Often the Heisman winner can come out of nowhere, (i.e. Cam Newton last season), but more often than not, they at least have some preseason hype, like all five of our top contenders do. After the jump, their profiles and what to expect.
1. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
2010 Season: 405/617 (65.6% Completions), 4,718 yards, 38 TD, 12 INT, 7.6 YPA
Landry Jones posted a phenomenal season last year, and has all the ability to do it again, especially in a weaker Big 12. He threw for nearly 375 yards per game, and almost 3 touchdowns per game. The Big 12 is known for its wide open offenses, and Oklahoma has shifted more to that approach over the years. The Sooners return nearly every skill position player from last year except for RB Demarco Murray, who to his credit did have 71 receptions. However, Oklahoma always produces great RBs, and Roy Finch, Mossis Madu, and Brennan Clay can pick up the slack as a group. The main factor here is WR Ryan Broyles, who had 131 receptions, 1622 yards and 14 TDs last year, and was the second best receiver in the Big 12 (we'll get to the best one later). As long as Broyles can produce a similar season and the Oklahoma running game stays strong as it always is, Landry should be the leading candidate, especially as the QB for the #1 team in the country.
Oklahoma's schedule certainly is the biggest obstacle that Landry will have to overcome to win the Heisman. Their first three games are against top-25 teams in Tulsa, Florida State, and Missouri. The game at Florida State will be a very good barometer of this team. If they dominate that game, that bodes very well for the Sooners. They do face Texas in Longhorn Stadium and travel to Oklahoma State for their final regular season game, but any Heisman winner must step up in big road games, and Landry certainly has the experience to do so, with two years starting under his belt.
- Bryan
2. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
2010 Season: 112 rushes for 681 yards, 6 TDs, 23 receptions for 266 yards, 4 TDs
At a glance Richardson's stats leave a lot to be desired. Everyone knows that Mark Ingram was the featured back (he carried 158 times last year) and that he has moved on to greener pastures in New Orleans. What you may not have guessed, however, is that Eddie Lacy also had 56 carries. Trent missed two home games against Mississippi State and Georgia State (a 63-7 route that would have easily padded his totals). Now that Trent is the featured back you can expect at least another 100 carries and many more targets out of the backfield. The biggest question will be if he can handle that kind of workload, because he actually had less carries in 2010 than 2009 (112 to 145). However, the uptick in yards per game (53.6 improving to 61.9) and yards per rush (5.2 to 6.1) say that when he is on the field he is a force to be reckoned with.
Alabama's schedule, just as any in the SEC, is filled with stout defenses. After a tune up against Kent State they are traveling up to Happy Valley to take on Penn State in a tough early season showdown (though it should be noted his biggest game of the season came against those very same Nittany Lions: 22 rushes, 144 yards, 4 receptions, 46 yards, and one TD). They have Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, and Tennessee at home but face major road tests against Mississippi State, Florida, and in the Iron Bowl against Auburn. If Alabama is going to win the SEC and possibly play for a national championship it will be decided by Trent Richardson's performance and his health.
- Scott
3. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
2010 Season: 263/372 (70.7 Completion%), 3,338 yards, 32 TDs, 8 INT, 9.0 YPA, 55 rushes for 393 yards and 4 TDs
Luck not being at the top of this list isn't meant to disrespect him, he's pretty clearly the best quarterback in the country. However, the fact remains that Stanford doesn't run a high-tempo offense like Oklahoma, which is visible in the difference between Luck and Landry Jones' pass attempts (Luck had 245 less last year). What's very impressive is that he had a much higher YPA than Landry, rushed for nearly 400 yards, and completed over 70% of his passes in Stanford's run to the BCS. Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL, as was expected, and Stanford's 2010 offensive coordinator takes over as head coach. The offensive approach will likely stay the same, and RB Stepfan Taylor will get his 250-300 carries. Unless the offense turns to more of a no-huddle tempo, Luck Almost all of Luck's top receiving options return, including his top 3 receives, the tight end, and the aforementioned Stepfan Taylor at RB.
Stanford's toughest tests will be mostly in conference. Their only major road tests will be a trek to Arizona in Week 3 in a game that could be a sneaky upset pick, and a game at USC on October 29th. They have Oregon at home this year, in what will be a battle of Pac-12 favorites, and finish off their regular season against Notre Dame on November 26th. If Stanford again makes the BCS, Luck should be in the top 5 of the Heisman race, but if they lose 2 or 3 games and/or don't make the Pac-12 Championship, I wouldn't expect Luck to win it, because only teams in BCS games generally have Heisman winners. The future #1 pick in the NFL has a great chance to win the award as the #1 player in college football.
