Texas Longhorns:
Texas is the evil dictator of the conference, and no Kansas, your opinion matters not to Bevo and Burnt Orange Nation. The Longhorn Network will air quality programming like Texas water polo and Texas football games against Rice or something, but regardless, will expand Texas' already dominant presence in the South. That really won't affect them this season though, or help them for that matter, because Garrett Gilbert is still their quarterback. Gilbert was anointed the starting QB again, almost solely because he's the steadying veteran presence type, sorta like how Jake Delhomme started for the Cleveland Browns last year even though everyone (including the Browns coaching staff) knew he was going to throw 2 interceptions in each game (Hey, Garrett does that too!). Additionally their top two returning receivers left the team; ?? to run really fast in preparation for the 2012 Olympics and ?? for personal reasons. Malcolm Brown, the top 2011 RB recruit is who much of Texas' hopes and dreams rest upon. Texas has lacked a top tier RB since they had Jamaal Charles (who was underutilized in college just like he is in the pros) or Cedric Benson, and now looks to finally have one. This becomes more important when taking into account that Colt McCoy and Vince Young both had far more footspeed and mobility than Garrett Gilbert does. Texas looted Boise State's offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, who is expected to turn Garrett Gilbert into Kellen Moore and Texas' 3rd and 4th best receiving options into Austin Pettis and Titus Young (good luck dude, you'll need it). This isn't to say that Texas doesn't have talent, but is saying that the players Texas does put on the field bring major question marks along for the ride with them.
On the defensive side, Kheeston Randall at DT and Emmanuel Acho at LB are the standouts, and Texas' front 7 should be formidable as usual. However, their secondary is very young and inexperienced, so they could end up in more shootouts than they'd like, given their QB situation. Manny Diaz takes over for Will Muschamp as defensive coordinator. Diaz is coming off a fantastic season at Mississippi State, and is an unorthodox, outside-the-box defensive mind who blitzes a lot, from all over the place. He ran every formation imaginable at MSU, so it'll be interesting to see how his defensive mind transitions to Texas with their talent.
Iowa State:
If I asked 100 random people their thoughts on Iowa State Cyclones football, here are the likely poll results
- They play football there?
- They're a second tier school in the state of Iowa, they probably suck
- Having a natural disaster as a mascot is pretty weird
Here is Clone Chronicles' (Iowa State's blog on SBNation) quick synopsis of the outlook on 2011 Cyclones football:
We are the Iowa State Cyclones, we're about to play the nation's 2nd hardest schedule, and we may not even have a conference to call home next year. We seem to be the perpetual punchline to the sad joke that is the Big XII's death rattles.
An afterthought (to say the least) on the Division-I football landscape, Iowa State actually had a fairly big year for themselves, beating Texas and Texas Tech and finishing 5-7, which for them was a major accomplishment. Unfortunately, they lost their QB in Austen Arnaud, are without their leading rusher Alexander Robinson, and lost their top two receivers to graduation. On the fortunate side (for those of us fans who like awesome names), Steele Jantz will lead the Cyclones onto the field for their mercy killings at the hands of any respectable Big 12 team this fall. Yes, Steele Jantz is a real name. Steele is a JuCo transfer who has some speed, rushing for 601 yards and over 10 touchdowns last year, and threw for 3,000+ yards. But he is not the next Cam Newton or anything close in all likelihood, so obviously expectations for this offense should be tempered. They were ranked 95th in passing offense last year, and I wouldn't expect much better this year. They do return 3 starters on the OL, and hopefully that will help their collection of RBs do a decent job establishing a running game. The defense is a sieve, and there's really not much else to say about it. I've already spent too much time on Iowa State to be honest. Unless Steele Jantz is the second coming, expect a 4-8 season or something like it.
Nebraska Cornhuskers:
Taking their ethanol harvesters to the Big 10, because Nebraska wants to be in a more prestigious conference, but a conference still too dumb to count how many members it has.
