This week the NASCAR schedule heads into Pocono Raceway for the Good Sam RV Insurance 500. When the Sprint Cup series last invaded Pennsylvania it was all about Jeff Gordon and the Busch Bros. So there is no better place to start than that very same top three when looking at this weekend's event.
Jeff Gordon is coming off of a disappointing second place finish at the Brickyard 400. Though most drivers would happily take the points and move on, Gordon was consistently the fastest car on the track. At the end he made a surge to the front that just fell short. I don't really know why Gordon went through the slump he did the past two years but something seems to have clicked between him and new crew chief Alan Gustafson this year. Coming into Pocono, Gordon is one of the track's most dominant racers. In 37 career races at the track he has 26 top-10s, 17 top-5s, and five wins. Five of his other starts have ended with DNFs but his average finish is still third among active drivers (10.3). Look for him to be near the front all day once again and challenge for the win.
As for the Busch bros, Kurt has far more success and experience at the track than his younger brother Kyle. Kurt has started 21 races and finished in the top-10 11 times. He also has eight top-5s and two victories but his average finish is near the middle of the pack (16.1). Kurt grabbed his first pole at the track earlier this year when he was in the midst of winning three straight so don't expect him to start on the front row this week. I'm calling for a strong finish as Kurt will be looking to rebound after losing three spots in The Chase, but no victory. Rowdy Busch has been a bit of an enigma at Pocono. In 13 career starts he has four top -10s, three top-5s, and 2 DNFs. His average finish is 18.8 and he has never won at the track. Kyle is a threat to win no matter where the Sprint Cup series goes but Pocono is not one of his favorite locales. His older brother will probably get the best of him once again but look for Kyle to sneak his way into another top-10 finish.
The winningest active driver at Pocono in the past 10 years, by no real surprise, is Denny Hamlin. Even though this season seems like a bit of a lost cause following last year (where he almost dethroned Jimmie Johnson), Denny is still comfortably in the top 12 (currently 11th, 13 points ahead of Clint Bowyer and 27 up on 13th place Greg Biffle) and barring a collapse he will make the cutoff. However, one big thing has changed: after winning eight races last year, Hamlin only has one (at Michigan) in this year's campaign. Another win would go a long way towards improving his chances and there's no better place than Pocono (well, except Martinsville) for Denny to break through. Along with his four wins (only one behind Jeff Gordon and Bill Elliott, who lead active drivers since 1975), he has seven top-5s, eight top-10s, and an average finish of 9.2. He also has the best average start of all drivers (5.9) and has completed each of his 11 races. Denny had a disappointing finish of 19th in June's race but don't expect a repeat, he'll finish in the top-5.
My pick to win this race is currently the series' #2 man: Jimmie Johnson. He is second behind Hamlin in average finish (9.3, only a tenth behind in eight more career races). He is also sitting second in points, eleven behind Carl Edwards. If he won he would have, you guessed it, his second victory on the year. I know, Jimmie has that sixth championship on his mind but I'm sure he would love to win at Pocono. In 19 career starts he has 13 top-10s, seven top-5s, and two victories. The biggest thing to check for Jimmie, though, is the DNF department, and this week we find another good sign: zero DNFs. He finished fourth in June and look for him to come in first this weekend.
My dark horse this week is a bit of a reach. Though I was going to go with either Carl Edwards or Tony Stewart, you really can't say either of those guys would be a surprise. Both of them have won two races a piece at the track and both have a lot of momentum going into this race. So with that, I am choosing a guy who has also won at Pocono: Kasey Kahne. In 15 career starts Kahne also has five top-10s and three top-5s. He also has a sparkling average start position of 9.4, which is fifth among active drivers (behind Hamlin, Johnson, Mark Martin, and Ryan Newman). Kahne is a great driver, and perhaps the uncertainty of Red Bull Racing has affected him this year (currently he sits in 15th in the standings). Maybe he is also looking longingly at his future employer, Hendrick Motorsports and is raring to get his hands on the #5. I'm unsure what ails Kasey this year but expect him to finish well this weekend and challenge for the win.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment