Debris Caution: Ford 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


The NASCAR season has come down to a single race, two drivers, and three points. Only Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards can win the Sprint Cup and the only way that either one can clinch is with a victory in the Ford 400. Even though Edwards has a three point lead, he could lead the most laps, finish second, and end up in a tie with Stewart (who would get 47 points versus Carl's 44). Stewart would then win the tiebreaker because he has more victories. It's simple for both drivers and each controls their own destiny at this point regardless of what the other does.

I previewed this last week but if there is one track that Edwards wanted to see, it's Homestead. Edwards is the best on the circuit at this track and his average finish over his career is 5.7. In seven races he has six top-10 finishes, four of those have gone for top-5s, and two have been wins. When you cut that to the past five years he actually improves to an average finish of 3.5 and both of his wins have come in that span. He's heads and shoulders above everyone else and by all intents and purposes it means that Stewart's only real shot is to win.

Tony's stats are nothing to sneeze at. He has 12 career starts and an average finish of 12.4. Half of his starts have ended in the top-10 with three going for top-5s and and two of those being victories. Unfortunately for Tony none of those have come in the past five years and when you look at the time frame his stats slip. Stewart's average finish drops to 17.2 and that's with two top-10s in four starts. Just from looking at the two drivers it seems like Edwards is the heavy favorite but remember that Tony has all of the momentum in the Chase. He's won four races since September 19th and Edwards' only win came in March as Las Vegas (oddly enough, Stewart came in second at that race). As you know, though, Edwards won this very race last year and many viewed it as a springboard towards championship contention this year.

So with all of that being said who will hoist the championship on Sunday? Well it's hard to argue against either of these guys at the moment. If I consider myself a jinx then I would probably go with Edwards (sorry Carl) because I'm a bit biased towards Tony Stewart. If I had to go with the guy I expect to win this race, though, I would actually have to go with Stewart. Carl is a lock for a top-5 finish while Tony is a bit of a wild card, but it just doesn't seem like Edwards can win a race this year. It's strange, before the Chase it was the #14 who had no momentum or ability to win a race and all of a sudden he sits on the cusp of pulling what would be a major upset. It would be fitting if Tony could bookend Jimmie Johnson's championship reign and I can honestly say that I'll be rooting for him. Hopefully he and Carl can fight for the win and finish 1/2 to cap off what has been one of the most exciting seasons in NASCAR history.

What's that? I danced around an answer to who I thought would win the championship? Well obviously I think Carl Edwards will.

Debris Caution: Kobalt Tools 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


Wow, you miss one week in the NASCAR season due to a power outage and you're more laps down than Joe Nemechek. By now you know all about the Kyle Busch controversy that surrounds he and Ron Hornaday. I'll also be blunt, seeing as I live in Pennsylvania it's impossibly tough to focus on NASCAR at the moment. I'll spare you the details but I will say that the firestorm that you may picture going on with Penn State (from fans to detractors, alums to those on the outside looking in) is dwarfed by the real thing. I won't go further into it because there's hundreds, if not thousands, of places for you to go to get information and opinions. Just bear with me if this post seems a bit scatterbrained, this blog is something that Bryan and I do in our spare time and at the moment it's nearly impossible for me to focus.

With the Sprint Cup series heading to Phoenix and Homestead for the final two races you would think that things shift heavily towards Carl Edwards' favor. He won both of these races last year and even though Tony Stewart won last week's race he wasn't able to make much of a dent in the points lead. It's crazy to think that Stewart has won four races in the Chase and still sits behind Edwards but that's a testament to how strong the #99 has been. At this point one of these two men will be the Sprint Cup champion so I'm going to dedicate this post just solely to the two of them. Let's take a look at their Phoenix International Raceway resumes and see who has the advantage.

Stewart has more experience at the track than Edwards (19 career starts vs. 14) but both are equal in other stats (Smoke has a slight upper hand with 10 top-10s to Edwards' 9, seven top-5s to five, Edwards has the only DNF between them and each have a win). Stewart has an average finish of 11.7 to Edwards' 13.0 but keep in mind that Stewart won at Phoenix in 1999, his rookie year. Stewart is easily the best driver on the circuit at the moment and with the momentum he has he's the heavy favorite to pull out a win this week. I think both drivers are poised for top-5 caliber days but I think Stewart absolutely needs to win this week to keep the pressure on Edwards or even pass him in the standings. Carl is the best driver on the planet at Homestead and his stats there (sneak peak for next week: 5.7 average finish) are eye-popping. Tony needs to get a bit of a nest egg before then and that means doing everything he can to win this race.

That's not to say that Smoke won't be driving the wheels off the #14 anyway but his recent success shrinks the already minuscule gap between he and Edwards. In the past five years Stewart has an average finish of 12.9 and Edwards sits at 13.7. Last year Tony failed to have a top-10 in either Phoenix race and as I mentioned, Edwards won this event. Not everything is bad for Smoke fans, though, Carl started on the pole at Phoenix earlier this year but finished 28th. Tony went on to post a 7th place finish and if that happens once again we could very well see a scenario where Smoke just has come in the top-15 or so to win a championship. Of course, it's highly unlikely that Edwards fudges up once again and he likely realizes that he controls his own destiny at this point. It should be a fun showdown between two of NASCAR's best and it's fun to finally have a tight points battle once again. Sure, last year was kind of close until the end but nothing close to this. Kudos to the new points system, NASCAR, though I still don't care for the Chase.

Debris Caution: TUMS Fast Relief 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.

I guess I'm cursed. Heading into Sunday's race at Talladega it seemed that Kevin Harvick was going to be a virtual lock for a top-10 finish at least. If nothing else he had avoided the big wrecks and always came out unscathed. Well, we all know how that turned out and even though it was a Richard Childress Racing car in Victory Lane that did little to improve my mood. Harvick has sunk like a stone to fifth and though he's not out of it, he's currently in limbo at 26 points out of first. He's the last of the drivers that have a realistic chance but it's at the longest of shots.

With the Sprint Cup series heading to Martinsville this week it seems that we are going to see a Jack Roush championship for the first time since 2004. Kurt Busch won the very first Nextel Cup and the previous year it was Matt Kenseth who took home the final Winston Cup. Right now Carl Edwards is points leader and his closest competitor is Matt Kenseth who is 14 points out. Just about the only thing I've gotten right in this Chase has been that I thought Edwards would be the highest finishing Roush car but knowing my luck we'll see Kenseth make a run starting this week. Edwards hasn't found much success at Martinsville, with only four top-10s in 14 career starts, one of those going for a top-5, and an average finish of 16.9. However, if there's anything we have learned about Edwards it's that this year he is content to put in a strong finish even if he isn't competing for a win. His finishes in the Chase has been 4th, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 3rd, and 11th and he hasn't been a threat to really win any of those races. That's the mark of a champion-to-be but he has to continue the trend with the man who made consistency a bad word nipping on his heels. 

