Debris Caution: AAA 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


So far the Chase has been the Tony Stewart winning extravaganza. After going winless during the "regular season," Smoke has reeled off two straight victories that have propelled him to the top of the Sprint Cup standings. The biggest losers last week were Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman, who both lost five spots in the points. As the series heads to Dover, Delaware it's obvious that some drivers are going to need to play catchup at the Monster Mile.

Seeing as I live in Pennsylvania I get daily commercials for Dover International Speedway. These ads feature drivers talking about how they like the track and the area but the final part shows Tony Stewart's wrecked at the track where he flipped three or so times. So obviously Stewart has some bad memories from the track but right now he's the man to beat. He's won twice at Dover but neither of those are in the past 10 years. His career finish of 12.5 with ten top-5s in 25 starts show that he's a threat to win once again but I don't think he'll pull off a three-peat.

The man only seven points behind Stewart, Kevin Harvick, has struggled at Dover. Harvick has 21 career starts at the Monster Mile and only eight top-10s (two top-5s, zero wins). This is probably the worst track for Harvick that's left on the schedule but if he can salvage a decent finish it may be the biggest boost the #29 team could ask for. Brad Keselowski is third in points, eleven behind Stewart, and once again throw out the stats for this guy. Kes has only three starts, no top-10s, and an average finish of 17.7 (for reference Harvick's is 17.0) but as we have learned the "Blue Deuce" is always one of the best cars on the track. I think that Kes will finish ahead of Harvick and in the end also pass him in the points race, though they're in danger of being leapfrogged by the next two guys.



Carl Edwards has the highest average finish of any active driver at Dover (7.6). He has only won once but ten of his 14 starts have ended with finishes in the top-10 and six of those have been in the top-5. He's only three points behind Keselowski and 14 behind Stewart and I would not be surprised to see him  jump ahead of Harvick and Kes at the end of Sunday's race. Jeff Gordon was the biggest beneficiary last week, jumping six spots in the points race after a fourth place finish in the Sylvania 300. Gordon is now 23 points out of the lead heading into one of his best tracks. Gordon has a 12.2 average finish in 37 career starts but 21 of those were top-10s. He also has four wins though none of those have come in the past ten years. Four of his five DNFs at this track have come in the last 10 years but don't count out the #24. I don't think he'll win but he should continue to climb the points standings after another strong finish this week.

Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are all 26 points behind Stewart and in a three-way tie for sixth. All three couldn't be more different at Dover, either. Rowdy Kyle has two wins in 13 starts, seven top-5s, and an average finish of 13.8. Kenseth also has two wins but in nearly double the amount of starts (25). He has finished in the top-10 sixteen times and eleven of those have gone for top-5s while amassing an average finish of 12.4. Meanwhile, Jr. has struggled mightily at this track. He has 23 career starts but only seven of those have gone for top-10s and an average finish of 17.8. Unfortunately this is a prime spot for Dale Jr. to lose some ground and I have to say that I expect him to slip back to 10th or so in points. Kenseth is a prime candidate to gain a lot of ground this week and I think he'll come out ahead of this group.

Thankfully for Dale Jr. there is one driver in the Chase that has struggled more than him at the Monster Mile. Kurt Busch has 22 career starts at Dover with only seven top-10s and an average finish of 18.7. I would not be surprised at all if Kurt fell to eleventh in points due to the fact he has as many DNFs as Jeff Gordon (five) in 15 less starts. Then there's Jimmie Johnson, who is at his lowest ever seeding in the Chase. Dover could not have come at a better time for the Lowe's team because this is a track he absolutely owns. He has the most wins of any active driver (six) and the second best average finish among active drivers in the sport (9.6). Only six of his 19 starts haven't finished in at least a top-10 and two of those were DNFs. If Jimmie wants to get back in the championship hunt this would be the week to do so and that's why he is also my pick to win this weekend.

Ryan Newman is another driver that is poised to gain some ground. He's third in average finish (10.9) and he has three wins of his own. He has finished in the top-10 in 11 of his 19 starts and I believe he'll bounce back after a disappointing race last week. Don't be surprised if he finishes ahead of his teammate Tony Stewart. Finally, the last driver in the Chase is Denny Hamlin. I know that many fans are begging that someone put Denny out of his misery and there's a good reason for that. He's 66 points behind Tony Stewart and 32 behind Ryan Newman for eleventh. Denny is all but mathematically eliminated this year and it has been a lost season for the FedEx team. It won't get any easier this week because Hamlin's average finish of 20.9 sandwiches him between Marcos Ambrose and Paul Menard and behind drivers like Brian Vickers, Geoffrey Bodine, Ken Schrader, and Steve Park (who is also ahead of Kurt Busch for what it's worth).

It was easy to pick a non-Chase driver this week who could pull the upset. Greg Biffle is fourth in average finish (11.4) and has won twice at this track. He's coming off of a third place finish last week and would have been a much better Chase contender than Hamlin, alas it's too little, too late. Don't be shocked to see the #16 up near the front, mixing with the top guys all day long.