11/8/11

What I Know: NFL Halfway Point

I apologize for not having a Quick Hits or NASCAR post up last week. Due to an unforeseen snowstorm here in Pennsylvania I was without any Internet (and power in small bunches) for most of last week. This week, however, I'm back and better than ever. In lieu of my weekly post on the NFL I figured it was better to call attention to things here at the halfway point. There's a lot to talk about so I'll go ahead and dive in instead of sitting here and introducing stuff.

The Eagles are terrible. Bryan's favorite team dropped another game after they led in the fourth quarter and now they sit at 3-5 on the year. Before the season they were the Super Bowl favorite and after so many signings it seemed like they would finally bring the Lombardi Trophy to Philadelphia. Instead, what we have right now is an absolute mess. The feared secondary has leaks everywhere, with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie being unable to fit in as a nickel corner, Asante Samuel getting dinged up and burned for big plays, and Nnamdi Asomugha failing to live up to expectations. Nnamdi hasn't been bad by any stretch, but I know from living here near Philadelphia that the fan base has already turned on the guy and it's really kind of unfortunate. Michael Vick has leaped backwards and has turned back into the guy we saw in Atlanta instead of the fantasy juggernaut we all knew last year. Jeremy Maclin is the team's go-to receiver but he seems to always be the guy that doesn't match the catch, first down, or yardage necessary late in games. DeSean Jackson has become a decoy that runs really fast in a straight line down the field and if you can stop that you can completely neutralize him. I haven't even talked about the rushing defense which is dangerously close to New England Patriots' secondary levels of terrible. Just about the only thing that has gone right for the Eagles has been LeSean McCoy's emergence as arguably the league's best running back. They're in a whole lot of trouble and they're in danger of not even making the playoffs right now.

Speaking of the Patriots, they absolutely stink. Losing to the Giants is nothing to be ashamed of but it's the matter in which the loss occurred. I won't bother repeating what I'm sure you've read here or heard elsewhere, but the secondary is literally the single worst defensive unit I have ever seen. Devin McCourty isn't a shutdown corner (shocker) and Sergio Brown isn't a starting caliber player (another surprise). The Pats' problems were masked early on this year by the fact that Tom Brady could go out and score 30-40 points a game and throw for 400 yards. Unfortunately, as we learned from the Peyton Manning-led Colts teams, being unable to stop anyone or generate turnovers and relying solely on outscoring an opponent isn't a recipe for success. Tom Brady will probably finish with a career high in interceptions this year (he's up to 10 already, career high of 14) but it's not all his fault. Cris Carter said this morning that Deion Branch can just completely disappear at times and I tend to agree with him. Branch gets one-on-one match-ups and loses every single time. Wes Welker has picked up the slack of the entire receiving corps but right now the rest of them are just awful. Chad Ochocinco isn't working out and I don't know anyone who takes until Week 10 to learn a playbook and just looking at the rest of the depth chart boils my blood. Thankfully the team has Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, both of which are Pro Bowl caliber players at the position, but unfortunately Hernandez has been slowed down thanks to a knee injury. I don't even know what the Pats can do to fix things right now but I'm not looking forward to the Sunday Night matchup against the Jets.

I also know that the Packers are really, really, really good. Yes, the defense can give up quite a bit of yardage and the Chargers put up a ton of points on them, but they still get tons of turnovers. Relying on the other team to make mistakes is never a substitute for a good defense but the Packers are just fine right now. Please, Packers fans, do not complain about your team's defense at the moment. Please. I know it may be something that comes back to bite you down the road but trust me: no one wants to hear it. I would literally go up to New England, rent a bus, and drive the Patriots' entire defensive group to Green Bay for you if we could swap. 

Does anyone know what to make of the AFC West right now? Philip Rivers seemed to be the one guy immune to Norv Turner's suckitude but even he has succumbed to the venom. Rivers has a 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, which leads the entire NFL. The Chiefs started the year in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes with injuries to Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, then they went on a winning streak, and this weekend they were smoked by the Dolphins. The Raiders put all of their hopes and dreams on Carson Palmer but without Darren McFadden they're going nowhere. Then in Denver they have Tim Tebow at quarterback, a guy that they don't even really want but have to play because of Kyle Orton's poor play and the guy's popularity. I picked the Chargers at the beginning of the year and I still think they're the most talented team but Rivers has to get his act together. At this point I would love to see Tebow run wild and make the playoffs just to see how awkward John Fox and John Elway would be. It doesn't hurt that they're the most exciting team in the division by a long shot. 

