2009-2011 averages: 155 games played, 42 HR, 117 RBI, 115 R, .313/.409/.598, 171 OPS+
I think we all know who this guy is by now. The predominant player of his generation, Albert Pujols is already a Hall of Famer, and still probably has 7-8 productive years left in him as a big leaguer (if not more). The facet of Pujols' game I've always been the most impressed with is his uncanny consistency from season to season. Had Albert gotten one more hit this season, he would have hit .300 for the 11th straight season. He has 30 HRs in every season, and fell 3 RBI short of an 11th straight 100 RBI season as well. So essentially, Albert Pujols is a lock for a .300+ average, 35 to 40 HRs and 100 RBI every season, which is remarkable. That's the reason he'll get paid.
Taking a deeper look at Pujols, it's really tough to find flaws, and one could say that we saw the beginning of the end of Pujols this year back in April. He hit .245/.305/.453 in the month and panic set in on every media network, while his .758 OPS in April and .752 OPS in May were unimpressive. The final four months of the year, he posted an OPS over .950 each month and hit 28 total HRs. This is Pujols' worst season ever, and he still posted a .906 OPS and 5.1 WAR season. There are concerning changes though, especially his walk rate plummeting from 14% to 9.4%, the lowest of his career. However, it's highly unlikely that this was anything but an aberration. Looking at Pujols' peripherals, his BABIP was very low, and the reason for such an occurrence seems fairly simple. Pujols hit far more ground balls than ever before (44% of batted balls were ground balls), and swung at pitches outside the zone more frequently than in any season (31.5%). Pujols seemed to be forcing his swing a bit, and his outside swings have actually increased more and more over the past four seasons. Coinciding with his increased swinging, Pujols' walk rate dropped each of the past two years, so I don't expect his walk rate to return to the astronomical 16.4% it was in 2009. His stats have definitely declined almost across the board the past three years, so that's something to watch, and the biggest concern with Pujols. As a 32-year-old player entering next season, does a team really want to commit to Pujols through his age-40 season? Unfortunately, that's the price the winning team will have to pay.
Pujols can be counted on for 150+ games, a .300/.400/.550 slash line, 30+ HRs and 100 RBI in the heart of a decent lineup for years to come, and that's invaluable. I wish GMs luck trying to put a price on it. He will get at least 7 years, if not a longer deal, and I fully expect one team to offer him $28 million a year, which would make him the top paid player in the history of MLB. Theo Epstein has stated publicly he won't go after Pujols or Fielder, but I don't buy it. More than half of the teams in baseball could show interest in Pujols, so his market is obviously the one to watch. I expect Pujols to get upwards of $200 million total easily, but I don't think he'll push the 10 year, $300 million deal that I expected prior to the year. Whatever team signs him will end up regretting it in about 4-5 years, just like the Yankees did with their extension on A-Rod's contract.
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals; 9 years, $225 million
2. Prince Fielder:
2009-2011 averages: 162 games played, 39 HR, 115 RBI, 97 R, .287/.409/.547, 155 OPS+
Prince is the second high-profile hitter available this offseason, and a fantastic middle of the order hitter to add to any lineup. Fielder posted the second best season of his career by pretty much any metric. His .299/.415/.566 line was only topped by his 2009 season. He had a 5.5 WAR season this year, and played almost every game again. Baseball analysts and executives alike have expressed concern about how Prince's 5'11" and 275 pound frame will hold up over the next 7 years, but Fielder has never missed more than 6 games in his career which sets those doubts aside. Separating the aspects that make up Wins Above Replacement (Batting, Fielding, Positional, Replacement, Base Running), Fielder was actually 5th in MLB in batting, making him the fifth most valuable hitter. That's pretty impressive especially considering that his WAR would be higher except that he plays at a traditional power hitting position (1st base is the easiest position to play, so WAR docks players accordingly).
For a guy named Fielder though, he sure doesn't acknowledge that part of the game. He was the fifth worst fielding first basemen in baseball (granted, the four worse fielders were far lower in grading). For this reason, it's likely he'll attract a heavy market in the AL, where teams can play him both at first base and slot him occasionally (or mainly) at DH.
