Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.
I guess I'm cursed. Heading into Sunday's race at Talladega it seemed that Kevin Harvick was going to be a virtual lock for a top-10 finish at least. If nothing else he had avoided the big wrecks and always came out unscathed. Well, we all know how that turned out and even though it was a Richard Childress Racing car in Victory Lane that did little to improve my mood. Harvick has sunk like a stone to fifth and though he's not out of it, he's currently in limbo at 26 points out of first. He's the last of the drivers that have a realistic chance but it's at the longest of shots.
With the Sprint Cup series heading to Martinsville this week it seems that we are going to see a Jack Roush championship for the first time since 2004. Kurt Busch won the very first Nextel Cup and the previous year it was Matt Kenseth who took home the final Winston Cup. Right now Carl Edwards is points leader and his closest competitor is Matt Kenseth who is 14 points out. Just about the only thing I've gotten right in this Chase has been that I thought Edwards would be the highest finishing Roush car but knowing my luck we'll see Kenseth make a run starting this week. Edwards hasn't found much success at Martinsville, with only four top-10s in 14 career starts, one of those going for a top-5, and an average finish of 16.9. However, if there's anything we have learned about Edwards it's that this year he is content to put in a strong finish even if he isn't competing for a win. His finishes in the Chase has been 4th, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 3rd, and 11th and he hasn't been a threat to really win any of those races. That's the mark of a champion-to-be but he has to continue the trend with the man who made consistency a bad word nipping on his heels.
Kenseth has been more up-and-down than Edwards in the Chase. His finishes so far are 21st, 6th, 5th, 4th, 1st, and 18th last week. Even with that run of four top-5s he barely made a dent in Edwards' lead. Right now he's in second mostly because the other drivers around him (Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart) have had some bad finishes. Kenseth has never won in 23 starts at Martinsville and he only has seven top-10s, two top-5s, and an average finish of 15.8. Even with the trends going against them at this track it's highly likely that we'll see both of them in the top-10. I don't think either of these two will challenge for the win but I don't think anyone will jump up and surpass either of them in the points. Then again, if Edwards has a DNF here it leaves the door wide open for anyone to jump up and make this thing exciting.
Brad Keselowski and Tony Stewart are only 18 and 19 points behind Carl Edwards respectively and represent the two best chances to have a non-Roush championship. Kes has only raced three times in the Sprint Cup at Martinsville and he has an average finish of 13.7 with one top-10. Stewart has two wins but none of those have come in the last five years and his recent finishes (16.3 average finish) are off the pace of his all-time success (13.9 average finish, 13 top-10s in 25 starts). Both of these drivers know if they want to gain even an inch of ground that they have to finish in the top-5 or win and I think that the both of them could gamble a bit. Stewart is more likely to take a risk but I don't doubt that if Brad is in a spot to win the race that he wouldn't stay out on a late pit stop sequence. Both of them should be near the front mixing it up with the #99 and #17 but I think one of the top four is going to face some adversity. I'm not quite sure who it will be but someone is going to fall off the pace methinks.
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