Week 5 NCAA Preview and Poll

Week 4 is in the books, and a few teams made real statements.  LSU showed they're not being stopped this year by anyone not named Alabama or Florida, and dominated West Virginia on a national stage.  Alabama dismantled Arkansas on national television and coasted to an easy win.  Oklahoma State made a huge comeback against the Texas A&M Aggies to win a top-10 matchup and establish themselves as the leading competition to Oklahoma in the Big 12.  But now, it's time to look at Week 5 and preview what's in store for this week's slate.  After the jump, my top 25 poll and picks.






Top 25 Poll:


1. LSU
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Boise State
5. Wisconsin
6. Oklahoma State
7. Stanford
8. Oregon
9. Florida
10. South Carolina
11. Clemson
12. Virginia Tech
13. Texas A&M
14. Nebraska
15. Baylor
16. Florida State
17. Georgia Tech
18. Arkansas
19. Texas
20. South Florida
21. West Virginia
22. Michigan
23. TCU
24. Illinois
25. Arizona State

Just missed the cut: Michigan State, Houston, Kansas State, Washington, Mississippi State

Notes:
- I'm definitely lower on Nebraska than most, I don't buy the Nebraska team fully when they're getting shredded on defense and can't pass the ball efficiently.
- Michigan falls into the same boat, even given my love for the Wolverines.  Offensive coordinator Al Borges and Brady Hoke are focused on installing a pro-style offense, but it's not working with the assorted Rich Rod cast of players on offense.  The defense is better, but the offense has regressed because they won't subscribe to the Rich Rod dink-and-dunk offense.  If they do, Michigan has the potential to be a 9 to 10 win team this season in a weak Big Ten.
- I'm not going to give Florida State too big of a hit for losing to Clemson given that I'm very impressed with Clemson, and given that their freshman QB started the game instead of E.J. Manuel.  I may not be high on E.J. Manuel, but his mobility gives them a semblance of a running game, which they sorely lack otherwise.
- I'm pretty high on Georgia Tech in comparison to the AP poll, I really love the "balance" they've found this year.  While they don't throw the ball much, they do it at the exact right times.  QB Tevin Washington is the best passer they've had in quite a while, and WR Stephen Hill is the game-breaking receiver a triple option offense needs.


Game Picks (3-3 record this season):


#3 Alabama (-3.5) @ #12 Florida (Saturday, 8:00 PM, CBS):


Alabama's schedule has gotten progressively tougher, and now they face their sternest test in the Florida Gators who seem to be a mirror of the Crimson Tide's winning formula.  Alabama is 2nd in scoring defense (8.0 PPG), Florida is 4th (9.0 PPG).  Florida is 5th in yards allowed, Alabama is 2nd.  Florida is averaging 259.8 rushing yards per game, Alabama is rushing for 230.8 yards per game.  In the passing game, both teams have 4 TDs and 4 INTs.  This game really sets up to be a defensive showdown and a low-scoring affair in what's probably the game of the week.  Alabama's QB A.J. McCarron faces his biggest test yet as a first-year starter, the formidable Gators defense.  The young QB will likely struggle, meaning that the load of the offense will likely fall on RB Trent Richardson and RB Eddie Lacy.  I think Florida can buckle down and at least hold the running game to a respectable YPC average of 4.5 or so, but will that be enough to beat Alabama?  I'm going to wager that it is.  John Brantley has faced this Alabama defense already, and with Charlie Weis at the helm, the Gators should be able to muster enough offense (read: 20 points) to win this game in a very close matchup.  RBs Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps are versatile and used all over the field, I'd expect each to score a touchdown in this game, and for Florida to pull out a tight one over the Crimson Tide.

The Pick:  Florida 20-16


#7 Wisconsin (-9) vs #8 Nebraska (Saturday, 8:00 PM, ABC):


The potential game of the year in the Big Ten takes place in the first week of Big Ten play.  How do the Cornhuskers get welcomed to the Big Ten?  They travel to Madison for their first conference game ever.  The QBs couldn't be much different as far as their strengths.  Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez is a dynamic runner that was on par with Denard Robinson at some times last year, but just as bad of a passer as well.  Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson is a legitimate Heisman contender at this point as his passing numbers are off the chart, but also has the mobility to make plays on the ground.  Nebraska will finally have all of its playmakers back on defense, with DT Jared Crick, CB Alfonzo Dennard and LB Lavonte David will all play in the same game for the first time this year, which could help fix the sieve that has been Nebraska's defense.  The offense will focus heavily on the run game as Taylor Martinez only completes 50% of his pass attempts this season.  RB Rex Burkhead is the threat in the backfield, and will take some wildcat snaps for the Huskers too.  Wisconsin's defense has looked iffy at times, especially in the opener against UNLV and this is their first real test so their run defense is something to watch.