Overall, I think Fielder is the second best free agent available, but the most interesting facet of this free agent group is the fact that its two premier players are at the same position. It'll be interesting to watch if he or Pujols sets the market for first basemen. I have a feeling Fielder will sign after Pujols, and likely for a deal approaching (if not surpassing) Mark Texieira's 8 year, $180 million deal ($22.5 million per year). If anyone in this offseason gets a deal longer than 7 years, it really should be Prince, as he's only 27. Most players hit their prime in their early 30s, so Prince would hypothetically only be beginning his decline towards the end of his deal.
Prediction: Blue Jays; 8 years, $185 million
3. Jose Reyes
2010-2011 averages: 130 games played, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 92 R, 34 SB, .309/.352/.460, 122 OPS+
Jose Reyes and C.C. Sabathia's free agent futures have been the central storylines of the New York baseball media this season. Well, C.C. signed an extension that'll guarantee him an extra $30 million, and C.C. only had to add one year to his deal ($25 million salary in 2016, and $5 million buyout in 2017 or $25 million salary in 2017). Reyes looks like he'll be the only one darting from the New York market, and his possibilities are limitless. Given that he's not a middle of the order hitter, he won't approach the Pujols and Fielder contracts. However, he is at an important defensive position, and offers a different type of threat to prospective buyers. His blazing speed gives pitching batteries fits trying to hold him down, and he's a feisty hitter at the plate, hitting .300 annually, as well as usually doing it at leadoff, putting his offense in a good position. Reyes' case for a big contract in 2011 actually seems to be about on par with Carl Crawford's argument in 2010. Reyes obviously has the injury history following him around, but he strikes out less than Carl Crawford and is a switch-hitter without a major split. He also plays a far more important defensive position (his fielding is average, but an average shortstop is still worth far more than a great left fielder) and doesn't complain about where he hits in the lineup. Crawford's public demand that he not be slotted at leadoff and that he hit third was ridiculous, and because of it, Crawford was the $142 million #7 hitter most of this year. Reyes at least will hit where he's set in the line-up and for that reason seems to be a better team player.
Reyes is the main reason I included the averages over multiple seasons. His 2011 season was above what can be reasonably expected from him (he hit .337/.384/.493 vs. his .292/.341/.441 career line, sound like Carl Crawford much?) and he's injury prone as demonstrated by his 130 game per season averagea. He's good for two DL stints a year in all likelihood (only one if he's lucky), and I had to omit 2009 from the average as he only played 36 games that year.
Reyes is set to be this free agent class' Carl Crawford. He won't get Crawford money, but he's going to get very, very close. I fully expect him to top $100 million and to push a Vernon Wells-caliber deal (7 years, $126 million). Unfortunately, in about four years, I'd expect Reyes' deal to look like just as much of an albatross as Wells' does. While Reyes is only 29 entering the 2012 season, he quite obviously had his career year, and while some speedsters maintain their swiftness on the basepaths through their careers, they lose power, and if Reyes loses the minimal power he has, he will be Juan Pierre at shortstop. Realistically, this is a .290/.350/.450 player at best, and I'm just not sure that an .800 OPS with speed at shortstop is worth $18-20 million a year through 2018 when plenty of guys in MLB could produce a somewhat similar OPS and make a third of what Reyes will make. Buyers beware.
Prediction: The Marlins make a major play at Reyes, but refuse to go high enough to meet Reyes' lofty demands. Brewers; 6 years, $110 million
4. C.J. Wilson, SP
2010-2011 averages: 16-8, 3.14 ERA, 214 IP, 1.215 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9
C.J. Wilson may have divebombed in the playoffs, but he's still the best free agent pitcher available this year and will contend for a $100 million contract. I'm pretty sure he's priced himself out of that market though, and is more of a $80 million-ish pitcher on the open market now. I've always thought he'd get an A.J. Burnett type deal, and that's about what I'll project for him. The Rangers ace has only been a starter for two years, and the experiment has worked beautifully. He's been a solid starting pitcher, and realistically by the numbers, has been the equivalent of an up-and-coming ace. Wilson's topped 200 innings in both seasons, and kept the ball in the park in Arlington (49.3% ground balls, .5 HR/9). If you can pitch in Arlington, you can pitch anywhere.
