So, Bryan, we meet again. This time we're here to chitchat about our picks for the upcoming NFL season. Let's get some of the gimmes out of the way first, starting with both North divisions. I don't see any way that the Steelers and Packers don't run away with those crowns. Sure, the Ravens are a good team and will push Pittsburgh but I just think that the Steelers are a more complete team. The passing game may be the best it has been under Big Ben and Mike Wallace could be the best receiver in the AFC (at the least he's close to Reggie Wayne and Andre Johnson). Rashard Mendenhall may not have the fantasy buzz of Ray Rice but he's still a top flight running back. I don't think I should bother putting words to their defense, but everyone knows they are really, really good.
Then in the NFC, the Packers are coming off of a Super Bowl victory and they're even better than last year. Granted a lot of that is having an offseason to get Jermichael Finley, Charles Woodson, and Donald Driver, among others, healthy. The Lions seem to be a trendy pick to make the playoffs pending a healthy Matt Stafford but you'd have to be out of your mind to pick them over the Pack. The Bears won the division last year but no one really believes in them. Jay Cutler will get sacked another ten trillion times and Lance Briggs is unhappy about his contract. Again. Then there's the Vikings, who still have Adrian Peterson, but for some reason that entire offensive line has gone to crap. Losing Sidney Rice is huge, but who knows if Donovan McNabb could even get the ball to him at this point in his career.
So what say you? Are you a Colt McCoy follower? Maybe you think the Bengals will be able to correctly dress themselves and win a game or two? You're from Detroit, I'm sure you have something to say about the Lions, too.
On Sun, Sep 4, 2011 at 5:45 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:
Well Scott, I've gotta agree with you on both picks. The AFC North really is a two-team division. I do like some of the foundation the Browns have assembled: QB Colt McCoy, RB Peyton Hillis, WRs Joshua Cribbs and Greg Little (may have the best season of any rookie receiver), LT Joe Thomas and CB Joe Haden. However, that's simply not enough, and they're very lacking on defense. I think the offense will be slightly improved, even if Hillis carries less of the load this year, as I really like Colt McCoy and think he'll build off his rookie campaign now that he has no competition. The Bengals are a joke, and Andy Dalton will be 2011's Captain Checkdown, rarely stretching the field farther than 15 yards. Cedric Benson just got out of jail too, so there's trouble on the horizon there, even though Benson is a pretty average starter at RB. WR AJ Green and TE Jermaine Gresham are supreme talents, but Dalton's gotta be able to get them the ball. The Steelers from top to bottom are arguably the best team in football, they did make the Super Bowl last year for the third time in Ben Roethlisberger's career. They're a defensive stalwart with an amazing linebacking corps and Troy Polamalu roaming in the secondary. And on offense, Roethlisberger routinely throws for 4,000 yards a season. They have great speed in their receiving corps (Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders), as well as solid possession options (Hines Ward and TE Heath Miller). Rashard Mendenhall surely is an underrated back, but the OL pass protection is something to watch with the Steelers, Big Ben got hit a lot last year. The Ravens made nice additions of RB Ricky Williams and WR Lee Evans at little cost to them, and their front 7 is imposing per usual. The secondary loses the underrated Dawan Landry however, and we'll see how Tom Zbikowski fares in his first season starting. Joe Flacco is a good, not great QB that I just can't get behind. Maybe Evans will help the Ravens establish more of a downfield passing game, but in the end it will all rest on the shoulders of Ray Rice. The Ravens will probably take a wildcard spot, but this is the Steelers' division to lose.
