3/7/12

30 Teams in 30 Days: Chicago Cubs

2011 Record: 71-91, 5th place NL Central
Major Acquisitions: Theo Epstein, SP Chris Volstad, 1B Anthony Rizzo, SP Paul Maholm, RP Kerry Wood, OF Reed Johnson, 3B Ian Stewart, SP Travis Wood, RF David Dejesus
Major Losses: RP Chris Carpenter, SP Carlos Zambrano, RP Andrew Cashner, OF Tyler Colvin, RP Sean Marshall

The Cubs were uncompetitive, as has been the norm of late for this illustrious organization.  Despite a high payroll, the Cubs have been unable to amass wins on the field, mostly because their big money is locked up in players like Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, and Ryan Dempster; so they brought in Theo Epstein to help change the losing culture that's taken over the organization of late.  The Cubs were pretty average across the board offensively aside from steals, where their 69 steals in 2011 was the third least in baseball (Detroit was lowest at 49).  As far as pitching is concerned, the Cubs' staff easily led the league in giving out the most bases on balls, and the entire team totaled a 4.34 ERA, ranking them 25th in MLB.

Projected Lineup:
RF David Dejesus
SS Starlin Castro
CF Marlon Byrd
1B Bryan LaHair
LF Alfonso Soriano
C Geovany Soto
2B Darwin Barney
3B Ian Stewart

David Dejesus came pretty cheaply at 2 years, $10 million, and if he can return to his days of posting a .780 to .800 OPS with good defense, the Cubs got an absolute steal here, and a great leadoff hitter.  He went to Oakland where offense goes to die, and predictably his OPS plummeted.  His SLG was near a career-low and his BABIP of .276 was the lowest of his career, where he averages a .316 BABIP for his career.  Look for a bounce-back from him this year, and for him to be a tradeable asset in 2013.  Starlin Castro has the skills to be a star at shortstop and already has two insanely consistent seasons under his belt.  Both seasons he hit .300 and OPS'ed about .750, along with good speed on the basepaths.  Last year he stole 22 bases in 31 attempts, which isn't a great rate, but he's their best stolen base threat, so look for him to possibly increase that number closer to 30 this year.

Marlon Byrd is probably the best option to hit #3 which begins to show the problems with this lineup.  He'll post an OPS around .750, possibly towards .800, but has little power and only decent speed.  He's a more valuable quantity because he plays center field, but as a #3 hitter, he doesn't fit the mold. Like Castro, he doesn't walk much, so there could be a lot of 1-2-3 innings for pitchers facing the top of the Cubs' lineup.  Bryan LaHair has been handed the clean-up spot in the lineup for some reason, although he's proven absolutely nothing except that he can hit for power in AAA at age 29.  Generally these players don't pan out in MLB, but I suppose the Cubs have no better options, as Anthony Rizzo clearly isn't MLB-ready yet either.  LaHair has extreme power, slugging 38 HRs in 523 plate appearances in AAA last year, and projects as a decent bat by every projection system.  A .270/.340/.440 line or something similar seems to be the general guess at his MLB production over a full season, but again, he's such a question mark that even that is questionable.  Alfonso Soriano is a shell of his former self, as while he maintains 20+ HR power, his average has settled in around the .240 to .250 range and his plate discipline continues to falter, drawing a walk about one of every 20 plate appearances now, whereas even in 2010 he drew a walk about every 12-13 plate appearances.  He can still hit for power and drive in runs, but he'll leave runners stranded just as often, and of course he's still an adventure in the field.

Geovany Soto looked to be one of the premier young players in baseball in 2008 when he hit 23 HRs with an OPS over .850 as a rookie.  Since then, he's just shown to be an inconsistent hitter.  In 2009 and 2011, he posted OPS figures below .750 while in 2010, he just missed out on a .900 OPS in 105 games.  Soto still has 20 HR power, but he's realistically a .240 hitter that strikes out too often while showing that power.  He's basically a slightly more disciplined version of Alfonso Soriano at this point while hitting, so nothing special, but at least he isn't making $18 million to do that.  Darwin Barney is a tiny second baseman with no power at all, but is great on defense and can hit around .280, so he's an okay utility infielder or starter if the rest of the infield is above average.  Unfortunately that's not the case for the Cubs, as rounding out the lineup is 3B Ian Stewart, who posted a sub-.500 OPS over 146 plate appearances before finally being demoted by the Rockies and traded to the Cubs.  Stewart does draw a fair amount of walks and has 20-25 HR power over a full season, but his average tops out at about .250 and he's largely ineffective against left-handed pitchers.  As a member of a platoon at 3rd base, Ian Stewart could post an .800 OPS in a good year and be a pretty valuable 3rd baseman.  If he starts against left-handers as well though, his value is lessened.  He's still a decent bet to rebound and could be a fine starting 3rd baseman for now.

One bench/minor league player to watch: OF Brett Jackson.  The Cubs' top prospect, he's flown through the minors and dominated in his 215 plate appearances in AAA last year.  He's got legitimate 20/20 potential and the Cubs would be well served to move Marlon Byrd or Alfonso Soriano and get him in the lineup sooner rather than later.  If he comes up early during the season or even wins a starting spot out of Spring Training, he could be in talks for NL Rookie of the Year.  Anthony Rizzo is the other minor leaguer to watch, as he was acquired from the Padres.  Theo Epstein drafted him with the Red Sox, traded him to the Padres, and then reacquired him with the Cubs, so he clearly has an affinity for him.  Rizzo will jump in at first base quickly if LaHair proves to be a Quadruple A player.