Kenseth has been more up-and-down than Edwards in the Chase. His finishes so far are 21st, 6th, 5th, 4th, 1st, and 18th last week. Even with that run of four top-5s he barely made a dent in Edwards' lead. Right now he's in second mostly because the other drivers around him (Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart) have had some bad finishes. Kenseth has never won in 23 starts at Martinsville and he only has seven top-10s, two top-5s, and an average finish of 15.8. Even with the trends going against them at this track it's highly likely that we'll see both of them in the top-10. I don't think either of these two will challenge for the win but I don't think anyone will jump up and surpass either of them in the points. Then again, if Edwards has a DNF here it leaves the door wide open for anyone to jump up and make this thing exciting.

Brad Keselowski and Tony Stewart are only 18 and 19 points behind Carl Edwards respectively and represent the two best chances to have a non-Roush championship. Kes has only raced three times in the Sprint Cup at Martinsville and he has an average finish of 13.7 with one top-10. Stewart has two wins but none of those have come in the last five years and his recent finishes (16.3 average finish) are off the pace of his all-time success (13.9 average finish, 13 top-10s in 25 starts). Both of these drivers know if they want to gain even an inch of ground that they have to finish in the top-5 or win and I think that the both of them could gamble a bit. Stewart is more likely to take a risk but I don't doubt that if Brad is in a spot to win the race that he wouldn't stay out on a late pit stop sequence. Both of them should be near the front mixing it up with the #99 and #17 but I think one of the top four is going to face some adversity. I'm not quite sure who it will be but someone is going to fall off the pace methinks.

Debris Caution: Good Sam Club 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.

Jimmie Johnson's late race crash may have also tanked his Sprint Cup aspirations. Johnson lost five spots in the Chase and now sits 35 points out. I'll never count out the #48 team, they've proven time and time again that they can come back from anything, but this is different. While reigning as champion Johnson has never made the killer mistakes and could always salvage any sort if issue. Things are now completely out of his hands and that's definitely not a position you want to be in at this point. 

However, he's still far better off than my championship pick, Jeff Gordon. I'm finally willing to say it, after being bullheaded the past few weeks (and holding an optimistic outlook that bordered on insanity): he's done. He is absolutely, unequivocally done and I don't understand it. Gordon rebounded to have more wins than his past three seasons combined and everything seemed to be clicking. The Chase schedule was very kind to the #24 and though his splits a bit rough when you go from lifetime down to the past ten years and then down to the past five, he's still one of the most talented drivers in the circuit. It's crazy to expect a single stable to win a championship every year but it is a bit of a disappointment for Hendrick Motorsports to have such a poor showing in the Chase this year. I haven't even touched on Dale Earnhardt Jr. but seriously, who expected him to really make a run? 

Their loss, however, is Roush Fenway Racing's gain. Carl Edwards sits atop the points standings and after a win last week Matt Kenseth has vaulted into third. Edwards is scheduled to be a free agent after the season ends but I think a championship would actually make things easier for Roush negotiations. It's awfully hard to leave after winning a title and though they will face stiff competition from Joe Gibbs Racing for his services I don't think there's any way that Jack Roush will let his best driver slip away. That's doubly so if he hoists the Sprint Cup in a few weeks and don't forget that he won the last two races last year (at Phoenix and Homestead respectively). 

Before that, though, there's a race this weekend at Talladega. More-so than any race left on the docket, this is the biggest equalizer and wild card left. You can almost always set your clock for there being a huge pile-up that collects a few Chase drivers. If you're Edwards, Kenseth, or Kevin Harvick you obviously want a win, but the next best thing would be to get out of here with a car that's still running and avoid the "Big One." Edwards is the weakest of the three, in 14 starts he has four top-10s, one top-5, and four DNFs. His average finish of 20.9 actually puts him in a dead even tie with his teammate, Greg Biffile, as the lowest among the RFR cars. Harvick is only five points behind Edwards in points and he's actually one of the best in the series at this track. In his past 19 races at the track (which accounts for the past ten years) he has ten top-10s, six top-5s, a win, and the third highest average finish at 13.5 (you could actually say he's first, the two guys ahead of have six combined races [Geoff Bodine has one, Joey Logano has the other five]). I wouldn't be surprised if Harvick ended up leading the points when it's all said and done and he's also a strong, safe bet to win and run well, if for no other reason than he finishes (zero DNFs). Kenseth, for reference, is marginally better than Edwards in his past 19 starts: four top-10s, two top-5s, four DNFs, average finish of 20.7.

Last week's biggest mover in points was Kyle Busch, who gained four spots and now sits only 18 points out of first. He'll still need Edwards to come back a bit because you can only gain so many points if you're both in the top-5 or 10. Talladega isn't exactly Kyle's best track and he's the worst of Chase qualified drivers in average finish (24.2). He has 13 career starts and two top-10s, one of which went for a win, but the biggest number is the DNFs: five. As we all learned last week, one bad crash that drops you from being in third or fourth to thirty something can be devastating. If Busch wants to reverse his Chase misfortunes he absolutely has to get out of this race intact. Right behind him is Tony Stewart and he is the polar opposite. Smoke has eight top-10s, six of which have gone for top-5s, and a win in his past nineteen races. His average finish of 16.4 is among the best at such a volatile track and I think he's also another strong bet to run well on Sunday. He has four DNFs but that's to be expected of anyone who isn't Robo-Harvick at this track (I also want to note that in his career he has six more starts and only a single additional DNF).

Next up are a pair of teammates, Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch. I feel like a broken record but once again we can toss out the book on the Blue Deuce. Kes has five career starts with three being top-10s and a win that came in 2009. He's been a bit all over the place in the Chase but I think he'll have a strong showing on Sunday, perhaps upstaging his own teammate. Kurt, on the other hand, is one of the most consistent drivers at this track. Go ahead and pencil him in for a top-10 (12 in his past 19, highest ratio of anyone in the series), maybe a top-5 (five), but don't get too crazy (zero wins). I think the Penske cars will outdo the Roush cars but I don't expect any of them to win. 

After all of that we finally come back to Johnson. Johnson is in purgatory at the moment, being eight points behind Kurt Busch and 25 points ahead of his next closest competitor. He sits 35 points out with five races to go but if there's anyone who can turn the deficit into a cup, it's him. Can he make up seven points over each of the next five races? Absolutely. Will he? Eh, talk to me after this week. He has the most DNFs of anyone in the Sprint Cup the past ten years (his seven are only behind Martin Truex Jr. and Joe Nemechek, who have eight). It was absolutely paramount that JJ have a strong finish last week because this has traditionally been his mulligan track. To his credit, though, nine of the other 12 starts were top-10s, five of those were top-5s, and two were wins. 

