MLB Divisional Series Picks

The playoffs finally are set to begin tonight after the most exciting day in recent sports memory on Wednesday, where the Rays and Cardinals finished their September resurgences while the Braves and Red Sox finished their September collapses.  Only 2 of the 100 experts on ESPN's predictions for this year's World Series can still actually happen according to ESPN's Baseball Today podcast, so that shows what kind of season it was, and why we love the unpredictable game of baseball.  Even if it does make predictions look stupid after the season.  Now I'm going to post my predictions for the Divisional Series matchups as well as some insight on each matchup.

AL Divisional Series:


New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers:

The Yankees posted the best record in the AL and are rewarded by having to face one of the best 1-2 punches in Justin Verlander and Doug Fister of the Tigers.  Do I think Doug Fister is really a #2 starter at this point?  Not really, but he's pitched as the equal of Justin Verlander down the stretch of the season, and has a 2.5 ERA since coming over from the Mariners in the mid-season trade.  Verlander and Fister are the keys to this series though.

The Tigers will be operating with a 4-man rotation while it looks as if the Yankees will go with a 3-man rotation.  We all know C.C. Sabathia can handle pitching on short rest if we remember back to him almost carrying the Brewers to the playoffs singlehandedly and pitching regularly on 2 or 3 days rest.  Ivan Nova will be the #2 pitcher for the Yankees and has pitched admirably this year.  He matches up well with Fister.  The Yankees realize that they have no rotational depth, hence the 3-man rotation, and that may prove to be their biggest advantage over the Tigers.  Jim Leyland has stated publicly that he refuses to pitch Verlander sooner than Game 5 for his second start, even if the Tigers are down 2-1.  In this scenario, Rick Porcello would be facing up against likely Cy Young runner-up C.C. Sabathia for the Tigers' playoff lives.  I think I know who I favor in that matchup.

The Tigers have a strong lineup, with Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila, but they're not as strong as the Yankees' lineup.

My X-factor for this series is the managing.  Jim Leyland, similarly to Tony La Russa, over-manages games and often puts his teams in bad situations as a result.  If Leyland gets too pretty with the lineups and does actually refuse to pitch Verlander in a Game 4, the Tigers could be sitting at home at this time next week.

The Pick:  Verlander must win his first start, and the Tigers need Doug Fister or Max Scherzer to win in matchups that they have the advantage in.  Given that the Tigers have the starting pitching advantage and a good back-end of a bullpen, I'm taking the Tigers in 5, with Verlander closing out the series.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers:


The Rays snuck into the playoffs, but don't sleep on them now that they're in.  Their rotation can compare to anyone's other than the Phillies, and they have such depth that they can have no qualms about using a 4-man rotation.  James Shields and David Price will get votes on most Cy Young ballots, Jeremy Hellickson posted a sub-3 ERA in his rookie season, Jeff Niemann was solid after a hiccup last year, and rookie Matt Moore has dynamite stuff and will be counted on in Game 1 of the ALDS since Shields and Price pitched the final two games of the Rays' season.  The remarkable facet of the Rays' team is the revamped bullpen.  After losing nearly the entire bullpen, the mix-and-match group of seemingly average relievers has become a major strength.  Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta combined to be a great relief group, although the depth is a bit lacking.  Wade Davis will likely be used as a reliever as well, another solid starter.  The Rays' problem is offense.  They lack power and are more of a small-ball team.  7 Rays players had double digit steals this season including speedsters B.J. Upton and Desmond Jennings.

The Rangers are an offensive powerhouse, led by Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and offseason acquisitions Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli.  Napoli and Beltre were welcomed additions and really added to the already impressive Rangers offense.  The Rangers, however, will struggle with pitching.  Game 2 and 3 starters Derek Holland and Colby lewis had 3.95 and 4.40 ERAs this year respectively, although admittedly Holland has improved throughout the season.  Regardless, the Rays have a major starting pitching advantage.  The Rangers may have the edge in the bullpen, with Mike Adams, Neftali Feliz, Darren Oliver, Koji Uehara and Alexi Ogando all ready to go.

The Pick:  This is a classic matchup of pitching against hitting, and should be a fun series.  I'm going to take the Rangers though to come out on top in 5 in a tight series.  Playing in Arlington 3 games may end up being the key factor here as the Rangers perform so well at home.  Rangers in 5.


NL Divisional Series:

St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies:


The Cardinals had a tremendous September and overtook the slumping Braves with a 23-9 record to end the year.  Now they face the buzzsaw that is Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee.  Roy Oswalt also looms in the background if they need him.

The Cardinals managed to have the most quietly productive offense in baseball, as I just found out on Wednesday that the Cardinals led the NL in runs scored.  While Matt Holliday will be unavailable for Game 1 of the NLDS and possibly more games, utilityman Allen Craig has done a tremendous job and has a strong power bat to replace him.  Most of the Cardinals' regulars hit .290 or above, and that's the key advantage they have on the Phillies, whose offense isn't what it was when they won the World Series a few years back.

The Phillies have so much pitching though that it's tough to believe that the Cardinals can win.

The Pick:  In Games 1 and 5, Kyle Lohse faces Roy Halladay.  In Game 2, Edwin Jackson faces off against Cliff Lee.  This is a recipe for disaster for the Cardinals.  Unfortunately they needed Chris Carpenter in game 162, because Carpenter would give them a chance to steal a Halladay win.  I can't see the Cardinals winning this series, but I'll give them one win.  Phillies in 4.


Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers:


The Brewers were largely picked to win the NL Central after acquiring Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke to go along with Yovani Gallardo, and the results are exactly as expected.  The offense is still powerful, led by Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and Nyjer Morgan, but the pitching has been fantastic for the Brewers, and is a major advantage over the Diamondbacks.  The Diamondbacks do have Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson who performed admirably as the #1 and #2 starters this season, but both are predominantly flyball pitchers, and could be exploited in this series.  The Diamondbacks' rotational depth is poor in comparison to the Brewers.

Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, their lineup is also poor in comparison to the Brewers.  Justin Upton, Gerardo Parra and Miguel Montero had great years, but nothing comparing to Ryan Braun's season.  The rest of the lineup is solid yet unspectacular, and against the Brewers' offense and pitching, that's likely not going to be enough.  The Brewers even have the bullpen advantage with K-Rod, John Axford and Takashi Saito waiting to close out every game.

The Pick:  The Diamondbacks are the most overmatched team in the playoffs, and it'd be a true accomplishment if they make the NLCS, because this roster doesn't have any business being in the playoffs.  The Brewers look set to face off against the Phillies and have a pitcher's duel, but first they'll dispose of the Diamondbacks quickly and easily.  Brewers in 3.