Showing posts with label Roundtable. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roundtable. Show all posts

9/5/11

NFL Playoff Predictions: Roundtable

On Sat, Sep 3, 2011 at 12:08 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:


So, Bryan, we meet again. This time we're here to chitchat about our picks for the upcoming NFL season. Let's get some of the gimmes out of the way first, starting with both North divisions. I don't see any way that the Steelers and Packers don't run away with those crowns. Sure, the Ravens are a good team and will push Pittsburgh but I just think that the Steelers are a more complete team. The passing game may be the best it has been under Big Ben and Mike Wallace could be the best receiver in the AFC (at the least he's close to Reggie Wayne and Andre Johnson). Rashard Mendenhall may not have the fantasy buzz of Ray Rice but he's still a top flight running back. I don't think I should bother putting words to their defense, but everyone knows they are really, really good.

Then in the NFC, the Packers are coming off of a Super Bowl victory and they're even better than last year. Granted a lot of that is having an offseason to get Jermichael Finley, Charles Woodson, and Donald Driver, among others, healthy. The Lions seem to be a trendy pick to make the playoffs pending a healthy Matt Stafford but you'd have to be out of your mind to pick them over the Pack. The Bears won the division last year but no one really believes in them. Jay Cutler will get sacked another ten trillion times and Lance Briggs is unhappy about his contract. Again. Then there's the Vikings, who still have Adrian Peterson, but for some reason that entire offensive line has gone to crap. Losing Sidney Rice is huge, but who knows if Donovan McNabb could even get the ball to him at this point in his career.

So what say you? Are you a Colt McCoy follower? Maybe you think the Bengals will be able to correctly dress themselves and win a game or two? You're from Detroit, I'm sure you have something to say about the Lions, too.

8/1/11

NFL Free Agency: Roundtable Part 2

On Sun, Jul 31, 2011 at 9:47 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:

We touched on teams already and which teams have done well for themselves so far, but let's get more specific now Scott.  With hundreds of moves being made, some absolutely have to jump out at you for one reason or another.  Like I alluded to in Part 1, I'm absolutely stunned by the massive contracts that players who aren't elite have been handed.  Not only free agents, but even players acquired in trades have gotten hefty contracts too.  Which players do you think have been overpaid the most thus far in the 2011 offseason?

On Sun, Jul 31, 2011 at 10:13 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:

I think Eric Weddle becoming the NFL's highest paid safety is a severe overpayment. I get that AJ Smith had to retain him and Weddle is a fantastic young safety, but is he really the best in the league? Your casual football fans probably don't even know who he is, and though that isn't a great barometer of talent, I bet you they could at least guess many other positions correctly. Weddle has only been to one Pro Bowl and I just don't know if he can live up to that kind of contract.

Crazy as this may sound, Peyton Manning's contract bothers me. Sure, he took a pay cut from what Jim Irsay had publicly said he was worth but the fact that all $90 million of that is guaranteed if he just passes his physical? Even for one of the greatest to play the position, at age 35 coming off of neck surgery I just don't get it. I can't doubt Peyton's durability or track record and I know we may look back on this post one day with a good laugh after Peyton has obliterated every quarterback record there is, but I would be a bit antsy if I were a Colts fan. Don't give me this "it allowed the team to retain Joseph Addai!" mess, either. Everyone knows if Peyton wanted $150 million and told Irsay to bring back Addai at all costs so there wouldn't be anymore "God Dammit Donald" moments, the Colts would kick over some rocks and find the money.

Finally, since three's company I want to go out on a bit of a limb. I know you are probably raring to go and have some guys in mind so I am going to put on my swami cap and peek into the future. I predict that Antonio Cromartie will have a Brinks truck backed up to his house by someone. With every other major corner signed and the Jets desperate to retain his services, it's going to be a mess. The Redskins and Raiders have been in on the bidding and I can't imagine what the Jets would have to bring to the table to outbid Al Davis and Dan Snyder.

Who do you have, Bryan? Do you think any other free agents have broken the bank?

On Mon, Aug 1, 2011 at 10:22 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:

Looks like Cromartie didn't get overpaid too heavily actually at 4 years, $32 million.  Agreed on Weddle, but to be fair, Eric Berry is the highest paid NFL safety (6 years, near $60 million) as a function of last year's elevated rookie wages.  Still your point stands, Weddle is a very solid safety, but not elite enough to command that kind of paycheck.  And guaranteeing any player their entire contract for 5 years is insanity, I don't care if he's as durable as Peyton Manning, one bad injury and he's done.

You know that I didn't like the Charles Johnson signing too much, that's the worst contract yet I think this year.  Johnson had a great season last year, but rewarding one 11.5 sack season with a $72 million deal is pretty borderline crazy.  He's young, and the Panthers had to pay a premium because... well, they're the Panthers, not exactly a free agent destination, but it's still pretty tough to justify when they didn't pay Peppers last year.  In the same division, while I understand Tampa Bay has a lot of spending to do to get near the salary cap, they didn't have to go and pay their punter Michael Koenen $19 million over 6 years.  Based on the fact that he may only be on the field 70-80 times this season and he's making $3 million, that's ridiculous.

Kevin Kolb got the Matt Cassel treatment, and got a huge contract right upon being acquired, and I think they overpaid quite a bit.  Even Kolb was probably stunned when they offered him $63 million over 5 years.  He has yet to prove anything of substance, playing a couple games each year and having flashes of greatness as well as "God Dammit Kevin" moments.  He makes Larry Fitzgerald happy, so that's good, but they paid him $63 million and traded away their best corner and a 2nd rounder.  Far too much was invested in Kolb unless he is the next big thing at quarterback, so they better hope he is exactly that. 

As far as team friendly contracts, the Giants have made away like bandits so far.  Steve Smith and Mathias Kiwanuka both coming back on one year deals due to their injuries last year ends up looking great for the Giants, because both players need to build their stock back up.  Especially given the rumors of trading Osi Umenyiora, bringing back Kiwanuka was a huge deal.  I think they would have been well-served trying to sign some bigger names in addition, but they got good deals on both players rehabbing their value.  

The Lions got Stephen Tulloch on a one year deal for a mere $3.25 million, giving their linebacking unit some legitimacy, a big signing for them. They also re-signed Chris Houston at what I assume is a low rate as well.  The linebacking corps of Deandre Levy, Stephen Tulloch, and Justin Durant is at least average, if not slightly above average, so that's huge for the Lions. They don't need stars there when their defensive front is so powerful.  Tulloch gravitated towards his former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz in a big way and the Lions capitalized.  My opinion on their offseason has done a full 180 now, because Tulloch was who they needed.

Other one-year deals were great bargains as well, such as the Plaxico deal with the Jets (1 year, $3.017 million), and Cedric Benson re-upping with the Bengals for one more season.  Those moves involved very little risk, but surely some moves this offseason are extremely risky.  Which signings or trades do you think have the highest risk involved?

On Sun, Aug 1, 2011 at 11:55 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:

Any time a running back is nearing 30 is a risk. The Panthers threw caution to the wind and signed the 28 year old DeAngelo Williams to a 5 year, $43 million contract with $21 of it guaranteed. You and I have had discussions about this and I completely understand the rational behind it but this is more of an issue with the position than the player himself. We're all use to players being in their prime in their mid to late 20s, but with running backs it's the polar opposite. They're starting to come down on the other end of the bell curve and it doesn't help that DeAngelo has been nicked up.
I mentioned Peyton before, so I won't go too far in depth again, but I think his contract is also a risk. If he plays out the length of his contract (big if) you are paying for his 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 year old seasons. I don't care who you are or even if you're the greatest kicker to ever walk the Earth, I don't want any player during those years.

To continue my unorthodox picks, I think the biggest risk of the entire offseason is the Bears playing chicken with Olin Kreutz. Reportedly he is unhappy with Jerry Angelo's approach to talks because he was first offered a 50% pay cut and then told to make a decision in an hour. Earlier in the offseason he was getting calls from the 49ers but said he doesn't want to play for any team other than Chicago so now he may just retire. If the Bears lose Kreutz I cannot even begin to think of how many times Jay Cutler will be bulldozed this season.