After Johnson is basically the land of broken dreams. Dale Jr., Ryan Newman, Gordon, and Denny Hamlin are all well out of contention but of course they're all threats to win on any given week. Well, except Dale Jr. but if he is going to finally break his streak it's a very good chance it will be this Sunday. Jr. has four wins in his past 19 starts and that puts him in a tie with Gordon for the most in the series. Newman has nearly as many DNFs as top-10s (six to seven) so just write him off as a guy whose luck will likely land him in a wreck. Hamlin is interesting in a small sample size, 11 starts, four top-10s with three of those being top-5s, but I'll be honest, no one cares. The #11 has done squat this year after almost being the guy who dethroned Johnson last year and anyone who is holding their breath for him to break through this year may as well be committing suicide.

So all of that writing and I didn't pick a winner. Well, I'll be honest, I have a tough time gauging this race. Johnson could spring back to life and win this week, Gordon could surprise everyone and do something relevant in the Chase, Dale Jr. could finally get his first win, one of the Roush cars may surprise everyone, or Kyle Busch could run away with it. Anything can happen at Talladega and because of that I'm going to take the coward's way out and go with the guy who won't fall off a cliff and embarrass me. I'm going to go with the #29 to win and jump to first in points, scoring a huge shift in momentum that could lead to his first Sprint Cup. That's right, I've given Kevin Harvick the kiss of death and doomed him to score his first DNF at Talladega, but hopefully he reverses my fortunes. 

As far as non-contenders who can score an upset, I mentioned Logano earlier. In five starts he has four top-10s and he may fall over himself and win this Sunday if he can avoid trouble (the other start was a DNF). I also like Juan Pablo Montoya to do well. Montoya has run well at superspeedways and he has three top-5s in nine starts. Clint Bowyer actually won this race last year but I don't think that anyone is expecting a repeat. These three should be near the top of the scoring pole regardless and don't be surprised if any, or all of them become major factors.

Debris Caution: Bank of America 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.

So last week it was looking like Jeff Gordon would get a strong finish that would catapult him near the top of the Sprint Cup standings. Gordon has been a bit like a rubber band so far in this Chase so it was only fitting that he blew up and not sits tenth in the standings. That's how things go unfortunately but it may have stuck a fork in Gordon's championship dreams. Of course he can still rebound and a strong finish this week in Charlotte isn't out of the realm of possibility, but if he follows his status quo he'll do well this week before blowing up at Talladega next week. I'm not quite ready to concede that I picked the wrong horse in this race but I will admit that I have been considering other possibilities. Especially now that Gordon doesn't control his own destiny and would require the guys ahead of him to stumble a bit and come backwards in the standings.

So this week the Chase is in Charlotte for the Bank of America 500. Bank of America could use the publicity of the race to take away the fact that simply searching them on Google leads to thousands of angry posts about their new debit card fee policy. On top of that, they're also facing down a bill in Congress and...I'll just go ahead and stop now, this is a sports blog, not a political one. So yeah, Charlotte is this week. This is a track that caters to one driver more than anyone else, especially in Chase time, and that's Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has started 20 races at Charlotte and won six of them. To go with those six wins he has another four top-5s (10 total) and four other finishes in the top-10 (14 total). His average finish of 10.8 is the second highest behind only Joey Logano, but Logano only has five starts by comparison. Johnson is coming off of a victory last week and he sits third in points, four behind Carl Edwards. This could be a statement victory for Johnson as he attempts to put away his sixth consecutive championship and that's why I will pick him to win this weekend. He also could use a great start this week with the chaotic nature of Talladega and his tendency to get caught in the "Big One."

So what about the two men ahead of Johnson in points? Carl Edwards is no slouch at Charlotte, with over half of his starts (seven out of 13) going for top-10s. Four of those have been top-5s but he has never won at this track. His 13.3 average finish is behind only Johnson and Logano (I won't count Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s one start) so this could be yet another strong finish for Carl. Kevin Harvick, on the other hand, has struggled at this track. Stop me if you've heard this before, but in 21 starts he only has five top-10s and two top-5s. Granted one of those was a win but his average finish of 19.1 puts him behind the vast majority of Chase drivers. The thing about Harvick, especially this year, is that he doesn't have the flashy numbers but he always finds himself near the front. I would say he was like Matt Kenseth during his championship run but at least Harvick has won some races. I think he'll finish last among the top three, though, but it should still equal a top-10 finish.

Next up are the drivers who are on the cusp of jumping into the top of the standings but need a little bit of help. Brad Keselowski is 11 behind and let's just ignore his four starts (average finish of 19.5). Right now he is the biggest wildcard in the standings because no one quite knows what to expect each week from the "Blue Deuce." I would call for another top-10 finish that would keep him looming largely over the points race but fail to make up any significant amount of ground. Matt Kenseth is next and he is only one point behind Keselowski and 12 out of the top spot. Kenseth has 12 top-10s in 24 career races and that's what you can look for this weekend from the #17. Just keep an eye on him, because he does have the highest percentage of DNFs (21%). Kurt Busch suffered a setback after winning two weeks ago and finds himself in sixth place, 16 points out of first. This is actually one of his weakest tracks and he's the second worst in average finish among those in the Chase (19.7 average finish, 22 starts and only six top-10s). I won't count Kurt out, even at a track that he struggles with, but I don't think he'll make up any ground in the standings. Finally, we round out the top eight with Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch. Stewart is actually right behind Edwards in average finish (13.8) and he has 11 top-10s in 25 starts. Kyle has eight top-10s in 15 career starts by comparison. These two will be the biggest movers on Saturday and I think that both will end up in the top-5 in the standings after it is all said and done (with Keselowski, Kenseth, and Kurt Busch falling back).

The final four drivers in the Chase are all on life support, including my pick, Jeff Gordon. Gordon has 20 top-10s in 37 starts and has also won five times at Charlotte. Past success won't help much, though, and anything short of a top-5 finish or better could stick a fork in him. In fact, he's actually behind Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the standings (four points to be exact, 43 and 47 behind Edwards respectively). Jr's average finish of 19.4 doesn't instill much confidence and it's highly unlikely that he'll contend on Sunday. I do think he'll make a "last stand" of sorts next week but don't expect a lot here. Finally we have Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin, both of which are all but mathematically eliminated at this point. Newman is 54 points out of first and Hamlin is 79 behind and neither has done much at Charlotte. Newman is the only driver behind Kurt Busch in average finish (20.9) and that's even with his ability to start out front (nine poles). Hamlin has fared better at 16.6 but he's only cracked the top-5 once in 12 starts.

As far as a driver outside of the Chase to be on the lookout for, keep your eye on Kasey Kahne. Kahne has seven top-10s in 15 career starts and he has also won three times. He has said that he wants to win a race before the end of the year for Red Bull Racing and I think he has a great shot at doing just that. It wouldn't surprise me if he is the highest finisher of the non-Chase drivers but it would be a bit of an upset to see him roll into victory lane. It may be the best shot that the field has to upset the top-12 for the rest of the season.