- Bryan
4. Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina
2010 Season: 249 rushes for 1,164 yards, 17 TDs, 29 receptions for 412 yards, 2 TDs
3. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
2010 Season: 263/372 (70.7 Completion%), 3,338 yards, 32 TDs, 8 INT, 9.0 YPA, 55 rushes for 393 yards and 4 TDs
Luck not being at the top of this list isn't meant to disrespect him, he's pretty clearly the best quarterback in the country. However, the fact remains that Stanford doesn't run a high-tempo offense like Oklahoma, which is visible in the difference between Luck and Landry Jones' pass attempts (Luck had 245 less last year). What's very impressive is that he had a much higher YPA than Landry, rushed for nearly 400 yards, and completed over 70% of his passes in Stanford's run to the BCS. Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL, as was expected, and Stanford's 2010 offensive coordinator takes over as head coach. The offensive approach will likely stay the same, and RB Stepfan Taylor will get his 250-300 carries. Unless the offense turns to more of a no-huddle tempo, Luck Almost all of Luck's top receiving options return, including his top 3 receives, the tight end, and the aforementioned Stepfan Taylor at RB.
Stanford's toughest tests will be mostly in conference. Their only major road tests will be a trek to Arizona in Week 3 in a game that could be a sneaky upset pick, and a game at USC on October 29th. They have Oregon at home this year, in what will be a battle of Pac-12 favorites, and finish off their regular season against Notre Dame on November 26th. If Stanford again makes the BCS, Luck should be in the top 5 of the Heisman race, but if they lose 2 or 3 games and/or don't make the Pac-12 Championship, I wouldn't expect Luck to win it, because only teams in BCS games generally have Heisman winners. The future #1 pick in the NFL has a great chance to win the award as the #1 player in college football.
- Bryan
4. Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina
2010 Season: 249 rushes for 1,164 yards, 17 TDs, 29 receptions for 412 yards, 2 TDs
Lattimore is one of the toughest players to rank. On the one hand there is a very good chance he is going to be the best rusher to come out of the SEC (yes, even over Trent Richardson). On the other, you don't quite know what you are going to get. I remember watching his game against Florida, where he ended up with 212 yards on a whopping 40 rushes, with awe. He also rushed 37 times against Georgia, 29 attempts against Tennessee, and also had 23 touches against both Alabama and Clemson. Even with one missed game against Vanderbilt he was still near the top of the country in rushing attempts. Yet, for some inexplicable reason, he has games where he just doesn't get fed. When you look back at South Carolina's losses he posted low rushing totals (14, 15, 11, and 16, granted South Carolina was playing from behind against Arkansas and Auburn in the SEC title game the entire time).
So you don't really know what you are going to get week in and week out. Like Richardson, he plays in the SEC which means facing some of the best defenses in the country. The earliest indicator of Lattimore's Heisman chances will come on September 10th against Georgia. Even though South Carolina is heavily favored to win the SEC East, the early season showdowns against Georgia are almost always great indicators for both schools. Two weeks after a showdown at home with Auburn the Gamecocks will face a gauntlet: at Mississippi State, at Tennessee, at Arkansas, and hosting Florida. If the Gamecocks can win three of those four games and if Lattimore leads the way he may very well be a Heisman frontrunner.
- Scott
5. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
2010 Season: 111 receptions, 1,782 yards, 20 TDs
Shockingly, Blackmon didn't opt to go to the NFL, where he would have been a top 20 pick after his much-heralded season. Now Dana Holgorsen, the offensive mastermind behind their amazing offense of last year has left for WVU. Luckily, head coach Mike Gundy is an offensive-minded coach, and Holgorsen has been quoted as saying that's almost all he focuses on. Blackmon returns as the top receiver of the Big 12, and helped Oklahoma State make a perfectly flawless transition from losing Dez Bryant at WR after the 2009 season. He also will still catch his passes from 27-year-old senior Brandon Weeden. Weeden took over for Zac Robinson after his departure with Dez Bryant, and responded by throwing for 4,218 yards and 34 touchdowns in his first season starting. The offense was dynamic, scoring 41 points in losses to Oklahoma and Nebraska. Blackmon scored at least one touchdown as well in every game he played (he didn't play against Kansas State). He should be fully expected to replicate his statline of last year if the offensive approach remains the same, which I would have to think it will. However, as a receiver, it will still be very difficult for him to attract enough first-place votes to win the Heisman.
Oklahoma State should have plenty of options to put up points this season, but will they win enough games to keep Blackmon in the Heisman race? They face Arizona on a short week early in the year, which should be a fun game to watch, and like Stanford, is a sneaky upset pick given the Nick Foles to Juron Criner connection at Arizona. They travel to College Station two weeks later to face Texas A&M and Ryan Tannehill and also travel to Texas and Missouri this season. The only major home game they have is against Oklahoma at year's end. If Oklahoma State has double digit wins at that point and beats Oklahoma, Blackmon has a shot at the Heisman.
