2/8/12

Where Will Peyton Manning End Up?

It's amazing what a lost year can do to a franchise. This time last year the Colts were as stable an organization as there is in the NFL. Peyton Manning was just going to have some routine procedures but for all intents and purposes the man was viewed as indestructible. 

Then it all came tumbling down. Now in a year where the younger Manning brother is viewed as the superior one because of Peyton's neck, uncertainty, and lack of jewelry, the NFL is left to wonder. Where will Peyton Manning end up? Can the Colts possibly hold on to him? Would he want to face Eli twice a year?

To stress how crazy this thing has gotten, here are Vegas' odds on his potential landing spots. I think Cooper Manning could become a very rich man in the next few days.

Miami 5/2
Washington 3/1
Indianapolis 4/1
New York Jets 5/1
Arizona 25/1
Denver 25/1
San Francisco 40/1
Kansas City 50/1
Tennessee 50/1
Houston 75/1
Rest of Field 10/1
The thought of Stephen Ross and Dan Snyder getting in a bidding war is hilarious. Let's start there and work our way down.

The Dolphins have a very good and underrated team. Many view them as being a QB away from being a playoff team. Matt Moore played admirably but it remains to be seen if he can be a starter in the league. The team has plenty of talent offensively as well (Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, Anthony Fasano, and a nice running back tandem between Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas) and the line can protect and give Manning time. Marshall wants a new QB, at least from his Pro Bowl quotes, and Ross has been quoted as being "infatuated with the idea" of signing Manning. The team has also been linked to Matt Flynn thanks to the hiring of Joe Philbin though it's likely that Ross would pull rank and go for the bigger name. Miami makes a lot of sense and they have the cap space to get it done, but Manning may want to go to a team with an easier path to the playoffs. 

That's why the Redskins make little sense. The surrounding offensive talent in Washington is by far the most unappealing. Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney are above average and Fred Davis was just franchised. Roy Helu is a nice option but the line doesn't bode well for a quarterback who is at greatest risk of injury. Snyder can bust out the checkbook but it's unlikely that the Skins can go toe-to-toe with the Fins or many other teams for Manning's services.

Indy has odds this high for the bleeding heart Colt fans who think there's still a chance. Manning would cost $28 million to keep and then you have to factor in Andrew Luck's eventual salary. Yes, there is a rookie pay scale but the Colts have to also figure out what to do with free agents Robert Mathis, Pierre Garcon, Jacob Tamme, and Reggie Wayne among others. Manning could theoretically take a pay cut to stay in Indy but if he's losing one of Garcon or Wayne and one of Dallas Clark (who will likely be cut) or Tamme then their appeal goes down the tubes. It has never made sense for Manning to stay with the Colts since they were locked into the #1 pick and it makes even less sense now.

The Jets present an interesting situation. Mark Sanchez has failed to impress and there are plenty of weapons (Santonio Holmes, Shonn Greene, Dustin Keller). Rex Ryan has a way with players and having one of the best defenses in the league on the other side of the ball means that Manning could step right into the controls of a Super Bowl contender. Playing in the same city as his brother may not appealing to Manning, though, and who knows if he wants to deal with the crazed New York media.

Arizona traded for Kevin Kolb last offseason but that turned out to be a colossal failure. They can cut Kolb with a minimal hit to the cap and that would instantly free up space in the cap. Along with San Francisco, the NFC West provides Manning with the best road to the playoffs. Even Seattle should be in on Manning's services. The 49ers provide the best shot given their amazing defense and offensive playmakers like Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree. They may just elect to bring back Alex Smith at a fraction of the price though. Larry Fitzgerald provides enticement for a move to the desert and the Cards could be a lot better next year. Seattle has to lock up Marshawn Lynch before anything else but Sidney Rice, Doug Baldwin, a healthy Big Mike Williams, and Zach Miller could be the best overall group in the division. I think we can all agree that if Manning headed to the NFC West that Jeff Fisher would have fits of deja vu from their time together in the AFC South.

Denver is an interesting team but I think they'll give Tim Tebow the year to sink or swim. Same goes in Kansas City for Matt Cassel. Both teams could obviously benefit from adding Manning but it doesn't make sense when the resources could go towards other holes. Plus I wouldn't even want to think of the backlash in Denver from Tebow Nation. I can't imagine that Manning wants to deal with Tebow questioning week after week.

Tennessee would likely have higher odds if Jeff Fisher was still there. Mike Munchak was mulling over a move to State College and who knows what the team has on offense. Chris Johnson was up and down last year and their WR corps includes Nate Washington, Damian Williams, and Kenny Britt who is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL. The Texans are there just as a "gotcha" for the betting public. Casual fans watching the playoffs last year know that the Texans were a great team and may very well win the AFC next year. However, they may have forgotten about Matt Schaub and just view Manning as a massive upgrade over T.J. Yates. 

As far as the rest of the league, I touched on Seattle earlier and I think they are the most likely team in "the field." Let's categorize the rest of the teams:

Teams With Entrenched QBs
New England
Pittsburgh
San Diego
New York Giants
Philadelphia
Dallas
Green Bay
Detroit
Chicago
New Orleans (when/if they re-sign Drew Brees)
Atlanta
Carolina
St. Louis

Out of those teams, the one that jumps off the page as a long shot that is just crazy enough to happen is in Dallas. Jerry Jones was quoted as saying that the difference between the Giants and Cowboys this year was the play of Eli Manning. Tony Romo is a great QB but I would not put it past Jerry Jones to chase the big name and deal Romo to a team who misses out on Peyton.

Teams  With Established QBs
Buffalo
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Oakland
Tampa Bay

Each of these teams are in a different position. Buffalo just handed Ryan Fitzpatrick a huge extension but  his play didn't inspire confidence down the stretch. They will likely focus on retaining Stevie Johnson this offseason, though. Joe Flacco has played very well for John Harbaugh but many fans want to run him out of town. However, Ray Rice is a far bigger for this team. Andy Dalton had a fantastic rookie season for the Bengals and I doubt they'd do anymore more than kick the tires. Oakland traded away a ton to get Carson Palmer so they're likely stuck with him at this point. Josh Freeman regressed majorly this year but the Bucs are in need of much more than an upgrade at QB at this point.

Question Marks
Cleveland
Jacksonville
Minnesota
Seattle

Peyton Manning won't go to Cleveland. Let's just get that out of the way now. Given what the Jags invested in Blaine Gabbert they are obligated to give him the year. Christian Ponder was alright for the Vikings but got outplayed by Joe Webb.

If I had to take a stab at Manning's landing spot, I would say it will be Miami or one of the NFC West teams. Miami just makes a ton of sense and he may relish the chance to go against Tom Brady twice a year. It's a tougher road to the playoffs but winning the second wild card (behind the Baltimore/Pittsburgh second place finisher) isn't an outlandish goal. If Manning just cares about winning then I think the 49ers can provide him with the best chance. They could likely get the #1 seed in the NFC next year and he could continue the 49er tradition of great quarterback play.

The elephant in the room with Manning, though, is what about his health? Yes, he has been cleared to be hit but he is lacking on the velocity and reports on his deep throws are underwhelming. For all we know a team may not get the Peyton Manning we're use to and instead we'll see the second coming of Chad Pennington. Only time will tell.

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