Roto Roundup Fantasy Football: Sleepers

Roto Roundup is a weekly feature highlighting fantasy players who are trending upward or downward over recent weeks. We'll identify players you should attempt to trade or trade for, as well as players you should pick up from free agency, or cut bait with and send to free agency.


We are continuing our fantasy football blowout with our sleepers. These are guys that will be drafted as fringe starters, if not backups. The both of us subscribe to the school of thought that sometimes it is better to take a risk than buying low-ceiling retreads (hello there, Jamal Lewis circa 2008 and 2009). Fantasy production is the second most inconsistent thing in the NFL behind ACLs. If you find yourself looking at a bland roster feel free to take a gamble on our guys. Who knows, maybe they will end up starting for your team (or your free agent wire).

Quarterback:


Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams, ADP: 113, Average Round: 12th

If you read our previous post you already know that I think Bradford is an immense bargain. The biggest thing you can give a young quarterback is a strong running game and few are better than Steven Jackson. It also doesn't hurt when the team upgrades his weapons with the additions of Mike Sims-Walker and a healthy Donnie Avery. In fact his favorite target, Danny Amendola, is also returning and will probably have an even better year out of the slot. Really, there's so much to like with Bradford and I didn't even touch on his schedule. He has a tough Week 16 matchup at Pittsburgh and that is when the majority of fantasy titles are decided. Don't be afraid if the initial numbers are rough as he starts off the year against Philadelphia, at the New York Giants, and against Baltimore, but he should round into form in the end. Draft with confidence but keep an eye on a capable backup for the early going and for that Steelers matchup.

Projection: 16 GS, 3,900 yards, 22 TD, 12 INT

- Scott

Matt Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions, ADP: 95

Stafford scares almost every fantasy owner there is, since he's seemingly made of glass, but this could be the year he turns it around.  When on the field, Stafford has shown flashes of greatness, and Shaun Hill directed the offense to strong success in his time on the field. While Mikel Leshoure has torn his achilles and is out for the season, Jahvid Best and Jerome Harrison will do a fine job at RB.  Calvin Johnson saw more targets towards the end of last year, and should continue to be forcefed the ball this year, and he has safety valves in the slot receiver (whether it's Titus Young or Nate Burleson), and Brandon Pettigrew/Tony Scheffler at TE.  The OL was actually above average as well last year, and should be at least average this year.  Look for Stafford to do big things this year, and make a profit for you as a QB regularly going in the 8th-9th round.  I would handcuff him with Shaun Hill personally just in case, and reap the benefits of the Lions offense this year.

Projection: 14 GS, 3,400 yards, 25 TD, 14 INT
 
 - Bryan

Runningback:

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears, ADP: 21, Average Round: 2

For some reason, Forte is being severely overlooked this season as a viable RB1.  I understand that Marion Barber may take some goal line carries, but Forte still accounted for 9 touchdowns himself last year.  Given how poor the Bears' O-Line was, he still rushed for over 4 yards a carry, which is solid.  Forte is the biggest threat out of the backfield though, and we all know Martz loves to throw the ball a lot.  He's basically a lock for 50+ catches, 500 yards, and a few touchdowns in the air.  Forte's versatility serves him well in a Bears offense without a dominant #1 option, and he may see even more passes without Greg Olsen there.  Don't hesitate to snatch up Forte, he'll give you at least 1,500 yards, around 8-10 TDs, and in PPR leagues may be a top 10 option.

Projection: 250 carries, 1,000 yards, 55 catches, 540 yards, 8 total TDs


- Bryan

CJ Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills, ADP: 93, Average Round: 10


Spiller has led to some interesting conversations between Bryan and I. Both of us love his potential and both of us also hate his situation. Fred Jackson is a very good running back, underrated if anything, and quite capable of holding down that starting job and the lion's share of carries for the foreseeable future. However, money does strange things to NFL teams and if you are paying CJ Spiller first round, top-10 pick money, you have to play him. Spiller is going to get plenty of touches and if he can stay healthy he has all of the talent to have a Jamaal Charles-like breakout. Few guys can break open an 80+ yard rushing TD and Spiller is among them. Thing is, that won't happen this year. If he doesn't get a long TD he likely won't get one at all because Jackson will get almost all of the goal line carries. Draft him as a lottery ticket and watch the Buffalo situation closely. If Jackson were to go down, Spiller would have the door wide open to start and the passing game is just good enough to keep opposing defenses from stacking the box. If your league counts return TDs you may have to reach a little bit, though.