Debris Caution: Hollywood Casino 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


Before getting into the race preview, I want to toss in my two cents on Clint Bowyer's decision. By now you've probably heard that Bowyer will be taking his talents to Michael Waltrip Racing next year. I've read a wide array of opinions on this move, some that say it's a fantastic move with an up and coming group and others that say it's just about the worst choice he could have made. It's unlikely that Bowyer will match his success at RCR with MWR but it wouldn't surprise me if he is the best car in the team. There will be some growing pains but I think that Clint is talented enough to be a fringy Chase contender in a few years.

Now onto this week's stop in Kansas, the Hollywood Casino 400. Kansas was repaved recently and we'll have to see how drivers respond. Right now there are some drivers that are in red alert mode and they will need strong finishes to just improve their odds. So let's just go ahead and look at the drivers who are more than 20 points out of the lead. Denny Hamlin sits 68 points out of first and has been treading water since the Chase started. It doesn't help that he has an average finish of 15.7 and only two top-5s (which account for both of his top-10s). He may not be the worst Chase finisher on Sunday but it's likely that he will find himself further back in the points race. Ryan Newman is 41 points out and this may be a track where he rebounds a bit. Newman has an average finish of 17.3 but he has won at this track. Newman's other stats are nothing to sneeze at (two other top-5s and four top-10s) but let's not kid ourselves: he's racing for pride at this point. Then there's Dale Earnhardt Jr., who is 34 points behind Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards. Dale Jr. hasn't had a lot of success at Kansas but he has been somewhat consistent. His average finish is a tick below Newman (17.5) and in eleven starts he has five top-10s. The two DNFs are worrisome (which tie him with Newman and Matt Kenseth for the most among Chase eligible drivers) but this may be a track where Jr. can get some confidence back. Don't forget that he came in second in June and was driving the wheels off of the #88 in an attempt to catch Brad Keselowski.

Continuing to work our way up we find my championship pick, Jeff Gordon. Gordon is trying his best to be a rubber band with the way he moves up and down these standings on a week-to-week basis. Right now he's only 19 points back but needs a good showing on Sunday to get back into the thick of things. It doesn't hurt that he's tops among active drivers in average finish (8.1). Gordon is an absolute model of consistency: in 11 starts he has nine top-10s, eight top-5s, and two wins. One of the other two starts he failed to finish but this is a track that absolutely couldn't have come at a better time for the #24 team. If Gordon is going to capture his fifth championship he absolutely needs a win at Kansas. So I'll stick to my guns and also pick him to win on Sunday.

Kyle Busch finds himself 15 points out but doesn't it almost seem like it should be more than that? Kyle has been awfully quiet in the Chase and this week's location won't help. He's last among active drivers in  average finish (eight races, 22.4) and he only has one top-10. Now remember, his brother Kurt struggled at Dover and went out and won last week, so we can never count out a Busch brother. I just have a hard time seeing Kyle winning this week or  going on much of a run in general for the championship. Matt Kenseth is one point ahead of Busch and he's had some success at Kansas. In eleven starts he has five top-10s and two top-5s to go with an average finish of 19.3. Brad Keselowski won at Kansas in June and that is the only finish he has of note in three starts. He's tied with Kenseth at 14 points out and I think he will finish ahead of Matt on Sunday to break the tie.

Debris Caution: AAA 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


So far the Chase has been the Tony Stewart winning extravaganza. After going winless during the "regular season," Smoke has reeled off two straight victories that have propelled him to the top of the Sprint Cup standings. The biggest losers last week were Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman, who both lost five spots in the points. As the series heads to Dover, Delaware it's obvious that some drivers are going to need to play catchup at the Monster Mile.

Seeing as I live in Pennsylvania I get daily commercials for Dover International Speedway. These ads feature drivers talking about how they like the track and the area but the final part shows Tony Stewart's wrecked at the track where he flipped three or so times. So obviously Stewart has some bad memories from the track but right now he's the man to beat. He's won twice at Dover but neither of those are in the past 10 years. His career finish of 12.5 with ten top-5s in 25 starts show that he's a threat to win once again but I don't think he'll pull off a three-peat.

The man only seven points behind Stewart, Kevin Harvick, has struggled at Dover. Harvick has 21 career starts at the Monster Mile and only eight top-10s (two top-5s, zero wins). This is probably the worst track for Harvick that's left on the schedule but if he can salvage a decent finish it may be the biggest boost the #29 team could ask for. Brad Keselowski is third in points, eleven behind Stewart, and once again throw out the stats for this guy. Kes has only three starts, no top-10s, and an average finish of 17.7 (for reference Harvick's is 17.0) but as we have learned the "Blue Deuce" is always one of the best cars on the track. I think that Kes will finish ahead of Harvick and in the end also pass him in the points race, though they're in danger of being leapfrogged by the next two guys.

Debris Caution: Sylvania 300

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.

This week the Chase takes us to New Hampshire for the second race in NASCAR's "playoffs." This is a race that can become a launching pad for a championship run or end one's chances dead in their tracks. There is one driver who desperately needs a shot in the arm to stay afloat and that is Denny Hamlin, who is currently 41 points behind Kevin Harvick. Hamlin came in 31st last week and was never really competitive all day. Hamlin is actually one of the best at New Hampshire, though, and his average finish of 7.2 in 11 races puts him at the top for active drivers. He has eight top-10s in only 11 starts and one win, and because of that he must be thanking his lucky stars to see this track on the schedule. Given his season long struggles he's a lot like Tony Stewart last week, it would be an upset to see him win but this may be a statement race for the #11 team as they hope to rebound.

If there's a driver that personifies consistency at New Hampshire, though, it has to be Jimmie Johnson. Last week he had a car capable of winning the race and was near the front all day until he ran out of fuel on the final lap and ended up with a "disappointing" tenth place finish. At NHMS, though, he is second only to Hamlin in average finish (9.6) and has 13 top-10s in 19 career starts. Seven of those were top-5 finishes and three of those were wins. Right now Jimmie is sitting in eighth, 16 points behind Kevin Harvick and this is a track where he can make up a lot of ground. I expect him to be near the front all day and potentially win the race but he isn't my pick to win. 

Tony Stewart and teammate Ryan Newman will have the cars to beat this weekend. Stewart couldn't have picked a better time to win his first race of the year (as I said, not a shocker) and these two drivers are fifth and sixth in average finish (Newman is at 12.4 and Stewart at 13.3). Newman is tied with Johnson with the most top-10s in the past ten years (13) and has won three times at the track (tying him with Johnson and another driver we're going to touch on in a second). Stewart, on the other hand, has ten top-10s of his own and has won once, but he leads all active drivers with nine top-10s in the past ten years. This team currently carries the momentum and Newman actually won the race at New Hampshire in June (Stewart came in second). I think that these two, along with Johnson, have the best chances of winning this weekend but I am going to ride the hot hand and go with Tony Stewart to win back-to-back and put himself in the catbird seat for the Chase.

