Debris Caution: AdvoCare 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


I remember when Atlanta Motor Speedway was rebuilt in 1997. In case you don't, basically the frontstretch and the backstretch were swapped in an attempt to standardize the track like other ovals that Speedway Motorsports owns. There were some other alterations as well but that change still sticks out to me. To say that Atlanta is a tradition on the NASCAR circuit would be an understatement and this track in particular has a special tie to yours truly. After the 2009 move to Labor Day weekend this became my sort of "birthday" track. Attention NASCAR: I would have preferred a road course, but a night race is alright, I won't even ask for a gift receipt.

Since my birthday is on the second, let's start with the Blue Deuce. I know, I know, I've been talking about Brad Keselowski for weeks now. Then again, how can you not mention a guy who has finished first, second, third, and first in the past month? Even though he has two starts in the Sprint Cup (one DNF and an average finish of 30.5) and four in the Nationwide Series (two top-10s, one of which was a top-5) he's still a contender to win this week. Keselowski has bolted up the standings so quickly that he is now only 21 points out of tenth place. He's already locked in to The Chase as a wild card so look for the team to potentially take some risks this week and just go for the win again. Don't bet against Kes right now and expect a top-5, if not top-3 performance.

If there is one guy right now that needed to see Atlanta Motor Speedway, it was Tony Stewart. From my browsing yesterday and this morning it seems like every blogger and expert is writing off Stewart's chances, saying that he's headed in the wrong direction and some even say he may miss The Chase. With two races left before the cutoff and his lead all but gone (as I said, 21 ahead of Kes but only 22 ahead of Clint Bowyer) it seems there is a good chance. But here is what you need to know: in 24 career starts, Stewart has an average finish of 11.6 at Atlanta. He has nine top-5s in that span and 12 top-10s and he absolutely has to have a strong finish on Saturday. Richmond looms next week and that is easily Bowyer's best track. I expect a top-10 finish, maybe even higher, and if he doesn't watch his mirror all race for the #2 and #33 he may pull a reversal and just win the whole thing.

So if it's not Keselowski and it's not Stewart, then just who is going to win this week? Well, first I want to talk about one team in particular: Hendrick Motorsports. Jimmie Johnson is the only driver with a higher average finish than Stewart (10.4 in 19 starts, including three wins). Jeff Gordon was easily the best car last week and in 37 career starts he has 23 top-10s and an average finish of 12.5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr also has an average finish of 12.5 in 23 career starts and ten top-10s. While Mark Martin has been the forgotten guy this year and is nowhere near contention for anything, you can't ignore that he has 23 top-10s in 50 career starts. So out of all of them it came down to Johnson and Gordon. Johnson is tied for the lead in points even though no one is talking about him (where have I heard this before?) and Gordon wants to implement some nanny rules (credit goes to Jay Busbee of Yahoo!). Heads, I'll go with Johnson, tails and it's Gordon.

Heads? Alright, JJ you're up.

There are other contenders for the championship have strong histories at Atlanta, including Kurt Busch. Busch has an average finish of 18.0 and three top-5s. The reason I bring out those top-5s is that each of them were wins. Busch is in The Chase but could use a strong finish after coming in 38th, 34th, and 17th in the past three weeks. Carl Edwards has only 13 career starts but also has three victories, nine top-10s, and seven top-5s. Ryan Newman has seven career poles in 18 career starts but no wins. Matt Kenseth has the highest average finish of drivers who haven't won at Atlanta (13.0). Kyle Busch has 13 career starts at Atlanta and one win. That's not that bad, but when you take that race away he only has two other top-5 performances and no other top-10s. His career finish of 17.3 is low by his standard and he'll be looking to improve after last week's disappointing showing. Denny Hamlin will probably have his eyes on Richmond next week because he only has one top-5 in 11 tries. Kevin Harvick has six top-10s in 20 career starts but an average finish of 20.5 puts him in the land of Geoffrey Bodine and Steve Park.

So who has the best chance at spoiling the party for The Chase contenders? Well, the numbers point to Juan Pablo Montoya. Montoya has three top-5s and four top-10s in eight starts and an average finish of 17.1. While he is the ultimate boom or bust pick it seems like he and Atlanta click, and if he is anywhere near the front at the end you know he's going to go for the win and use the bumper if he needs to.