Admittedly, this is a weak market for catchers, and some GMs claim it's a weak market overall. I don't buy that it's weak overall, but certainly, I agree with the notion that finding a starting catcher this offseason will be tough for teams. There's really only one good starting catcher available (Ramon Hernandez), and the rest are platoon players or miscast as catchers (I'm looking at you Jorge Posada and Ryan Doumit). Regardless of what I just said though, there is still value to be found in this free agent catcher group, so let's dive in and take a look at the available catchers in the 2011-12 offseason.
Ryan Doumit (.303/.353/.477, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 1.8 WAR in 236 PA): Doumit is easily the most talented hitter of the group available in free agency this offseason, now that his 2012-2013 option has been declined (2 years, $15.5 million). You don't find switch-hitting catchers with little to no split that can OPS over .800 in free agency often, so he'll be a highly sought after name, and the Pirates will miss him greatly. The problem is, he's also the biggest defensive liability behind the plate of arguably any catcher in baseball. Doumit is terrible at framing pitches (in this Baseball Prospectus study, he's the poster child for what not to do when framing pitches, along with Jason Varitek) and only caught 11 of 90 steal attempts in 2010 (100 games played).
Players are encouraged to run on Doumit, probably more than against any catcher not named Jason Varitek, as he sees almost one steal attempt per game (the most attempted steals against a team this year was 153 against the Red Sox, almost 1 per game, to put that in perspective). Doumit's bat and versatility, however, are special, and make his defensive liabilities tolerable when he can OPS .830. Doumit has played outfield and first base for Pittsburgh as well, but operated more often than not as a catcher. Doumit would look very appealing to an AL team as a DH and backup catcher option, or a full-time catcher for a team looking to make a cheap addition. Due to Doumit's injury history, he probably won't get a long-term deal, but could net a deal in the neighborhood of 3 years with vesting options included. If an AL team signs him and allows him to DH and catch, he may be able to play a full season. I'd expect a 3 year deal for about $20 million, which is similar to the top contract in free agency for a catcher last year (John Buck's 3 year, $18 million deal from the Marlins).
Ramon Hernandez (.282/.341/.446, 12 HR, 36 RBI, 2.0 WAR in 328 PA): Hernandez is the crown jewel of this offseason's weak market for free agent catchers, although that's not to say he's a weak addition to any team. He doesn't have a huge platoon split, meaning he can be a starting catcher for nearly a full season. His .787 OPS ranked 8th in baseball of all catchers with 250 or more ABs, meaning he's definitely an above-average catcher, and was a borderline elite hitter as a catcher in 2011. He's still got solid power in his bat, and is a fairly patient hitter at the plate.
The drawbacks with Hernandez are three-fold:
Chris Snyder (.271/.376/.396, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 0.7 WAR in 119 PA): Declining Snyder's option was a no-brainer for the Pirates as he went on the 60-day DL to end his season in June due to requiring his 2nd back surgery in as many years. Now, Snyder hits the free agent market and could be an interesting bargain for someone this year. Obviously, no one will enter the season counting on Snyder to be their primary starter, but he becomes more interesting, as it looked like this was set to be the breakout season that many (including myself) expected from Snyder after his 2007 and 2008 seasons with the Diamondbacks. He hit for average for the first time in his career, and still showcased his ridiculous walk rate (13.8% is his lowest BB% over the past 4 years, which is outstanding). Even when Snyder hits .220, he's more than likely going to be a .350 OBP guy, making him pretty useful. According to the BP study I've referenced multiple times, Snyder's an above average catcher at framing pitches, and had already saved his team 7 runs with his work in 34 games in 2011 before his injury. Snyder's a gamble, there's no doubt, but he can be a serviceable backup at the least, with a ceiling of his 2011 production rates. More likely, his hitting will drop back to his career averages (.231/.333/.394), but that's a fantastic backup and passable starter if just taking his bat into consideration. He'll find work somewhere, and it may just be back in Pittsburgh.
