2012 MLB Free Agency Top 50: 11-20

11. Hiroki Kuroda
2009-2011 averages: 28 games started, 11-12, 3.35 ERA, 172 IP, 1.177 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9

Kuroda was one of the biggest names at the trade deadline in 2011, but like Aramis Ramirez, he decided he didn't want to leave his comfort zone.  Kuroda could have swung a divisional race for a team in need of pitching, but instead remained with the Dodgers and finished off the best season of his career.  His 3.07 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and career-high 161 strikeouts helped him to a fantastic contract year.  The groundballer (48.6% groundball rate for his career) worked well in Chavez Ravine and his profile translates well to other parks as well.  There were a couple concerning developments with his season however, including his 3.78 FIP (the highest in his career) and the unexplainable decrease in slider usage (thrown 21% in 2011 vs 31% in 2010).  The change in his groundball rate coincides largely with his FIP, as his HR/9 skyrocketed this season to 1.07 HR/9, largely because he threw his sinker less and four-seam fastball more.  His fastball is a good swing-and-miss pitch (21% swing-and-miss percentage), but the four-seam fastball is the easiest pitch to take yard, so Kuroda still needs to find a balance.  He ditched his slider, which has historically been his second best pitch, and started throwing a curveball more, which was very effective.  Most of Kuroda's repertoire was within the 84-92 MPH range, so adding a curveball in the mid-70's was smart, to help keep hitters off balance.

Overall, Kuroda may not be one of the best groundballers in the league due to his new approach, but he still isn't a flyball pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, and has the potential to be a #2 pitcher in many rotations.  The question is, what team will commit multiple years to the 37-year-old?  The Tigers and Red Sox were willing to trade for the right-hander last year, and I think plenty of teams, AL and NL alike, would be interested in enlisting his services for the next 2-3 years.  However, Kuroda loves Los Angeles and has said he doesn't want to move unless it's back to Japan.  It seems like Dodgers or bust here, and the Dodgers would be foolish not to re-sign the remarkably consistent veteran for one final contract.

Prediction: Dodgers; 2 years, $26 million

12. Mark Buehrle
2009-2011 averages: 32 games started, 13-11, 3.91 ERA, 210 IP, 1.316 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9

Buehrle is one of the more consistent pitchers across baseball over his career, and while the way he does it isn't flashy, it's effective.  His 4.5 K/9 is extremely slow, but the fast pace he works with on the mound and his above-average groundball rate make him a productive and quite useful pitcher.  In 2011 he posted a 3.59 ERA, his lowest since 2005, and a near-normal FIP of 3.98 (3.90 FIP in 2010, 3.94 FIP in 2008), showing he consistently gets better results from his performance than the average pitcher with his peripherals (K/9, BB/9, HR/9) would.  While his ERA usually hovers in the mid-3's to low 4's, it can't be overlooked how many innings he pitches each year.  He's totaled over 200 innings in every full season of his career as a starter (11 consecutive from 2001-2011).  As such a soft tosser (average fastball speed of 85 MPH), it seems that he doesn't toil too hard on the mound.  This obviously isn't scientifically proven, but it seems that soft tossers like Jamie Moyer and Buehrle who use their changeup as an out pitch can pitch for decades, not just a few years.  While it would seem that his slow pitches would be easier to focus in on, Buehrle has impeccable control and works so quickly on the mound that hitters remain off balance.

Buehrle is one of the prime pieces of this free agent market, and probably the most dependable commodity in the market, which should take him far.  The White Sox would obviously like him back, but if it's to be believed they're trimming payroll, it's tough to see them re-signing him.  Many teams could be interested, including the Marlins, Nationals, Yankees, Red Sox and others.  I think the Marlins will be the biggest player for Buehrle along with Chicago, Buehrle has ties to Ozzie Guillen obviously in Florida and reportedly the manager is fighting for the front office to sign him.  The Marlins may not want to pay CJ Wilson, so Buehrle seems to be the safer, more affordable option and I believe they'll get him.