We have talked quite a bit about the Kolb for Rodgers-Cromartie and a second rounder but that trade is immediately what I thought of when reading your email. I understand an above average quarterback is more valuable than just about anything in the NFL. Quarterbacks are marketable, they're usually the faces of their franchise, and they shelf life is much lengthier than a lot of positions if you can keep them upright. However, to trade a young, ball hawking corner (yes, he does make a lot of misreads and there are a lot of times you want your DB to just knock it down instead of going for the pick) and a second rounder for a guy with seven starts? Really? I don't see how it makes a lick of sense. I guess you're right, it makes Fitzgerald happy (though if I remember correctly he was clamoring for Marc Bulger before the lockout) and Kolb may be just good enough to win the NFC West.

On Sun, Aug 1, 2011 at 4:54 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:

Those are all definitely hefty risks.  I want to get Seattle in the mix here, because they're another team that like Carolina, isn't a free agent destination and has to overpay for players.  I can understand bringing in Tarvaris Jackson, but not as the starter and with Charlie Whitehurst as a backup.  That's beyond risky, it's a surefire way to ensure you're not making the playoffs.  Additionally, they paid DT Brandon Mebane as much as the much better Cullen Jenkins (5 years, $25 million for both) to make sure he stayed, because they don't have much of a pass rush anywhere else.  My biggest problem with their free agency was Sidney Rice though.  I know you love your former Gamecock WR, but I think you'd freely admit that his injury history and one transcendent season is troubling.  He's been pretty quiet unless he had a superb quarterback.  For some odd reason he really wants to work with Tarvaris Jackson again, so we'll see how that pans out.  Unless he's producing like he did in 2009, he's not worth $8 million a year at all.  They also lost C Chris Spencer to the Bears (there goes the playing chicken with Kreutz), so that eliminates that problem for the Bears, as Spencer is a solid center, but opens a new hole for the Seahawks.  I have to say I just don't understand what the hell Pete Carroll is doing.

Carolina paid Charles Johnson $12 million a year through 2016, a very huge risk.  Only $30 million is guaranteed, but that's a lot of money.  MLB Jon Beason is now the highest paid middle linebacker in the league at 5 years, $50 million, but he's at least one of the best at his position.  Johnson can't claim to be that yet.  They paid an old Olindo Mare 4 years and $12 million to kick, when Jon Kasay was a fine option in-house.  Again, I understand the need to overpay players because the Panthers aren't an attractive organization, but at a point, you need to know to cut bait in negotiations.  While the Panthers made the moves they needed to, and I respect them for that, I still question the money they're throwing around.

7/30/11

NFL Free Agency: Roundtable Part 1

On Fri, Jul 29, 2011 at 2:44 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:

As expected, a rush of free agent signings, trades, and roster moves has consumed the NFL. It seems as though you can't so much as sign on to Twitter or your favorite message board without something (usually somethings) happening. The Eagles just got Nnamdi Asomugha out of nowhere, and still, some of the biggest names are still available (Nnamdi Asomugha, Randy Moss, Plaxico Burress, Braylon Edwards) so we have more than enough to kick off our NFL coverage.

Bryan, I know your team has to figure out just what to do with DeSean Jackson. I also know that they have been linked to Plaxico though right now they seem to have fallen behind the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers. Philly also traded your boy, Kevin Kolb, for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second rounder in what, at least for now, looks like a complete steal and then added on Nnamdi Asomugha just now.  Besides your own team's drastic improvements and rumblings what has caught your eye so far?

On Fri, Jul 29, 2011 at 8:09 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:

Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie?  I sure hope your tight ends are phenomenal, or you're not passing on us.  The Kolb trade and consequent Vince Young signing is also absolutely one of the best moves this offseason.  Yeah, yeah, I'm an Eagles fan, but it's tough to deny that acquiring a 2nd round pick and an above-average corner with tools to be a top ten corner in the NFL for an unproven quarterback isn't unbelievable value.  And to sign a quarterback who wins most of his games to play backup is phenomenal.  The Eagles OL is shaky (especially with Winston Justice currently on PUP), and that's the reason Vick succeeded, he could move the pocket and buy our OL time.  Signing Jason Babin was a good move I thought as well, the Eagles' DL coach Jim Washburn (former Titans DL coach) coached up Babin and recruited him to Philly.  They still need a LB but I digress, I'm pleased so far with the offseason, and I'd say the Eagles are the winners right now.

