2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catchers

Over the next couple months, I will be pre-ranking each position in fantasy baseball, providing sleepers, players to avoid, and prospects to know.  First up is the catcher position.


Catcher has traditionally been a position with two to three elite players and a bunch of mediocre ones that don't provide fantasy value; that is no longer the case, however.  Last year, the emergence of Mike Napoli, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters helped to balance the position out a bit, so that you will no longer face a major disadvantage if you miss out on a top catcher.  Now, the top nine or ten catchers can at least perform comparably.  Whether your team needs an average boost (Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina) or power numbers (J.P. Arencibia, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli), plenty of options are available.


Top Tier:
1. Mike Napoli
2. Carlos Santana
3. Victor Martinez
4. Brian McCann

The top four is pretty solidified, and consistency is the name of the game with most of these guys.  The elite of the elite in my opinion, Mike Napoli, had a breakout season last year in Texas; without him, the Rangers probably don't make it past the ALDS or ALCS.  Surprisingly, Napoli only had 432 at bats and was in my opinion, the best fantasy catcher.  Napoli played about the same amount as he did with the Angels surprisingly, but as he joined a far superior lineup with more protection, Napoli realized his full potential.  He posted career bests across the board, most noticeably his 19.7% strikeout rate, the first time in his career he's struck out less in less than 20% of his plate appearances.  His .320/.414/.631 was remarkable for a catcher, and probably the best season since Joe Mauer's 2009 season where he posted 28 HRs, 96 RBIs, a .365 average and 1.031 OPS.  We saw that the next year, Joe Mauer fell off a cliff as his .373 BABIP was unsustainable and the move to Target Field sapped quite a bit of his power.  His flyball, groundball, and line-drive rates were nearly equivalent to those of his 2009 season, so much of it will be attributed to Target Field.  Mike Napoli on the other hand, is in perhaps the most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB.  Napoli's .344 BABIP is easily the highest of his career, contributing heavily to his .321 average, which is unheard of for him.  The 25.4% HR/FB rate was also easily the highest of his career.  42-43% of his batted balls are generally flyballs (aside from his 2008, when he posted a 23.5% HR/FB rate and 52.5% flyball rate).  That means one of every ten balls he hits went for a home run last year, which is highly unlikely to continue.  His home run to flyball ratio will probably regress back towards his 19.5% career rate, which may result in the loss of a few home runs.  The rest of his statistics should remain the same however, and since the Rangers don't have an elite first baseman, it's possible he could play upwards of 130 games between catcher, first base and DH.  In a standard 12-team league, Napoli will probably go in the 4th or 5th round, and he sure isn't a bad bet, especially in a contract year.  Napoli is as strong of an all-around catcher as there is in fantasy.


Projection: 130 G, 480 AB, .270/.380/.530, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 65 R


Carlos Santana is the youngest member of the elite group, and definitely a buy-low target in keeper leagues.  Santana's overall production was still elite, as he still hit for power despite a lower-than-expected .239 average.  The switch-hitting catcher suffered greatly against right-handed pitching last year, hitting merely .202/.315/.426 against them, while posting a .964 OPS against lefty pitchers.  This was quite the puzzling development, as he hit .314 against right-handers in 2010 while hitting .146 against southpaws.  All we can take from that is... that we can't take anything from it.  I wouldn't look at him as a platoon player though, as he's capable of hitting .300 against righties or lefties.  The positive of Santana is his versatility and youth.  Santana played nearly every game last year, playing 155 games between catcher and first base, so if he can raise his average, he'll give you 100-200 extra at bats of a solid average compared to say Brian McCann or Mike Napoli.  Santana's had a low BABIP throughout his career in the majors, posting a .263 BABIP last year, so it's fair to expect his average to rise back up to a .260 to .270 level.  Santana is fully capable of a season with 30 HR, 90 RBI and an .850 to .900 OPS.  I don't know that he'll reach all those marks in one year, but the floor for Santana is a .240 average, .800 OPS and near 30 HRs if last year is any indication.  As I said, in keeper leagues, go get Santana.  In re-draft leagues, it's tougher, as he'll require a 3rd or 4th round pick, but it's perfectly justifiable.