Wisconsin's offense also revolves around the running game, but Russell Wilson is the 2nd most efficient passer in the nation, so if they have to throw it 30+ times, the Badgers will.  Wilson once set the NCAA record for most consecutive passes without an interception, and only has 1 INT this year to his 11 touchdowns.  WR Nick Toon is Wilson's main weapon on the outside with 5 touchdowns, and stop me if you've heard this before, but Wisconsin has another good tight end in Jacob Pedersen who has 4 TD catches.  The Wisconsin offense does revolve around their power running game though behind a behemoth, country-strong offensive line.  The duo of RBs Montee Ball Jr. and James White is one of the top combos in the country, combining for 657 yards, over 6 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns thus far.  This matchup as you can see will come down to which team can run the ball.  Given that Wisconsin has the threat of passing and Nebraska really doesn't as much, I'm picking the Badgers to take this one at home.

The Pick:  Wisconsin 38-27


#11 Virginia Tech (-7) vs #13 Clemson (Saturday, 6:00 PM, ESPN2):


Clemson coming off their big win over Florida State gets to face the Hokies on the road next, what a gift.  The Clemson offense has been dynamic this year, scoring 35+ points in every game, and has been remarkably consistent in pressure situations.  QB Tajh Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins have both taken their spots on the national scene, as the freshman WR and first-year starter at QB have played remarkably well.  Florida State's defense is probably better than Virginia Tech's, and Clemson carved it up systematically last weekend.  Clemson will put up points, but Virginia Tech's defense led by All-American CB Jayron Hosley will have something to say about that.  On the other side, Virginia Tech's offense is led by QB Logan Thomas, a former tight end, who's been hit-or-miss this season throwing the ball, completing 57% of his passes and throwing 4 TDs with 4 INTs.  The key to the game will be Virginia Tech's running game behind the explosive RB David Wilson, who may have sub 4.3 speed.  Wilson has torched opposing defenses this year and is the heart and soul of the Hokies offense.  WR Danny Coale is the best Hokies playmaker on the outside after WR Jarrett Boykin suffered an injury, and will see plenty of targets in this game.  Can Virginia Tech's offense keep up with Clemson's high-powered offense?  I'm going to say no, and take Clemson to win this game by a very small margin, even though it's in Blacksburg.

The Pick:  Clemson 35-31


#14 Texas A&M (-3) vs #18 Arkansas (Saturday, 12:00 PM, ESPN):


Both teams come off losses to current top 5 teams and need to end their slide promptly to remain BCS hopefuls.  Texas A&M dominated Oklahoma State in the first half 20-3, but QB Ryan Tannehill threw 3 interceptions in the second half while the Cowboys scored 27 straight points to win 30-29 in the end.  The Aggies defense surrendered 484 yards and while they managed 3 sacks, they allowed Brandon Weeden to complete 47 of 60 (that's real, yeah) passes for 438 yards.  The pass defense was horrible, and they won't get much of a break against Arkansas this week.  QB Tyler Wilson had played great until he met the buzzsaw that is the Crimson Tide defense and the Razorbacks have a fantastic trio of WRs in Cobi Mitchell, Joe Adams, and Jarius Wright.  Arkansas' offensive line isn't that great though, as they always struggle to establish any type of a running game, and likely won't do so against the Aggies.  This should be a shootout just like Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M was, and I see Texas A&M coming out on top.  The key to their win though will be their running attack.  RBs Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael both have NFL futures, Ryan Tannehill is a former WR, and Arkansas' defensive line is likely to be without two starters.  The Aggies win in a fun one at Cowboys Stadium on a neutral field.

The Pick:  Texas A&M 37-31


#15 Baylor (-3.5) @ Kansas State (Saturday, 3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN):


On the surface this appears to be another field day for Robert Griffin III and the Baylor Bears offense, but take a closer look and you'll see it's far from that.  Kansas State is allowing a mere 10.3 points per game (7th in the nation) and 246.3 yards per game (6th in the nation).  They did struggle a bit against Miami (FL) last week however, as Miami put up 411 yards and Jacory Harris somehow threw more touchdowns than interceptions.  Regardless, the defense is above average at the least, and will give Baylor some trouble.  It won't be much trouble though, as Baylor's offense is simply too good.  Kansas State's zone-read offense may have some success against a weak Baylor defense, but if Baylor loads up the box to stop RB John Hubert and the mobile QB Collin Klein, it's doubtful Klein will make them pay through the air.  This will be closer than many would think looking on the surface, but Baylor will still win fairly handily.