The guy I was mentioning earlier with three wins? That would be none other than Kurt Busch. He is the other drive who has won at this track three times in the past ten years and he is fourth in average finish (11.6). His 11 top-10s in his past 19 races at the track show that he is going to be a strong contender at this track and he could just as easily win once here in NHMS once again. Speaking of contenders, I couldn't skip over my championship pick, Jeff Gordon. Gordon has six top-5s (eight top-10s) in his past 19 races but no wins. His average finish of 11.5 puts him third, behind Hamlin and Johnson and just above Kurt Busch. Gordon needs a solid effort to get back into the thick of things after what happened last week. Keep an eye on the #24, if he wants to win number five then he needs to make a statement.

Taking a look at the other Chase contenders, you'll see all sorts of things. Carl Edwards only has two top-5s (which account for his only top-10s) in 14 starts. Kevin Harvick has won here before and has ten top-10s in 19 starts. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has six top-5s in his past 19 starts but no wins at the track. Matt Kenseth has 11 top-10s for his career at the track but his average finish of 14.4 puts him in a tie with Carl Edwards. Kyle Busch seems to be the epitome of boom-or-bust, he only has 13 career starts at the track but six of them have gone for top-10s (four top-5s and a win) but his average finish of 16.3 is one of the lowest of Chase qualified drivers. Finally, there's Brad Keselowski, who as we've learned you can't count out anywhere and you may as well ignore his career stats. In only four races at New Hampshire he has one top-10s and an average finish of 21.2.

So, of the drivers who are ineligible for the Chase, who has the best shot to pull an upset? Well, Clint Bowyer has won at this track twice and he could be racing for future employment. However, his average finish of 16.2 shows that he'll either win the race or be a total bust. Instead, I'm going to take a bit of a reach and go with Joey Logano, another former winner. Logano has three top-10s in six career starts and an average finish of 17.0 is lowered by the fact that he has one DNF. Hamlin is one of the best at this track and I can't say enough for how important it is for a young driver to learn from a successful teammate. Don't be surprised if he's near the front and has a quiet day while everyone is paying attention to the guys in the Chase.

Debris Caution: GEICO 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


This week the schedule heads north to Illinois for the GEICO 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. This is the first race in the Chase and many of the contenders have past success at this track. Though it's still race number one in the "postseason" there is still plenty at stake and a bad finish at this track can potentially sink someone's chances. Before I get to the race preview here are my picks to finish in the top-5 at the end of the year.

5) Kyle Busch - "Rowdy Kyle" supposedly "matured" this year and has raced with more patience. I'm not quite sure if I believe the maturation part but the results have shown on the track. Like Harvick, he has four wins and his 16 top-10s are second (only one behind Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson) and 13 top-5s lead all drivers. The thing about Kyle is this: he still tends to be his worst enemy. He has the most DNFs of any driver in the Chase (three) and only has one win in five Chase appearances. I still think he's a year away from fully rounding to form but he's still a threat to win anywhere, anytime.


4) Carl Edwards - He has been the model of consistency all year. Those 17 top-10 finishes and 12 top-5s show that he is almost always in a race even if he doesn't have the car to beat. Along with Ryan Newman they are the only two drivers in the Chase not to record a single DNF. In Carl's six times as a Chase driver he has won eight times, which is second all-time. I don't think he can pull off a championship for Roush but he should finish in the top-5 and ahead of his teammate, Matt Kenseth.

3) Kevin Harvick - Harvick would have won last year's Sprint Cup under the old points system with weeks to spare. This year he heads into the Chase tied with Kyle Busch for the lead (thanks to his four victories) and with a huge boost in momentum coming off of last week's victory at Richmond. Harvick only has two wins in his five Chase appearances but as we all know, momentum can cancel everything in the numbers column. I don't think this will be the last time we see Harvick leading in the points during the Chase but I do think he will fall just short.


2) Jimmie Johnson - Surprised? Don't be. Yes, Jimmie has 19 career Chase wins. He is also the only driver to make the Chase all eight times since its inception. As though a switch has been flipped on, when it comes to crunch time, Jimmie is nearly unstoppable. However, something seems a bit off this year. Even though he has 17 top-10s and 11 top-5s, he has only won once this year and that was way back in May. When he wins his sixth title I'll probably feel silly for posting this but for right now just call it a hunch.


1) Jeff Gordon - He's back. After watching just how dominant Gordon has been, even in races where he didn't have the best car and didn't win, I just have to think this is the year he gets that elusive fifth championship. He's already won three times this year and he has 10 top-5s (to go with 14 top-10s). It doesn't hurt that coming into the Chase he has finished 2nd, 6th, 13th, 6th, 3rd, 1st, and 3rd. Everyone talks about Brad Keselowski's amazing run but Gordon's has been just as great, if not better. I'm sure that Hendrick Motorsports wouldn't mind if the Sprint Cup found its way back to their once again by way of the 24.

Debris Caution: Wonderful Pistachios 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


NASCAR heads to Richmond this week for what will be the final race before the Chase. Richmond's races have traditionally been under the lights and with such high stakes involved it leads to some great racing. Unfortunately the field for The Chase is all but set, I mean look at the clinch scenarios for the final two top-10 spots:

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Finish 20th or better, 21st or better and lead one lap, 22nd or better and lead most laps

Tony Stewart: Finish 18th or better, 19th or better and lead one lap, 20th or better and lead the most laps

And that is without any help. Denny Hamlin is also pretty secure but if Paul Menard wins or Marcos Ambrose wins makes it into 20th and wins (he currently is 21st, seven points behind Menard and ten behind Mark Martin). David Ragan could also throw a wrench into things, he sits 23rd in points, twenty behind Menard, but if he were to win Saturday he would rapidly close the gap. There is a cluster of winless drivers that are mathematically in it, which include: A.J. Allmendinger, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne, Joey Logano, Mark Martin, and Juan Pablo Montoya. Out of that group your best bets to make some noise are Allmendinger and Bowyer.

So who are the best bets to finish the "regular season" strong? Well, if it's Richmond, that's Kyle Busch territory. No one is even close to Busch and you know that he wouldn't mind adding another win to his Cup leading total of four. In 13 career starts Busch has 11 top-5s (which account for all of his top-10s), zero DNFs, and three wins (Jimmie Johnson has also won three times, but his average finish is 11.2 and that's without a single DNF). His average finish of 4.9 is heads and shoulders above everyone else and he's my pick to win this weekend. I know, shocker, but I fully expect Busch to be at his best on Saturday night and it doesn't hurt that he won the Richmond race earlier this year.

If it's not Busch, then it may very well be his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin. Hamlin won this event last year and he is only one of three drivers with an average career finish under 10 (7.5). In eleven starts he has seven top-10s, six of which have gone for top-5s, and two wins. Hamlin needs this race a lot worse than his teammate, but as long as one of them wins it should cinch up Hamlin's spot in the Chase. Don't count out their teammate, Joey Logano, either: he only has five starts but one top-5 and and an average finish of 12.8. If nothing else he should be right on the cusp of a top-10 finish. Because of JGR's dominance at this track, Joey is also my dark horse pick to make some noise on Saturday.