Kelly Shoppach (.176/.268/.339, 11 HR, 22 RBI, 1.1 WAR in 253 PA): Shoppach's line looks dreadful, and that's because it is. But hidden beneath the .607 OPS, Shoppach was a fine platoon hitter and can serve that purpose well for another team. He hit .244/.344/.444 in his 125 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, and this trend stretches back for years. For some reason, the Rays didn't want to utilize him in the best way possible, and gave him more plate appearances against right-handed pitchers than lefties (.115/.192/.239 vs RHP), which they paid for according to DRaysBay:
Jose Molina (.281/.342/.415, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 1.3 WAR in 191 PA): This was very unexpected, as Molina's career line is .241/.286/.344. It's fairly easy to explain though. The small sample size, plus a .363 BABIP (his career mark is .293), means that Molina will fall back to earth a bit this year. Molina is a solid defensive catcher though. He does suffer in blocking wild pitches (which is unfortunate, as Toronto led the league in wild pitches), but is the best in baseball at getting strikes called on questionable pitches, and that's an invaluable skill. To put in perspective how much better Jose Molina is than every other catcher, Baseball Prospectus prepared a graph that helped compose a linear model for extra strikes called per pitch:
Molina is worlds ahead of everyone else, saving 35 runs every 120 games by getting more called strikes. It's unlikely that front offices will actually take this into consideration enough, because if they did, they would make Molina a full time catcher, as he'd be worth nearly 3.5 wins above replacement, just based on his catching ability. Molina should be able to net a better contract since he had an OPS over .750 this season (in limited at bats albeit), so look for him to get about $3-4 million per year if GMs take attention to him.
Jason Varitek (.221/.300/.423, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 0.5 WAR in 250 PA): Jason Varitek may have exhausted his time as a Red Sox catcher, so will anyone else be interested in his services? The Red Sox like Ryan Lavarnway to be a young, affordable catcher (he posted a .738 OPS in his 43 plate appearances in MLB, and started down the stretch for the Red Sox), and Jarrod Saltalamacchia will remain on the Red Sox, likely as the full-time catcher. He caught 103 games last year and posted a .738 OPS as well (what an odd coincidence). Varitek made $5 million last year, and surely won't command that again, wherever he looks to go. Varitek is additionally the worst catcher behind the plate, whether it's throwing out runners or framing pitches.
He can still post a decent OPS for a catcher, but he also only played in 68 games last year, which is about right for him.
Jorge Posada (.235/.315/.398, 14 HR, 44 RBI, -0.4 WAR in 388 PA): For a catcher, Posada's hitting is tolerable, but is his defense up to par behind the plate, and can his aging body hold up behind the plate? Posada apparently believes so, and thinks he can still contribute as a backstop:
Rod Barajas (.230/.287/.430, 16 HR, 47 RBI, 1.3 WAR in 337 PA): Barajas has stated that he wants to end his career in a Dodgers uniform, but GM Ned Colletti has made it known that's unlikely, as he said the Dodgers want to "get younger" at catcher in 2012, so Barajas will likely test the market. His statline reminds me of Miguel Olivo; A low .200s batting average, a sub-.300 OBP and a .400+ SLG with about 20 HRs. Barajas is probably a better defensive catcher, while Olivo has a far better arm when throwing out basestealers. I'll cut out the comparison now, but you understand the point I'm getting across; in the free agent market, Barajas and Olivo have very similar values. Barajas will be 36 to open the 2012 season, and likely will command a one year deal, as he has the last two seasons with the Mets in 2010 and Dodgers in '11. Olivo got a 2 year, $7 million deal with the Mariners after his career year in Colorado (a career year for a power hitter in Colorado? Unheard of.), and Barajas will probably HOPE for the same. Barajas signed a 1 year, $3.25 million deal in LA last year, and should command a similar salary again, as his 2011 season is almost a carbon copy of his 2010 season. He's a low-end starting option or mentor for an up-and-coming catcher in all likelihood. The Dodgers could consider him again, but AJ Ellis was impressive in his short MLB stint last year, so I'd expect Ellis to take over full-time catching.
Ivan Rodriguez (.218/.281/.323, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 0.4 WAR in 137 PA): Pudge is far past his prime, but he still actually presents a solid backup option for a team with a young catcher. He worked with Wilson Ramos and Jesus Flores the past couple years in Washington, and likely will get one more MLB opportunity this offseason on a short deal (I'm guessing 1 year, $2 million). Pudge actually threw out 52% of runners in his short time (13 of 25 basestealers), so his defensive prowess remains a constant. Unfortunately, he has no power whatsoever, and his discipline this year was uncharacteristically high, as his 7.0% walk rate was his highest since 2004 with the Tigers. He's a good "veteran presence" and "mentor" and all that other terminology for an old big-name player that will be in the Hall of Fame. He'll get a contract on name basis and because his defense and game calling are fantastic.