Colorado Buffaloes:
Colorado is now considered a Pacific Coast school upon their induction into the Pac-12. Yeah, sure, and the next thing you'll tell me is that the Big East, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 will go after schools in Texas.
/oh wait, that really happened
Baylor Bears:
Baylor should really petition to have their mascot changed to the Griffins and put a big sticker of Robert Griffin III on their helmet, because he's the only thing keeping them anywhere close to relevance. The rest of this team is pretty untalented, but Robert Griffin is the southern version of Denard Robinson, so he's kept Baylor afloat, sort of. He's possibly a better dual-threat QB than Denard too, as he completed a remarkable 67% of his passes last year, throwing for 3,501 yards, a 22:8 TD:INT ratio, and also adding 653 rushing yards. Griffin is a danger, and could represent big problems for teams whose front 7 is unsettled or ineffective.
Now for the negative. Baylor lost the following this offseason:
- 6 of their 7 leading tacklers on defense
- Their leading rusher, Jay Finley (over 1,200 yards in 2010)
- Their second receiver, Thomas Gordon (714 yards in 2010)
- Danny Watkins, a starting OT who was drafted in the 1st round of 2011's NFL Draft
That's quite a bit to replace, and it honestly just means Robert Griffin will be shouldering the load of the Baylor Bears this year. More accurately, his knees will be carrying the team. Griffin tore his ACL two years ago and missed an entire season, so keeping him healthy is crucial. If Griffin goes down, this team may be lucky to win two games in his absence. He's one of the more talented players in America, and is definitely one to watch this year. Him even getting Baylor to another bowl would be a phenomenal achievement, but past that, it's not realistic to expect much else. They'll probably get one upset in late October or November, but they'll be a very middling team otherwise.
Kansas Jayhawks:
There's not much to be excited about here. Long gone are the days of Todd Reesing at quarterback and a surprisingly effective offense that led Kansas to national prominence. Now here are the days of Turner Gill at head coach and losing to North Dakota State. Kansas will be very bad in all likelihood and struggle to make a bowl again. Sophomore runningback James Sims is one of the few exciting players on the team, the rest of the team is fairly devoid of talent. Linebacker Darius Willis, who has NFL potential, followed Gill from Buffalo to Kansas, and will lead the defense this year. QB Jordan Webb wins the QB position by default, as the top contender Brock Berglund was dismissed by the team due to troubles off the field. As a team, Kansas didn't even reach 2,000 total passing yards, and threw more interceptions than touchdowns. The fact that Jordan Webb was the primary QB for that abomination of a passing game last year doesn't exactly inspire confidence that it stands to improve. Kansas will struggle to make a bowl again, and will be the whipping boy of the Big 12. Even Iowa State thinks Kansas is pathetic.
Fans are already lining up at Allen Fieldhouse chanting Rock Chalk Jayhawk, because they know the only sport they'll look forward to this fall is basketball. Okay, I'll stop piling on, I think you get the picture.
Kansas State Wildcats:
What can Brown do for you? If you're Miami or Tennessee, they can leave your program in the dust and become Kansas State Wildcats. The brothers Brown, Arthur (MLB) and Bryce (RB), look to have major impacts on the Wildcats' season this year. Bryce will likely shoulder most of the offensive load, especially with the graduation of QB Carson Coffman and the departure of RB Daniel Thomas to the NFL. QB Collin Klein will take the snaps this year, and his versatility (nearly 5 yards per carry last season in 76 carries) will help keep defenses honest, but it remains to be seen how effective of a passer he'll be.
On defense, Kansas State was 119th in stopping the run last year, allowing over 230 rushing yards per game, even in the pass-happy Big 12. They're hoping Arthur Brown can help stop the ebb and flow of the front 7, but he may not be enough.
Kansas State has some potential given the talent of the Brown brothers, but the team as a whole isn't overly talented. It's foolish to expect more than a 6-6 or 7-5 season from KSU this year honestly.
