Debris Caution: AdvoCare 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


I remember when Atlanta Motor Speedway was rebuilt in 1997. In case you don't, basically the frontstretch and the backstretch were swapped in an attempt to standardize the track like other ovals that Speedway Motorsports owns. There were some other alterations as well but that change still sticks out to me. To say that Atlanta is a tradition on the NASCAR circuit would be an understatement and this track in particular has a special tie to yours truly. After the 2009 move to Labor Day weekend this became my sort of "birthday" track. Attention NASCAR: I would have preferred a road course, but a night race is alright, I won't even ask for a gift receipt.

Since my birthday is on the second, let's start with the Blue Deuce. I know, I know, I've been talking about Brad Keselowski for weeks now. Then again, how can you not mention a guy who has finished first, second, third, and first in the past month? Even though he has two starts in the Sprint Cup (one DNF and an average finish of 30.5) and four in the Nationwide Series (two top-10s, one of which was a top-5) he's still a contender to win this week. Keselowski has bolted up the standings so quickly that he is now only 21 points out of tenth place. He's already locked in to The Chase as a wild card so look for the team to potentially take some risks this week and just go for the win again. Don't bet against Kes right now and expect a top-5, if not top-3 performance.

If there is one guy right now that needed to see Atlanta Motor Speedway, it was Tony Stewart. From my browsing yesterday and this morning it seems like every blogger and expert is writing off Stewart's chances, saying that he's headed in the wrong direction and some even say he may miss The Chase. With two races left before the cutoff and his lead all but gone (as I said, 21 ahead of Kes but only 22 ahead of Clint Bowyer) it seems there is a good chance. But here is what you need to know: in 24 career starts, Stewart has an average finish of 11.6 at Atlanta. He has nine top-5s in that span and 12 top-10s and he absolutely has to have a strong finish on Saturday. Richmond looms next week and that is easily Bowyer's best track. I expect a top-10 finish, maybe even higher, and if he doesn't watch his mirror all race for the #2 and #33 he may pull a reversal and just win the whole thing.