The Indianapolis Colts and their fans should be embarrassed of the team's play to this point. Yes, barring something crazy like say, winning a game, you have Andrew Luck waiting at the other end of this season. Yes, Peyton Manning is crucial to the team's success but you can't tell me that a single player is the difference between 10-6 and 0-9 (so far). Right now the talk in the media is what the Colts will do with the first pick and honestly, I'm split about it. Yes, you have to draft Andrew Luck, but he is also ready to play right now. He's had all of the polish and there's no need to sit him on the bench for a few years behind Manning. However, by doing that you're also forced to trade or cut Peyton and the fan backlash from that would be a spectacle. There's also the chance that they pass on Luck and draft someone else, hoping to get another 3-4 years from Peyton, but that's the dumbest option I've seen so far. They could also trade the #1 overall for a package of picks and then draft someone like Matt Barkley or Landry Jones and I think this will be what we see them do. Whatever the Colts decide it's going to have detractors but at least their secondary is still better than New England's.

The Bengals are legit and it pains me to say it. I live with someone who wears a Bengals Snuggie (don't ask) and I have no idea how this team is doing it. The defense is stout and one of the best in the league, right up there with their divisional foes. A.J. Green has come in and been just as impressive as Cam Newton in Carolina and Andy Dalton is not the worst quarterback to ever exist. On top of it they traded Carson Palmer for a king's ransom to the Raiders so their future is even brighter than the present. I love watching the Bengals play because of how athletic their defense is and seeing Dalton fling it to Green and Jerome Simpson is a sight to behold. I was wrong, Cincy fans, please forgive me and I accept my new orange and black overlords. 

The Redskins aren't a good football team. I was fooled early on but even then I was still quite skeptical. Who knew that NFL teams would catch on to the fact that they blitz Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan every play? When those two guys are neutralized we have a team that can't really do anything else. John Beck is all sorts of awful (Rex Grossman is worse), their WR corps is ravished, and their running back is from Hawaii. I would say it's time to blow it up but there's isn't a whole lot to really blow up.

I wish that I followed my gut earlier this season. You can ask Bryan, before the season began I said that this is the type of the year that the New York Giants would win the the NFC East. No one was talking about them with the Dream Team nonsense in Philly and because Dallas was finally healthy. Granted I said it in jest, but the Giants are a scary team to face. Before the year began they were the team of malcontents with Osi Umenyiora and Brandon Jacobs but now you won't hear a peep from either of those guys. Eli Manning has transferred his interceptions to Philip Rivers and they may have the best group of receivers in the league even when Mario Manningham's comedic hijinks. Jake Ballard has replaced and maybe even improved the TE position and once they get Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw healthy they may be able to avoid a second half collapse. Maybe not, we'll see.

I sat down and I watched Chris Johnson this week. Being his fantasy owner since he first broke into the league I have been a huge CJ2K guy and always supported him. Even here on this blog I kept saying "he'll get it going" and threw out words of encouragement. After seeing him, though, it's obvious what his problem is. It isn't blocking, it isn't the lack of offensive weapons to take the pressure off of him, and it isn't the fact that he's gotten paid. CJ just doesn't have that top end speed we all grew accustomed to seeing from him. He can still get outside and make guys miss at times but that breakaway speed right now and who knows if he will get it back. He still has great hands and is a weapon out of the backfield but he isn't a threat to break an 80-yard touchdown at any point anymore. There's whispers that the Titans may cut him in March to save some cash but I doubt we'll see that, even if CJ stays on this pace.

San Francisco and Houston are the two teams I am most interested in seeing in the playoffs. The reason is simple: both have excellent running games and top notch defenses. Wade Phillips has made a world's worth of difference for the Texans and Jim Harbaugh has completely turned around San Fran. Frank Gore is looking as good as ever and the 49ers will have to do something this year because this may be the last elite year they get out of the 28-year old back with a lot of wear and tear. The Texans have a two-headed monster with Arian Foster and Ben Tate and teams can't stack the box for fear of Andre Johnson on the outside. Buffalo is another team in this mold with Fred Jackson and an above average defense, but I just don't know if they have the juice to do any damage this year. The defense just isn't good enough to win them a game right now but they absolutely have to take advantage of Jackson's year. We all know how volatile RBs can be, I mean look at Peyton Hillis and Cleveland right now. 

What I Don't Know

What was I smoking when I picked the Bucs to go to the Super Bowl before the year? I mean, I believed that Josh Freeman would take a leap forward but then I listened to Trey Wingo on ESPN and it further convinced me until I went crazy. I'm not going to blame Trey, though, I was looking for someone to give me a push. I was a strong believer in LeGarrette Blount and I still think he's a great back but he is stifled in Tampa. Yes, he may not be the greatest pass catcher but without Earnest Graham you have to keep him on the field on third downs. He made two catches on Sunday but if the Bucs continue to take him out for Kregg flippin' Lumpkin there's no way that teams will take them seriously. The defense hasn't gelled and Ronde Barber seems to get beat on a weekly basis. Nothing is going to save them at this point because they won't catch the Saints and the Falcons are clicking on all cylinders right now with a healthy Julio Jones. They may even get passed by Cam Newton and the Panthers before the end of the season and I'm a dummy for picking them to do anything.

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