The NFC North isn't a competition, the Packers are going to run away with it. Just because the Packers will run away with the division though, it doesn't mean the other 3 teams aren't going to give them a hard time. I could see any of the other three teams winning a wildcard spot or at least seriously challenging for one this year. The Vikings aren't getting much attention, but I think McNabb still has one or two good years left and with Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin there to stretch the field, McNabb (who throws the deep ball better than short passes anyhow) should be able to establish a rapport with both. He'll also throw to his tight ends Visanthe Shiancoe and Kyle Rudolph quite a bit. I honestly see the Vikings finishing second in the division and surprising most prognosticators. The Bears are a team I just can't get behind, they're an ugly team to watch. The combination of a below-average O-Line, largely untalented WR corps and a QB who you can lock in for 20 INTs before the season are a bad combination. The defense will have to carry them per usual if they want to make any noise. The Lions will be a fun team to watch provided Matt Stafford remains healthy. Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson are a great 1-2 combo at receiver, and the Lions have two solid tight ends in Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler. The OL is average (which is great by Lions standards), but there will be little to no running game this year, which is why I can't pick the Lions to make the playoffs. The defensive front 7 is great, but the secondary is a sieve. I don't care how great your pass rush is, if your secondary is poor, good teams will take advantage of them and throw the deep ball with frequency. I think the Lions can finish 8-8 this year and take 3rd place in the division, but I don't see the playoffs in the cards for them.
Now let's move on to the East divisions, where I assume we will both be choosing our favorite teams to win their respective divisions, correct?
On Sun, Sep 4, 2011 at 6:19 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:
Well you know I'm going to pick the Patriots to win the AFC East. I know that everyone will focus on Tom Brady, the offense, and the addition of Chad Ochocinco, but the defense has been what has really impressed me in the preseason. Last year the Pats' defense generated so little pressure that there were times that they blitzed and the announcers wouldn't even call it. I don't expect Albert Haynesworth to go back to his contract year status but I do think that he, along with Shaun Ellis, are a drastic upgrade on the line. Also, it seems like Jerod Mayo will be set loose as we saw against the Bucs (he blitzed three times in the Bucs' first two drives and picked up two sacks in the process). It also doesn't hurt that Brady's two biggest weapons on the offense, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, have a full year under their belts and are two of the top receivers so far (Hernandez actually leads the NFL in receptions).
Sure, the Jets will probably make the playoffs, but I just don't see them ending up with a better overall record. Braylon Edwards to the newly freed Plaxico Burress is a downgrade, LaDainian Tomlinson won't be that good again, and who knows just what they have in Mark Sanchez. Sure, they match up well with the Pats and beat them in the playoffs last year, but I don't think they can win the 12-14 games necessary to take the divisional crown. At last check the Dolphins still have Chad Henne at quarterback and that's a problem. It should be interesting to see what Reggie Bush does now that he is going to get a "starter number of carries" but everyone knows he'll break in the first month. I don't really want to be mean to the Bills but at least they'll be better than the Bengals.
I know that you'll probably have a lot to say about the NFC East, being an Eagles fan, so I'll keep it brief. I think that the Eagles are greatly improved but have some major holes in that linebacking core. It'll be interesting to see how two ballhawking corners play on the same side of the field (Asante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) but I don't see it being too much of a problem. If Michael Vick goes down, which is always a possibility, I think that the Giants and Cowboys are good enough to make a push. The Cowboys should be explosion on offense but who knows if their secondary can keep them from having to be in shootouts every week. Then for the Giants it all comes down to Eli Manning. He may be a bigger enigma at QB right now than Jay Cutler (who can at least blame his lack of weapons/terrible line for his poor decision making).
Sure, the Jets will probably make the playoffs, but I just don't see them ending up with a better overall record. Braylon Edwards to the newly freed Plaxico Burress is a downgrade, LaDainian Tomlinson won't be that good again, and who knows just what they have in Mark Sanchez. Sure, they match up well with the Pats and beat them in the playoffs last year, but I don't think they can win the 12-14 games necessary to take the divisional crown. At last check the Dolphins still have Chad Henne at quarterback and that's a problem. It should be interesting to see what Reggie Bush does now that he is going to get a "starter number of carries" but everyone knows he'll break in the first month. I don't really want to be mean to the Bills but at least they'll be better than the Bengals.
