoubtedly from the quality of the opponent, but he still performed like a Heisman finalist nonetheless.

3. Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
Week 1 Stats (vs. Northern Arizona): 34/42, 412 yards, 5 TDs

Foles leads the nation in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and is near the top in completion percentage among starting quarterbacks, so he makes it onto the list.  Foles and his top WR Juron Criner both have NFL futures, and could vault each other to Heisman candidacy.  Criner caught 6 balls for 151 yards and a TD in the game, and Foles was near perfect.  This week, Foles and the Wildcats have a major test against the Oklahoma State Cowboys on a Thursday night national TV game.  Should Arizona prevail, Foles will be vaulted onto a national stage, and start getting Heisman pub, even if it's just for the month of September.  I don't expect Foles to remain in the top 5 all year, or to end up here at year's end, but after one week, rankings are very volatile.


4.  Robert Woods, WR, USC
Week 1 Stats (vs. Minnesota): 17 receptions, 177 yards, 3 TDs

Woods caught everything thrown his way (even using his helmet on one play), and was the most productive receiver of the weekend in receptions and receiving TDs.  USC barely defeated Minnesota, and that's a scary sign for those who projected USC to return to glory this year.  This team isn't elite, and as such, Woods doesn't have much of a chance at the Heisman this year, unless he's the Justin Blackmon of last year, who puts up stats like this every game.


5.  Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
Week 1 Stats (vs. Tulsa): 35/47, 375 yards, 1 TD

Tulsa is a respectable team, and Landry Jones was at the top of my preseason list, so I'll keep him in the top 5 for now.  Jones was efficient and effective against Tulsa, but most of the touchdowns went to the RBs in the red zone, as RB Dominique Whaley scored three from inside the 10 yard line, and Brennan Clay scored a touchdown from 11 yards out.  Jones' TD totals will inflate in the coming weeks as it becomes more necessary to convert third downs, so expect him to finish with near 38 TDs again, just like the 2010 season.


Rising:


WR Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma), Michael Floyd (Notre Dame), Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State):  These are quite possibly the three best wideouts in the nation, and all of them performed as such in their season debuts.  Broyles caught 14 balls for 158 yards and 1 TD, Michael Floyd caught 12 balls for 154 yards and 2 TDs, and Blackmon piled up 144 yards on 8 receptions.  They should all log 100 catches and about 1,500 yards this year, so their teams' performances will be what separates them (read: Michael Floyd is not going to get Heisman consideration.


QBs Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M), Case Keenum (Houston): Ryan Tannehill was flawless against SMU, going 21/26 for 246 yards and 2 TDs.  Every incompletion was a smart decision, and I was thoroughly impressed with his pocket presence and escapability.  He's going to be in the conversation throughout the season, the same way Andrew Luck will be.  Case Keenum went 30/40 for 310 yards and a touchdown against UCLA in Houston's victory.  That was their biggest roadblock in all likelihood, and Keenum was very solid against a Big Six defense.  His numbers will inflate against C-USA competition, so his Week 1 performance shows he's completely back from his injury, and will challenge every major NCAA passing record.


RBs Cyrus Gray (Texas A&M), Marcus Lattimore (South Carolina), Vick Ballard (Miss. St.):  Gray ran with great patience and discipline on his way to 131 yards and 2 TDs against SMU.  His biggest roadblock?  The backup RB, Christine Michael (85 yards and 2 TDs).  Gray wouldn't be the starter this year, but Michael got injured last year and gave way to the dynamic Gray.  Gray will stay in contention as long as A&M stays undefeated or in BCS contention.  Lattimore ran for 123 yards and 3 TDs in the win over East Carolina on Saturday.  He looked pretty good, and this is about what we can expect all year.  If Lattimore puts up a similar effort against Georgia, who bottled up Boise State's running game, he'll be pretty tough to keep out of the top 5 next week.  Vick Ballard ran for 166 yards and 3 TDs on only 10 carries in Mississippi State's blowout of Memphis.  Ballard is a supreme talent in the backfield and will be heavily leaned upon in the SEC, as they run the ball quite a bit.  Ballard probably won't stay in contention, but it's week 1, many of the names here won't have much staying power.


Falling:


RBs LaMichael James (Oregon), Trent Richardson (Alabama), Montee Ball/James White (Wisconsin):  James only managed 54 yards on 18 carries as Oregon was dominated by LSU's defense.  Unless Oregon wins out, and LaMichael goes for big games in Oregon's last 12 games, he's out of Heisman talks.  Trent Richardson ran for a mere 30 yards on 13 carries against Kent State.  He did manage three touchdowns, but still, he needs to post about 1,600 yards in all likelihood if he's going to garner Heisman attention.  Additionally, Alabama's QB situation looks very iffy, and the team may not be good enough for him to get consideration for the award.  Montee Ball, James White, and Russell Wilson all ran for 60 yards against UNLV, and the predictable has happened, Bret Bielema is going with a split back approach that is going to prevent either from legitimate Heisman contention.


QBs Darron Thomas (Oregon), Andrew Luck (Stanford):  Darron Thomas needed 54 pass attempts to manage 240 yards passing, and only threw one TD along with his one INT.  The LSU game may have broken his and LaMichael James' Heisman contention dreams in one fell swoop.  Andrew Luck was taken before game's end, and only threw for 171 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1.  Luck obviously is a major contender for the award, and his performance will pick up once he plays real teams.  Luck's contention will be based more on his team's performance than his compiling stats.  Last season he only threw for 3,338 yards and 32 TDs, but finished as runner-up as Stanford finished 4th overall in the BCS polls.


Dark Horse:


QB Geno Smith (West Virginia):  Smith looked fantastic in his abbreviated performance against Marshall on Sunday.  The Holgorsen offense spread the ball all over the field and was looking good in the first real trial run.  Smith looked efficient and made fantastic decisions all game long, including scrambling for two big first downs.  You'd like for Smith to log more than 249 passing yards and 2 TDs, but this is a good start, and his performance should improve further as his familiarity with the offense increases.