Today we are taking a bit of a departure from our normal Roto Roundup programming to help you prepare for your fantasy football drafts. While many in your leagues will be targeting guys big name rookies, like A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, and Cam Newton, the value will actually lie in last year's rookie class. After their initial shine has worn off many tend to shy away in fear of sophomore slumps or uncertain production, but these are the guys that can win or lose your fantasy championship. So in an effort to help out our readers I am going to give you a peak into my cheat sheet.
QB: Sam Bradford - Bradford, for all intents and purposes, exceeded expectations. He ended up 46th in Yahoo rankings and, more importantly, played the entire year. Right now in drafts he's going after guys like Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, and Kevin Kolb, while he is preferred to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton, and Mark Sanchez. I think that's a great value, because even though Bradford faded towards the end of last year, his Rams got a huge upgrade at wide receiver with the signing of Mike Sims-Walker. Donnie Avery is healthy (for now) and his favorite target, Danny Amendola, will be back once again. Be prepared to grab a good backup in case he runs out of steam or gets hurt, but draft him with confidence as your starter and enjoy the ride.
QB: Colt McCoy - I know, I know, Tim Tebow was the biggest name in that entire draft. For now, though, he is getting beat soundly in camp for the starting job by the underrated Kyle Orton and that almost knocks him off of the fantasy radar. McCoy, on the other hand, will be starting this year for the Cleveland Browns. McCoy posted an ugly 6/9 TD/INT ratio in eight starts, including six INTs in his final two games (granted they were against Baltimore and Pittsburgh). I must forewarn you that he will once again face the Ravens (in Baltimore) and Steelers in the final two weeks but I doubt anyone will be starting him by then (unless you are in the deepest of 2 QB leagues). The Browns did upgrade at wide receiver by drafting Greg Little but I don't think that will do much for McCoy's value. Draft or pick him up when your starter goes on a bye week if the matchup is right but don't expect him to win your week.
RB: LeGarrette Blount - Blount was undrafted due to character concerns but when he was given the starting job in Tampa Bay on Week 7 he took it and never looked back. The Bucs' backfield has been one that produces a lot of one year wonders but I think Blount is here to stay. He's a big, physical runner who won't help you much in PPR leagues but is well worth his ADP (37th, behind guys like Shonn Greene, Ryan Mathews, and Ahmad Bradshaw and ahead of Mark Ingram, Marshawn Lynch, and the Carolina duo). The Bucs as a whole are rising and if Raheem Morris decides to give him more goal line carries look for a season similar to Brandon Jacobs' 2008 (13 games, 1089 yards, 15 TDs).
RB: Ryan Mathews - Mathews, at a glance, seems as though he was a bit of a bust compared to his ADP. He was drafted consistently in the second or third rounds with some Chargers fans reaching as high as the tail end of the first. The reason for that inflated value was the combination of Mathews' talent, the respect that the Chargers offense has, and most importantly, Ryan's ability to make catches out of the backfield. Mathews saved his biggest game for last (when most leagues had already concluded their year), in a Week 17 matchup with the Broncos he rushed 26 times (the first time he had 20 or more rushes since Week 1) for 120 yards, 3 touchdowns, and he also chipped in three receptions for 19 yards. Though he had two fumbles, neither of them were lost. Look for Mathews to rebound and exceed his ADP of 35.
WR: Dez Bryant - Bryant was the most talented offensive player in last year's NFL draft. It seemed to be a perfect situation when he fell to the Cowboys at pick number 24. He didn't have to be the top guy (that title belongs to Miles Austin, for now), or even really the second guy (Jason Witten is Tony Romo's security blanket). Bryant missed the final four games of last year and was ineffective in the three games prior to that (a total of four catches for 22 yards and one TD) but this year he claims to be healthy and have a complete understanding of the playbook. Bryant is going around the 42nd pick in most drafts, sandwiched between two Philadelphia receivers (DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin). I think there is a very good chance we could see Hakeem Nicks-like numbers from Bryant starting this year. Except maybe against Philadelphia.
WR: Mike Williams (TB) - Everyone knew that Williams was talented. He had a lot of character issues but when he was on the field at Syracuse he made plays. As Tampa emerged last year, behind the stellar play of quarterback Josh Freeman, so did Williams. I touched on the goal line touches being an issue for Blount, and Mike Williams is exactly why. Williams scored eleven touchdowns last year and four of them came from less than 10 yards out. His ADP is inflated due to the touchdowns (33, ahead of the three guys I listed above, Marques Colston, Santonio Holmes, and Vincent Jackson) and I don't think he's quite on the level of the guys he has been drafted alongside (Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, Greg Jennings, and Mike Wallce) but he's still a great WR2. Just don't expect a repeat in double digit TDs and you won't pay the sticker price.
WR: Jordan Shipley - Shipley was a fantastic guy to have as a bye week starter last year, especially in PPR leagues. He only had one 100 yard game (against Atlanta, 6 catches for 131 yards) but plenty of his other games were serviceable. Last year the Bengals as a whole were a tire fire and truth be told they are probably going to be even worse this year. Carson Palmer is retired, Chad Ochocinco is gone, and Cedric Benson is going to basically face the entire world. A.J. Green will be the star of this offense but even his numbers will be limited (don't expect anything more than what Dez Bryant provided last year in limited action, even if Green plays the whole year). I'm not the biggest Andy Dalton fan in the world but I'll give him a chance. Shipley is barely on the fantasy radar, being drafted alongside dignitaries such as Arrelious Benn, Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Tate, and Roy Williams. He could be a great slot guy and useful in PPR leagues but that's about it.
TE: Jimmy Graham - I bet you expected me to pick Gronk and Hernandez. Let me say that as a Pats fan having both of those guys is a dream. Owning both of them in fantasy (which I did last year) was a nightmare. Both guys are immensely talented and either one can take over an entire game on a weekly basis but trust me when I say that you don't want to try and guess who Tom Brady will prefer on a week-to-week basis. Both of the NE tight ends are being drafted as low end starters and if either were to get injured, the healthy one's value would skyrocket. But the biggest contributor from this year's sophomore class will actually be the Saints' Jimmy Graham. If I had a dollar for every time Drew Brees said something complimentary of Graham last year I would have enough to buy a roll of scratch-and-win lottery tickets. Though his overall numbers seem lackluster and his best game wasn't jawdropping (Week 15 at Baltimore, 5 catches, 29 yards, 2 TDs) it was still one of the best games by a TE and it was at a crucial time in the fantasy playoffs. Graham followed up his two TD game with a TD in each of the following weeks to finish the year and is the clear starter this year following Jeremy Shockey's departure. If he and Brees get on the same page he may very well top the position in scoring.
K: No One - I was going to try and give some advice on kickers for amusement purposes but I have absolutely nothing. Just don't draft Ndamukong Suh to be your kicker or something, I guess. Speaking of...
DEF: Detroit - Let me start out by saying that you should not, under any circumstances, draft the Detroit defense to be your starter. Even with Suh, the addition of Nick Fairley, and about thirty DBs this offseason, their schedule is brutal. Their matchup against Oakland in Week 15 could propel many into their fantasy championships but you don't want to start them the next week (against San Diego) and you sure as hell don't want to start them the week after that (at Green Bay, unless they've locked up the division and Aaron Rodgers is limited, but even then they score, a lot). As a backup/matchup play defense you won't find any with as much upside as Detroit. I just can't believe we're talking about the Detroit Lions defense having fantasy relevance. My how times have changed.
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