Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.
So last week it was looking like Jeff Gordon would get a strong finish that would catapult him near the top of the Sprint Cup standings. Gordon has been a bit like a rubber band so far in this Chase so it was only fitting that he blew up and not sits tenth in the standings. That's how things go unfortunately but it may have stuck a fork in Gordon's championship dreams. Of course he can still rebound and a strong finish this week in Charlotte isn't out of the realm of possibility, but if he follows his status quo he'll do well this week before blowing up at Talladega next week. I'm not quite ready to concede that I picked the wrong horse in this race but I will admit that I have been considering other possibilities. Especially now that Gordon doesn't control his own destiny and would require the guys ahead of him to stumble a bit and come backwards in the standings.
So this week the Chase is in Charlotte for the Bank of America 500. Bank of America could use the publicity of the race to take away the fact that simply searching them on Google leads to thousands of angry posts about their new debit card fee policy. On top of that, they're also facing down a bill in Congress and...I'll just go ahead and stop now, this is a sports blog, not a political one. So yeah, Charlotte is this week. This is a track that caters to one driver more than anyone else, especially in Chase time, and that's Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has started 20 races at Charlotte and won six of them. To go with those six wins he has another four top-5s (10 total) and four other finishes in the top-10 (14 total). His average finish of 10.8 is the second highest behind only Joey Logano, but Logano only has five starts by comparison. Johnson is coming off of a victory last week and he sits third in points, four behind Carl Edwards. This could be a statement victory for Johnson as he attempts to put away his sixth consecutive championship and that's why I will pick him to win this weekend. He also could use a great start this week with the chaotic nature of Talladega and his tendency to get caught in the "Big One."
So what about the two men ahead of Johnson in points? Carl Edwards is no slouch at Charlotte, with over half of his starts (seven out of 13) going for top-10s. Four of those have been top-5s but he has never won at this track. His 13.3 average finish is behind only Johnson and Logano (I won't count Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s one start) so this could be yet another strong finish for Carl. Kevin Harvick, on the other hand, has struggled at this track. Stop me if you've heard this before, but in 21 starts he only has five top-10s and two top-5s. Granted one of those was a win but his average finish of 19.1 puts him behind the vast majority of Chase drivers. The thing about Harvick, especially this year, is that he doesn't have the flashy numbers but he always finds himself near the front. I would say he was like Matt Kenseth during his championship run but at least Harvick has won some races. I think he'll finish last among the top three, though, but it should still equal a top-10 finish.
Next up are the drivers who are on the cusp of jumping into the top of the standings but need a little bit of help. Brad Keselowski is 11 behind and let's just ignore his four starts (average finish of 19.5). Right now he is the biggest wildcard in the standings because no one quite knows what to expect each week from the "Blue Deuce." I would call for another top-10 finish that would keep him looming largely over the points race but fail to make up any significant amount of ground. Matt Kenseth is next and he is only one point behind Keselowski and 12 out of the top spot. Kenseth has 12 top-10s in 24 career races and that's what you can look for this weekend from the #17. Just keep an eye on him, because he does have the highest percentage of DNFs (21%). Kurt Busch suffered a setback after winning two weeks ago and finds himself in sixth place, 16 points out of first. This is actually one of his weakest tracks and he's the second worst in average finish among those in the Chase (19.7 average finish, 22 starts and only six top-10s). I won't count Kurt out, even at a track that he struggles with, but I don't think he'll make up any ground in the standings. Finally, we round out the top eight with Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch. Stewart is actually right behind Edwards in average finish (13.8) and he has 11 top-10s in 25 starts. Kyle has eight top-10s in 15 career starts by comparison. These two will be the biggest movers on Saturday and I think that both will end up in the top-5 in the standings after it is all said and done (with Keselowski, Kenseth, and Kurt Busch falling back).
The final four drivers in the Chase are all on life support, including my pick, Jeff Gordon. Gordon has 20 top-10s in 37 starts and has also won five times at Charlotte. Past success won't help much, though, and anything short of a top-5 finish or better could stick a fork in him. In fact, he's actually behind Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the standings (four points to be exact, 43 and 47 behind Edwards respectively). Jr's average finish of 19.4 doesn't instill much confidence and it's highly unlikely that he'll contend on Sunday. I do think he'll make a "last stand" of sorts next week but don't expect a lot here. Finally we have Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin, both of which are all but mathematically eliminated at this point. Newman is 54 points out of first and Hamlin is 79 behind and neither has done much at Charlotte. Newman is the only driver behind Kurt Busch in average finish (20.9) and that's even with his ability to start out front (nine poles). Hamlin has fared better at 16.6 but he's only cracked the top-5 once in 12 starts.