If there are two drivers that need this race more than Hamlin, it would have to be Clint Bowyer and Paul Menard. Bowyer is the third member of the prestigious "single-digit average career finish" club at 9.5. He has 11 career starts and six of those have gone for top-10s and one of those was a win. Bowyer would need to win this weekend and it's going to be a tall task, but he should be near the front and that means there could be some chippy racing near the front. Just don't let Bowyer near Juan Pablo Montoya and he should be fine. Menard, on the other hand, hasn't enjoyed any success at Richmond. Menard has nine career starts and none of those ended in top-10s and his average finish is 28.3. To say that his chances are slim would be an understatement, but then again, who would of picked Menard to win the Brickyard 400 (I did have him on my fantasy team, though!).

A.J. Allmendinger finished seventh in the spring race and has another top-10 in nine career starts. Allmendinger only has a career finish of 23.7, but this has been the year of the first time winner. His teammate, Marcos Ambrose, can attest to that. Ambrose has an outside shot at the Chase if he can pull off an upset victory, but he may actually have a better chance than his teammate despite the fact that he's eight spots behind him in points. Ambrose has two top-10s in five career starts and one of those was a top-5. His career finish of 14.0 puts him in ninth place among active drivers, though his average start of 21.0 is the second lowest of top-20 average finishers (Matt Kenseth is the only driver that is worse at qualifying for Richmond: 21.5). If nothing else, it has been a fantastic rebound for Richard Petty Motorsports and the future is bright for a group that almost had to close shop a year ago.

Debris Caution: AdvoCare 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


I remember when Atlanta Motor Speedway was rebuilt in 1997. In case you don't, basically the frontstretch and the backstretch were swapped in an attempt to standardize the track like other ovals that Speedway Motorsports owns. There were some other alterations as well but that change still sticks out to me. To say that Atlanta is a tradition on the NASCAR circuit would be an understatement and this track in particular has a special tie to yours truly. After the 2009 move to Labor Day weekend this became my sort of "birthday" track. Attention NASCAR: I would have preferred a road course, but a night race is alright, I won't even ask for a gift receipt.

Since my birthday is on the second, let's start with the Blue Deuce. I know, I know, I've been talking about Brad Keselowski for weeks now. Then again, how can you not mention a guy who has finished first, second, third, and first in the past month? Even though he has two starts in the Sprint Cup (one DNF and an average finish of 30.5) and four in the Nationwide Series (two top-10s, one of which was a top-5) he's still a contender to win this week. Keselowski has bolted up the standings so quickly that he is now only 21 points out of tenth place. He's already locked in to The Chase as a wild card so look for the team to potentially take some risks this week and just go for the win again. Don't bet against Kes right now and expect a top-5, if not top-3 performance.

If there is one guy right now that needed to see Atlanta Motor Speedway, it was Tony Stewart. From my browsing yesterday and this morning it seems like every blogger and expert is writing off Stewart's chances, saying that he's headed in the wrong direction and some even say he may miss The Chase. With two races left before the cutoff and his lead all but gone (as I said, 21 ahead of Kes but only 22 ahead of Clint Bowyer) it seems there is a good chance. But here is what you need to know: in 24 career starts, Stewart has an average finish of 11.6 at Atlanta. He has nine top-5s in that span and 12 top-10s and he absolutely has to have a strong finish on Saturday. Richmond looms next week and that is easily Bowyer's best track. I expect a top-10 finish, maybe even higher, and if he doesn't watch his mirror all race for the #2 and #33 he may pull a reversal and just win the whole thing.

Debris Caution: Irwin Tools Night Race

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


Ah, Bristol Motor Speedway. I remember growing up and playing NASCAR '98 and causing complete chaos on the track with its paintball mode. Still, no track out there is quite as distinct and this is a track that divides drivers. Out of the past nine races eight drivers have five or more top-10s (Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Matt Kenseth, Clint Bowyer, and Kasey Kahne). Think about that for a moment. Eighty percent of the top-10 finishers in the past five years have been there more than half the time. It's a track that, when mastered, becomes a chance of contenders to gain a lot of ground in the standings.

So who exactly are the favorites to win the Irwin Tools Night Race? Well, not to sound like a broken record but it's the Busch brothers. Kurt has won five times in 21 career races and brother Kyle has another five in just 13 career starts. Kyle won the spring race and coming off of a win last week he looks to be a prime candidate to win yet again. It's really hard to argue against him, too, because his average finish of 8.7 is second among active drivers. Kurt is no slouch either, though, at a 10.5 average finish and coming off of a week that saw him drop two more spots in the points standings (though he's safely in there, barring the most dramatic collapse imaginable) he will be pressing to one-up his brother and break that time with Kyle and Jeff Gordon as the winningest active driver at Bristol.

As I learned last week, though, it's not as much fun to pick safe bets. The Busch brothers will definitely be on my fantasy NASCAR team and I'll probably start Kyle when all is said and done (since both are A-List drivers on Yahoo!), but I'm going to throw a Hail Mary here. The one driver out there that needs a win more than anyone actually has a higher average finish than Kyle Busch. That driver is Dale Earnhardt Jr. and I am going to call for him to win this week. Shocked? Don't be, Earnhardt Jr. has 12 top-10s, seven of which were top-5s, and a win (granted it came in 2004) in his past 19 starts. Everyone points to Daytona as Dale's best track, and granted he has a lot of great moments there, he is actually better at Bristol (career finish of 15.0 in 24 Daytona races and 11.5 in 23 at BMS). Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart are the only drivers in The Chase without wins and I expect that if Junebug is going to win this year, it will be on Saturday.

I can't have a blog post about NASCAR nowadays without mentioning Brad Keselowski. If he was white hot last week then I don't know what to say about the guy this week. The past three weeks he has finished first, second, and third, so it's only logical that Kes will finish fourth this week at Bristol. In all seriousness, Kes won in the Nationwide Series at Bristol and while his 16.7 average finish at the Sprint Cup level leaves a lot to be desired, there's something to be said about having a teammate who knows his way around the track and there's that whole momentum thing. Anything besides a fourth place finish will be disappointing, so get on it, Keselowski.

Originally I had planned to go with Matt Kenseth as my darkhorse this week, but how can a guy who has won at Bristol twice, has an average finish of 9.6 at the track, and sits fifth in points be considered anything close to that of a darkhorse? Since I seem to be going boom-or-bust this week, I may as well go with someone that could change the entire landscape of the points standings. Clint Bowyer sits 11th in points at the moment and without a win he would need to pass Stewart (24 points behind) or Earnhardt Jr. (30 points behind) to secure his spot. I opened by saying that this is a track that can be a great spot to gain some ground in the standings and that's exactly what Bowyer needs to do. In the past five years he has bested Stewart at just about everything Bristol related (Bowyer's five top-10s and three top-5s beat Stewart's three and two respectively and his average finish of 14.9 bests Stewart's 17.7). The problem with Bowyer is the DNFs (two, which is the most of non start-and-parkers and puts him in the company of David Gilliland, Casey Mears, and Michael Waltrip) and Stewart has finished each of his nine most recent starts. If Bowyer wants to make The Chase, he has to beat Stewart this week (by quite a bit, actually).

