This week the Chase takes us to New Hampshire for the second race in NASCAR's "playoffs." This is a race that can become a launching pad for a championship run or end one's chances dead in their tracks. There is one driver who desperately needs a shot in the arm to stay afloat and that is Denny Hamlin, who is currently 41 points behind Kevin Harvick. Hamlin came in 31st last week and was never really competitive all day. Hamlin is actually one of the best at New Hampshire, though, and his average finish of 7.2 in 11 races puts him at the top for active drivers. He has eight top-10s in only 11 starts and one win, and because of that he must be thanking his lucky stars to see this track on the schedule. Given his season long struggles he's a lot like Tony Stewart last week, it would be an upset to see him win but this may be a statement race for the #11 team as they hope to rebound.
If there's a driver that personifies consistency at New Hampshire, though, it has to be Jimmie Johnson. Last week he had a car capable of winning the race and was near the front all day until he ran out of fuel on the final lap and ended up with a "disappointing" tenth place finish. At NHMS, though, he is second only to Hamlin in average finish (9.6) and has 13 top-10s in 19 career starts. Seven of those were top-5 finishes and three of those were wins. Right now Jimmie is sitting in eighth, 16 points behind Kevin Harvick and this is a track where he can make up a lot of ground. I expect him to be near the front all day and potentially win the race but he isn't my pick to win.
Tony Stewart and teammate Ryan Newman will have the cars to beat this weekend. Stewart couldn't have picked a better time to win his first race of the year (as I said, not a shocker) and these two drivers are fifth and sixth in average finish (Newman is at 12.4 and Stewart at 13.3). Newman is tied with Johnson with the most top-10s in the past ten years (13) and has won three times at the track (tying him with Johnson and another driver we're going to touch on in a second). Stewart, on the other hand, has ten top-10s of his own and has won once, but he leads all active drivers with nine top-10s in the past ten years. This team currently carries the momentum and Newman actually won the race at New Hampshire in June (Stewart came in second). I think that these two, along with Johnson, have the best chances of winning this weekend but I am going to ride the hot hand and go with Tony Stewart to win back-to-back and put himself in the catbird seat for the Chase.
The guy I was mentioning earlier with three wins? That would be none other than Kurt Busch. He is the other drive who has won at this track three times in the past ten years and he is fourth in average finish (11.6). His 11 top-10s in his past 19 races at the track show that he is going to be a strong contender at this track and he could just as easily win once here in NHMS once again. Speaking of contenders, I couldn't skip over my championship pick, Jeff Gordon. Gordon has six top-5s (eight top-10s) in his past 19 races but no wins. His average finish of 11.5 puts him third, behind Hamlin and Johnson and just above Kurt Busch. Gordon needs a solid effort to get back into the thick of things after what happened last week. Keep an eye on the #24, if he wants to win number five then he needs to make a statement.
Taking a look at the other Chase contenders, you'll see all sorts of things. Carl Edwards only has two top-5s (which account for his only top-10s) in 14 starts. Kevin Harvick has won here before and has ten top-10s in 19 starts. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has six top-5s in his past 19 starts but no wins at the track. Matt Kenseth has 11 top-10s for his career at the track but his average finish of 14.4 puts him in a tie with Carl Edwards. Kyle Busch seems to be the epitome of boom-or-bust, he only has 13 career starts at the track but six of them have gone for top-10s (four top-5s and a win) but his average finish of 16.3 is one of the lowest of Chase qualified drivers. Finally, there's Brad Keselowski, who as we've learned you can't count out anywhere and you may as well ignore his career stats. In only four races at New Hampshire he has one top-10s and an average finish of 21.2.
So, of the drivers who are ineligible for the Chase, who has the best shot to pull an upset? Well, Clint Bowyer has won at this track twice and he could be racing for future employment. However, his average finish of 16.2 shows that he'll either win the race or be a total bust. Instead, I'm going to take a bit of a reach and go with Joey Logano, another former winner. Logano has three top-10s in six career starts and an average finish of 17.0 is lowered by the fact that he has one DNF. Hamlin is one of the best at this track and I can't say enough for how important it is for a young driver to learn from a successful teammate. Don't be surprised if he's near the front and has a quiet day while everyone is paying attention to the guys in the Chase.
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