As far as a driver outside of the Chase to be on the lookout for, keep your eye on Kasey Kahne. Kahne has seven top-10s in 15 career starts and he has also won three times. He has said that he wants to win a race before the end of the year for Red Bull Racing and I think he has a great shot at doing just that. It wouldn't surprise me if he is the highest finisher of the non-Chase drivers but it would be a bit of an upset to see him roll into victory lane. It may be the best shot that the field has to upset the top-12 for the rest of the season.
So this week the Chase is in Charlotte for the Bank of America 500. Bank of America could use the publicity of the race to take away the fact that simply searching them on Google leads to thousands of angry posts about their new debit card fee policy. On top of that, they're also facing down a bill in Congress and...I'll just go ahead and stop now, this is a sports blog, not a political one. So yeah, Charlotte is this week. This is a track that caters to one driver more than anyone else, especially in Chase time, and that's Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has started 20 races at Charlotte and won six of them. To go with those six wins he has another four top-5s (10 total) and four other finishes in the top-10 (14 total). His average finish of 10.8 is the second highest behind only Joey Logano, but Logano only has five starts by comparison. Johnson is coming off of a victory last week and he sits third in points, four behind Carl Edwards. This could be a statement victory for Johnson as he attempts to put away his sixth consecutive championship and that's why I will pick him to win this weekend. He also could use a great start this week with the chaotic nature of Talladega and his tendency to get caught in the "Big One."
So what about the two men ahead of Johnson in points? Carl Edwards is no slouch at Charlotte, with over half of his starts (seven out of 13) going for top-10s. Four of those have been top-5s but he has never won at this track. His 13.3 average finish is behind only Johnson and Logano (I won't count Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s one start) so this could be yet another strong finish for Carl. Kevin Harvick, on the other hand, has struggled at this track. Stop me if you've heard this before, but in 21 starts he only has five top-10s and two top-5s. Granted one of those was a win but his average finish of 19.1 puts him behind the vast majority of Chase drivers. The thing about Harvick, especially this year, is that he doesn't have the flashy numbers but he always finds himself near the front. I would say he was like Matt Kenseth during his championship run but at least Harvick has won some races. I think he'll finish last among the top three, though, but it should still equal a top-10 finish.
Next up are the drivers who are on the cusp of jumping into the top of the standings but need a little bit of help. Brad Keselowski is 11 behind and let's just ignore his four starts (average finish of 19.5). Right now he is the biggest wildcard in the standings because no one quite knows what to expect each week from the "Blue Deuce." I would call for another top-10 finish that would keep him looming largely over the points race but fail to make up any significant amount of ground. Matt Kenseth is next and he is only one point behind Keselowski and 12 out of the top spot. Kenseth has 12 top-10s in 24 career races and that's what you can look for this weekend from the #17. Just keep an eye on him, because he does have the highest percentage of DNFs (21%). Kurt Busch suffered a setback after winning two weeks ago and finds himself in sixth place, 16 points out of first. This is actually one of his weakest tracks and he's the second worst in average finish among those in the Chase (19.7 average finish, 22 starts and only six top-10s). I won't count Kurt out, even at a track that he struggles with, but I don't think he'll make up any ground in the standings. Finally, we round out the top eight with Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch. Stewart is actually right behind Edwards in average finish (13.8) and he has 11 top-10s in 25 starts. Kyle has eight top-10s in 15 career starts by comparison. These two will be the biggest movers on Saturday and I think that both will end up in the top-5 in the standings after it is all said and done (with Keselowski, Kenseth, and Kurt Busch falling back).
The final four drivers in the Chase are all on life support, including my pick, Jeff Gordon. Gordon has 20 top-10s in 37 starts and has also won five times at Charlotte. Past success won't help much, though, and anything short of a top-5 finish or better could stick a fork in him. In fact, he's actually behind Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the standings (four points to be exact, 43 and 47 behind Edwards respectively). Jr's average finish of 19.4 doesn't instill much confidence and it's highly unlikely that he'll contend on Sunday. I do think he'll make a "last stand" of sorts next week but don't expect a lot here. Finally we have Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin, both of which are all but mathematically eliminated at this point. Newman is 54 points out of first and Hamlin is 79 behind and neither has done much at Charlotte. Newman is the only driver behind Kurt Busch in average finish (20.9) and that's even with his ability to start out front (nine poles). Hamlin has fared better at 16.6 but he's only cracked the top-5 once in 12 starts.
As far as a driver outside of the Chase to be on the lookout for, keep your eye on Kasey Kahne. Kahne has seven top-10s in 15 career starts and he has also won three times. He has said that he wants to win a race before the end of the year for Red Bull Racing and I think he has a great shot at doing just that. It wouldn't surprise me if he is the highest finisher of the non-Chase drivers but it would be a bit of an upset to see him roll into victory lane. It may be the best shot that the field has to upset the top-12 for the rest of the season.
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