Quickly, to recap my thoughts on Prince Fielder, here's my section on Fielder in my 2012 Free Agency Preview from a few months ago:
Prince is the second high-profile hitter available this offseason, and a fantastic middle of the order hitter to add to any lineup. Fielder posted the second best season of his career by pretty much any metric. His .299/.415/.566 line was only topped by his 2009 season. He had a 5.5 WAR season this year, and played almost every game again. Baseball analysts and executives alike have expressed concern about how Prince's 5'11" and 275 pound frame will hold up over the next 7 years, but Fielder has never missed more than 6 games in his career which sets those doubts aside. Separating the aspects that make up Wins Above Replacement (Batting, Fielding, Positional, Replacement, Base Running), Fielder was actually 5th in MLB in batting, making him the fifth most valuable hitter. That's pretty impressive especially considering that his WAR would be higher except that he plays at a traditional power hitting position (1st base is the easiest position to play, so WAR docks players accordingly).I projected him for 8 years, $185 million ($23.125 million per year) and he got 9 years, $214 million ($23.78 million per year) so I wasn't too far off on the projection, but I sure was wrong about where he'd go (I projected the Blue Jays). Fielder was always better suited for the American League, and it was fantasy to believe that the Nationals would actually sign him for the $200 million he desired, as his subpar fielding is bound to decline over time.
For a guy named Fielder though, he sure doesn't acknowledge that part of the game. He was the fifth worst fielding first basemen in baseball (granted, the four worse fielders were far lower in grading). For this reason, it's likely he'll attract a heavy market in the AL, where teams can play him both at first base and slot him occasionally (or mainly) at DH.
Overall, I think Fielder is the second best free agent available, but the most interesting facet of this free agent group is the fact that its two premier players are at the same position. It'll be interesting to watch if he or Pujols sets the market for first basemen. I have a feeling Fielder will sign after Pujols, and likely for a deal approaching (if not surpassing) Mark Texieira's 8 year, $180 million deal ($22.5 million per year). If anyone in this offseason gets a deal longer than 7 years, it really should be Prince, as he's only 27. Most players hit their prime in their early 30s, so Prince would hypothetically only be beginning his decline towards the end of his deal.
The Victor Martinez injury likely spurred this decision on, as the replacement of Victor Martinez with a mediocre player such as Johnny Damon, Juan Pierre or Casey Kotchman may have kept the Tigers out of the driver's seat in the AL Central. The Tigers already were bound to regress from their somewhat lucky 95-win season of 2011. Justin Verlander isn't likely to post another 2.4 ERA and Doug Fister isn't likely to pitch to an ERA just over 2 this season in Detroit. Alex Avila's .366 BABIP suggests that his batting average will fall back to a .250 or .260 level this season, and Jhonny Peralta became an elite hitting shortstop again after disappearing for a couple years at the plate.
The lineup now sets up to look something like the following on a nightly basis:
1.) CF Austin Jackson
2.) RF Brennan Boesch
3.) 3B Miguel Cabrera
4.) 1B Prince Fielder
5.) DH Delmon Young
6.) C Alex Avila
7.) SS Jhonny Peralta
8.) 2B Ryan Raburn
9.) LF Andy Dirks
Yeah, you read that right. Miguel Cabrera is likely moving back to third base in a shocking revelation, even though Prince and Miggy could share 1B and DH duties this year and there wouldn't be a logjam. However, in 2013 Victor Martinez will return to DH and Miguel Cabrera would then have to move to 3rd base anyways, so the Tigers would much rather get him reps at the position earlier if possible. Pressure will be on Miguel Cabrera to get himself into much better shape to man the hot corner, as in his current state, he may be the worst fielding 3rd baseman we've seen in years. The fact of the matter is though, if Miguel Cabrera is 15 runs below average in the field at 3rd base, it's cancelled out by the fact that 3rd basemen are fairly valuable in the measure of WAR. By moving Miguel Cabrera to 3rd base, Inge's poor bat is removed from the lineup, Delmon's poor outfield defense will move to DH, and Andy Dirks will play above-average defense in left field. This infield has the potential to be the worst fielding infield we've seen in years or decades though. None of the players are even average fielders at their position. I honestly have no idea how big of an impact this will have on the Tigers' season, but this grouping will be the true test of how much defense truly matters in baseball. Advanced baseball stats value defense pretty highly, so if this configuration can produce a World Series champion as probably the worst fielding team in baseball, it may be time to reexamine the defensive value of players.