An interesting point about Wilson's success was that he had the third lowest BABIP on groundballs, and that Wilson has induced more double plays than all but three MLB pitchers over the past two years. His performance will fall off at least slightly almost wherever he goes, as Kinsler, Andrus, Beltre is quite possibly the best defensive left side of an infield in baseball, but he's still a quality pitcher, and the best bet of any in this class. I see a middling team signing him to lead their rotation in a hopeful effort to make a playoff push.'
Prediction: The Nationals, Marlins, and Phillies all go in on him, but the Nationals come away with him on a 5 year, $85 million deal.
5. Yu Darvish, SP
I will be completely honest, I'm not very familiar with Yu Darvish's arsenal or scouting report, so for that, I'll turn to another source:
Darvish is only 25, so this is the best time to sign the young Japanese starter. As we know from the Daisuke Matsuzaka posting, first, an MLB team must make a silent bid for the RIGHTS to negotiate with Darvish. That will likely take $50+ million alone. After that, whatever team wins will have a 30-day negotiating period with him to agree on contract terms. If Darvish isn't satisfied with the contract, he will return to Nippon, and the Ham Fighters will receive $50 million just for offering Darvish up, so MLB teams place a premium on signing the player should they win his rights. Darvish has the highest upside of any pitcher in this class since he's so young, but also could bust out as many Japanese pitchers have. This is the ultimate risk/reward signing of this group, especially since teams have to pay $50 million up front to talk to him. This just screams Yankees, and I'm picking them to sign him.
Prediction: Yankees; $55 million posting fee, 6 years, $55 million
6. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
2009-2011 averages: 118 games played, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 62 R, .286/.344/.491, 120 OPS+
Ramirez was bandied about at the trade deadline, but he ultimately turned down the trades with his no trade clause, saying he wanted to remain in Chicago. However, now he's in free agency, and money talks far more when there's $40 million on the table elsewhere from a winning team. Ramirez is one of the better hitting 3rd basemen in baseball, as his .871 OPS was only behind Beltre's .896 OPS at 3rd base. This past year was Aramis' best since 2008, mainly because he stayed healthy for 149 games. Aramis is another one of those guys that you can count on hitting the DL once every year. Regardless, he's a valuable bat in any lineup. The biggest drawback of Aramis is that he is one of the worst fielding 3rd basemen in baseball. Fangraphs ranked him second worst of qualifying 3rd basemen (only Mark Reynolds was worse, and he was horrible). Any team signing him is doing so purely for the bat. Aramis surely wants at least a 3 year deal in FA, and possibly more. I don't see any team committing to more than 3 years for him, but he'll get a hefty payday.
Aramis may be a butcher in the field at third base, but his bat is one of the best at the position, and many teams could use him for that simple fact. He's a top ten third baseman probably right now, so contenders who need another bat in the lineup at 3B need to go for it with Aramis. There's one perfect situation for him, where he could play next to Jhonny Peralta, and finally put Brandon Inge back in Toledo where he belongs permanently.
Prediction: Tigers; 3 years, $39 million.
7. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2009-2011 averages: 128 games played, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 78 R, 26 SB, .255/.316/.403, 91 OPS+
Rollins is the second best shortstop available this offseason, and given that shortstop is a premium position, I fully expect him to draw more of a market than he should. Rollins is still an above average shortstop, but how far above average, and is he going to maintain the production over the four or five-year deal he is demanding? Looking at his stats really puts what he is in perspective.
Let's compare his 2006-2008 average to his 2009-2011:
2006-2008 averages: 152 games played, 22 HR, 79 RBI, 114 R, 41 SB, .284/.342/.485, 108 OPS+
2009-2011 averages: 128 games played, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 78 R, 26 SB, .255/.316/.403, 91 OPS+
It's a startling difference. 108 points of OPS difference changed him from an above average hitter at every position to an above average hitter (somewhat) only at shortstop. Rollins really isn't the same player he used to be. Part of that can be credited to the fact the Phillies' whole offense has declined over the past couple years, but before this year, they were an elite offense, that Rollins led off for. Additionally he seems to be a bigger injury risk now than he once was. Yet again, looking at the three year statistics shows that Rollins isn't quite the find in free agency that many thought he was. He's a good shortstop but nothing great, and certainly not worth the money he's going to see. On the bright side, he walks more than he once did. On the downside, his BABIP has been below .280 the past three years, and that's not a blip, that's a trend. His line drive rate is down on average, and his flyball rate is up, while he's not homering as much as in his prime. Rollins is still a useful shortstop, but don't get it twisted, he's nothing extremely special. Similarly to Pujols, it's tough to see Rollins, the face of the Phillies' resurgence, leaving the organization to go elsewhere. In a Jeter-esque move, will the Phillies overpay their shortstop because of his impact on the organization over time, and keep him in the fold due to lack of better options? I say no, because the Phillies have a young SS waiting in the wings for 2013, and don't want to pay him for the sake of paying him.