I know that you'll probably have a lot to say about the NFC East, being an Eagles fan, so I'll keep it brief. I think that the Eagles are greatly improved but have some major holes in that linebacking core. It'll be interesting to see how two ballhawking corners play on the same side of the field (Asante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) but I don't see it being too much of a problem. If Michael Vick goes down, which is always a possibility, I think that the Giants and Cowboys are good enough to make a push. The Cowboys should be explosion on offense but who knows if their secondary can keep them from having to be in shootouts every week. Then for the Giants it all comes down to Eli Manning. He may be a bigger enigma at QB right now than Jay Cutler (who can at least blame his lack of weapons/terrible line for his poor decision making).
On Sun, Sep 4, 2011 at 7:06 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:
I agree with you on the Pats in the AFC East, they're the default winner until someone actually unseats them in the regular season. I do like the Jets this year, and I think Santonio Holmes is in line for a HUGE season. But as you mentioned, I don't expect Mark Sanchez to be great, and he's the one hole I see on their team. That hole is enough for me to say they'll take a wildcard, not a divisional title. The Dolphins could finish 8-8 or 9-7 if everything goes right, but I don't see the playoffs in their future. I like adding Bush and Daniel Thomas to get some new blood in there at runningback, and I think they'll play well. Chad Henne, however, is another story altogether, and a disappointing one to me as a Michigan Wolverines fan. Coming out of college I knew Henne had a propensity to overthrow short routes and screens, but he profiled as a typical NFL drop-back pocket passer with a cannon for an arm. Unfortunately Miami's passing game is predicated on short dink-and-dunk passing due to the lack of a downfield option, which is almost the worst possible situation for Henne to be placed in. Part of his disappointing career is on him undoubtedly, but Tony Sparano doesn't get enough heat for completely misusing his quarterback and refusing to build an offense that suits him better. And the Bills are seemingly forever stuck at the level of 4 to 6 wins a year. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fine quarterback, but the offense around him is pretty poor. Steve Johnson isn't a #1, CJ Spiller may be an NFL bust who's unable to run in between the tackles, their O-Line isn't great, and they just lost their best player on defense in Paul Posluszny. The Bills aren't going anywhere any time soon, and should compete with the Bengals for the title of worst team in the AFC.
The Eagles worry me more than most I think, and maybe part of that is being a fan of the team. The offensive line has looked terrible this preseason, and the interior of the line is going to be a major problem. The Eagles brought over Howard Mudd from the Colts to coach up the O-Line, but LG and C are weak, as well as RG if Danny Watkins can't adjust right away as the starter (he played tackle all four years in college). The linebacking corps is abysmal as you shrewdly pointed out, but my biggest worry is the defensive scheme and playcalling. The Eagles' defensive coordinator is their former offensive line coach, Juan Castillo. Unfortunately for me, that isn't a joke, and his last experience coaching defense was 20+ years ago as a linebackers coach at a small college. We went out and went wild in free agency because due to his lack of experience, he needs all the talent on defense he can get. Luckily, the defensive line and secondary are both pretty well set. Safety may be a weakness if Nate Allen isn't healthy, but the cornerback group of Asante Samuel, Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is unparalleled. The Eagles are set at quarterback and the skill positions, and may have signed the best free agent quarterback available in Vince Young, to back up Michael Vick this year in a shrewd move. Vick will miss time, it's not a matter of if but when. This team has enough talent to win the division, but unless Howard Mudd and Juan Castillo work wonders at their respective coaching positions, the Eagles aren't going to win the Super Bowl. The Eagles are my pick to win the division.. but a hesitant one.