Just so you know, the earthquake happened in the middle of writing this.

Debris Caution: Pure Michigan 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


You know how I said I love road courses? Yeah, Monday definitely did not disappoint. With that said, this week the NASCAR schedule pulls into Bryan's home state of Michigan for the Pure Michigan 400. It seems like every time you turn around NASCAR is at an oval but I digress. What you can expect this week is for the usual suspects but I am going to choose to start with someone who is on a roll right now.

Last week, Brad Keselowski was my opener and this week he will bat leadoff once again. Kes is white hot right now and it seems like the more beat up the guy is, the better he races. I'm not going to suggest throwing him in the ring with Georges St- Pierre, but maybe a jammed finger from a game of pickup basketball can do the trick. At any rate, Kes finished 25th when the Sprint Cup invaded Michigan earlier this year and his average finish of 27.5 in four races inspires little confidence. On the flip side, in the Nationwide Series he has two wins and three top-10s in five starts at MIS. Just like last week, expect Kes to buck the trend and post a top-10 this week at Michigan. If you hear about any sort of injury between now and Sunday, bump that up to a top-5.

There is absolutely no one better at Michigan than Carl Edwards. Edwards has 14 starts and 12 top-10s. Think about that for a moment. Nine of those were top-5s and two of those were wins. His average finish is 6.2 and he has finished every race. Both of his wins have come in the last five years and when looking only at that time period he is even more dominant (nine starts, eight top-10s, 6 top-5s, 2 wins, and an average finish of 4.9). After having sole possession of the points lead taken away by Kyle Busch last week, expect Edwards to come out at his best and make a statement by winning on Sunday.

Debris Caution: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


This week, the NASCAR schedule takes us to the land of turning right at Watkins Glen International. Road course racing has always been my favorite part of the NASCAR schedule and The Glen has provided some fantastic races over the year. Plus, it gives us a chance to see Boris Said's magnificent afro, and really, that's what NASCAR is all about.

Last week, Brad Keselowski held on for one of the most improbable victories I think anyone has ever seen. Just a few days after breaking his ankle and having it swell to the size of a grapefruit, then sitting through nearly two hours of rain, and then having to hold off Kyle Busch of all people, Kes managed to win his second race of the year and all but wrap up a spot in The Chase. So what can we expect as an encore from the Blue Deuce? Well, if the stats are to be believed, not much. Kes just has three races in the Sprint Cup series on road courses and his average finish is 21.7 (only one of those was at Watkins Glen, where he finished 20th). For what it's worth, he was great in the Nationwide Series (three races, three top 10s, a top 5, and an average finish of 6.3) at The Glen. I spoke about momentum being a funny thing back when I started this feature, and I think you can expect Kes to continue improving and find some success this week. Even with one bad ankle I still think he'll score his first top-10 on a road course in the Sprint Cup this Sunday.

Whenever the Sprint Cup goes to a road course you can expect to see plenty of Juan Pablo Montoya and Marcos Ambrose. Ambrose has never won a Sprint Cup race but he is one of the very best at Watkins Glen: seven races, six top-10s, five top-5s, and an average finish of 9.1 (even with the only other race being a DNF). He is the second highest in average finish (behind Tony Stewart) and generally gives himself excellent starting position (11.7). Ambrose is far too good to be winless at these road courses, and if he is going to break through it will be this weekend at The Glen. This year has been kind to first time winners (Trevor Bayne, David Ragan, Paul Menard, and Regan Smith) and I think Ambrose will join that list this weekend. Look for him to get his first week on Sunday.

Even though Montoya is far more volatile, he has been even more successful than Ambrose. In nine total races he has an average finish of 10.6, seven top-10s, and two wins. If you watch Montoya on these road courses you'll know the reason I said he is volatile, and for the uninitiated, let's just say he doesn't mind getting his bumper dirty. Montoya seems to piss off someone new every time NASCAR invades a road course and it seems oddly appropriate that he has a target on his hood. If Montoya doesn't use his car up on his bull-rushing charges to the front (which happen quite often since his pit crew doesn't do him many favors) he'll finish in the top five and challenge for the win. He'll also probably run through someone along the way.

I briefly mentioned Tony Stewart earlier, but no one has been quite as successful at WGI as Smoke. He has the highest average finish (8.6), seven wins (only two behind active leader Jeff Gordon, who has also ran 12 more races), eleven top-5s, 18 top-10s, and only a single DNF. When the NASCAR schedule mandates to turn right few, if any, are better than Stewart. Like Montoya, however, he has a tendency to get in trouble with other drivers. If not for Brian Vickers' torpedoing technique we very likely could have seen Smoke battling Kurt Busch to the end and perhaps even winning. Tony hasn't won this year and is clinging to a one point lead over Dale Earnhardt Jr. for ninth place. He needs a strong finish, or ideally a win, to lock up a slot in The Chase and he's very capable of winning this week.

I refuse to take the easy route on dark horses (sorry, Boris Said and Robby Gordon). I'm also not going to go with a guy like Kyle Busch (five top-10s in six starts), but someone more unexpected: AJ Allmendinger. Ambrose's teammate doesn't have quite as much glamour as his teammate (three starts, one top-5, one top-10, and an average finish of 9.3) but is strong on road courses (fifth highest average finish in the last 10 years). It can't be understated how vital it is to have a strong teammate who knows the ins and outs of these tracks and he works with one of the best in the business. I don't expect 'Dinger to challenge for the win unless it gets down to a fuel mileage race, but I do expect a strong showing in the top-10. Having both of the Richard Petty Motorsports cars finish near the front would be a huge boost for a team that is only going to continue getting better.

Debris Caution: Good Sam RV Insurance 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.

This week the NASCAR schedule heads into Pocono Raceway for the Good Sam RV Insurance 500. When the Sprint Cup series last invaded Pennsylvania it was all about Jeff Gordon and the Busch Bros. So there is no better place to start than that very same top three when looking at this weekend's event.

Jeff Gordon is coming off of a disappointing second place finish at the Brickyard 400. Though most drivers would happily take the points and move on, Gordon was consistently the fastest car on the track. At the end he made a surge to the front that just fell short. I don't really know why Gordon went through the slump he did the past two years but something seems to have clicked between him and new crew chief Alan Gustafson this year. Coming into Pocono, Gordon is one of the track's most dominant racers. In 37 career races at the track he has 26 top-10s, 17 top-5s, and five wins. Five of his other starts have ended with DNFs but his average finish is still third among active drivers (10.3). Look for him to be near the front all day once again and challenge for the win.

