NFL Free Agency: Roundtable Part 2

On Sun, Jul 31, 2011 at 9:47 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:

We touched on teams already and which teams have done well for themselves so far, but let's get more specific now Scott.  With hundreds of moves being made, some absolutely have to jump out at you for one reason or another.  Like I alluded to in Part 1, I'm absolutely stunned by the massive contracts that players who aren't elite have been handed.  Not only free agents, but even players acquired in trades have gotten hefty contracts too.  Which players do you think have been overpaid the most thus far in the 2011 offseason?

On Sun, Jul 31, 2011 at 10:13 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:

I think Eric Weddle becoming the NFL's highest paid safety is a severe overpayment. I get that AJ Smith had to retain him and Weddle is a fantastic young safety, but is he really the best in the league? Your casual football fans probably don't even know who he is, and though that isn't a great barometer of talent, I bet you they could at least guess many other positions correctly. Weddle has only been to one Pro Bowl and I just don't know if he can live up to that kind of contract.

Crazy as this may sound, Peyton Manning's contract bothers me. Sure, he took a pay cut from what Jim Irsay had publicly said he was worth but the fact that all $90 million of that is guaranteed if he just passes his physical? Even for one of the greatest to play the position, at age 35 coming off of neck surgery I just don't get it. I can't doubt Peyton's durability or track record and I know we may look back on this post one day with a good laugh after Peyton has obliterated every quarterback record there is, but I would be a bit antsy if I were a Colts fan. Don't give me this "it allowed the team to retain Joseph Addai!" mess, either. Everyone knows if Peyton wanted $150 million and told Irsay to bring back Addai at all costs so there wouldn't be anymore "God Dammit Donald" moments, the Colts would kick over some rocks and find the money.

Finally, since three's company I want to go out on a bit of a limb. I know you are probably raring to go and have some guys in mind so I am going to put on my swami cap and peek into the future. I predict that Antonio Cromartie will have a Brinks truck backed up to his house by someone. With every other major corner signed and the Jets desperate to retain his services, it's going to be a mess. The Redskins and Raiders have been in on the bidding and I can't imagine what the Jets would have to bring to the table to outbid Al Davis and Dan Snyder.

Who do you have, Bryan? Do you think any other free agents have broken the bank?

On Mon, Aug 1, 2011 at 10:22 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:

Looks like Cromartie didn't get overpaid too heavily actually at 4 years, $32 million.  Agreed on Weddle, but to be fair, Eric Berry is the highest paid NFL safety (6 years, near $60 million) as a function of last year's elevated rookie wages.  Still your point stands, Weddle is a very solid safety, but not elite enough to command that kind of paycheck.  And guaranteeing any player their entire contract for 5 years is insanity, I don't care if he's as durable as Peyton Manning, one bad injury and he's done.

You know that I didn't like the Charles Johnson signing too much, that's the worst contract yet I think this year.  Johnson had a great season last year, but rewarding one 11.5 sack season with a $72 million deal is pretty borderline crazy.  He's young, and the Panthers had to pay a premium because... well, they're the Panthers, not exactly a free agent destination, but it's still pretty tough to justify when they didn't pay Peppers last year.  In the same division, while I understand Tampa Bay has a lot of spending to do to get near the salary cap, they didn't have to go and pay their punter Michael Koenen $19 million over 6 years.  Based on the fact that he may only be on the field 70-80 times this season and he's making $3 million, that's ridiculous.

Kevin Kolb got the Matt Cassel treatment, and got a huge contract right upon being acquired, and I think they overpaid quite a bit.  Even Kolb was probably stunned when they offered him $63 million over 5 years.  He has yet to prove anything of substance, playing a couple games each year and having flashes of greatness as well as "God Dammit Kevin" moments.  He makes Larry Fitzgerald happy, so that's good, but they paid him $63 million and traded away their best corner and a 2nd rounder.  Far too much was invested in Kolb unless he is the next big thing at quarterback, so they better hope he is exactly that. 

As far as team friendly contracts, the Giants have made away like bandits so far.  Steve Smith and Mathias Kiwanuka both coming back on one year deals due to their injuries last year ends up looking great for the Giants, because both players need to build their stock back up.  Especially given the rumors of trading Osi Umenyiora, bringing back Kiwanuka was a huge deal.  I think they would have been well-served trying to sign some bigger names in addition, but they got good deals on both players rehabbing their value.  