Projection: 145 G, 530 AB, .250/.380/.500, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 80 R


Victor Martinez formed a dynamic back-to-back combo with Miguel Cabrera last year, and was a huge proponent of the Tigers' success.  Martinez was one of the most efficient hitters with runners in scoring position, hitting .394 and driving in 87 runs.  Martinez provides little power potential especially playing half of his games in the confines of Comerica Park.  He'll likely hit 5th again behind Miguel Cabrera, which provides the opportunity for him to repeat his .330 average and 103 RBIs from 2011.  V-Mart is a sleeper pick this year, as I'd rather have him than McCann.  The only thing that may concern me is that he will be a full-time DH next year, as Gerald Laird will assume the duty as back-up catcher.  If Leyland rests players by putting them at DH as he often does, V-Mart may see a loss of games played.  I would expect the 145 games still (same as last year), but be wary of both his proneness for injury and Leyland's propensity to rest players too much, even if they're only designated hitters.


Projection: 145 G, 560 AB, .320/.375/.450, 13 HR, 100 RBI, 70 R


Brian McCann is the most consistent player available at the position, dependable for 20+ HRs, 70+ RBIs and an .800 OPS.  The problem with McCann is that it doesn't seem his upside is much higher than that.  Any fantasy player would love McCann's production at catcher, but the days of an OPS around .900 seem to be in his past.  I think McCann can be expected to return to 80+ RBIs next year, as his career-low 15% line drive rate can be expected to rise back to his 19.9% line drive rate.  Line drive rate is typically one of the least predictable statistics to predict, but when a player like McCann is as consistent with it, it's reasonable to assume that he'll hit more line drives this year.  If you want a high-floor, low-ceiling catcher, McCann is the ideal option.


Projection: 135 G, 500 AB, .270/.350/.460, 19 HR, 83 RBI, 55 R


Second Tier:
5. Buster Posey
6. Matt Wieters
7. Alex Avila
8. Joe Mauer
9. Miguel Montero


Buster Posey could be a real bargain this year in re-draft leagues after missing the final four months of 2011's season with a broken leg sustained in a home-plate collision.  He was having a fine season (albeit a step down from his rookie campaign), but the leg injury brought it to a screeching halt and   Without Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Carlos Beltran were the lone serious threats on the Giants offense, so the Giants will really need Posey to produce a season similar to 2010 again.  All stories about Posey suggest that his rehab is right on schedule, if not ahead of schedule, and that he'll be available to return on Opening Day 2012 at 100%. Posey's more of an average hitter than a power-hitter.  Hitting in San Francisco certainly doesn't help him as the park is quite spacious, but his power to the gaps and .300 average potential could allow him to have a 15-20 HR, 80+ RBI season.  Posey bats higher in the lineup (2nd or 3rd) than most catchers as well, so he'll contribute more runs than almost any catcher.  He could potentially top Brian McCann and be the third best catcher, but his floor is certainly lower, as his 2011 season had him on pace for about 15 HRs, 70 RBI and a sub-.800 OPS before the injury.  Given Posey's talent level and quick learning curve, Posey should be a steal in re-draft leagues, and may be cheaper to acquire in keeper/dynasty leagues.  Buy now if you can, because once the season starts, Posey won't be available for anything less than a king's ransom in keeper leagues.


Projection: 145 G, 550 AB, .290/.360/.430, 14 HR, 85 RBI, 80 R

While Matt Wieters hasn't yet proved to be the can't-miss prospect that he was hyped as,
he's improved steadily each season, with last year seeing major increases in his power stroke (22 HRs in 139 games vs. 11 HRs in 130 games in 2010) and increased discipline (strikeout rate decreasing to 15.9%).  Wieters posted a below average .276 BABIP and still hit .262.  If all things go right, Wieters has the potential for a .300 average, but I don't think he'll ever profile as a true .300 hitter.  Wieters' .280 average and 20 HR potential could make him a top-5 fantasy catcher this season, and his draft position has risen accordingly.  Regardless, he's a great option to draft later than catchers such as Joe Mauer, the next guy on the list, but to expect better value from.


