Week 7 NCAA Preview and Poll

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Wisconsin
5. Boise State
6. Stanford
7. Oklahoma State
8. Clemson
9. Oregon
10. Michigan
11. Georgia Tech
12. Illinois
13. Kansas State
14. Arkansas
15. West Virginia
16. South Carolina
17. Nebraska
18. Arizona State
19. Baylor
20. Virginia Tech
21. Michigan State
22. Texas 
23. Texas A&M
24. Washington
25. Notre Dame


Notes:
- LSU and Alabama stay 1 and 2 on my poll, and they're pretty easily the best teams this year in my opinion.  If their game against one another is a nail-biter, I may still keep them #1 and #2, because that's honestly how I view them.
- I put 12 of the 13 undefeateds in the top 13, and only left Oregon in the top 10 as a 1-loss team.  Oregon is pretty clearly the best one loss team to me (they lost to LSU 40-27).  Illinois and Kansas State get a boost from the normal polls as a result.  Houston is the 13th undefeated but I'm not ready to rank them honestly.
- Washington gets a nod from me and appears in the top 25, QB Keith Price has played very well, and they're so surprising that I like to recognize their accomplishments.

#11 Michigan at #23 Michigan State (-3) (Saturday, 12:00 PM, ESPN): 


One of the games of the week has an early start, saving us all from the boredom that was Noon to 7 PM last week. Michigan's a surprise undefeated team and puts that undefeated record on the line in East Lansing against Rival Sparty.  The Spartans have won the last 3 renditions of this rivalry, all coached by Rich Rodriguez on Michigan's behalf, and last year's wasn't even close.  Michigan State comes in with the #1 defense in yards allowed, and has really only allowed Notre Dame to score on them.  Problem is, their offense didn't score on Notre Dame, and didn't score on Ohio State; both of which are the only good defenses they've played.

The key to this matchup will be Michigan's passing against a solid MSU secondary.  Denard looked awful in the first half against Northwestern, and played like an All American in the second half.  He needs to keep his mechanics in order, as under pressure, he'll throw off his back foot rather than standing tall in the pocket and taking a hit after the pass.  Also, Michigan needs to stick with running Denard 15-20 times in this game, as he's their best running game.  They've diversified the offense even more than Rich Rodriguez did, adding in the speed option, a flexbone type formation where Denard lines up as a running back, and other wrinkles to keep defenses on their toes.  They've largely abandoned the pro-style offensive philosophy which is smart, and offensive coordinator Al Borges deserves a lot of credit for sticking with what worked and scheming around Denard, rather than trying to fit Denard into a pro-style scheme.  I'm taking Michigan in a close one here.  Denard runs for 100 and throws for 200, and the Michigan defense holds up MSU just enough to pull out a solid road victory.

The Pick: Michigan 31-24

#7 Oklahoma State (-5.5) at #22 Texas (Saturday, 3:30 PM, ESPN/ABC): 


Texas already took a beating from the Sooners, and now Oklahoma's in-state rivals are in Austin to accomplish the same feat.  The Cowboys are undefeated and firing on all cylinders on offense.  Even the defense has been slightly more impressive than was expected, although this still isn't a good defense.  Now they'll face the duo of Texas QBs, Case McCoy and the more mobile David Ash.  Texas offensive coordinator insists on playing David Ash every third drive for some reason, which disrupts the offense.  They should be able to put up SOME points on Oklahoma State's mediocre to bad defense.  Unfortunately for the Longhorns, Oklahoma State is still firing on all cylinders on offense even without Dana Holgorsen.  QB Brandon Weeden is in Heisman talks, and RB Joseph Randle has emerged to give the offense at least a threat of a running game that prevents opponents from dropping 8 into coverage every play.  Oklahoma State is simply too good for Texas.  Texas' defense will sort of keep them within striking distance, but never close enough to legitimately win the game.

The Pick: Oklahoma State 41-28

#20 Baylor at #21 Texas A&M (Saturday, 12:00 PM, FX): 


In what's sure to be an offensive shootout (The Vegas Over/Under line is 76), Baylor, who allowed 36 points to the running attack of Kansas State and 48 points to TCU, faces off against the 120th ranked pass defense in the country of the Texas A&M Aggies.  Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill will take center stage for their teams, as the offensive shootout really won't feature much defense.  A&M does possess the better running game with Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael, but Baylor RB Terrence Ganaway has also been solid this year.  In the end, it'll come down to which quarterback makes less mistakes, and seeing as Robert Griffin III only has 28 incompletions all season, I'll go with him to make less mistakes.  Baylor gets a big win, and Robert Griffin keeps himself in the Heisman conversation.

The Pick: Baylor 45-42

#4 Wisconsin (-40) vs Indiana (Saturday, 12:00 PM, ESPN2): 


Why is this game being previewed?  No, it's not likely to be a real game, or anything resembling competitive, but I wanted to highlight the fact that Wisconsin is favored by 40 points against an actual BCS-conference team.  It really speaks to how weak the Big Ten is right now, with programs like Minnesota, Purdue, and Indiana stuck as cellar-dwellers with no potential for upward mobility.  Wisconsin will roll in this one, and could top 70 points depending on how long Russell Wilson and Wisconsin's starters remain in the game.