Prediction: Giants; 4 years, $50 million
8. Carlos Beltran, OF
2009-2011 averages: 96 games played, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 50 R, 6 SB, .298/.384/.497, 141 OPS+
Beltran managed to put together a full season this year, avoiding most injuries, and as a result posted a .910 OPS and 22 HRs. His performance didn't suffer in the Giants' poor lineup either, so Beltran looks to still be an elite hitter. The problem with him always has been and always will be his injury history. In 2009, he played 81 games and in 2010 played 64. He's a walking injury, moreso than almost any player in baseball. When he's on the field though, he's dynamic. He's a patient hitter as well, drawing walks in 12% of his at bats in 2011. Beltran's BABIP was a bit higher than normal (.324 vs. .303 career) and he also hit groundballs at an unusually low frequency (only 39% of batted balls) in combination with 21% line drives, but those statistics are close to his averages. Beltran can be counted on for an .875 OPS year-in and year-out still, but the counting stats are very unreliable. As far as his fielding goes, he's still an alright right fielder when healthy, but whatever team signs him will likely want to put him at DH often. Beltran expressed displeasure for DH'ing in July during trade talks, but the Red Sox can offer him a half-right field and half-DH job to prolong his health and appease his requests. It makes too much sense to me to not happen.
Prediction: Red Sox; 3 years, $39 million
9. Jonathan Papelbon, RP
2009-2011 averages: 65 games, 2.89 ERA, 66 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 10.8 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
There is a glut of closers available this offseason, and despite the cries of "Papelblown" I hear coming from Boston right now, Papelbon is easily the best available reliever. In 2011 he had the best year of his career. He posted a 1.53 FIP along with 12.17 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and a 0.42 HR/9. He seemed nearly unhittable this year, and posted a 3.0 WAR season, which is almost unthinkable for a reliever, especially considering that he only pitched in 63 games. Papelbon's pitch arsenal is pretty well-advertised by now, he's got a fastball that can touch high 90's or 100, and a slider and splitter that he throws about 25% combined just to keep batters honest. His breaking pitches were more effective this year than ever before, as his splitter was a full 2.3 runs above average for every 100 times he threw it, a phenomenal figure. His velocity is always constant and he's never really been an injury risk, but he's also never really been one to pitch more than one inning in an appearance. He pretty consistently averages exactly 1 inning per appearance and hasn't ever topped 67 appearances in his career, so for more liberal managers, Papelbon's usage may be a concern. But that's about the only downside to Papelbon, and it's not much of one, as most closers don't appear more than 70 times anyhow. The Red Sox can't afford to lose Papelbon, and will pay what it takes to keep him in the fold.
Prediction: Red Sox; 3 years, $45 million
10. Roy Oswalt, SP
2009-2011 averages: 10-10, 3.47 ERA, 28 starts, 177 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
The H2O rotation that was hyped beyond belief has come to a halt after a very short life, as Halladay and Hamels remain Phillies, while Oswalt's $16 million option was wisely declined. Oswalt's back problems have flared up again and seem to be haunting him as his career drags on. The fact of the matter is, it's tough to count on him for a full season. However, when he's on the mound, he's still a #2 pitcher in most rotations. His strikeouts have returned to their normal levels in 2011 after he posted an 8.2 K/9 in 2010. His FIP has always been great, and he posted a 3.44 FIP and 3.95 xFIP this year (3.35 FIP and 3.58 xFIP career). Oswalt does seem to be changing as a pitcher steadily but surely. The most noticeable change this year was the higher reliance on his fastball, throwing it 60% of the time in 2011 versus 55% in 2010. In 2010 when he threw his slider 15% of the time and his curve 10% of the time, he posted 2 more strikeouts per 9 innings, and a 2.76 ERA for the year. This year, he threw his fastball more, and his average velocity dropped a full mile per hour for the second consecutive year, but his combination of that and his changeup formed a formidable combination down the stretch of the season. This Fangraphs article goes into great detail about Oswalt's 2011 season and shows why there's reason to be optimistic about his future. He quickly realized that his sinker wasn't working and ditched it in favor of his fastball (which re-gained velocity as the season pressed on). He became a fastball-changeup pitcher after revamping his changeup grip in 2010, and it seems to have worked down the stretch for him. Removing May and June from his season, when he was potentially battling injury, Oswalt was a phenomenal starter.
