Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.
I guess I'm cursed. Heading into Sunday's race at Talladega it seemed that Kevin Harvick was going to be a virtual lock for a top-10 finish at least. If nothing else he had avoided the big wrecks and always came out unscathed. Well, we all know how that turned out and even though it was a Richard Childress Racing car in Victory Lane that did little to improve my mood. Harvick has sunk like a stone to fifth and though he's not out of it, he's currently in limbo at 26 points out of first. He's the last of the drivers that have a realistic chance but it's at the longest of shots.
With the Sprint Cup series heading to Martinsville this week it seems that we are going to see a Jack Roush championship for the first time since 2004. Kurt Busch won the very first Nextel Cup and the previous year it was Matt Kenseth who took home the final Winston Cup. Right now Carl Edwards is points leader and his closest competitor is Matt Kenseth who is 14 points out. Just about the only thing I've gotten right in this Chase has been that I thought Edwards would be the highest finishing Roush car but knowing my luck we'll see Kenseth make a run starting this week. Edwards hasn't found much success at Martinsville, with only four top-10s in 14 career starts, one of those going for a top-5, and an average finish of 16.9. However, if there's anything we have learned about Edwards it's that this year he is content to put in a strong finish even if he isn't competing for a win. His finishes in the Chase has been 4th, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 3rd, and 11th and he hasn't been a threat to really win any of those races. That's the mark of a champion-to-be but he has to continue the trend with the man who made consistency a bad word nipping on his heels.
Kenseth has been more up-and-down than Edwards in the Chase. His finishes so far are 21st, 6th, 5th, 4th, 1st, and 18th last week. Even with that run of four top-5s he barely made a dent in Edwards' lead. Right now he's in second mostly because the other drivers around him (Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart) have had some bad finishes. Kenseth has never won in 23 starts at Martinsville and he only has seven top-10s, two top-5s, and an average finish of 15.8. Even with the trends going against them at this track it's highly likely that we'll see both of them in the top-10. I don't think either of these two will challenge for the win but I don't think anyone will jump up and surpass either of them in the points. Then again, if Edwards has a DNF here it leaves the door wide open for anyone to jump up and make this thing exciting.
Brad Keselowski and Tony Stewart are only 18 and 19 points behind Carl Edwards respectively and represent the two best chances to have a non-Roush championship. Kes has only raced three times in the Sprint Cup at Martinsville and he has an average finish of 13.7 with one top-10. Stewart has two wins but none of those have come in the last five years and his recent finishes (16.3 average finish) are off the pace of his all-time success (13.9 average finish, 13 top-10s in 25 starts). Both of these drivers know if they want to gain even an inch of ground that they have to finish in the top-5 or win and I think that the both of them could gamble a bit. Stewart is more likely to take a risk but I don't doubt that if Brad is in a spot to win the race that he wouldn't stay out on a late pit stop sequence. Both of them should be near the front mixing it up with the #99 and #17 but I think one of the top four is going to face some adversity. I'm not quite sure who it will be but someone is going to fall off the pace methinks.
Harvick, as I said earlier, is 26 points out and the last driver who has a realistic chance to win this thing. He's won in the last five years and has an average finish of 16.5 for his career (it has gone up recently, with his last nine starts having an average finish of 14.4) and this is another case of a driver who has little to lose. Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Kurt Busch are three more drivers who are weekly threats to win and while they're all not mathematically eliminated, they have absolutely nothing to lose. I have a strong vibe that the winner will come out of this cluster of four. Johnson is the master at Martinsville and he has an average finish of 5.6 with six wins. The Busch brothers have one win between the two of them (Kurt) but none of these guys have anything to protect anymore. To a lesser extent Harvick is also in the same spot, and while Harvick can still get into the championship race by staying out of trouble, he needs to throw caution to the wind. As Johnson said this morning on the radio, why not go for the four trophies that are left and if they make a gamble to stay out front and finish in 15th, what's the loss? I think Johnson has a good chance to win this race but I'm certain that the winner will be one of these four drivers. If I am a major jinx, however, then I am 100% certain that Carl Edwards is going to sweep the next four.
