Debris Caution: Ford 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


The NASCAR season has come down to a single race, two drivers, and three points. Only Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards can win the Sprint Cup and the only way that either one can clinch is with a victory in the Ford 400. Even though Edwards has a three point lead, he could lead the most laps, finish second, and end up in a tie with Stewart (who would get 47 points versus Carl's 44). Stewart would then win the tiebreaker because he has more victories. It's simple for both drivers and each controls their own destiny at this point regardless of what the other does.

I previewed this last week but if there is one track that Edwards wanted to see, it's Homestead. Edwards is the best on the circuit at this track and his average finish over his career is 5.7. In seven races he has six top-10 finishes, four of those have gone for top-5s, and two have been wins. When you cut that to the past five years he actually improves to an average finish of 3.5 and both of his wins have come in that span. He's heads and shoulders above everyone else and by all intents and purposes it means that Stewart's only real shot is to win.

Tony's stats are nothing to sneeze at. He has 12 career starts and an average finish of 12.4. Half of his starts have ended in the top-10 with three going for top-5s and and two of those being victories. Unfortunately for Tony none of those have come in the past five years and when you look at the time frame his stats slip. Stewart's average finish drops to 17.2 and that's with two top-10s in four starts. Just from looking at the two drivers it seems like Edwards is the heavy favorite but remember that Tony has all of the momentum in the Chase. He's won four races since September 19th and Edwards' only win came in March as Las Vegas (oddly enough, Stewart came in second at that race). As you know, though, Edwards won this very race last year and many viewed it as a springboard towards championship contention this year.

So with all of that being said who will hoist the championship on Sunday? Well it's hard to argue against either of these guys at the moment. If I consider myself a jinx then I would probably go with Edwards (sorry Carl) because I'm a bit biased towards Tony Stewart. If I had to go with the guy I expect to win this race, though, I would actually have to go with Stewart. Carl is a lock for a top-5 finish while Tony is a bit of a wild card, but it just doesn't seem like Edwards can win a race this year. It's strange, before the Chase it was the #14 who had no momentum or ability to win a race and all of a sudden he sits on the cusp of pulling what would be a major upset. It would be fitting if Tony could bookend Jimmie Johnson's championship reign and I can honestly say that I'll be rooting for him. Hopefully he and Carl can fight for the win and finish 1/2 to cap off what has been one of the most exciting seasons in NASCAR history.

What's that? I danced around an answer to who I thought would win the championship? Well obviously I think Carl Edwards will.