-Bryan
Dark Horse Heisman Candidates:
Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State
2010 Stats: 273/383 (71.3% completions), 3,845 yards, 35 TD, 6 INT, 10.0 YPA
Boise State was one field goal away from possibly being in the BCS title game last year, but alas, they fell short. Certainly, Kellen Moore's production had nothing to do with that. Kellen stepped up and had a tremendous season for the Broncos, and was in Heisman consideration throughout the year. He started the year as a favorite for the award especially after his comeback drive against Virginia Tech in the season opener. He lost his top two receivers Austin Pettis and Titus Young to the NFL, and that may keep him from winning the Heisman this year. Should Boise State have little trouble replacing them, Kellen will be in the midst of the conversation again, as Boise could go undefeated.
- Bryan
LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
2010 Season: 294 rushes for 1622 yards, 21 TDs, 17 receptions for 210 yards and 3 TDs
James has all the tools to win it, and is in the best-suited system for a RB to win the Heisman. Oregon's up-tempo offense rushed for 250 yards per game last year, and QB Darron Thomas is enough of a rushing threat to keep defenses from keying in on LaMichael James. Unfortunately, the speedy burner at RB will likely lose carries to fellow studs Kenjon Barner and Lache Seastrunk at RB. Oregon has the chance to be just as good as last year, but LaMichael likely won't replicate his statline of last year. Should he manage to do so, he's a top 5 finisher in all likelihood. With an undefeated season by Oregon, he could win the Heisman.
- Bryan
James White/Montee Ball Jr., RBs, Wisconsin
2010 Season (James White): 156 rushes for 1,018 yards, 14 TDs, 11 receptions for 88 yards
2010 Season (Montee Ball Jr.): 163 rushes for 973 yards, 18 TDs, 16 receptions for 131 yards
Wisconsin's stable of RBs last year was extremely enviable. White and Ball combined with John Clay to rush for 506 rushes, 2,987 yards, and 46 TDs. They rushed nearly 40 times per game, and surely will do nearly the same this year, even with transfer QB Russell Wilson taking the snaps. Both runningbacks are great; however, I don't believe that either player will separate themselves enough to emerge as a dominant contender for Heisman at Wisconsin. Wisconsin believes in running with 2 backs, and White and Ball should yet again get nearly split carries. If Ball or White goes down to injury, or one simply plays far better, then a Wisconsin RB should find their way into the top of the Heisman conversation.
- Bryan
Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
2010 Season: 88 receptions for 1,517 yards, 9 TDs
It's always strange to think that two players on the same team can be Heisman candidates, yet here we are. Jeffery was fourth in the country in reception yards with only 88 catches (the guys ahead of him had 119, 111, and 131). It's not crazy to expect the touchdown number to tick up even if the yardage may not. Jeffery's breakout game was in the regular season against eventual national champion Auburn (8 catches, 192 yards, 2 TD) and if the Gamecocks throw more with Stephen Garcia he could surpass Marcus Lattimore on many Heisman lists. It doesn't hurt that when the Gamecocks are down that Garcia forces the ball to Jeffery and that he can bully many of the top corners. As with Lattimore, it will come down to that month long stretch in the middle of the season, and if he outdoes his teammate he could shoot up on this list.
5. Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
2010 Season: 111 receptions, 1,782 yards, 20 TDs
Shockingly, Blackmon didn't opt to go to the NFL, where he would have been a top 20 pick after his much-heralded season. Now Dana Holgorsen, the offensive mastermind behind their amazing offense of last year has left for WVU. Luckily, head coach Mike Gundy is an offensive-minded coach, and Holgorsen has been quoted as saying that's almost all he focuses on. Blackmon returns as the top receiver of the Big 12, and helped Oklahoma State make a perfectly flawless transition from losing Dez Bryant at WR after the 2009 season. He also will still catch his passes from 27-year-old senior Brandon Weeden. Weeden took over for Zac Robinson after his departure with Dez Bryant, and responded by throwing for 4,218 yards and 34 touchdowns in his first season starting. The offense was dynamic, scoring 41 points in losses to Oklahoma and Nebraska. Blackmon scored at least one touchdown as well in every game he played (he didn't play against Kansas State). He should be fully expected to replicate his statline of last year if the offensive approach remains the same, which I would have to think it will. However, as a receiver, it will still be very difficult for him to attract enough first-place votes to win the Heisman.
Oklahoma State should have plenty of options to put up points this season, but will they win enough games to keep Blackmon in the Heisman race? They face Arizona on a short week early in the year, which should be a fun game to watch, and like Stanford, is a sneaky upset pick given the Nick Foles to Juron Criner connection at Arizona. They travel to College Station two weeks later to face Texas A&M and Ryan Tannehill and also travel to Texas and Missouri this season. The only major home game they have is against Oklahoma at year's end. If Oklahoma State has double digit wins at that point and beats Oklahoma, Blackmon has a shot at the Heisman.