The Pick: Wisconsin 66-14

North Carolina (-2) vs Miami (FL) (Saturday, 12:00 PM, ESPN3):


If North Carolina wants to even have a remote chance of making the ACC Championship game, they're going to need to win this game.  While they're at a severe disadvantage (Georgia Tech is 3-0 in ACC play, and North Carolina's 1-1, having lost to Georgia Tech already), there's still hope, so they need to hold things together in this game.  North Carolina has allowed only 18.5 points per game this year to opponents, thanks to future NFL players like DE Donte Paige-Moss, DE Quinton Coples, LB Zach Brown, and CB Charles Brown.  They face off against the Hurricanes and what may be the best RB in the country, Lamar Miller.  He's averaging 7 yards per carry and has 660 yards on the young season in under 100 carries.  Miller's got breakaway speed and the patience of a much more experienced player.  QB Jacory Harris has limited his turnovers this year and only thrown 3 interceptions, so even the passing game is looking good.  On UNC's side, QB Bryn Renner has a dynamic receiver in Dwight Jones, and RB Giovani Bernard is averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  This could be an unexpected shootout type game, sort of like Miami-Virginia Tech was last week.  Given how poor Miami's pass defense was against Logan Thomas last week, I'm going to take North Carolina here, in a close one.

The Pick: North Carolina 27-24

#1 LSU (-17) vs Tennessee (Saturday, 3:30 PM, CBS):


For the second consecutive week, LSU will be kicking an SEC opponent while it's down, as Tennessee has lost QB Tyler Bray for a month or more.  Tennessee doesn't have any hope in this game with Matt Simms leading the team, although he has starting experience from last season.  LSU is going to just wipe the floor with the Volunteers unfortunately, and cement themselves even further as the #1 team in the country.

The Pick:  LSU 38-10

#16 Illinois (-3.5) vs Ohio State (Saturday, 3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN):


Illinois is undefeated and their offense will face its toughest test yet in the Buckeyes defense, which aside from the second half against Nebraska last week, has looked thoroughly impressive.  However, Illinois' defense may have a field day against Ohio State.  Braxton Miller is roughed up but will start, and Joe Bauserman finally showed the coaches enough to demote him to third on the depth chart.  2009 recruit Kenny Guiton has taken more snaps in practice and will be the backup to Braxton.  Guiton can help keep plays alive with mobility similarly to Braxton, but isn't as dynamic as him.  Illinois' defense isn't exactly impressive, but OSU's offense has been pretty stagnant this year, so I don't see them scoring all that much.  QB Nathan Scheelhaase and WR AJ Jenkins will likely connect for a touchdown, 100+ yards, and lead the Illini to a 7-0 start.

The Pick: Illinois 34-20

Florida (-2) at #24 Auburn (Saturday, 7:00 PM, ESPN): 


Both teams are struggling at quarterback, and both have yet to deliver on preseason hype as a result.  Jacoby Brissett will get his second start at QB this week, after facing LSU in his debut.  He should face far less resistance against a poor Auburn defense.  Auburn's QB Barrett Trotter struggled mightily last week in the 38-14 loss to Arkansas, and there's been some pushing to start touted backup QB Kiehl Frazier, who's more of a wildcat quarterback at this point.  Trotter will stay in the game, but look for Gene Chizik to have a quick hook if Florida goes up early.  Florida should win this game, as their defense is far more formidable than Auburn's, but don't expect either offense to score much.

The Pick: Florida 24-17

#9 Oregon (-14.5) vs. #18 Arizona State (Saturday, 10:15 PM, ESPN): 


What could be the game of the night, may actually be this nightcap.  Both teams feature high-powered offenses, and this could be a Pac-12 shootout in primetime.  Oregon's offense took a hit after losing LaMichael James, and this doesn't seem to be getting enough attention.  James is the nation's second leading rusher with 820 yards on a mere 94 carries, and losing him will hurt.  Oregon may be able to soften the blow better than any team in the country however, as freshman RB/slot WR De'Anthony Thomas has looked dynamic and may be the Ducks' big-play guy for years to come, and RB Kenjon Barner is solid in his limited duty.  The rushing game should still be solid, but won't be as explosive as it is with the threat of LaMichael James in the backfield.  The Ducks' passing game has taken a major step back after the loss of WR Jeff Maehl.  No WR has stepped up in his absence, as De'Anthony Thomas is the leading receiver and LaMichael James the third leading receiver.  De'Anthony Thomas will be leaned on heavily in this game and may see 20+ touches.

On the Sun Devils' side, QB Brock Osweiler has played exceptionally in his first full season starting, and the 6'8" giant with a rocket arm looks to exploit a vulnerable Oregon pass defense.  The key will be if RB Cameron Marshall and Arizona State's running game can help them put together long drives, by putting them in 3rd and short situations.  If Arizona State is constantly in 3rd and long, Oregon's creative blitzes will probably spell the end for Arizona State.  This should be a fun game to watch, and College Gameday is there for the game, but in the end, Oregon should end up on top.

The Pick: Oregon 45-34