The Eagles worry me more than most I think, and maybe part of that is being a fan of the team. The offensive line has looked terrible this preseason, and the interior of the line is going to be a major problem. The Eagles brought over Howard Mudd from the Colts to coach up the O-Line, but LG and C are weak, as well as RG if Danny Watkins can't adjust right away as the starter (he played tackle all four years in college). The linebacking corps is abysmal as you shrewdly pointed out, but my biggest worry is the defensive scheme and playcalling. The Eagles' defensive coordinator is their former offensive line coach, Juan Castillo. Unfortunately for me, that isn't a joke, and his last experience coaching defense was 20+ years ago as a linebackers coach at a small college. We went out and went wild in free agency because due to his lack of experience, he needs all the talent on defense he can get. Luckily, the defensive line and secondary are both pretty well set. Safety may be a weakness if Nate Allen isn't healthy, but the cornerback group of Asante Samuel, Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is unparalleled. The Eagles are set at quarterback and the skill positions, and may have signed the best free agent quarterback available in Vince Young, to back up Michael Vick this year in a shrewd move. Vick will miss time, it's not a matter of if but when. This team has enough talent to win the division, but unless Howard Mudd and Juan Castillo work wonders at their respective coaching positions, the Eagles aren't going to win the Super Bowl. The Eagles are my pick to win the division.. but a hesitant one.
The Cowboys are right there after them, and I think they'll return to the playoffs this year. Tony Romo is now underrated because he missed most of last year and Jon Kitna did an admirable job replacing him. Jason Garrett brought a spark to the team last year and they finished 3-2 under his coaching. The Cowboys' hiring of Rob Ryan has flown under the radar, and he will maintain the 3-4 that Wade Phillips installed, but will also demand more of his players than Wade Phillips ever did. Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten start on offense, and that's one of the best offensive groups in football. I expect a big year from Felix in his first year as the starter too. The defense's weakness is definitely the secondary, as Terence Newman is getting older and less effective, and Orlando Scandrick is not as good as the Cowboys seem to think he is. Gerald Sensabaugh has played a great safety since coming to Dallas though and helps hold up the back end a bit. The front 7 is dangerous, especially with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer crashing in from the edges every snap. I'm putting the Cowboys at a 10-win season this year, and a wildcard spot. The Giants have major issues in the secondary with Aaron Ross and Prince Amukamara both injured. The offense loses Kevin Boss at TE, and a couple offensive linemen that they cut. Eli Manning is a total fantasy football quarterback, he puts up 4,000 yards every year so he's constantly overrated, and no one notices his 20 INTs and awful decision making. It's a shame too, because Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are a great tandem of wide receivers, and Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs a great tandem at runningback. The Redskins are in constant turmoil, and Mike Shanahan is a major reason. He has to put his imprint on the team and did so by benching Donovan McNabb last year, and opting to start John Beck and Rex Grossman this year instead of bringing in a free agent or rookie quarterback to develop. I honestly believe Shanahan will be fired after this season as the Redskins finish 4-12 or 5-11 and find themselves at the top of the draft. Again.
We'll move on to the South now where the NFC has 3 teams that have Super Bowl aspirations, and where the AFC South is made of four teams with serious question marks. This may be the first divisions we disagree on, but who do you have rising to the top of both South divisions?
On Sun, Sep 4, 2011 at 7:39 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:
Well, in the AFC South I just have a hard time picturing anyone but the Colts winning it. Yes, Peyton Manning may be on the downside of his career and that entire team is built around him. The Texans are extremely talented and have been knocking on the door of relevancy and everyone thinks they are the biggest challenger to Indy. Rumors of Indy's demise are greatly exaggerated, though. Last I checked, they are getting back a healthy Dallas Clark and they still have Reggie Wayne. Then on defense there's Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. There's going to come a point that the Colts are going to falter but I just don't think it will be this year.
The Texans should make the playoffs. I say "should" because as we know they are only setting us up for disappointment. Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL and Arian Foster had the best season of any running back last year. Offense wasn't the problem, it was their defense, particularly their secondary, that I bet you and I could throw for four touchdowns on. The Titans are a mess right now, but at least they have Chris Johnson locked up. Now I guess they qualify as an actual football team and they may make a run at .500 with Matt Hasselbeck. The Jaguars have Maurice Jones-Drew and that's about it. After typing all of this out I have to ask: is there any division that boasts so many top flight fantasy players? Geez.