He presents a bargain for a contender that needs a finishing piece. Teams that should inquire on Oswalt include Boston, Toronto, Detroit, Minnesota, the Angels, Nationals, Marlins, Mets, Cubs, and plenty of other teams. He'll attract a strong market, and he'll need no more than two years in all likelihood.
Prediction: Toronto; 2 years, $24 million
2009-2011 averages: 162 games played, 39 HR, 115 RBI, 97 R, .287/.409/.547, 155 OPS+
Prince is the second high-profile hitter available this offseason, and a fantastic middle of the order hitter to add to any lineup. Fielder posted the second best season of his career by pretty much any metric. His .299/.415/.566 line was only topped by his 2009 season. He had a 5.5 WAR season this year, and played almost every game again. Baseball analysts and executives alike have expressed concern about how Prince's 5'11" and 275 pound frame will hold up over the next 7 years, but Fielder has never missed more than 6 games in his career which sets those doubts aside. Separating the aspects that make up Wins Above Replacement (Batting, Fielding, Positional, Replacement, Base Running), Fielder was actually 5th in MLB in batting, making him the fifth most valuable hitter. That's pretty impressive especially considering that his WAR would be higher except that he plays at a traditional power hitting position (1st base is the easiest position to play, so WAR docks players accordingly).
For a guy named Fielder though, he sure doesn't acknowledge that part of the game. He was the fifth worst fielding first basemen in baseball (granted, the four worse fielders were far lower in grading). For this reason, it's likely he'll attract a heavy market in the AL, where teams can play him both at first base and slot him occasionally (or mainly) at DH.
Overall, I think Fielder is the second best free agent available, but the most interesting facet of this free agent group is the fact that its two premier players are at the same position. It'll be interesting to watch if he or Pujols sets the market for first basemen. I have a feeling Fielder will sign after Pujols, and likely for a deal approaching (if not surpassing) Mark Texieira's 8 year, $180 million deal ($22.5 million per year). If anyone in this offseason gets a deal longer than 7 years, it really should be Prince, as he's only 27. Most players hit their prime in their early 30s, so Prince would hypothetically only be beginning his decline towards the end of his deal.
Prediction: Blue Jays; 8 years, $185 million
3. Jose Reyes
2010-2011 averages: 130 games played, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 92 R, 34 SB, .309/.352/.460, 122 OPS+
Jose Reyes and C.C. Sabathia's free agent futures have been the central storylines of the New York baseball media this season. Well, C.C. signed an extension that'll guarantee him an extra $30 million, and C.C. only had to add one year to his deal ($25 million salary in 2016, and $5 million buyout in 2017 or $25 million salary in 2017). Reyes looks like he'll be the only one darting from the New York market, and his possibilities are limitless. Given that he's not a middle of the order hitter, he won't approach the Pujols and Fielder contracts. However, he is at an important defensive position, and offers a different type of threat to prospective buyers. His blazing speed gives pitching batteries fits trying to hold him down, and he's a feisty hitter at the plate, hitting .300 annually, as well as usually doing it at leadoff, putting his offense in a good position. Reyes' case for a big contract in 2011 actually seems to be about on par with Carl Crawford's argument in 2010. Reyes obviously has the injury history following him around, but he strikes out less than Carl Crawford and is a switch-hitter without a major split. He also plays a far more important defensive position (his fielding is average, but an average shortstop is still worth far more than a great left fielder) and doesn't complain about where he hits in the lineup. Crawford's public demand that he not be slotted at leadoff and that he hit third was ridiculous, and because of it, Crawford was the $142 million #7 hitter most of this year. Reyes at least will hit where he's set in the line-up and for that reason seems to be a better team player.