Prediction: Marlins; 3 years, $40 million

13. David Ortiz
2009-2011 averages: 147 games, 30 HR, 99 RBI, 82 R, .272/.366/.515, 130 OPS+

Ortiz has enjoyed a revival of his career over the past two seasons, as his .881 OPS from 2009-2011 is dragged down by the .238/.332/.462 slash line he posted in 2009.  Ortiz was phenomenal in 2011, hitting for a .953 ops and hitting over .300 for the first time since 2007 when he finished 4th in MVP voting.  Big Papi was very impressive with the bat, reducing his K% to 13.7%, the lowest rate of his career and almost a 10% decrease from 2010.  His walk rate isn't as high as it once was, but the walk rate hovering around 13% over the past two seasons is still quite impressive and shows that pitchers still fear the big DH.  Another interesting part of Big Papi's season is that he hit for less power, but was more effective overall than in the past couple years.  He hit 21% line drives (highest since 2005), and only hit 37.5% flyballs (the lowest figure of his career).  The BABIP on line drives is more than 3 times as high as any other form of batted balls.  The BABIP ranges from about .710 to .740 on line drives, depending on the season, so the higher the line drive rate, the more successful season a hitter will have.  He hit .716 on line drives, .339 on fly balls, and .208 on ground balls.  Ortiz's consistently high line drive rate means he still has the making of an elite middle-of-the-order hitter.  This year, Big Papi even figured out his struggles against lefties, as he hit .329 against lefties and .298 against righties.  Again, that seems to be a result of his line drive rate, as it was 23.6% against lefties this year.  Studies show that players who lead in line drive rate one year rarely do the next, so I'd expect a drop back to about a 18% line drive rate (league average), but he can still easily post a season very similar to his 09-11 averages.

Ortiz's market suffers because he HAS to be a DH.  Playing him at first base, even for a couple interleague games a year, is an adventure to say the least.  The major suitors for Big Papi will be the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and possibly the Angels and Orioles.  Because of his long history with the team, and because I think the Blue Jays will sign Prince Fielder (who will probably play plenty at DH), I expect Ortiz to return to the Red Sox on a 2 year deal with a vesting option for a 3rd year.

Prediction: Red Sox; 2 years, $24 million, 3rd year option for $12 million

14. Michael Cuddyer
2009-2011 averages: 150 games, 22 HR, 82 RBI, 85 R, .276/.341/.465, 117 OPS+

Cuddyer is one of the most versatile free agents available this offseason, and as a result has been one of the hottest names thus far in free agency rumors, with the Phillies, Twins, and Rockies already expressing interest in him.  His OPS would likely be higher if he didn't play in a pitcher's park like Target Field, but he still posted an .805 OPS last season.  Should he go to a more neutral or hitter-friendly park, he has 25 HR potential.  Over the past two years, Cuddyer has spent time at 1B, 2B, 3B and RF.  He reminds me a lot of a Ty Wigginton in his prime.  He'll start 130-140 games a year, but probably no more than 100 at any one position.  Cuddyer's versatility is a very valuable asset to a manager, as he can have no qualms sitting an infielder and playing Cuddyer at the position.  Cuddyer becomes a more valuable player and helps keep the other starters rested as well.  He's obviously more valuable at 2nd or 3rd base, despite the fact that his defense is probably below average at those positions.  Cuddyer is a dead-red fastball hitter as we can see by looking at his pitch values.  He was only an above-average hitter on fastballs (60% of the pitches he saw), and against splitters (he saw about 20 splitters all last year).

Cuddyer is in line for a 3 year deal as a utility infielder with a permanent starting role, and will likely move to the NL.  Small-ball AL managers like Ron Gardenhire of the Twins, Mike Scioscia of the Angels, and Jim Leyland of the Tigers will also be interested in Cuddyer.  Cuddyer's market will suffer because he's a type A free agent and likely to receive an arbitration offer from the Twins.  Any team that signs him as a result will have to surrender their first round pick or an early 2nd round pick, and a division rival like the Tigers surely wouldn't be pleased with the sandwich pick the Twins also will receive upon Cuddyer's signing elsewhere.  I think the Rockies and Phillies will dominate the market for him, with the Phillies ultimately winning out because they offer a better chance at making the World Series, something Cuddyer has come close to many times but never experienced.

Prediction: Phillies; 3 years, $30 million

15. Grady Sizemore
2009-2011 averages: 70 games, 9 HR, 36 RBI, 41 R, .234/.314/.413, 98 OPS+

Sizemore is probably the biggest risk of this free agency class, and as such, don't expect him to get more than a 2 year deal, but he's one of the most talented players available simultaneously.  Formerly thought of as the best center fielder in baseball, Sizemore's never been able to stay healthy, and his stock has plummeted from perennial All-Star to questionable starter.  Sizemore clearly doesn't have the health to remain in CF, and doesn't have the health to remain a threat on the basepaths (no stolen bases in 2 attempts over a 71 game sample last year).  Ever since getting hurt, Sizemore's never been able to consistently post the numbers he once did as a perennial 30 HR, 30 SB threat from 2005-2008.