Texas A&M Aggies:
Within the last 24 hours, A&M announced they're leaving the Big 12 in the dust to go become a mediocre SEC team. They may stand to make more money as the SEC will now enter the Texas market, but their future prospects are much more dim.
Now for this year's team. Former receiver Ryan Tannehill was a revelation at quarterback last season, and stole the job from perennial underachiever Jerrod Johnson. Once Tannehill took control of the team, the Aggies made a push at the top of the Big 12, and went to the Cotton Bowl, only to be undressed on national TV by Jordan Jefferson. However, they begin this season in the top 10 of almost every poll and are a dark horse national championship contender. Their offense features two great RBs in Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael, and one of the nation's top receivers in Jeff Fuller along with the dependable Ryan Swope flanking him. Overall the Aggies return 10 offensive starters, meaning four offensive lineman also return. This continuity is expected to allow the Aggies to improve their offensive production from the already impressive 443 yards and 30.3 points per game they put up last season.
A&M also returns 8 defensive starters, but did lose two linebackers, the most important obviously being Von Miller, who was drafted 2nd overall in the 2011 NFL Draft. Their defense could be above average thanks to continuity, but losing three members of the front 7 could greatly downgrade their pass rush. It's yet to be seen, and this is the major storyline to watch with the Aggies. There isn't a much better QB-RB-WR combo than Tannehill-Gray-Fuller, but if the defense can't hold its own, the Aggies may be in for a disappointing season.
Texas Tech Red Raiders:
While Mike Leach wasn't at the helms, Tommy Tuberville and his offensive coordinator Neal Brown still ran a pass-happy, up-tempo offense. Brown was formerly the offensive coordinator at Troy, who employed the same type of offense during his tenure, and was highlighted as a top 10 offensive coordinator in Division I by Yahoo! Sports recently. The major storyline this year for the Red Raiders will be the development of new starter, Seth Doege. Doege has thrown 65 passes in his college career, and will be at the helm of one of the fastest paced offenses in college football, where he'll be expected to throw 500-600 passes. Their early tune-up games will be important to build his confidence. Tuberville did make sure that Texas Tech at least attempted to establish a running game however, and Eric Stephens, who rushed for 668 yards last year as a backup, will take over as primary ball carrier. Texas Tech's spread passing game can create stars, such as Danny Amendola and Michael Crabtree, but there doesn't seem to be a true number one option here, so look for many receivers to contribute this year.
On defense, Texas Tech stole away Chad Glasgow from TCU to be their defensive coordinator, and immediately, he installed his 4-2-5 defense that TCU is famous for. In the pass-happy Big 12, this approach may be a very shrewd one, and could help improve Tech's defense that was abysmal last year. In recent quotes, Tuberville expects a lot of freshmen and young players to contribute this year, so major improvement on defense may have to wait until 2012. They have the foundation in place with the coaching staff, now it's about assembling the talent to place under their control. Tech could be a 7 to 8 win team this year, but I wouldn't expect much more from a team with a lot of question marks.
Missouri Tigers:
The Tigers lose quarterback Blaine Gabbert to the NFL but retain most of their skill players, including WR T.J. Moe and All-American Tight End Michael Egnew, who has a wide receiver skillset. Sophomore James Franklin will play QB this year, and has the confidence of his teammates, but how effective will he be in his first year? He possesses the versatility to allow for the offense to remain largely the same, including designed QB runs and zone reads. Mizzou's greatest strength is that they had the top defense in the Big 12 last year, and return all their linebackers and linemen other than Aldon Smith who declared for the NFL Draft. They'll replace a couple members of the secondary, but the pressure that the front 7 will generate will help the secondary grow throughout the year. They led the Big 12 in sacks last year, and very well may do the same again. Missouri is a dark horse in the Big 12, and all their hopes and dreams really rest on the shoulders of QB James Franklin. If he's effective enough, they'll be Big 12 title contenders. If he struggles through growing pains, they'll be 7-5 or 8-4. I think Franklin can do a fine job at QB given his pedigree and that he has a year in the system, so I expect Mizzou to be a surprise team this season.