Reyes is the main reason I included the averages over multiple seasons. His 2011 season was above what can be reasonably expected from him (he hit .337/.384/.493 vs. his .292/.341/.441 career line, sound like Carl Crawford much?) and he's injury prone as demonstrated by his 130 game per season averagea. He's good for two DL stints a year in all likelihood (only one if he's lucky), and I had to omit 2009 from the average as he only played 36 games that year.
Reyes is set to be this free agent class' Carl Crawford. He won't get Crawford money, but he's going to get very, very close. I fully expect him to top $100 million and to push a Vernon Wells-caliber deal (7 years, $126 million). Unfortunately, in about four years, I'd expect Reyes' deal to look like just as much of an albatross as Wells' does. While Reyes is only 29 entering the 2012 season, he quite obviously had his career year, and while some speedsters maintain their swiftness on the basepaths through their careers, they lose power, and if Reyes loses the minimal power he has, he will be Juan Pierre at shortstop. Realistically, this is a .290/.350/.450 player at best, and I'm just not sure that an .800 OPS with speed at shortstop is worth $18-20 million a year through 2018 when plenty of guys in MLB could produce a somewhat similar OPS and make a third of what Reyes will make. Buyers beware.
Prediction: The Marlins make a major play at Reyes, but refuse to go high enough to meet Reyes' lofty demands. Brewers; 6 years, $110 million
4. C.J. Wilson, SP
2010-2011 averages: 16-8, 3.14 ERA, 214 IP, 1.215 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9
C.J. Wilson may have divebombed in the playoffs, but he's still the best free agent pitcher available this year and will contend for a $100 million contract. I'm pretty sure he's priced himself out of that market though, and is more of a $80 million-ish pitcher on the open market now. I've always thought he'd get an A.J. Burnett type deal, and that's about what I'll project for him. The Rangers ace has only been a starter for two years, and the experiment has worked beautifully. He's been a solid starting pitcher, and realistically by the numbers, has been the equivalent of an up-and-coming ace. Wilson's topped 200 innings in both seasons, and kept the ball in the park in Arlington (49.3% ground balls, .5 HR/9). If you can pitch in Arlington, you can pitch anywhere.
An interesting point about Wilson's success was that he had the third lowest BABIP on groundballs, and that Wilson has induced more double plays than all but three MLB pitchers over the past two years. His performance will fall off at least slightly almost wherever he goes, as Kinsler, Andrus, Beltre is quite possibly the best defensive left side of an infield in baseball, but he's still a quality pitcher, and the best bet of any in this class. I see a middling team signing him to lead their rotation in a hopeful effort to make a playoff push.'
Prediction: The Nationals, Marlins, and Phillies all go in on him, but the Nationals come away with him on a 5 year, $85 million deal.
5. Yu Darvish, SP
I will be completely honest, I'm not very familiar with Yu Darvish's arsenal or scouting report, so for that, I'll turn to another source:
He is right-handed, and throws from a three-quarters arm slot in a drop-and-drive motion. He has bulked up in recent years and is around 220 pounds, and is tall- around 6’5″. His fastball is in the 94 to 97 range. He has a 80mph slider-curveball combo pitch with a great break. He also throws a bunch of other pitches to confuse batters, such as cutter, change-up, two-seam fastball, and splitter. He stopped using the screwball because he got injured using it. His work ethic, conditioning, and stamina are legendary.If you're interested, his final start for Nippon can be watched here. And this link charts each pitch he threw through the game in order, classifying the type of pitch and the speed of each pitch. He does have great stuff, you can tell even from watching a limited portion of the game, but I did think he was somewhat wild.
Darvish is only 25, so this is the best time to sign the young Japanese starter. As we know from the Daisuke Matsuzaka posting, first, an MLB team must make a silent bid for the RIGHTS to negotiate with Darvish. That will likely take $50+ million alone. After that, whatever team wins will have a 30-day negotiating period with him to agree on contract terms. If Darvish isn't satisfied with the contract, he will return to Nippon, and the Ham Fighters will receive $50 million just for offering Darvish up, so MLB teams place a premium on signing the player should they win his rights. Darvish has the highest upside of any pitcher in this class since he's so young, but also could bust out as many Japanese pitchers have. This is the ultimate risk/reward signing of this group, especially since teams have to pay $50 million up front to talk to him. This just screams Yankees, and I'm picking them to sign him.