The 2-7 spots in this lineup should be exceptionally productive, but the top of the lineup is still quite worrisome. Austin Jackson isn't a prototypical leadoff hitter, and Brennan Boesch, while he has hit much more effectively while batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, still profiles more as a middle of the order hitter than a hitter to set the table for Miggy and Prince. The 8 and 9 holes are great compared to that of other teams, especially if Raburn can put a full season together instead of only hitting well after the All-Star Break.
Now, to look at Prince himself, and what to expect. Fielder posted a 5.5 WAR season in 2011, and it's not crazy to expect close to the same again from him. As I said in the quote above, Fielder was the 5th best batter in baseball, taking all other aspects of WAR other than hitting out of the equation. Fielder's actually shown marked improvement over the past few seasons as well, as his K% has dropped to an above-average 15.3% from a career average of 18.5% and his Contact% has risen to above 80%, an above average rate as well. Basically, Fielder has developed even more discipline and contact skills at the plate, and those aren't likely to leave the 28-year-old any time soon. Prince needs to provide approximately 35-40 WAR over his 9 seasons to return the value on the Tigers' $214 million investment in Fielder. Let's assume that Fielder's next nine seasons pan out as follows:
2012: 5.0 WAR
2013: 5.0 WAR
2014: 4.5 WAR
2015: 4.0 WAR
2016: 3.5 WAR
2017: 3.0 WAR
2018: 2.5 WAR
2019: 2.0 WAR
2020: 1.5 WAR
Fielder would produce 31 WAR over the life of his contract, worth about $150-160 million to the Tigers, which means he would easily fail to return their investment. In order to make this contract palatable for the Tigers over a nine-season span, he needs to keep his current production up for about four years and then experience a gradual decline of .5 WAR per season. Is that likely? Probably not. Is it possible though? It's not out of the realm of possibility no; the 2015 season is his 31-year-old season, and he could still be in his prime at that time. Since he's so young, he has the potential to live up to this contract, but it's highly unlikely he does.
The end result is that the Tigers are pushing all of their chips in to attempt to win the World Series in the next 3 seasons while they still have Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander to play with Prince Fielder, as well as the other young, important parts of the team. This contract is likely going to prevent the Tigers from signing players towards the end of this decade, and will likely be impossible to move, as a 5'11", 270 pound first baseman isn't expected to age very gracefully, even if he may be one of the most durable MLB players. The Tigers likely just improved from a middle-of-the-road 85 win team to a 90 win team that should win the AL Central fairly comfortably and contend for the AL pennant for the foreseeable future. If Jacob Turner develops into the pitcher he's expected to be, and players like Brennan Boesch, Alex Avila, Jhonny Peralta maintain their current level of production, this team has staying power for the next few years and could just win that coveted World Series.
As a Tigers fan, I love and hate the move simultaneously. Our window to contend is going to close soon, and it's not likely we compile talent equivalent to our current talent base anytime soon, so it makes perfect sense to go for a championship now. However, this contract seems almost impossible to live up to, as most contracts over 7 years are. Fielder is going to be a major liability in the last 3 years of this contract, but if he plays well enough over the first six and helps bring the Tigers a championship, I can stomach overpaying him for those three seasons.
This is truly a paradigm shift in baseball; The Tigers have thrown defense to the wayside in favor of compiling the best offense they can. Detroit will be tough to watch on defense(or enjoyable if you're a fan of one of the Tigers' rivals), but the offense is undeniably legitimate and will be a joy to watch.
The Tigers are now one of the AL powers, right alongside the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers and Angels. I never thought I'd be able to say that about this franchise that 8 years ago was holding church services to pray for wins. The city of Detroit and Tigers fans now have an even greater reason to rally around this team, and for that reason alone, this Prince Fielder contract makes all the sense in the world.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment