Debris Caution: Pure Michigan 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


You know how I said I love road courses? Yeah, Monday definitely did not disappoint. With that said, this week the NASCAR schedule pulls into Bryan's home state of Michigan for the Pure Michigan 400. It seems like every time you turn around NASCAR is at an oval but I digress. What you can expect this week is for the usual suspects but I am going to choose to start with someone who is on a roll right now.

Last week, Brad Keselowski was my opener and this week he will bat leadoff once again. Kes is white hot right now and it seems like the more beat up the guy is, the better he races. I'm not going to suggest throwing him in the ring with Georges St- Pierre, but maybe a jammed finger from a game of pickup basketball can do the trick. At any rate, Kes finished 25th when the Sprint Cup invaded Michigan earlier this year and his average finish of 27.5 in four races inspires little confidence. On the flip side, in the Nationwide Series he has two wins and three top-10s in five starts at MIS. Just like last week, expect Kes to buck the trend and post a top-10 this week at Michigan. If you hear about any sort of injury between now and Sunday, bump that up to a top-5.

There is absolutely no one better at Michigan than Carl Edwards. Edwards has 14 starts and 12 top-10s. Think about that for a moment. Nine of those were top-5s and two of those were wins. His average finish is 6.2 and he has finished every race. Both of his wins have come in the last five years and when looking only at that time period he is even more dominant (nine starts, eight top-10s, 6 top-5s, 2 wins, and an average finish of 4.9). After having sole possession of the points lead taken away by Kyle Busch last week, expect Edwards to come out at his best and make a statement by winning on Sunday.



It's no secret that Michigan is dominated by the Roush Fenway Fords. The only drivers that are close to Edwards in terms of success are his teammates Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle. Their overall numbers are dominating: Kenseth has an average finish of 9.5 in 24 races and Biffle sits at 12.4 in 17 starts. Both have also won twice, like Edwards, but there is one big difference. While Edwards improved in recent years, Kenseth and Biffle have slipped backwards. Kenseth's career finish of 9.5 drops to 12.1 in the last nine races at Michigan International and Biffle's goes from 12.4 to 14.9. Both are still respectable and both still have a lot of recent success (Kenseth finished second earlier this year to Denny Hamlin and has five top-5s in the past nine, Biffle has four top-10s in the same span). Both are capable of winning the race, but it's obvious that Jack Roush's stallion is the number 99, so I see him bringing home the trophy for RFR. Speaking of Kenseth, as an aside, would you have guessed that he is fifth in points? He also has one more win this year than Edwards (the biggest reason that Carl is in his position, however, is that he and Ryan Newman are the only members of the top ten without a single DNF all year).

So who will be a surprise contender? Given the power that Roush has displayed at Michigan, the obvious choice would be David Ragan. But I'm going to go with someone a bit different, and that would be Brian Vickers. This may seem like a reach, but when you look at the numbers it makes a whole lot of sense. He has seven races at Michigan in the past five years and in those he has finished in the top-10 six times. He usually starts near the front (average start of 9.8 for his career is only second behind Jimmie Johnson's 8.5 and he even has three poles in 13 starts) and Brian has never recorded a DNF at this track. To boot, one of his two career wins came at Michigan in 2009. I know I got burned by Red Bull Racing two weeks ago but Vickers is surest thing at Michigan this side of Roush's big three. Expect a showing similar to earlier this year (started fourth, finished tenth) and don't be surprised if he sneaks up to the front.