The Lions got Stephen Tulloch on a one year deal for a mere $3.25 million, giving their linebacking unit some legitimacy, a big signing for them. They also re-signed Chris Houston at what I assume is a low rate as well.  The linebacking corps of Deandre Levy, Stephen Tulloch, and Justin Durant is at least average, if not slightly above average, so that's huge for the Lions. They don't need stars there when their defensive front is so powerful.  Tulloch gravitated towards his former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz in a big way and the Lions capitalized.  My opinion on their offseason has done a full 180 now, because Tulloch was who they needed.

Other one-year deals were great bargains as well, such as the Plaxico deal with the Jets (1 year, $3.017 million), and Cedric Benson re-upping with the Bengals for one more season.  Those moves involved very little risk, but surely some moves this offseason are extremely risky.  Which signings or trades do you think have the highest risk involved?

On Sun, Aug 1, 2011 at 11:55 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:

Any time a running back is nearing 30 is a risk. The Panthers threw caution to the wind and signed the 28 year old DeAngelo Williams to a 5 year, $43 million contract with $21 of it guaranteed. You and I have had discussions about this and I completely understand the rational behind it but this is more of an issue with the position than the player himself. We're all use to players being in their prime in their mid to late 20s, but with running backs it's the polar opposite. They're starting to come down on the other end of the bell curve and it doesn't help that DeAngelo has been nicked up.

I mentioned Peyton before, so I won't go too far in depth again, but I think his contract is also a risk. If he plays out the length of his contract (big if) you are paying for his 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 year old seasons. I don't care who you are or even if you're the greatest kicker to ever walk the Earth, I don't want any player during those years.

To continue my unorthodox picks, I think the biggest risk of the entire offseason is the Bears playing chicken with Olin Kreutz. Reportedly he is unhappy with Jerry Angelo's approach to talks because he was first offered a 50% pay cut and then told to make a decision in an hour. Earlier in the offseason he was getting calls from the 49ers but said he doesn't want to play for any team other than Chicago so now he may just retire. If the Bears lose Kreutz I cannot even begin to think of how many times Jay Cutler will be bulldozed this season.

We have talked quite a bit about the Kolb for Rodgers-Cromartie and a second rounder but that trade is immediately what I thought of when reading your email. I understand an above average quarterback is more valuable than just about anything in the NFL. Quarterbacks are marketable, they're usually the faces of their franchise, and they shelf life is much lengthier than a lot of positions if you can keep them upright. However, to trade a young, ball hawking corner (yes, he does make a lot of misreads and there are a lot of times you want your DB to just knock it down instead of going for the pick) and a second rounder for a guy with seven starts? Really? I don't see how it makes a lick of sense. I guess you're right, it makes Fitzgerald happy (though if I remember correctly he was clamoring for Marc Bulger before the lockout) and Kolb may be just good enough to win the NFC West.

On Sun, Aug 1, 2011 at 4:54 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:

Those are all definitely hefty risks.  I want to get Seattle in the mix here, because they're another team that like Carolina, isn't a free agent destination and has to overpay for players.  I can understand bringing in Tarvaris Jackson, but not as the starter and with Charlie Whitehurst as a backup.  That's beyond risky, it's a surefire way to ensure you're not making the playoffs.  Additionally, they paid DT Brandon Mebane as much as the much better Cullen Jenkins (5 years, $25 million for both) to make sure he stayed, because they don't have much of a pass rush anywhere else.  My biggest problem with their free agency was Sidney Rice though.  I know you love your former Gamecock WR, but I think you'd freely admit that his injury history and one transcendent season is troubling.  He's been pretty quiet unless he had a superb quarterback.  For some odd reason he really wants to work with Tarvaris Jackson again, so we'll see how that pans out.  Unless he's producing like he did in 2009, he's not worth $8 million a year at all.  They also lost C Chris Spencer to the Bears (there goes the playing chicken with Kreutz), so that eliminates that problem for the Bears, as Spencer is a solid center, but opens a new hole for the Seahawks.  I have to say I just don't understand what the hell Pete Carroll is doing.

Carolina paid Charles Johnson $12 million a year through 2016, a very huge risk.  Only $30 million is guaranteed, but that's a lot of money.  MLB Jon Beason is now the highest paid middle linebacker in the league at 5 years, $50 million, but he's at least one of the best at his position.  Johnson can't claim to be that yet.  They paid an old Olindo Mare 4 years and $12 million to kick, when Jon Kasay was a fine option in-house.  Again, I understand the need to overpay players because the Panthers aren't an attractive organization, but at a point, you need to know to cut bait in negotiations.  While the Panthers made the moves they needed to, and I respect them for that, I still question the money they're throwing around.