The final four drivers are in the same boat but far less likely to do any real damage. Yes, Jeff Gordon could write a book about Martinsville (30 top-10s, 24 top-5s, seven wins in 37 career starts) but for whatever reason he's snake bit this year. It wasn't his fault that he had an awful finish at Talladega, Trevor Bayne dumped him on what was likely a call from Jack Roush himself. Gordon also has more poles than any other active driver (nine) so if you're a fantasy player be sure to at least pick him as a bench driver to get you some qualifying points. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is another strong fantasy option with his 12 top-10s in 23 starts but let's be honest: he probably isn't going to be a threat to win a race until next year's Daytona 500. I would be doing a disservice to Denny Hamlin if I didn't note that he's up there with Johnson and Gordon in success at Martinsville. If Hamlin was in the thick of things this would be a great equalizer (12 starts, ten top-10s, eight top-5s, four wins) and he also won here last year. I would actually say he has a strong chance to win this week but with the #11's luck this year he's more likely to have his third finish outside of the top-10. Keep an eye on him, though, because like Johnson he'll want another grandfather clock. Finally, there's Ryan Newman, who achieved what I thought was impossible and fell behind Hamlin in overall points. He has nine top-10s in 19 career starts but we can just go back to ignoring that he exists. The most you'll hear from the #39 will be if he has to help out Smoke by blocking or causing a caution or something.
As far as non-Chase drivers go, there really isn't anyone I think that has a good shot to pull an upset. Joey Logano will probably come in the top-15 or so based on Joe Gibbs Racing's success here. Juan Pablo Montoya could go for broke and while I'd put him in my top-5 most skilled drivers list, I won't put him in my expected top-5 here for this race. Clint Bowyer has six top-10s in 11 starts but only one top-5. Kasey Kahne wants to get a win for Red Bull Racing but I don't think he'll get one in Virginia. He has more DNFs (three) than top-10s (two).
So to recap, once again. If I am a terrible jinx that ruins Chase dreams, I'm picking Carl Edwards to win this thing (nothing against Carl, I just want the points race to tighten up). If not then I expect the drivers who just want a really cool grandfather clock to go for broke, led by Johnson and Kyle Busch.
Harvick, as I said earlier, is 26 points out and the last driver who has a realistic chance to win this thing. He's won in the last five years and has an average finish of 16.5 for his career (it has gone up recently, with his last nine starts having an average finish of 14.4) and this is another case of a driver who has little to lose. Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Kurt Busch are three more drivers who are weekly threats to win and while they're all not mathematically eliminated, they have absolutely nothing to lose. I have a strong vibe that the winner will come out of this cluster of four. Johnson is the master at Martinsville and he has an average finish of 5.6 with six wins. The Busch brothers have one win between the two of them (Kurt) but none of these guys have anything to protect anymore. To a lesser extent Harvick is also in the same spot, and while Harvick can still get into the championship race by staying out of trouble, he needs to throw caution to the wind. As Johnson said this morning on the radio, why not go for the four trophies that are left and if they make a gamble to stay out front and finish in 15th, what's the loss? I think Johnson has a good chance to win this race but I'm certain that the winner will be one of these four drivers. If I am a major jinx, however, then I am 100% certain that Carl Edwards is going to sweep the next four.
The final four drivers are in the same boat but far less likely to do any real damage. Yes, Jeff Gordon could write a book about Martinsville (30 top-10s, 24 top-5s, seven wins in 37 career starts) but for whatever reason he's snake bit this year. It wasn't his fault that he had an awful finish at Talladega, Trevor Bayne dumped him on what was likely a call from Jack Roush himself. Gordon also has more poles than any other active driver (nine) so if you're a fantasy player be sure to at least pick him as a bench driver to get you some qualifying points. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is another strong fantasy option with his 12 top-10s in 23 starts but let's be honest: he probably isn't going to be a threat to win a race until next year's Daytona 500. I would be doing a disservice to Denny Hamlin if I didn't note that he's up there with Johnson and Gordon in success at Martinsville. If Hamlin was in the thick of things this would be a great equalizer (12 starts, ten top-10s, eight top-5s, four wins) and he also won here last year. I would actually say he has a strong chance to win this week but with the #11's luck this year he's more likely to have his third finish outside of the top-10. Keep an eye on him, though, because like Johnson he'll want another grandfather clock. Finally, there's Ryan Newman, who achieved what I thought was impossible and fell behind Hamlin in overall points. He has nine top-10s in 19 career starts but we can just go back to ignoring that he exists. The most you'll hear from the #39 will be if he has to help out Smoke by blocking or causing a caution or something.
As far as non-Chase drivers go, there really isn't anyone I think that has a good shot to pull an upset. Joey Logano will probably come in the top-15 or so based on Joe Gibbs Racing's success here. Juan Pablo Montoya could go for broke and while I'd put him in my top-5 most skilled drivers list, I won't put him in my expected top-5 here for this race. Clint Bowyer has six top-10s in 11 starts but only one top-5. Kasey Kahne wants to get a win for Red Bull Racing but I don't think he'll get one in Virginia. He has more DNFs (three) than top-10s (two).
So to recap, once again. If I am a terrible jinx that ruins Chase dreams, I'm picking Carl Edwards to win this thing (nothing against Carl, I just want the points race to tighten up). If not then I expect the drivers who just want a really cool grandfather clock to go for broke, led by Johnson and Kyle Busch.
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