The Pick:  Baylor 34-27


Ohio State (-3) vs. Michigan State (Saturday, 3:30 PM, ABC/ESPN):


OSU freshman QB Braxton Miller gets his first real test as starter this week when the Buckeyes welcome the Spartans to Columbus.  Unfortunately for him, it may be simply too much to handle.  No team has really put up any significant offense against Michigan State, as even Notre Dame's 31 points were very hard for them to come by.  Braxton ran 17 times last week for 83 yards while only completing 5 of 13 passes for 83 yards to match passing (though 2 of the completions were for touchdowns).  This is Ohio State's final game without WR Devier Posey, OT Mike Adams, and RB Dan Herron, and MSU is going to capitalize.  The Spartans are easily the best offense that OSU has faced thus far.  QB Kirk Cousins can make every throw and is reliable, the RB duo of Edwin Baker and La'Veon Bell is dynamic, and WR B.J. Cunningham is making his presence known on the national scene with 29 receptions and 428 yards through four games.  The Buckeyes lost their only true test against Miami (FL) and are going to lose this game and continue what will turn out to be a very humbling season.

The Pick: Michigan State 27-20


#10 South Carolina (-9.5) vs Auburn (Saturday, 3:30 PM, CBS):


I don't really see this being much of a competitive game, but it's probably one of the bigger matchups on name-basis so I'll preview it.  South Carolina's passing game is extremely questionable, and the defense allows far too many points, but at least limits the yardage allowed while DT Melvin Ingram scores a touchdown on seemingly a weekly basis.  They'll face a test in RB Michael Dyer, WR Emory Blake and the Auburn offense, but not a test they can't handle.  On offense, South Carolina should have an easy go of it, as Auburn may legitimately be the worst defense in Division I.  Marcus Lattimore will absolutely thrash them on the ground, probably to the tune of around 200 yards.  This may be the game that WR Alshon Jeffery and QB Stephen Garcia actually make their presence known and perform well for the first time this season too, as Jeffery has been far too quiet for such a physical freak at wideout.  The Gamecocks win, and handily too.

The Pick: South Carolina 38-24


Georgia (-7) vs Mississippi State (Saturday, 12:00 PM):


Losing this "Bulldog Bowl" could de-rail either team's season as they'd end up 2-3 to start the season and before the rest of their SEC play resumes.  Mississippi State came in with big hopes after going 9-4 last year under Dan Mullen and stifling the productive Michigan offense on New Year's Day last year in a rout.  Chris Relf has continued to improve through his career, and the Bulldogs' rushing offense is always productive, but they face a young, talented offense in the Georgia Bulldogs led by QB Aaron Murray and freshman RB Isaiah Crowell.  Mississippi State is allowing almost 100 more yards per game, but is also allowing the same 23 points per game that Georgia is on defense, so it comes down to the offense.  Mississippi State had the best effort this year on defense against LSU, and for that reason I have more confidence in their defense than Georgia's.  I'm going to opt for the upset here, and take the Mississippi State version of the Bulldogs to win, and for Georgia coach Mark Richt to be squarely on the hotseat.

The Pick: Mississippi State 27-20


BYU (-7.5) vs Utah State (Friday, 8:00 PM, ESPN):  The Friday night matinee pits the underwhelming BYU Cougars up against the Utah State Aggies, with the game being played in Provo to BYU's advantage.  Unfortunately for the Cougars, it sure looks to me as if the on-the-field factors all favor Utah State.  Freshman QB Chuckie Keeton made his appearance on the national scene when he almost led Utah State to an upset of Auburn, and has continued to play well, completing 67% of his passes for 465 yards and 2 TDs through 3 games.  Utah State's rushing offense however is far more productive, totaling 948 yards this season, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and accounting for 15 TDs.  BYU's defense has been passable in 3 of their 4 games, but no defense can continue to win when their offense is this bad.  Former #1 nation-wide recruit Jake Heaps is failing to deliver on the hype in his sophomore season, completing only 56% of his passes, and throwing for 5 INTs to 3 TDs.  Against UCF (who lost to Florida International the week prior), Heaps went 16 of 34 for 133 yards, and the longest BYU drive went 52 yards for a field goal.  UCF outgained the Cougars on offense in that game as well.  The Aggies' defense has been impressive this year, especially the run defense, and BYU is going to have to rely solely on what is an unreliable QB in Jake Heaps.  The Aggies take this one and embarrass BYU in Provo.

The Pick:  Utah State: 35-23