I can't think that Sizemore is realistically expected by any front office to play more than 100 games, but if he's moved to left field and can DH as well, he has a shot to play over 100 games and be a solid contributor.  I think Chicago would be a solid spot for him to rehab his image on a one-year deal, similarly to the one-year deal Carlos Pena signed in 2011.

Prediction: Cubs; 1 year, $7 million

16. Ryan Madson
2009-2011 averages: 65 games, 2.78 ERA, 64 IP, 1.152 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9

Madson finally got his first extended chance to close for the Phillies last year and flourished in the role, posting a career-low 2.37 ERA and 2.25 FIP, along with converting 32 of 34 save opportunities.  Madson finally delivered on his promise, and was quite impressive.  His changeup at 14.7 runs above average was the best of any reliever in baseball this year.  The changeup is effective as it generates a lot of groundballs, and Madson threw it more than ever this year, posting a solid ground ball rate (48.3% ground balls).  Madson largely ditched his cutter in another wise move, as he more than halved the frequency at which he threw it (18.1% in 2010, 8.4% in 2011).  His cutter has always been his least effective pitch, so while it's useful as a pitch to keep batters off balance once in a while, it should be nothing more.  Madson is also a very controlled pitcher, as in 2010 he posted a 1.04 WHIP and this past year pitched to a 1.15 WHIP.  He doesn't complicate matters for himself, and that's the mark of a successful closer.

He'll have a large market, but I'm pretty sure the Phillies will realize they don't want to lose him.  They've talked with Jonathan Papelbon, but he's so expensive that Madson seems the better option, especially given his ability to generate more ground balls.

Prediction: Phillies; 4 years, $36 million
Actual (11/8/2011): Phillies; 4 years, $44 million with 5th year option for $13 million

17. Edwin Jackson
2009-2011 averages: 32 games started, 12-10, 3.96 ERA, 208 IP, 1.363 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9

Do you really know what you're getting from Edwin Jackson on a year-to-year basis?  The simple, cursory answer to that riddle would be no, but over the past 3 years, Jackson seems to have become a little more predictable.  He actually had a solid contract year, posting a 3.79 ERA over his time with the White Sox and Cardinals.  Jackson K/BB rate was the best of his career (2.39 K/BB), and his 3.55 FIP was easily the lowest of his career (his 2010 season was his second lowest).  The decline in FIP shows that he's improving a bit and his expectations should be higher than his 3.96 ERA over the past 3 years.  He also was one out from posting his 3rd straight 200-inning season.  Jackson's control was always his problem, as there was no question that his 95+ MPH fastball and solid slider were a great combination if he could harness them.  He's throwing strikes more often than ever before, and his swing-and-miss percentage has hovered around 10% the past 3 years, a great rate for a starting pitcher.

Jackson was an absolute stud in Chicago actually, and while his ERA remained similar in St. Louis, his pitching approach fell off.  Jackson totaled 5.1 WAR in his 30 starts with Chicago, and a 3.1 WAR in his 19 starts with Chicago in 2011.  Upon getting to St. Louis, the results remained largely the same, but the way he got there was far more concerning.  His fastball was 7.6 runs below the average fastball during his time in St. Louis, and given that he started 11 games, he surrendered almost an extra run per game by throwing his fastball too much and ditching his slider.  His slider was more effective in St. Louis on a per-game basis, but his fastball was so poor, that it's clear the change in approach didn't help.  Watching Jackson's tape from Chicago could teach his future team a lot about him.