Then in the NFC South, I have the Saints. Sure, the defense will probably have its fair share of struggles but when you have Drew Brees and Sean Payton you're already in every game (unless it's against the Seahawks). Mark Ingram is on the complete opposite of the spectrum as Reggie Bush, but is also an upgrade. Plus, they will have a healthy Pierre Thomas and Jimmy Graham may give Marques Colston a run for his money as the top receiver on the team.
As far as the rest of the division, I already know you're going to rip me apart, but I got to go with the Bucs as a wild card. In fact, I think they may be able to win the NFC Championship Game. Josh Freeman is getting a lot of hype but it's well deserved. In five years he may be the best quarterback in the game not named Aaron Rodgers. You know that LeGarrette Blount is my boy and I am expecting him to post massive numbers while hurdling over about fifty dudes. Mike Williams won't post 11 TDs again, but he'll lead the team in receiving stats. I have a lot of faith in that young defense, especially the line which will have DaQuan Bowers, Adrian Clayborn, and a healthy Gerald McCoy. If Ronde Barber just has a little bit left in the tank, when paired with Aqib Talib they form the best pair of CBs in the division. It's a boom-or-bust pick, but I am in the driver's seat of the bandwagon.
I'm sure you will probably go with the Falcons, and on paper they improved from last year. But there can only be one (well, probably) wild card from the division and I think the Bucs will leapfrog them. As far as the Panthers go, they may be the most interesting team in the division. I'm intrigued to see what Cam Newton does in the NFL and you and I split their RBs in our fantasy league (you went with DeAngelo Williams and I chose Jonathan Stewart a few rounds later). Steve Smith is still there, though I'm sure he's malcontent as ever. Other than that, I fully expect them to be a tire fire. Well, not Jon Beason. He's great.
The Texans should make the playoffs. I say "should" because as we know they are only setting us up for disappointment. Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL and Arian Foster had the best season of any running back last year. Offense wasn't the problem, it was their defense, particularly their secondary, that I bet you and I could throw for four touchdowns on. The Titans are a mess right now, but at least they have Chris Johnson locked up. Now I guess they qualify as an actual football team and they may make a run at .500 with Matt Hasselbeck. The Jaguars have Maurice Jones-Drew and that's about it. After typing all of this out I have to ask: is there any division that boasts so many top flight fantasy players? Geez.
Then in the NFC South, I have the Saints. Sure, the defense will probably have its fair share of struggles but when you have Drew Brees and Sean Payton you're already in every game (unless it's against the Seahawks). Mark Ingram is on the complete opposite of the spectrum as Reggie Bush, but is also an upgrade. Plus, they will have a healthy Pierre Thomas and Jimmy Graham may give Marques Colston a run for his money as the top receiver on the team.
As far as the rest of the division, I already know you're going to rip me apart, but I got to go with the Bucs as a wild card. In fact, I think they may be able to win the NFC Championship Game. Josh Freeman is getting a lot of hype but it's well deserved. In five years he may be the best quarterback in the game not named Aaron Rodgers. You know that LeGarrette Blount is my boy and I am expecting him to post massive numbers while hurdling over about fifty dudes. Mike Williams won't post 11 TDs again, but he'll lead the team in receiving stats. I have a lot of faith in that young defense, especially the line which will have DaQuan Bowers, Adrian Clayborn, and a healthy Gerald McCoy. If Ronde Barber just has a little bit left in the tank, when paired with Aqib Talib they form the best pair of CBs in the division. It's a boom-or-bust pick, but I am in the driver's seat of the bandwagon.