-Bryan
Dark Horse Heisman Candidates:
Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State
2010 Stats: 273/383 (71.3% completions), 3,845 yards, 35 TD, 6 INT, 10.0 YPA
Boise State was one field goal away from possibly being in the BCS title game last year, but alas, they fell short. Certainly, Kellen Moore's production had nothing to do with that. Kellen stepped up and had a tremendous season for the Broncos, and was in Heisman consideration throughout the year. He started the year as a favorite for the award especially after his comeback drive against Virginia Tech in the season opener. He lost his top two receivers Austin Pettis and Titus Young to the NFL, and that may keep him from winning the Heisman this year. Should Boise State have little trouble replacing them, Kellen will be in the midst of the conversation again, as Boise could go undefeated.
- Bryan
LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
2010 Season: 294 rushes for 1622 yards, 21 TDs, 17 receptions for 210 yards and 3 TDs
James has all the tools to win it, and is in the best-suited system for a RB to win the Heisman. Oregon's up-tempo offense rushed for 250 yards per game last year, and QB Darron Thomas is enough of a rushing threat to keep defenses from keying in on LaMichael James. Unfortunately, the speedy burner at RB will likely lose carries to fellow studs Kenjon Barner and Lache Seastrunk at RB. Oregon has the chance to be just as good as last year, but LaMichael likely won't replicate his statline of last year. Should he manage to do so, he's a top 5 finisher in all likelihood. With an undefeated season by Oregon, he could win the Heisman.
- Bryan
James White/Montee Ball Jr., RBs, Wisconsin
2010 Season (James White): 156 rushes for 1,018 yards, 14 TDs, 11 receptions for 88 yards
2010 Season (Montee Ball Jr.): 163 rushes for 973 yards, 18 TDs, 16 receptions for 131 yards
Wisconsin's stable of RBs last year was extremely enviable. White and Ball combined with John Clay to rush for 506 rushes, 2,987 yards, and 46 TDs. They rushed nearly 40 times per game, and surely will do nearly the same this year, even with transfer QB Russell Wilson taking the snaps. Both runningbacks are great; however, I don't believe that either player will separate themselves enough to emerge as a dominant contender for Heisman at Wisconsin. Wisconsin believes in running with 2 backs, and White and Ball should yet again get nearly split carries. If Ball or White goes down to injury, or one simply plays far better, then a Wisconsin RB should find their way into the top of the Heisman conversation.
- Bryan
Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
2010 Season: 88 receptions for 1,517 yards, 9 TDs
It's always strange to think that two players on the same team can be Heisman candidates, yet here we are. Jeffery was fourth in the country in reception yards with only 88 catches (the guys ahead of him had 119, 111, and 131). It's not crazy to expect the touchdown number to tick up even if the yardage may not. Jeffery's breakout game was in the regular season against eventual national champion Auburn (8 catches, 192 yards, 2 TD) and if the Gamecocks throw more with Stephen Garcia he could surpass Marcus Lattimore on many Heisman lists. It doesn't hurt that when the Gamecocks are down that Garcia forces the ball to Jeffery and that he can bully many of the top corners. As with Lattimore, it will come down to that month long stretch in the middle of the season, and if he outdoes his teammate he could shoot up on this list.
- Scott
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
2010 Season: 241/372 (64.8% completions), 2,763 yards, 24 TD, 7 INT
I know, this seems outside the box, but Dana Holgorsen is an offensive genius. In 2008 he led Houston to the 2nd best offense in NCAA, they were 1st in 2009, and he led Oklahoma State to 3rd in the country in total offense in 2010. West Virginia's offense is about to be completely revamped, and scary to face. Geno Smith is a very capable quarterback, and in Holgorsen's scheme he could flourish. Geno Smith could easily challenge 3,600 to 4,000 yards this year with 35-40 TDs if Holgorsen can install his scheme quickly enough. He's a true dark horse, and an unlikely candidate, but could still be in Heisman talks at the end of the year regardless.
- Bryan
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
2010 Season: 241/372 (64.8% completions), 2,763 yards, 24 TD, 7 INT
I know, this seems outside the box, but Dana Holgorsen is an offensive genius. In 2008 he led Houston to the 2nd best offense in NCAA, they were 1st in 2009, and he led Oklahoma State to 3rd in the country in total offense in 2010. West Virginia's offense is about to be completely revamped, and scary to face. Geno Smith is a very capable quarterback, and in Holgorsen's scheme he could flourish. Geno Smith could easily challenge 3,600 to 4,000 yards this year with 35-40 TDs if Holgorsen can install his scheme quickly enough. He's a true dark horse, and an unlikely candidate, but could still be in Heisman talks at the end of the year regardless.
- Bryan
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