Projection: 140 G, 560 AB, .275/.340/.450, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 70 R


Alex Avila had one of the biggest breakout seasons in all of baseball last year, hitting for an .895 OPS with 19 HR and 82 RBI, and arguably being the best catcher not named Mike Napoli in baseball last year.   His fantasy numbers jumped, and as a Tigers fan, I was absolutely shocked to see him consistently keep his average around .300.  I always knew he had the discipline to hit for a higher average and draw a solid OBP, but his elite 13.2% walk rate and super-low 24.8% outside swing percentage shows that he's not swinging at many bad pitches, which will definitely inflate a player's average.  Avila's trademark was playing through being dinged up or seriously injured, as he caught 140 of the Tigers' 162 games.  Because he improved his hitting approach against left-handed pitchers, hitting .273 against them (.182 average against lefties in 2010), he got on the field much more.  He should see 130 or so games this year, but Jim Leyland got the Tigers to re-sign Gerald Laird, who is exactly the type of player that Leyland will run out there about 40 times this year for no good reason at all.  Avila could see a few games at 3B in interleague to keep his bat in the lineup, and could see a few games at DH occasionally to keep him healthy and rested, but rest assured, the Tigers will have him in the lineup for at least 130 games this year.  Avila's .366 BABIP is a warning sign, but it never really dropped last year, and his patience and high line drive rate over his career suggest he could keep it at a level around .320-.330.  One last warning sign: Jim Leyland hits Avila 8th quite commonly, and if that continues, his production will be more limited than if he hit in the middle of the lineup as most elite catchers do.  Regardless, Avila will still produce for your team.  While I'd take him after guys like Wieters and even Posey, he's a solid catcher to have on your team.  He's here to stay as one of the top catchers in fantasy, and in all aspects of baseball.


Projection: 133 G, 510 AB, .270/.365/.500, 18 HR, 75 RBI, 60 R


Joe Mauer has been a major disappointment the past two seasons in the fantasy world.  The reason he's been labeled a "disappointment" is that his 2009 season was MVP-worthy, and he displayed 30 HR power that he never showed prior, and hasn't shown since.  The last couple seasons have shown Mauer's true colors as a bit of an overrated fantasy catcher.  In a 5x5 league, Mauer is nothing more than a slightly above-average catcher, as his single digit HRs limit his RBI output a bit (players who hit 20 HRs will obviously get 10 more RBIs as a result of driving themselves in).  He's dependable for a .300 average and  about 80 runs if healthy, but that brings up his other warning sign.  "Bi-lateral leg weakness" sounds horrible, especially at the position most dependent on a players' knees.  The fact that a catcher's legs are a serious, ongoing injury problem is a major warning sign to avoid Mauer in your drafts this season.  If Mauer's going later than the 6th or 7th round though, he's a great upside play if you're feeling daring.  In early mock drafts by Fangraphs.com, Mauer's been going in the 5th round though.   With no apparent signs of his power at the plate reappearing, and no protection around him in the lineup (Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young are all gone), Mauer's a player to avoid unless he drops precipitously.


Projection: 120 G, 450 AB, .310/.380/.400, 8 HR, 70 RBI, 60 R


Miguel Montero finally put together a full season for the first time in his career, and showed the production we all expected from him for the past few years.  His 18 HR, 82 RBI season with an .820 OPS was extremely solid at the position, and his 140 games were very encouraging.  Much of Montero's success can be attributed to him becoming nearly twice as effective against fastballs than ever before.  In 2009, Montero produced 9.1 runs above average against fastballs, while in 2011 he produced 17.2 runs above average.  To put it in perspective, that means Montero was about 1.75 Wins Above Replacement against fastballs, regardless of any other part of his game.  I don't expect a repeat of this, as he's always hit for a decent average and for power, but it shows a mark of improvement.  Montero's BABIP was .317 last year, which is normally above average, but he's proven to be an above average hitter throughout his career (.316 career BABIP), so that is completely sustainable.  He hit less flyballs than ever in his career though and hit near his career high HR/FB rate (12.6%).  I'd expect him to hit HRs slightly less often next year, but that will likely only result in a couple less HRs, so nothing too damaging.  Montero will be great when he's in the lineup, and also hits in the heart of his team's lineup which always helps the counting numbers.  But injury does make him a tough guy to depend on.  He goes far later in the draft than the top few guys, so it's definitely worth the pick.  Buyers beware due to injury, but I'll be diving in head-first to take Montero as a stealthy 20 HR, 80 RBI option.


Projection: 125 G, 485 AB, .265/.340/.470, 16 HR, 76 RBI, 58 R


Third Tier:
10. J.P. Arencibia
11. Yadier Molina
12. Russell Martin

Okay if you're this far down and haven't drafted a catcher yet.. you may want to jump on that before it's too late.  These guys are all really one/two category contributors or highly risky, so if you waited this long, grab the guy that best suits your team's needs, whether it's an average hitter (Yadier Molina) or a power-hitter (Arencibia, Ramos, Martin).