Oklahoma Sooners:
The Oklahoma Sooners have been awarded yet another paper championship! As far as Bob Stoops is concerned, he has at least five championships. Who needs a trophy to commemorate them, he has preseason polls! The Sooners are loaded on offense per usual, with a great pocket quarterback that will throw for three billion yards and hundreds of touchdowns. Their WR corps is largely intact from last year as well, returning all their top receivers from last year, including the sensational Ryan Broyles. He's not extremely fast, but he's quick as can be, and had 100+ catches last year. The running game will be the major question after the loss of RB Demarco Murray. They'll go with a RB by committee until somebody stands out, but this probably isn't as big of a concern as many are making it out to be. The offense will run smoothly, even without offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson who left to coach Indiana.
The defense loses a few pieces, and tragically lost LB Austin Box, who died this offseason. LB Travis Lewis, who has first round NFL talent, will miss the first month (at least) after suffering a serious injury as well. Lewis was voted Big 12 Preseason Defensive Player of the Year, so keep an eye on this. DE Ronnell Lewis is also very questionable this season, as he may be ruled academically ineligible. Losing these 3 would hit the defense very hard, and would strip it of 3 of its best returning players. The Sooners also lost DE Austin Beal to the draft, who Ronnell was supposed to replace this year. The Sooners retained most of their defense from last year, so in October, if both Lewis defenders are playing, the prognosis for Oklahoma is very good. Oklahoma will have two new starting safeties this year, but return both top cornerbacks, which should help. If the defense can be above average, Oklahoma has the potential to make the National
Championship. Neither Auburn or Oregon had standout defenses last year, but both thoroughly dominated their schedules thanks to overwhelming offenses. The landscape of college football is changing, and offense has taken precedence over defense. The Sooners have a big showdown in Week 3 with Florida State. If they get through that, the Sooners are true contenders, and may run the gambit undefeated.
Oklahoma State Cowboys:
This is the team carrying on the Big 12 stereotype until the day the conference dies (ETA: 2013): Nothing even resembling a competent defense, but look at that QB throw 50 passes and put up 40 points! Offensive mastermind Dana Holgorsen set up shop in Stillwater last year, and led Oklahoma State to a top 3 offense in the country with a 26 year old quarterback that had never started a game and a sophomore receiver who apparently hid his game-breaking ability in his freshman season. Brandon Weeden is the aforementioned quarterback, and he completed over 100 passes for almost 1,800 yards to Justin Blackmon, the aforementioned receiver. Blackmon won the Biletnikoff last year, and could very well win it again, along with finishing top-5 in Heisman voting. While they lost Holgorsen to West Virginia, the offense should still run smoothly with Weeden at the helms. They may pass even more however due to the graduation of star RB Kendall Hunter. The major question is "Can Okie State be a top-3 offense like they were last year?", because if new offensive coordinator Todd Monken can't lead them to such production, the team may struggle.
The Cowboys lose their two starting DTs as well as their best DE, Ugo Chinasa, and as such, may struggle even more to generate a legitimate pass rush. Their LB crew was largely undecided until this past week, and not for good reasons. Their secondary isn't great either. Mike Gundy is an offensive mind at head coach and spends far more time on that gameplan, so defense falls by the wayside. Additionally, the Cowboys lose Lou Groza award winner (best kicker in the country) Dan Bailey, so they'll be grooming a new kicker as well. There are a lot of question marks here, and there may be too many for me to predict a phenomenal season for the Cowboys as their top-15 ranking in most polls suggests. In the Big 12, they'll finish in the top half undoubtedly, and probably be one of the better teams, but they're realistically a 9-3 or 10-2 type team.
Projected Finish:
1. Oklahoma
2. Texas A&M
3. Missouri
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas
6. Texas Tech
7. Baylor
8. Kansas State
9. Iowa St.
10. Kansas
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