As for the Busch bros, Kurt has far more success and experience at the track than his younger brother Kyle. Kurt has started 21 races and finished in the top-10 11 times. He also has eight top-5s and two victories but his average finish is near the middle of the pack (16.1). Kurt grabbed his first pole at the track earlier this year when he was in the midst of winning three straight so don't expect him to start on the front row this week. I'm calling for a strong finish as Kurt will be looking to rebound after losing three spots in The Chase, but no victory. Rowdy Busch has been a bit of an enigma at Pocono. In 13 career starts he has four top -10s, three top-5s, and 2 DNFs. His average finish is 18.8 and he has never won at the track. Kyle is a threat to win no matter where the Sprint Cup series goes but Pocono is not one of his favorite locales. His older brother will probably get the best of him once again but look for Kyle to sneak his way into another top-10 finish.

The winningest active driver at Pocono in the past 10 years, by no real surprise, is Denny Hamlin. Even though this season seems like a bit of a lost cause following last year (where he almost dethroned Jimmie Johnson), Denny is still comfortably in the top 12 (currently 11th, 13 points ahead of Clint Bowyer and 27 up on 13th place Greg Biffle) and barring a collapse he will make the cutoff. However, one big thing has changed: after winning eight races last year, Hamlin only has one (at Michigan) in this year's campaign. Another win would go a long way towards improving his chances and there's no better place than Pocono (well, except Martinsville) for Denny to break through. Along with his four wins (only one behind Jeff Gordon and Bill Elliott, who lead active drivers since 1975), he has seven top-5s, eight top-10s, and an average finish of 9.2. He also has the best average start of all drivers (5.9) and has completed each of his 11 races. Denny had a disappointing finish of 19th in June's race but don't expect a repeat, he'll finish in the top-5.

My pick to win this race is currently the series' #2 man: Jimmie Johnson. He is second behind Hamlin in average finish (9.3, only a tenth behind in eight more career races). He is also sitting second in points, eleven behind Carl Edwards. If he won he would have, you guessed it, his second victory on the year. I know, Jimmie has that sixth championship on his mind but I'm sure he would love to win at Pocono. In 19 career starts he has 13 top-10s, seven top-5s, and two victories. The biggest thing to check for Jimmie, though, is the DNF department, and this week we find another good sign: zero DNFs. He finished fourth in June and look for him to come in first this weekend.

My dark horse this week is a bit of a reach. Though I was going to go with either Carl Edwards or Tony Stewart, you really can't say either of those guys would be a surprise. Both of them have won two races a piece at the track and both have a lot of momentum going into this race. So with that, I am choosing a guy who has also won at Pocono: Kasey Kahne. In 15 career starts Kahne also has five top-10s and three top-5s. He also has a sparkling average start position of 9.4, which is fifth among active drivers (behind Hamlin, Johnson, Mark Martin, and Ryan Newman). Kahne is a great driver, and perhaps the uncertainty of Red Bull Racing has affected him this year (currently he sits in 15th in the standings). Maybe he is also looking longingly at his future employer, Hendrick Motorsports and is raring to get his hands on the #5. I'm unsure what ails Kasey this year but expect him to finish well this weekend and challenge for the win.

Debris Caution: Brickyard 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.

The Brickyard 400 has been one of the biggest races on the NASCAR schedule since its inception in 1994. It has the second highest purse of any race (behind only the Daytona 500) and always pairs up on the weekend with Indianapolis Motor Speedway's more famous cousin, the appropriately named Indianapolis 500. There are two important factors for Indy, the first is momentum (really, this could be said for any track) and the second is past success. While someone like Jamie McMurray winning last year came as a bit of a surprise, when you dove deeper into the stats it made a lot of sense. McMurray had three top-10 finishes in seven races at IMS.

This year, McMurray hasn't had as much success. He only has two top-10 finishes this year, zero top-5s, and has failed to finish three times. It has been a lost season for J-Mac but he is still quite capable of finishing in the top-10 at Indy given his past success, just don't look for him in Victory Lane come Sunday. His teammate at Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing, Juan Pablo Montoya, is a trendy pick to win and is probably the safer bet of of the EGR stable. Montoya actually won the pole last year and in 2009 he led 116 of 160 and probably would have won if not for a speeding penalty late in the race. I am actually picking Montoya to finally break through and win this week, which would do wonders for his chances of making The Chase.

Another guy I have high hopes for this week would be Tony Stewart. It's kind of shocking that he hasn't won a race this year but he has two top-5s and seven top-10s. He looked to be the biggest threat to Kurt Busch at Infineon but Brian Vickers decided to plow right through him. Last week Smoke was the runner up to Ryan Newman and Indy has been very kind to him. Stewart holds the highest average finish of all drivers in the past ten years at 7.8 (Jeff Gordon is second with 8.3 but that only counts one of his four wins). With five top-5s in nine attempts and two wins (in 05 and 07) look for Tony to be near the front all day.

Speaking of him, Jeff Gordon is another driver who is quite capable of winning. He has won twice this year (more than his past three seasons combined) and no one knows their way around the track better than him. He won the inaugural Brickyard in '94 and went on to win in '98, '01, and '04. In seventeen races he has an average finish of 9.5 and an eye-popping 13 top-10s and nine top-5s (Stewart is ahead of him with an average finish of 8.2 but that is in only 12 starts). Gordon is also the only driver to win the pole more than once (he has three). Look for the #24 to pace the field once again this weekend.

While Gordon has four wins, the only guy with three wins at Indy is his teammate, Jimmie Johnson. Five-Time won the Brickyard in '06, '08, and '09 and seems like as good of a choice as any to take the checkered flag this weekend. Strangely enough, though, he also has 3 DNFs and an average finish of 18.3 in nine starts. While JJ has been the model of consistency during his five year reign, at the Brickyard he is the ultimate risk/reward choice. Hendrick Motorsports as a whole will run well at the Brickyard (Mark Martin has ten top-10s in 17 starts and Dale Earnhardt Jr. is racing for his Chase for the Sprint Cup life right now).

Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have the most wins this season at three a piece. Harvick has been fantastic at IMS, with seven top-10s, four top-5s, and a win in 10 starts. He also finished second last year thanks to some strong closing. Rowdy Busch has only six starts at Indy and four top-10s, including an eighth place finish last year. Kyle is a threat no matter where the Sprint Cup goes but expect only a solid performance. His brother, Kurt Busch, has actually struggled at Indy. He had a dominant stretch of three straight poles before winning at Infineon (his first win at a road course) and has been solid since, with finishes of 14th, 9th, and 10th. At Indy expect a finish a little above his average (18.1), just not his second top-5.

As far as dark horses go, I would say to keep your eye on Greg Biffle. Out of the Roush-Fenway cars he is only second behind Carl Edwards in average finish (11.6 to 13.9) but has finished in the top-10 four times in eight starts. Last year he was actually near the front and more consistent than the two drivers that finished ahead of him. Look for the American Red Cross Ford to surprise some people this weekend and jump back into the thick of The Chase.