Prediction: Yankees; $55 million posting fee, 6 years, $55 million
6. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
2009-2011 averages: 118 games played, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 62 R, .286/.344/.491, 120 OPS+
Ramirez was bandied about at the trade deadline, but he ultimately turned down the trades with his no trade clause, saying he wanted to remain in Chicago. However, now he's in free agency, and money talks far more when there's $40 million on the table elsewhere from a winning team. Ramirez is one of the better hitting 3rd basemen in baseball, as his .871 OPS was only behind Beltre's .896 OPS at 3rd base. This past year was Aramis' best since 2008, mainly because he stayed healthy for 149 games. Aramis is another one of those guys that you can count on hitting the DL once every year. Regardless, he's a valuable bat in any lineup. The biggest drawback of Aramis is that he is one of the worst fielding 3rd basemen in baseball. Fangraphs ranked him second worst of qualifying 3rd basemen (only Mark Reynolds was worse, and he was horrible). Any team signing him is doing so purely for the bat. Aramis surely wants at least a 3 year deal in FA, and possibly more. I don't see any team committing to more than 3 years for him, but he'll get a hefty payday.
Aramis may be a butcher in the field at third base, but his bat is one of the best at the position, and many teams could use him for that simple fact. He's a top ten third baseman probably right now, so contenders who need another bat in the lineup at 3B need to go for it with Aramis. There's one perfect situation for him, where he could play next to Jhonny Peralta, and finally put Brandon Inge back in Toledo where he belongs permanently.
Prediction: Tigers; 3 years, $39 million.
7. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2009-2011 averages: 128 games played, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 78 R, 26 SB, .255/.316/.403, 91 OPS+
Rollins is the second best shortstop available this offseason, and given that shortstop is a premium position, I fully expect him to draw more of a market than he should. Rollins is still an above average shortstop, but how far above average, and is he going to maintain the production over the four or five-year deal he is demanding? Looking at his stats really puts what he is in perspective.
Let's compare his 2006-2008 average to his 2009-2011:
2006-2008 averages: 152 games played, 22 HR, 79 RBI, 114 R, 41 SB, .284/.342/.485, 108 OPS+
2009-2011 averages: 128 games played, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 78 R, 26 SB, .255/.316/.403, 91 OPS+
It's a startling difference. 108 points of OPS difference changed him from an above average hitter at every position to an above average hitter (somewhat) only at shortstop. Rollins really isn't the same player he used to be. Part of that can be credited to the fact the Phillies' whole offense has declined over the past couple years, but before this year, they were an elite offense, that Rollins led off for. Additionally he seems to be a bigger injury risk now than he once was. Yet again, looking at the three year statistics shows that Rollins isn't quite the find in free agency that many thought he was. He's a good shortstop but nothing great, and certainly not worth the money he's going to see. On the bright side, he walks more than he once did. On the downside, his BABIP has been below .280 the past three years, and that's not a blip, that's a trend. His line drive rate is down on average, and his flyball rate is up, while he's not homering as much as in his prime. Rollins is still a useful shortstop, but don't get it twisted, he's nothing extremely special. Similarly to Pujols, it's tough to see Rollins, the face of the Phillies' resurgence, leaving the organization to go elsewhere. In a Jeter-esque move, will the Phillies overpay their shortstop because of his impact on the organization over time, and keep him in the fold due to lack of better options? I say no, because the Phillies have a young SS waiting in the wings for 2013, and don't want to pay him for the sake of paying him.