What absolutely blew me away was the money going out to all these players.  Charles Johnson for 6 years, $72 million.  Santonio Holmes for 5 years, $50 million.  Kevin Kolb for 5 years, $63 million. The list goes on and on, and while Holmes' makes sense, player value in free agency is more inflated than ever.  Gotta give credit to De Smith and the NFLPA, because this is exactly what they counted on.  Teams who spent no money in the uncapped season last year like the Panthers and Buccaneers have to make outlandishly overpaid signings in order to hit the minimum.  While the latter years seem like a bit more of a win for the owners, these first few years of the CBA heavily benefit the players. 

Although the Panthers are throwing money around like it's play money, I still like their offseason.  Charles Johnson WAS one of the top defensive ends available, and he got the money he would have gotten elsewhere, plus extra because who wants to stay in Carolina?  Re-signing Thomas Davis and Jon Beason was huge, they're both solid players in their primes, although making Beason the highest paid MLB in football is a bit ridiculous.  I love the trade for Greg Olsen too, only surrendering a 3rd rounder.  When healthy (big if with this group), a skill position corps of DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Jeremy Shockey (yeah he's still there), Greg Olsen, Steve Smith is very solid.  The Panthers definitely need another WR on the outside, but they've got a solid O-Line and almost a complete group of skill players.  Cam Newton should have enough to work with to do decently this year, but he'll still have major growing pains.

And then the other team I'm liking so far is your New England Patriots.  It's funny because not two hours ago, the Patriots were bandied about as having the best offseason and the Super Bowl favorites, and now in one fell swoop the Eagles have taken all the headlines.  The acquisitions of Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth for 3 total late picks of the 12,000,000 the Patriots trade down for every year is a genius move.  I'll let you go into further detail there, but those moves really stand to improve them quite a bit.  I'm a bit concerned about how many players they released, but it's tough to doubt the New England way after all these years.  How do you feel about the Patriots' offseason so far and what other teams do you think did well for themselves?  And in contrast to the Eagles, Panthers, and Patriots, what teams have completely whiffed this offseason?  

On Fri, Jul 29, 2011 at 8:40 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:

When it comes to the Pats, none of their subtractions are that major except Ty Warren. Just a week or two ago he was saying to all of the Patriots reporters how healthy he was and how he was in the fantastic shape and blah blah blah. All of a sudden it came out that he actually failed his physical and it wasn't related to the surgery he had this past year. I don't really know what's going on there. Maybe some of these guys will return for smaller cap hits but I'm going ahead in thinking if they were cut it was for a very good reason.

Ochocinco is a fantastic upgrade. I know a lot of Pats fans want Randy Moss but it's not going to happen (as much as I wish it could). Deion Branch is a great #2 and Brady loves him, plus having Welker back in the slot makes a lot of difference. This will mean that Brandon Tate is fourth on the depth chart and may very well end up being the best downfield threat on the team. I'm excited about Chad and love the guy, even if I know that Revis completely dominates him. When it comes to Haynesworth I'm unsure what to feel. I am not a big believer in this team chemistry stuff but I just have to wonder what he has left in the tank. Maybe he'll have a big year, maybe he'll just show up against the Redskins, maybe he'll show up too fat to wash himself unless he uses soap on a stick. It's a gamble and he may very well be the best pass rusher the Patriots could get.

When I emailed you this morning no one knew Nnamdi would end up an Eagle. The ten-fifteen minute window where he went from Jet to Cowboy to Eagle was one of the greatest things I have ever seen on Twitter. I got wrapped up in it but it's always exciting when the biggest free agent is involved. Thankfully my team has not one, but two great tight ends that can hold their own. Kudos to you, though.