J.P. Arencibia is exactly what the Blue Jays look for in a hitter nowadays.  Has 30-HR power, swings for the fences (and often), and as a result, doesn't hit for a high average or attain a high OBP.  Arencibia, despite hitting .219 and posting an OBP of .282, produced only 8% below a league average hitter.  From a catcher, this is spectacular, especially when it comes along with 23 HRs and 78 RBIs.  While the RBI numbers will likely drop as he hits at the bottom of the lineup and only hits .220, the HR numbers could potentially climb towards 30 this year.  Even if he remained at .220 with 25 HRs and 70 RBIs, at catcher, that puts him in the top 10.  One thing that bears watching however: Arencibia could see a lot of two at bat games if the Blue Jays are leading, as newly acquired C Jeff Mathis is a defensive whiz behind the plate and could replace him as a defensive replacement in many games.


Projection: 135 G, 440 AB, .230/.300/.440, 25 HR, 68 RBI, 45 R


Russell Martin may never again reach the elite level he played at in 2007 and 2008 with the Dodgers, but if he can replicate his 2011 season (especially the first half), the Yankees would be ecstatic, and so would you as a fantasy owner.  Russell Martin is a great bargain this low in the draft, as he has 20 HR power and even the potential for 10 SB over a full season.  Martin won't hit over .250 (hasn't done so in any of the past 3 seasons), but his power has remained constant, so the 15-20 HRs are here to stay.  His counting numbers benefit greatly from being on the Yankees.  He scored about 60 runs and drove in 65 runs with the Yankees in 125 games last year.  When on base, it's likely for guys like Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and Nick Swisher to drive him in.  Martin's a great option if you get this low without drafting a catcher, and seems pretty dependable aside from his injury history.  Martin's a very solid pickup this late in the catcher rankings, and could produce like a top ten catcher yet again.  Like Arencibia though, he has a backup that bears watching in stand-out prospect Jesus Montero.  Montero will begin the year as a DH, but should take games behind the plate from Martin fairly often to keep him healthy.


Projection: 120 G, 430 AB, .240/.325/.420, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 60 R, 8 SB


Yadier Molina had a career season last year, and hopes to repeat it this year.  Unfortunately, I'm pretty pessimistic he'll be able to do so.  He hit a HR on 9.1% of his flyballs last year, which isn't all that high, but Yadier's career average is 5.8%.  According to ESPN's Home Run Tracker, 5 of Yadier Molina's HRs were so short, they wouldn't have been HRs in 24 or more other parks.  Basically, it seems Yadier's luck in being in the right place and right time on a few line-drive shots greatly benefitted him.  His power did rise however, and a durable catcher that can hit for a .300 average, 10 HR and 60 RBI is perfectly useful if you've waited on a catcher until the end of your draft, or as a hedge to your wager on the health of a guy like Joe Mauer.  The .300 average for 140 games really vaults Yadier's value up, if he hits .270ish, Molina becomes a waiver wire catcher as he wouldn't even benefit your team's average.


Projection: 140 G, 480 AB, .300/.350/.410, 9 HR, 58 RBI, 50 R


Okay, Seriously TAKE A CATCHER (or Tier 4):
13. Jesus Montero 
14. Ryan Doumit 
15. Geovany Soto 

We're past the top 12... you're in trouble if your starting catcher still isn't listed.  Time to focus on the sleepers now.  At this point, it makes more sense to draft a boom or bust guy than to draft a consistent .250 AVG, 10 HR, 50 RBI guy, so keeping that in mind we continue on with the rankings.


Jesus Montero is the biggest sleeper at catcher in 2012... mostly because he won't open the season in most leagues qualified at the catcher position.  Montero is largely going to act as the Yankees' DH this season, but will also spell Martin at catcher.  In Yahoo! leagues, after 5 starts at catcher, Montero will become available at the position.  The only question with Montero is how long will it take.  If Martin shows to be quite durable and Montero doesn't get to work every 5th day with a certain pitcher, it could take Montero two months to acquire catcher eligibility.  But if the Yankees want to rest Martin often, Montero could have his eligibility after as little as 3 weeks or a month.  The opportunity cost of drafting Montero, who has 20+ HR and 80 RBI potential in the Yankees' lineup and ballpark, is important to consider.  Are you okay with your two catchers being an ineligible rookie at the position and a guy like Wilson Ramos or Ryan Doumit?  If you're willing to take that chance, it could win you your league potentially.  I'd advise anyone who can get Montero late in a standard-league draft to do so and hope he gains eligibility quickly at catcher.  He's easily worth more than anyone else left, even if he doesn't hit for 20 HR and 80 RBI over the course of the season.