Projection: 130 carries, 600 yards, 45 catches, 360 yards, 5 total TDs


- Scott


Wide Receiver:


Mario Manningham, WR, New York Giants, ADP: 73, Average Round: 9


Last year, I missed out on Manningham in every one of my drafts. Even though I had a gut feeling on the guy I always seemed to get outbid by someone else and I paid the price. This year, even if I have to reach a round early, I plan to own Super Mario somewhere. He was overlooked last year with Hakeem Nicks finally living up to his potential and Steve Smith coming off a 1200 yard season, but this year the door is wide open. Kevin Boss and Smith (as I was typing this the news broke that he has signed with the Philadelphia Eagles) have departed, and Nicks will draw a lot of attention coming off a campaign that included 11 touchdowns. Manningham won't exactly catch teams off guard after finishing the season with three straight 100+ yard games and four TDs but with the extra targets he may very well be the most productive NYG receiver. Reach for him or be prepared to regret it.


Projection: 72 catches, 1100 yards, 8 TDs

- Scott

Danny Amendola, WR, St. Louis Rams, ADP: 126, Average Round: 11

In order for Bradford to be a fantasy sleeper, he's going to have to rely on a go to receiver, and Amendola in the slot has become exactly that.  Danny is basically a poor man's Wes Welker in St. Louis' offense, and his surehandedness and agility have made him Bradford's favorite target.  Last year Danny had 85 receptions, and while they only went for 639 yards, he's a valuable PPR guy.  Those yard totals won't stay that low, as Bradford should have more confidence and will be allowed to throw the ball downfield more.  While the Rams brought in Austin Pettis, Mike Sims-Walker and other receivers, Amendola will see the most targets.  He also may add one or two TDs as a return man for the Rams, so there's upside at that end too.  If your league counts return yards, Amendola should go up your board a good amount.  Overall, in the 11th round, you won't find much better than the security blanket of a top-10 caliber QB.

Projection: 90 catches, 800 yards, 6 TDs

Tight End:



Chris Cooley, TE, Washington Redskins, ADP: 137,

Consistently, Chris Cooley gets criminally underrated, no matter the situation in Washington.  Currently, Terrell Owens, who is coming off a torn ACL is the player drafted directly after Chris Cooley.  When Cooley finishes a full season, he's one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL, consistently.  The main con of Cooley's fantasy stock is the lack of touchdowns he scores, as he has six in the past three years, but I look for that number to increase this year given the pieces on the Redskins offense.  Santana Moss is aging, and not a #1 receiver anymore, and Armstrong is mostly a deep threat as well.  Cooley should get his usual 70 catches, and approximately 800 yards, especially since he'll be a safety valve of John Beck or Rex Grossman.  Look for the TDs to increase though this year.

Projection: 74 catches, 790 yards, 7 TDs


Jared Cook, TE, Tennessee Titans, ADP: 157, Average Round: 15


Cook is the deepest kind of sleeper. No one except those in the deepest of leagues will likely give him a second glance come draft day. He could very well be a bargain, though, and may end up being a middle-to-low end starter. Matt Hasselbeck loves throwing to TEs (look at how trendy John Carlson was as a fantasy pick over the past few years) and with Bo Scaife's departure that means a whole lot of targets for Cook. As long as Jake Locker is held off you should expect Cook to average 3-5catches a game and at 6'5" he is going to be a great goal line target. If you miss out on the top guys or don't feel like playing "New England TE Roulette" go to Jared. At the least he should be a good plug-in matchup guy throughout the year.

Projection: 60 catches, 600 yards, 5 TDs


- Scott

Defense:

Tampa Bay, DEF, ADP: 198, Average Round: 19


When Bryan and I were talking defenses and I mentioned Tampa Bay, he told me to harp on three names. First is Gerald McCoy, the Bucs' first round pick last season. Some were comparing him to Ndamukong Suh, since both play DT and were at the top of their position last year. By comparison, Suh knocked out McCoy in the first round (66 tackles, 10 sacks vs. 28 tackles, 3 sacks), even though that is a bit unfair since McCoy was dinged up last year. After getting his feet wet and getting healthier he should be better, especially with the two new additions to the Bucs defensive line: Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers. Both of those guys have some health concerns, especially Bowers, but if this young line can grow up it will be one of the best in the NFL and rack up fantasy points. The secondary is a bit suspect with Aqib Talib's legal problems and Ronde Barber is another year old and the linebacking core will be missing Barrett Ruud but this defense will be decided by its front four. This group shouldn't be your starter but you'll be hard-pressed to find a better upside in a backup. Check to see who they play during your defense's bye week and give 'em a shot.


- Scott

 Kansas City, DEF, ADP: 180, Average Round: 15th


Nothing about the Chiefs is flashy (besides Jamaal Charles), but their defense is severely underrated.  Their cornerback tandem of Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr did a very solid job last season, and Flowers is one of the better young corners in the game.  Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson are good linebackers in their own right, with Hali being one of the more devastating pass rushers in the NFL.  The addition of Kelly Gregg (formerly of Baltimore) at NT will help the push of the front line, and there's definitely talent there, with Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey flanking him.  The Chiefs also have the luxury of facing Oakland and Denver four times, and neither offense should be all that flashy.  I don't know if I'd call the Chiefs a must-start defense, but you can do far, far worse for a bye week defense or situational start defense.

- Bryan