Debris Caution: Hollywood Casino 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


Before getting into the race preview, I want to toss in my two cents on Clint Bowyer's decision. By now you've probably heard that Bowyer will be taking his talents to Michael Waltrip Racing next year. I've read a wide array of opinions on this move, some that say it's a fantastic move with an up and coming group and others that say it's just about the worst choice he could have made. It's unlikely that Bowyer will match his success at RCR with MWR but it wouldn't surprise me if he is the best car in the team. There will be some growing pains but I think that Clint is talented enough to be a fringy Chase contender in a few years.

Now onto this week's stop in Kansas, the Hollywood Casino 400. Kansas was repaved recently and we'll have to see how drivers respond. Right now there are some drivers that are in red alert mode and they will need strong finishes to just improve their odds. So let's just go ahead and look at the drivers who are more than 20 points out of the lead. Denny Hamlin sits 68 points out of first and has been treading water since the Chase started. It doesn't help that he has an average finish of 15.7 and only two top-5s (which account for both of his top-10s). He may not be the worst Chase finisher on Sunday but it's likely that he will find himself further back in the points race. Ryan Newman is 41 points out and this may be a track where he rebounds a bit. Newman has an average finish of 17.3 but he has won at this track. Newman's other stats are nothing to sneeze at (two other top-5s and four top-10s) but let's not kid ourselves: he's racing for pride at this point. Then there's Dale Earnhardt Jr., who is 34 points behind Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards. Dale Jr. hasn't had a lot of success at Kansas but he has been somewhat consistent. His average finish is a tick below Newman (17.5) and in eleven starts he has five top-10s. The two DNFs are worrisome (which tie him with Newman and Matt Kenseth for the most among Chase eligible drivers) but this may be a track where Jr. can get some confidence back. Don't forget that he came in second in June and was driving the wheels off of the #88 in an attempt to catch Brad Keselowski.

Continuing to work our way up we find my championship pick, Jeff Gordon. Gordon is trying his best to be a rubber band with the way he moves up and down these standings on a week-to-week basis. Right now he's only 19 points back but needs a good showing on Sunday to get back into the thick of things. It doesn't hurt that he's tops among active drivers in average finish (8.1). Gordon is an absolute model of consistency: in 11 starts he has nine top-10s, eight top-5s, and two wins. One of the other two starts he failed to finish but this is a track that absolutely couldn't have come at a better time for the #24 team. If Gordon is going to capture his fifth championship he absolutely needs a win at Kansas. So I'll stick to my guns and also pick him to win on Sunday.

Kyle Busch finds himself 15 points out but doesn't it almost seem like it should be more than that? Kyle has been awfully quiet in the Chase and this week's location won't help. He's last among active drivers in  average finish (eight races, 22.4) and he only has one top-10. Now remember, his brother Kurt struggled at Dover and went out and won last week, so we can never count out a Busch brother. I just have a hard time seeing Kyle winning this week or  going on much of a run in general for the championship. Matt Kenseth is one point ahead of Busch and he's had some success at Kansas. In eleven starts he has five top-10s and two top-5s to go with an average finish of 19.3. Brad Keselowski won at Kansas in June and that is the only finish he has of note in three starts. He's tied with Kenseth at 14 points out and I think he will finish ahead of Matt on Sunday to break the tie.

Now we get to the top five. Jimmie Johnson is looming and at 13 points out it seems inevitable that he's going to capture his sixth straight championship. Kansas has been a track that Jimmie has used to propel himself to multiple campaigns and he's among the best at the track. His average finish of 9.1 is third among active drivers and in ten starts he has eight top-10s. Out of those he only has three top-5s and one win but he has also started on the pole three times. It's likely that he will be near the front all day and I would expect nothing less than a top-5 this weekend.


Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch are tied for third and nine points behind Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards who are tied for first. Edwards has six top-10s in eight starts and has the highest active finish of the four (11.4). Stewart is next at 11.9 and he has also won at this track twice (Stewart is actually the guy I originally was going to go with to win but I ended up going with Gordon). Harvick has had less success (four top-10s in 11 starts, 14.3 average finish) but if there's anything we have learned it's that Harvick is better than his numbers show. He's consistent and always makes the runs and moves necessary to continuously make positive strides. Finally, we have Kurt Busch at another track that doesn't really agree with him (11 starts, three top-10s, 18.1 average finish). I learned my lesson about counting out the "Double Deuce" last week but I just don't see Kurt winning two in a row at tracks that he has traditionally struggled with. Then again, he did start on the pole in June and finish ninth, so perhaps the recent success will override the struggles.

As for non-contenders who will do well, that's easy. Greg Biffle has seven top-10s in 10 starts, and six of those have gone for top-5s. His average finish of 8.3 is second only behind Jeff Gordon and it would not surprise me at all if he pulled an upset to win a race for the other 31 guys who race on a week-to-week basis. The other thing to keep an eye on this weekend is Austin Dillon's debut. He will drive the #98 for Richard Childress Racing. This is one of the most anticipated debuts in recent memory and thankfully the decision was made that he didn't have to start right out racing the #3. It's an interesting storyline and something to keep an eye on (and, if nothing else, a great spot start opportunity for fantasy NASCAR players who are near the end of their C-List starts).