Debris Caution: GEICO 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


This week the schedule heads north to Illinois for the GEICO 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. This is the first race in the Chase and many of the contenders have past success at this track. Though it's still race number one in the "postseason" there is still plenty at stake and a bad finish at this track can potentially sink someone's chances. Before I get to the race preview here are my picks to finish in the top-5 at the end of the year.

5) Kyle Busch - "Rowdy Kyle" supposedly "matured" this year and has raced with more patience. I'm not quite sure if I believe the maturation part but the results have shown on the track. Like Harvick, he has four wins and his 16 top-10s are second (only one behind Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson) and 13 top-5s lead all drivers. The thing about Kyle is this: he still tends to be his worst enemy. He has the most DNFs of any driver in the Chase (three) and only has one win in five Chase appearances. I still think he's a year away from fully rounding to form but he's still a threat to win anywhere, anytime.


4) Carl Edwards - He has been the model of consistency all year. Those 17 top-10 finishes and 12 top-5s show that he is almost always in a race even if he doesn't have the car to beat. Along with Ryan Newman they are the only two drivers in the Chase not to record a single DNF. In Carl's six times as a Chase driver he has won eight times, which is second all-time. I don't think he can pull off a championship for Roush but he should finish in the top-5 and ahead of his teammate, Matt Kenseth.

3) Kevin Harvick - Harvick would have won last year's Sprint Cup under the old points system with weeks to spare. This year he heads into the Chase tied with Kyle Busch for the lead (thanks to his four victories) and with a huge boost in momentum coming off of last week's victory at Richmond. Harvick only has two wins in his five Chase appearances but as we all know, momentum can cancel everything in the numbers column. I don't think this will be the last time we see Harvick leading in the points during the Chase but I do think he will fall just short.


2) Jimmie Johnson - Surprised? Don't be. Yes, Jimmie has 19 career Chase wins. He is also the only driver to make the Chase all eight times since its inception. As though a switch has been flipped on, when it comes to crunch time, Jimmie is nearly unstoppable. However, something seems a bit off this year. Even though he has 17 top-10s and 11 top-5s, he has only won once this year and that was way back in May. When he wins his sixth title I'll probably feel silly for posting this but for right now just call it a hunch.


1) Jeff Gordon - He's back. After watching just how dominant Gordon has been, even in races where he didn't have the best car and didn't win, I just have to think this is the year he gets that elusive fifth championship. He's already won three times this year and he has 10 top-5s (to go with 14 top-10s). It doesn't hurt that coming into the Chase he has finished 2nd, 6th, 13th, 6th, 3rd, 1st, and 3rd. Everyone talks about Brad Keselowski's amazing run but Gordon's has been just as great, if not better. I'm sure that Hendrick Motorsports wouldn't mind if the Sprint Cup found its way back to their once again by way of the 24.