Matt Treanor (.214/.338/.291, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 0.7 WAR in 242 PA): Treanor isn't very impressive anymore, and is one of the worst catchers in baseball at framing pitches (he cost his team 17 runs according to Baseball Prospectus). It's highly unlikely he's very sought after, and he may just remain with the Rangers or retire. While Treanor posts a solid walk rate (14% in 2011), he doesn't do anything else well, and for that reason, teams would be wise to pass him over and opt for an in-house option.
Dioner Navarro (.193/.276/.324, 5 HR, 17 RBI, -0.1 WAR in 202 PA): Dioner Navarro is in the same boat as Treanor. He'll likely be a minor league contract invited to camp, but nothing more. His defense and arm are average now, and the upside he once had as a Ray never materialized.
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| Did I catch it? |
Players are encouraged to run on Doumit, probably more than against any catcher not named Jason Varitek, as he sees almost one steal attempt per game (the most attempted steals against a team this year was 153 against the Red Sox, almost 1 per game, to put that in perspective). Doumit's bat and versatility, however, are special, and make his defensive liabilities tolerable when he can OPS .830. Doumit has played outfield and first base for Pittsburgh as well, but operated more often than not as a catcher. Doumit would look very appealing to an AL team as a DH and backup catcher option, or a full-time catcher for a team looking to make a cheap addition. Due to Doumit's injury history, he probably won't get a long-term deal, but could net a deal in the neighborhood of 3 years with vesting options included. If an AL team signs him and allows him to DH and catch, he may be able to play a full season. I'd expect a 3 year deal for about $20 million, which is similar to the top contract in free agency for a catcher last year (John Buck's 3 year, $18 million deal from the Marlins).
Ramon Hernandez (.282/.341/.446, 12 HR, 36 RBI, 2.0 WAR in 328 PA): Hernandez is the crown jewel of this offseason's weak market for free agent catchers, although that's not to say he's a weak addition to any team. He doesn't have a huge platoon split, meaning he can be a starting catcher for nearly a full season. His .787 OPS ranked 8th in baseball of all catchers with 250 or more ABs, meaning he's definitely an above-average catcher, and was a borderline elite hitter as a catcher in 2011. He's still got solid power in his bat, and is a fairly patient hitter at the plate.
The drawbacks with Hernandez are three-fold:
- His age (36 in May), and tenure in MLB (1,389 games at catcher). This can wear on his knees, as evidenced by his knee surgery in 2009, knee soreness in 2010, and a shin injury he sustained in 2011.
- He qualifies as a Type-A free agent, meaning that if the Reds offer him arbitration and he opts for free agency, a team would have to surrender a first round pick (or a second rounder if their first round pick is in the top 15) to sign him. The Reds have young prospect Devin Mesoraco, who caught most of the games down the stretch, and Ryan Hanigan is an affordable, serviceable backup. GMs that need a catcher are desperately hoping that the Reds don't offer him arbitration. They likely won't, as it'd be silly to pay him $3 million for what is likely 40-50 games of service.
- His age and injury history prevent him from taking on the full load at the catcher position, as he only caught in 82 games last year and hasn't played in 100 games since 2008.
Hernandez is also a solid defensive catcher, only allowing five passed balls over the past 3 seasons and catching 37% of base stealers this past season, which was one of the highest ratios in the league. Should Hernandez become a free agent without an arbitration offer, he'll be the most highly sought after catcher. I'd expect him to get a 2 year deal with an option for a 3rd season because he'll be so highly sought after, but nothing longer due to his age and inability to play 120-130 games behind the plate.
Chris Snyder (.271/.376/.396, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 0.7 WAR in 119 PA): Declining Snyder's option was a no-brainer for the Pirates as he went on the 60-day DL to end his season in June due to requiring his 2nd back surgery in as many years. Now, Snyder hits the free agent market and could be an interesting bargain for someone this year. Obviously, no one will enter the season counting on Snyder to be their primary starter, but he becomes more interesting, as it looked like this was set to be the breakout season that many (including myself) expected from Snyder after his 2007 and 2008 seasons with the Diamondbacks. He hit for average for the first time in his career, and still showcased his ridiculous walk rate (13.8% is his lowest BB% over the past 4 years, which is outstanding). Even when Snyder hits .220, he's more than likely going to be a .350 OBP guy, making him pretty useful. According to the BP study I've referenced multiple times, Snyder's an above average catcher at framing pitches, and had already saved his team 7 runs with his work in 34 games in 2011 before his injury. Snyder's a gamble, there's no doubt, but he can be a serviceable backup at the least, with a ceiling of his 2011 production rates. More likely, his hitting will drop back to his career averages (.231/.333/.394), but that's a fantastic backup and passable starter if just taking his bat into consideration. He'll find work somewhere, and it may just be back in Pittsburgh.