Projection: 145 G, 520 AB, .260/.340/.450, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 60 R


Ryan Doumit is a solid late option at catcher in 2012.  The former Pirate will be used primarily as a DH and outfielder with the Twins, and also at first base and catcher.  Doumit's move away from catcher should only help his durability concerns, especially if he becomes the Twins' primary DH, as I assume he will.  Doumit in Target Field could hit 15 HRs over a full season and approach a .300 average, but I don't expect him to reach either.  However, his RBI numbers could be very solid hitting behind Joe Mauer and hopefully, Justin Morneau.  If you draft Doumit late, and he hits .275 with 10-15 HRs and 70 RBIs, you're looking at a passable starting catcher.  His injury history has to scare you as he has only surpassed 400 ABs in two seasons, but expect him to at least reach that as a primary DH.


Projection: 120 G, 430 AB, .280/.350/.410, 13 HRs, 65 RBI, 45 R

Remember when Geovany Soto was labeled the next great catcher?  Well, after his 3 seasons where he alternated between bad (2009 and 2011) and good again (2010), no one really knows who the real Geovany Soto is.  We know he's a 20 HR guy who draws walks quite frequently, which generally is a skillset anyone would like at catcher in fantasy baseball.  However, his .218 and .228 averages in 2009 and 2011 respectively can't allow us to call him dependable.  His average is so bad that he risks getting benched by his team on a daily basis.  Soto no longer has the benefit of being the "future" as catcher, so his low average, if continued, could end up costing him his job.  Soto also posted his first 120 game season in 3 years, so he's not exactly durable day-in and day-out either.  He'll get you 15-20 HRs with about 50 RBIs, and if you subscribe to him being good every other year, he'll hit .280 this season!  He's a definite risk at this point, and if he hits .280, he could be a top-12 catcher.  If he hits .220, you'll wish he wasnt on your roster.  Take the risk this late in the draft and hope for the best.


Projection: 125 G, 420 AB, .240/.340/.400, 18 HRs, 55 RBI, 45 R

If you're still reading and haven't found your catcher, you're in serious trouble at catcher, and probably have the worst situation at the position in your league.  There are still a few guys available, but nothing special, and you'll be selling out for one-category contributors.

The next 5 guys in order are probably:
16. Wilson Ramos
17. Devin Mesoraco
18. Jonathan Lucroy
19. Miguel Olivo
20. Ramon Hernandez.

Wilson Ramos will be the full-time starter for the Nationals, but his sudden power surge (career-high 13.4% HR/FB and .177 ISO) seems out of place given his minor league career.  He may replicate his 2011 stats, but it'll take him 130-140 games to do so which is far less impressive.  Mesoraco offers big upside as the top catcher prospect not named Jesus Montero, and as a cog in the Reds' lineup.  However, it remains to be seen if he'll be used like Ramon Hernandez was.  If that's the case, Mesoraco will only see 100 or so starts to show off his potential.  As a rookie, I could see him hitting 15-20 HRs with a .270 average in 130-140 games, but I doubt he sees that many starts.  Jonathan Lucroy had a solid, albeit unspectacular season in 2011, and should be able to repeat it.  A consistent starter that hits .260 with over 10 HRs and 60 RBIs on a solid offense is tough to pass up at this point in the draft.  Miguel Olivo will hit .220 and strikeout a ton, but he'll still get you 20 HRs and 60 RBIs plus a few steals by the end of the year, so Olivo is a guy to grab late and be okay with.  Just know that you'll need to draft a .300+ hitter at another position just to cancel out Olivo's poor average.  Last but not least in my top 20 is Ramon Hernandez, who I've always liked.  He's moving to Tampa Bay which could lead to more plate appearances than in Cincinnati where he was in a constant time-share at catcher.  However, he's older and moving to a tougher division.  Hernandez could put up 15 HRs and 50-55 RBI if he plays 130-140 games, but I'd expect him to be more of a spot-start guy at catcher.  If you need an injury replacement, he's a great guy to target.

I'll cover the first basemen and designated hitters in my next piece, where I'll detail how the moves of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder in free agency could affect their production among many other topics.