As far as my biggest losers, I would have to say that there are a few that stick out. The Bengals trade away Chad but also lost Jonathan Joseph. Tack on the fact that Mike Brown is stubborn and refuses to trade a valuable asset in Carson Palmer (well, valuable as in a second or third rounder) and it looks ugly in Cincy (don't forget that Terrell Owens also tore his ACL). The Chicago Bears also look to be losers so far. They were rumored to be trading Olin Kreutz to the 49ers and if there is one thing you know about the Bears, it's that they totally have offensive line depth to spare. I just saw an Adam Schefter tweet that said they have signed Vernon Gholston and Roy Williams and that has to be literally the most depressing pair of signings I can think of. Tack on the loss of Danieal Manning and it looks as though the Bears won't be making the NFC Championship Game again this year.

Out of everyone, though, my biggest loser is the Cleveland Browns. Eric Wright took less money to go to the freakin' Detroit Lions. Eric Weddle left them standing at the altar. Charles Johnson took video game money to go to Carolina. There were rumors that Ray Edwards was on their radar and also took less money to go to Atlanta (let me say that the Browns have said they were never in, but who knows at this point). Their biggest targets this offseason look to be Terrell Owens (who, as I said, is coming off of a torn ACL) and using a supplemental pick on Terrelle Pryor. Between the Bengals and the Browns it's no wonder that the Ravens and Steelers walk into the playoffs. Hell, they could probably load their entire rosters on a segway and still come in first and second in that division.

That's enough from me, though. If there is anything I missed on those teams feel free to add on to the terrible three. What teams other teams do you think should have hoped for the lockout to continue?

 On Sat, Jul 30, 2011 at 11:03 AM, Bryan McWethy wrote:

You pretty much nailed it on the head, the team I would add to the losers thus far is the Detroit Lions.  With all this hype as an up-and-comer and hopeful playoff contender, they've been absolutely silent in free agency.  I don't care how good the D-Line of Kyle Vanden Bosch, Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and Cliff Avril is, that's not going to stop teams from passing on your god awful linebacker and secondary units.  They haven't even re-signed mediocre #2 CB Chris Houston, so I'm not liking what I see there.  They're talking with recently released LB Nick Barnett (formerly of the Packers), and that would be a great signing if he stays healthy. 

I think Denver really squandered an opportunity too by not being more active.  DeAngelo Williams was there for the taking, and coach John Fox couldn't convince Denver to jump on the opportunity.  Knowshon Moreno looked like a stud coming out of college, but he simply hasn't lived up to the hype.  Additionally, they waited too long to trade Kyle Orton, so Miami went and signed Matt Moore instead as a free agent to compete with Chad Henne.  Now, Tebow isn't getting snaps with the first team, and his development is further stunted.  This is either damning to Tebow as a sign that John Elway doesn't buy into him as the franchise quarterback, or complete mismanagement by the Broncos.  They have little else to flaunt this offseason, as I can't think of any free agent signings they've made besides Willis McGahee (which is a decent one, but he's not a starter).   

I think two teams quietly doing a solid job are the Jaguars and Rams.  The Rams got Quentin Mikell pretty cheap compared to other safeties this year, and he's graded out as the best safety in the NFL by Pro Football Focus in 2008 and 2010, that's going to help them a lot.  Adding Harvey Dahl at guard is a great addition, and Mike Sims-Walker is an overlooked WR who will emerge as the #1 of the group, and they only had to give him one year.  I don't think they're done, but I'm impressed so far.  The Jaguars are really addressing their run defense, signing S Dawan Landry and LB Paul Posluszny right out of the gates to big deals.  Neither will lead a defense, but both are solid players in the bigger picture.  They also picked up speedy LB Clint Session from the Colts, a good signing that not many will notice.  They've done a good job, but they still need offensive weapons.  Mike Thomas is a good receiver, but not a #1, he's probably better in the slot due to his diminutive size. 

There's still plenty of time left, but the offseason picture is beginning to clear up.  In the next post, we'll look at risks, under-the-radar signings, and camp holdouts this offseason that look to have a major effect.
 
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