Kelly Shoppach (.176/.268/.339, 11 HR, 22 RBI, 1.1 WAR in 253 PA): Shoppach's line looks dreadful, and that's because it is. But hidden beneath the .607 OPS, Shoppach was a fine platoon hitter and can serve that purpose well for another team. He hit .244/.344/.444 in his 125 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, and this trend stretches back for years. For some reason, the Rays didn't want to utilize him in the best way possible, and gave him more plate appearances against right-handed pitchers than lefties (.115/.192/.239 vs RHP), which they paid for according to DRaysBay:
Shoppach was an average fielding catcher and doesn't excel in blocking or framing pitches, but he does excel at throwing out runners. He threw out 18 of 44 attempted basestealers this year (40.9% CS), which was the top rate in MLB of all catchers who saw more than 25 attempted basestealers. Shoppach may fit in better with another team that will use him in a better manner, as there is no reason that a .431 OPS against RHP should ever see the lineup (unless you play for Mike Scioscia). If he goes to a team where he can platoon, he'd be a great lefty-hitting half of a platoon for a couple years.
The below-replacement level production we garnered from the catcher position was a putrid .194/.274/.333 that was good for a 72 wRC+ and 73 OPS+. Thanks to guys like Jeff Mathis, Drew Butera, and Carlos Corporan, the Rays actually were not last in the Majors when it came to offensive production from the catcher's slot but that is still no excuse for such a horrific stat line.
To make matters worse, the Rays catchers overall value was only +1.3 fWAR which was the sixth worst total in the Majors. The base running was horrible and the defense was only kept above water due to Kelly Shoppach's fine season behind the dish, not at the dish.
Jose Molina (.281/.342/.415, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 1.3 WAR in 191 PA): This was very unexpected, as Molina's career line is .241/.286/.344. It's fairly easy to explain though. The small sample size, plus a .363 BABIP (his career mark is .293), means that Molina will fall back to earth a bit this year. Molina is a solid defensive catcher though. He does suffer in blocking wild pitches (which is unfortunate, as Toronto led the league in wild pitches), but is the best in baseball at getting strikes called on questionable pitches, and that's an invaluable skill. To put in perspective how much better Jose Molina is than every other catcher, Baseball Prospectus prepared a graph that helped compose a linear model for extra strikes called per pitch:
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| Yet again, we see, Jose Molina: Very good. Ryan Doumit: Horrific. |
Jason Varitek (.221/.300/.423, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 0.5 WAR in 250 PA): Jason Varitek may have exhausted his time as a Red Sox catcher, so will anyone else be interested in his services? The Red Sox like Ryan Lavarnway to be a young, affordable catcher (he posted a .738 OPS in his 43 plate appearances in MLB, and started down the stretch for the Red Sox), and Jarrod Saltalamacchia will remain on the Red Sox, likely as the full-time catcher. He caught 103 games last year and posted a .738 OPS as well (what an odd coincidence). Varitek made $5 million last year, and surely won't command that again, wherever he looks to go. Varitek is additionally the worst catcher behind the plate, whether it's throwing out runners or framing pitches.
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| Jason Varitek struggles to catch a fastball. Not what you want from your CATCHER. |
He can still post a decent OPS for a catcher, but he also only played in 68 games last year, which is about right for him.