Prediction: Giants; 4 years, $50 million
8. Carlos Beltran, OF
2009-2011 averages: 96 games played, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 50 R, 6 SB, .298/.384/.497, 141 OPS+
Beltran managed to put together a full season this year, avoiding most injuries, and as a result posted a .910 OPS and 22 HRs. His performance didn't suffer in the Giants' poor lineup either, so Beltran looks to still be an elite hitter. The problem with him always has been and always will be his injury history. In 2009, he played 81 games and in 2010 played 64. He's a walking injury, moreso than almost any player in baseball. When he's on the field though, he's dynamic. He's a patient hitter as well, drawing walks in 12% of his at bats in 2011. Beltran's BABIP was a bit higher than normal (.324 vs. .303 career) and he also hit groundballs at an unusually low frequency (only 39% of batted balls) in combination with 21% line drives, but those statistics are close to his averages. Beltran can be counted on for an .875 OPS year-in and year-out still, but the counting stats are very unreliable. As far as his fielding goes, he's still an alright right fielder when healthy, but whatever team signs him will likely want to put him at DH often. Beltran expressed displeasure for DH'ing in July during trade talks, but the Red Sox can offer him a half-right field and half-DH job to prolong his health and appease his requests. It makes too much sense to me to not happen.
Prediction: Red Sox; 3 years, $39 million
9. Jonathan Papelbon, RP
2009-2011 averages: 65 games, 2.89 ERA, 66 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 10.8 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
There is a glut of closers available this offseason, and despite the cries of "Papelblown" I hear coming from Boston right now, Papelbon is easily the best available reliever. In 2011 he had the best year of his career. He posted a 1.53 FIP along with 12.17 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and a 0.42 HR/9. He seemed nearly unhittable this year, and posted a 3.0 WAR season, which is almost unthinkable for a reliever, especially considering that he only pitched in 63 games. Papelbon's pitch arsenal is pretty well-advertised by now, he's got a fastball that can touch high 90's or 100, and a slider and splitter that he throws about 25% combined just to keep batters honest. His breaking pitches were more effective this year than ever before, as his splitter was a full 2.3 runs above average for every 100 times he threw it, a phenomenal figure. His velocity is always constant and he's never really been an injury risk, but he's also never really been one to pitch more than one inning in an appearance. He pretty consistently averages exactly 1 inning per appearance and hasn't ever topped 67 appearances in his career, so for more liberal managers, Papelbon's usage may be a concern. But that's about the only downside to Papelbon, and it's not much of one, as most closers don't appear more than 70 times anyhow. The Red Sox can't afford to lose Papelbon, and will pay what it takes to keep him in the fold.
Prediction: Red Sox; 3 years, $45 million
10. Roy Oswalt, SP
2009-2011 averages: 10-10, 3.47 ERA, 28 starts, 177 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
The H2O rotation that was hyped beyond belief has come to a halt after a very short life, as Halladay and Hamels remain Phillies, while Oswalt's $16 million option was wisely declined. Oswalt's back problems have flared up again and seem to be haunting him as his career drags on. The fact of the matter is, it's tough to count on him for a full season. However, when he's on the mound, he's still a #2 pitcher in most rotations. His strikeouts have returned to their normal levels in 2011 after he posted an 8.2 K/9 in 2010. His FIP has always been great, and he posted a 3.44 FIP and 3.95 xFIP this year (3.35 FIP and 3.58 xFIP career). Oswalt does seem to be changing as a pitcher steadily but surely. The most noticeable change this year was the higher reliance on his fastball, throwing it 60% of the time in 2011 versus 55% in 2010. In 2010 when he threw his slider 15% of the time and his curve 10% of the time, he posted 2 more strikeouts per 9 innings, and a 2.76 ERA for the year. This year, he threw his fastball more, and his average velocity dropped a full mile per hour for the second consecutive year, but his combination of that and his changeup formed a formidable combination down the stretch of the season. This Fangraphs article goes into great detail about Oswalt's 2011 season and shows why there's reason to be optimistic about his future. He quickly realized that his sinker wasn't working and ditched it in favor of his fastball (which re-gained velocity as the season pressed on). He became a fastball-changeup pitcher after revamping his changeup grip in 2010, and it seems to have worked down the stretch for him. Removing May and June from his season, when he was potentially battling injury, Oswalt was a phenomenal starter.
He presents a bargain for a contender that needs a finishing piece. Teams that should inquire on Oswalt include Boston, Toronto, Detroit, Minnesota, the Angels, Nationals, Marlins, Mets, Cubs, and plenty of other teams. He'll attract a strong market, and he'll need no more than two years in all likelihood.
Prediction: Toronto; 2 years, $24 million
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