The bright side for Jackson is that he had his best season to date while allowing a .330 BABIP and 25% Line Drive rate.  While that seems contradictory, those rates are far above his career averages, and should regress back to more normal rates in 2012.  The likely expectation for Edwin Jackson is that he posts a WAR between in the 3.6-3.8 range just like he has from 2009-2011, and that his ERA stays in the mid to high 3's.  He's a useful middle of the rotation starter, and one that I think the Cubs would love to grab at this price.  Jackson should end up being worth this contract over time,

Prediction: Cubs; 4 years, $40 million

18. Carlos Pena
2009-2011 averages: 144 games, 32 HR, 88 RBI, 76 R, .216/.346/.468, 120 OPS+

Carlos Pena revived his stock a little bit by taking a one-year deal in Chicago, and returned to an average above .200.  However, he made it painfully obvious this season that he's a pure platoon player now.  Pena posted a .225/.357/.462 slash line, the OBP being impressive as usual considering his low batting average, but against lefties, his performance was unacceptable.  In 146 plate appearances, Carlos posted a pathetic .133/.260/.333 line, making him AAA fodder against left-handed pitchers.  Against right-handers, Pena was an elite hitter, to the tune of .255/.388/.504, and hit 21 of his 28 home runs in 2011.  Pena can be a fantastic hitter in a platoon role, where he'll still play 100+ games, and is a good fielder to boot, so his market in the NL may be stronger.

Pena would be a perfect fit for the Milwaukee Brewers to fill in for Prince Fielder after his departure on a one-year deal.  If the Cubs want him, they have the inside track it seems, after his comments about being excited upon Theo Epstein's arrival in Chicago.  I don't see him getting the $10 million that he got last year, mostly because Pujols, Fielder, and Cuddyer are the highly sought after first basemen, which depresses his stock to a mid-tier free agent.

Prediction: Brewers; 1 year, $8 million

19. Heath Bell
2009-2011 averages: 66 games, 2.36 ERA, 67 IP, 1.157 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9

Bell was the most popular closer at the MLB Trade Deadline, but is he really worth the 3 year commitment he's looking for and $10 million per year?  Bell's K/9 plummeted from 11.06 in 2010 to a more average 7.32 K/9 in 2011, and his FIP rose from 2.05 in 2010 to 3.23 in 2011.  What was the reason for such a precipitous drop in 2011?  It appears to be Bell's pitch selection.  In 2011, Bell remained a fastball and curveball pitcher primarily, but he also threw a newly added sinker 15% of the time.  Sinkers are well known as pitches that are thrown to contact in order to induce groundballs, so Bell's sinker largely functioned with that purpose.  Bell generated less swing-and-misses with his fastball and also did the same with his curveball, so his struggles can't all be attributed to adding a sinker.  Regardless though, the fact that he's old, isn't as dominant of a strikeout closer, and is leaving the most spacious park in baseball (Petco Park) will surely concern prospective suitors for Bell's services.  Bell should still remain effective, but likely has seen his better days pass him by.

Bell has publicly stated he wants to remain in San Diego, and would accept a discount for them (he quoted 3 years, $27-30 million in July or August).  He's also expressed interest in playing for the Angels or Dodgers, so it's clear he wants to remain on the West Coast.  The only problem there is that Bell isn't going to command a $10 million salary elsewhere in all likelihood, so he's better off taking arbitration in hopes that the 2013 free agency class has less closers.  Not to mention, he's a type-A free agent, so teams will be very hesitant to offer him a contract since they'd have to surrender their first round pick to do so.

Prediction: Padres; Bell accepts arbitration offer.

20. Josh Willingham
2009-2011 averages: 128 games, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 64 R, .257/.360/.479, 125 OPS+

Josh Willingham has always seemed to be one of the most underappreciated players in MLB to me, as his high OBP and above-average SLG% could help many teams, but instead he was left to take a one-year deal in Oakland, where his stock plummeted.  He still had a fine season by posting an .810 OPS (.246/.332/.477), but the .246 average was the lowest of his career.  He struck out more than ever before 26% strikeouts), and walked less than he had since his first full season (9.9% walks).  Josh also swung at 21% of pitches outside the strike zone (more than ever before), and made contact on 75.7% of his swings, the lowest rate of his career.  It honestly just looks like Willingham either regressed, or that he became more of a swing-for-the-fences player.  I'm siding with the latter, because last year he also set his career highs in HRs (29) and RBIs (98).  He knew he had to carry the load for the anemic Oakland offense, and apparently tried a little too hard to do so.

He's going to go under the radar again, and would be a great mid-level option for a team in need of a 6th hitter.  He can DH, play first, and play corner outfield, so he's somewhat versatile at least.  Willingham would be a perfect fit for a contender in need of a corner outfielder, and the Indians seem to be a good fit.  They passed on trading for Willingham last year, but his availablility this year should intrigue them, as a Willingham-Brantley-Choo outfield would end their worries about the outfield for the foreseeable future.

Prediction: Indians; 3 years, $20 million