Starting Rotation:
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Matt Garza
SP Paul Maholm
SP Randy Wells
SP Travis Wood

The Cubs don't have a true #1 pitcher, which is a serious issue, but Dempster and Garza are both proven, solid commodities.  Dempster posted a 4.80 ERA but don't let that deceive you, as his K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rates were almost exactly the same as his 2010 season where he posted a 3.85 ERA.  His 2011 FIP of 3.95 was actually lower than his 2010 3.99 FIP, suggesting that Dempster's .324 BABIP was more unlucky than a sign of his decline as a pitcher.  Additionally, Fangraphs listed the Cubs as the worst team defense in MLB, so there's even more reason to assume he'll return to his previous expectations.  His performance is very similar to Mark Buehrle in that you can expect 200 innings every year, and for him to post an ERA in the high 3's or low 4's.  The upside for Dempster over Buehrle is that Dempster can be counted on for nearly a strikeout per inning, as he's topped 170 strikeouts in each of the past 4 seasons.  Matt Garza is the best pitcher on the staff, but Dempster's longevity with the team will have him listed as the #1 in all likelihood.  Garza dominated the National League after coming over from the Tampa Bay Rays.  His groundball rate increased 10% to 47%, he struck out 47 more batters in 6 less innings than his 2010 season, allowed 14 HRs in 2011 (28 HRs allowed in 2010), and posted career lows in ERA (3.32), FIP (2.95) and xFIP (3.19). Garza's 5 WAR season put him with the top 15-20 pitchers in baseball for his performance last year, and he certainly increased his value to the Cubs should they wish to extend him past his final arbitration year next year.  His FIP is lower than his ERA because while he posted .270ish BABIPs from 2008-2010 in Tampa Bay thanks to their great defense, the poor defense of Chicago failed him.

The rest of the Cubs' rotation is filled by non-descript starters that likely won't provide any great performance, but won't be horrible either.  Paul Maholm is a groundball pitcher who relies greatly on his defense, so he may be in some serious trouble coming to Chicago.  Maholm's 3.66 ERA and 3.78 FIP last year which were career lows.  He did strand a lot of batters on base last year at 72% (MLB average is 70%) and his BABIP was a career low .286, so Maholm's ERA should rise to the low 4's, but he'll be a decent 3rd starter.  Randy Wells is a fairly average pitcher with two above-average years and one very poor year in 2011.  Wells allowed a HR every 6 innings even as a pitcher with groundball tendencies, doesn't strike batters out, and still had a 5.11 FIP and 4.99 ERA with a BABIP of .275, far below the league average of about .300.  Wells is a filler, nothing more.  Wood is still young and has two partial MLB seasons under his belt, one where his BABIP was extremely low and he pitches to a 3.59 ERA and in 2011 his BABIP was .324 and he posted a 4.84 ERA.  Realistically, his ERA should settle in around his 2011 FIP of 4.06.  He's a pretty extreme flyball pitcher, so a move to Wrigley may help him quite a bit, getting out of Great American Ballpark, although he never struggled with surrendering HRs there.  Expect Wood to be an above average #5 starter, but for a contender he's no more than a #4 or #5 pitcher.

Bullpen:
CL Carlos Marmol
MR Kerry Wood
MR Jeff Samardzija
MR James Russell
MR Trever Miller
MR Andy Sonnanstine
LR Chris Volstad

Carlos Marmol is one of the most frustrating pitchers in baseball.  He strikes out 12 batters per 9 innings with regularity, and set the record for relievers with a 15.99 K/9 in 2010, but he also walks almost 6 batters per 9 innings to go along with it.  His ERA and FIP are completely unpredictable, as he's posted FIPs as low as 2.01 (2010) and FIPs as high as 4.06 (2009).  His slider is near unhittable, but he also rarely throws it for strikes, and his fastball isn't very effective to offset it.  He throws his slider nearly 60% of the time so it's a wonder he hasn't suffered more injuries, but in the meantime he's still a good reliever, albeit one that can blow 10 saves in a season for your team like he did in 2011.  Kerry Wood and Jeff Samardzija both have below-average control, but strike out plenty of batters and are quite effective.  Volstad is probably the least effective of the potential candidates for the Cubs' rotation, so I'm projecting him to be the spot starter and long reliever.

Five Fearless Predictions for 2012:
1. Matt Garza duplicates his 2011 season, while his ERA drops closer to 3, and the Cubs deal him to the Tigers for a deal involving Jacob Turner.
2. David Dejesus rebounds and posts a .290/.360/.420 season, scoring 80 runs.
3. Ian Stewart returns to his previous levels of production, posting a .240/.320/.460 line and 20 HRs at 3B.
4. Ryan Dempster's ERA drops at least a full run, and his peripherals (K/9, BB/9, HR/9) remain almost exactly the same.  Dempster is shopped around but decides to exercise his no-trade clause and remains in Chicago.
5. Anthony Rizzo joins the regular lineup by the All-Star Break and posts a .770 OPS with 10 HRs.


When your #1 offseason acquisition is a GM, your organization is in dire straits.  This team needs serious work, and like the Astros, are a few years from contending, but they have young players like Rizzo, Castro, Soto, Jackson to build around and marketable commodities in Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster they hope to deal this year.  The Cubs won't make any real noise this year, but I'd expect slight improvement from last season.

Team Finish: 74-88, 4th place NL Central

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