Jorge Posada (.235/.315/.398, 14 HR, 44 RBI, -0.4 WAR in 388 PA): For a catcher, Posada's hitting is tolerable, but is his defense up to par behind the plate, and can his aging body hold up behind the plate? Posada apparently believes so, and thinks he can still contribute as a backstop:
"I could catch," said Posada, who is in the final season of a four-year, $52.4 million contract. "I could have (caught) this year. I could have been a backup somewhere, backed somebody up. I don't think I could catch every day, but I could have caught here and there."Posada had a negative WAR mostly in part because he was primarily a DH, and not a catcher. Had he caught instead, he would have had a positive WAR score as his slash line translates far better to the catcher position. Posada was extremely inconsistent, only posting an OPS over .700 in two separate months of the season, which won't bode well for Posada contractually. On the positive side of Posada's season, he hit .269/.348/.466 against right-handed pitching. On the downside, he also had a massive home/road split (.878 OPS at home, .524 on the road). The reality of it is, Posada's lost a lot of his batspeed, but he still can contribute to a team somewhere as a platoon catcher/DH. His defense behind the plate will be horrible (A recent Baseball Prospectus study rated Posada as the second worst catcher in baseball at framing pitches and a Hardball Times study rated Posada as the second worst catcher in baseball at blocking pitches), but he'll at least provide the occasional off day for the incumbent starter at the position. He'll essentially have the role that Victor Martinez had for the Tigers this year in his ideal situation, catching about 40-50 games wherever he goes, and possibly being the DH at other times. He could probably produce a similar slash line in 2012 to his 2011 performance, if not improving on it (this depends largely on what team he goes to and how they'll utilize him). For a backup that brings as much experience in MLB as Posada does, that's a solid buy. I think it's likely that an AL East team (The Orioles or Jays) could go in on him, and that the Mariners could be in the mix as well for a cheap option here like Posada on a one-year deal.
Rod Barajas (.230/.287/.430, 16 HR, 47 RBI, 1.3 WAR in 337 PA): Barajas has stated that he wants to end his career in a Dodgers uniform, but GM Ned Colletti has made it known that's unlikely, as he said the Dodgers want to "get younger" at catcher in 2012, so Barajas will likely test the market. His statline reminds me of Miguel Olivo; A low .200s batting average, a sub-.300 OBP and a .400+ SLG with about 20 HRs. Barajas is probably a better defensive catcher, while Olivo has a far better arm when throwing out basestealers. I'll cut out the comparison now, but you understand the point I'm getting across; in the free agent market, Barajas and Olivo have very similar values. Barajas will be 36 to open the 2012 season, and likely will command a one year deal, as he has the last two seasons with the Mets in 2010 and Dodgers in '11. Olivo got a 2 year, $7 million deal with the Mariners after his career year in Colorado (a career year for a power hitter in Colorado? Unheard of.), and Barajas will probably HOPE for the same. Barajas signed a 1 year, $3.25 million deal in LA last year, and should command a similar salary again, as his 2011 season is almost a carbon copy of his 2010 season. He's a low-end starting option or mentor for an up-and-coming catcher in all likelihood. The Dodgers could consider him again, but AJ Ellis was impressive in his short MLB stint last year, so I'd expect Ellis to take over full-time catching.
Ivan Rodriguez (.218/.281/.323, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 0.4 WAR in 137 PA): Pudge is far past his prime, but he still actually presents a solid backup option for a team with a young catcher. He worked with Wilson Ramos and Jesus Flores the past couple years in Washington, and likely will get one more MLB opportunity this offseason on a short deal (I'm guessing 1 year, $2 million). Pudge actually threw out 52% of runners in his short time (13 of 25 basestealers), so his defensive prowess remains a constant. Unfortunately, he has no power whatsoever, and his discipline this year was uncharacteristically high, as his 7.0% walk rate was his highest since 2004 with the Tigers. He's a good "veteran presence" and "mentor" and all that other terminology for an old big-name player that will be in the Hall of Fame. He'll get a contract on name basis and because his defense and game calling are fantastic.
Matt Treanor (.214/.338/.291, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 0.7 WAR in 242 PA): Treanor isn't very impressive anymore, and is one of the worst catchers in baseball at framing pitches (he cost his team 17 runs according to Baseball Prospectus). It's highly unlikely he's very sought after, and he may just remain with the Rangers or retire. While Treanor posts a solid walk rate (14% in 2011), he doesn't do anything else well, and for that reason, teams would be wise to pass him over and opt for an in-house option.
Dioner Navarro (.193/.276/.324, 5 HR, 17 RBI, -0.1 WAR in 202 PA): Dioner Navarro is in the same boat as Treanor. He'll likely be a minor league contract invited to camp, but nothing more. His defense and arm are average now, and the upside he once had as a Ray never materialized.
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