I'm sure you will probably go with the Falcons, and on paper they improved from last year. But there can only be one (well, probably) wild card from the division and I think the Bucs will leapfrog them. As far as the Panthers go, they may be the most interesting team in the division. I'm intrigued to see what Cam Newton does in the NFL and you and I split their RBs in our fantasy league (you went with DeAngelo Williams and I chose Jonathan Stewart a few rounds later). Steve Smith is still there, though I'm sure he's malcontent as ever. Other than that, I fully expect them to be a tire fire. Well, not Jon Beason. He's great.
On Sun, Sep 4, 2011 at 9:40 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:
I have a real tough time with the AFC South, so I'll start with the bottom-feeders. The Titans just don't have much to speak of past RB Chris Johnson and a strong running game. That running game, anchored by their great offensive line, will be the lone bright spot. The Titans don't have much on defense to speak of after losing DE Jason Babin and LB Stephen Tulloch from the front 7. Cortland Finnegan is a good, physical corner, but there isn't anyone on the opposite side to lock down receivers. The Jaguars have David Garrard at quarterback who isn't really a great QB, and Blaine Gabbert is even worse at this early point in his career. Maurice Jones-Drew is a bright spot on offense, as is Marcedes Lewis, but the receivers are far below average. The Texans and Colts are going to be evenly matched this season in my opinion, largely because Peyton has a serious neck injury. If Peyton misses two games, the Colts are going 0-2, and have to go 10-4 to make the playoffs in all likelihood. Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky will not get the job done, and the Texans have a major advantage, facing the Colts in Week 1, when Peyton will either be sitting out the game (unlikely in my opinion) or will need a few series to get back into the groove of football. He may be Peyton, but I still don't think he's immune to gathering a bit of rust after not playing a meaningful down in 8 months. Peyton's obviously the player to watch in this division, as he is the Colts' team and the entire franchise.
But the most important unit as a whole is the Texans defense. They added J.J. Watt in the first round as well as CB Jonathan Joseph and S Danieal Manning in free agency. Kareem Jackson can be a number two corner, but was abused as the Texans' top corner in 2010, which is why signing the former Gamecock Jonathan Joseph was crucial. The linebacking corps is solid, and Mario Williams rushing from a standing position on the edge is tough for any tackle to stop. Teams will likely line up tight ends to Mario's side and make him prove he can work in coverage though in a 3-4, and that's the most important position to watch on Houston. I think Mario's insane athleticism for his size will prove to be enough for him to occasionally drop into zones and be okay. The Texans' offense is the best in the division, and their defense is close to the best now on paper, especially after adding Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator. I'm going to hesitantly select the Texans to win the division. I think the Texans facing the Colts at their weakest in Week One is a major, major advantage, and that this one game will be the difference between the Colts winning the division and the Texans winning it. The Colts win 9, the Texans win 10, and finally fulfill the playoff potential they've had for years.
BREAKING: News just came down that Peyton may need to have a second neck surgery, so I now feel like a genius for picking the Texans :D
But the most important unit as a whole is the Texans defense. They added J.J. Watt in the first round as well as CB Jonathan Joseph and S Danieal Manning in free agency. Kareem Jackson can be a number two corner, but was abused as the Texans' top corner in 2010, which is why signing the former Gamecock Jonathan Joseph was crucial. The linebacking corps is solid, and Mario Williams rushing from a standing position on the edge is tough for any tackle to stop. Teams will likely line up tight ends to Mario's side and make him prove he can work in coverage though in a 3-4, and that's the most important position to watch on Houston. I think Mario's insane athleticism for his size will prove to be enough for him to occasionally drop into zones and be okay. The Texans' offense is the best in the division, and their defense is close to the best now on paper, especially after adding Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator. I'm going to hesitantly select the Texans to win the division. I think the Texans facing the Colts at their weakest in Week One is a major, major advantage, and that this one game will be the difference between the Colts winning the division and the Texans winning it. The Colts win 9, the Texans win 10, and finally fulfill the playoff potential they've had for years.
BREAKING: News just came down that Peyton may need to have a second neck surgery, so I now feel like a genius for picking the Texans :D
The NFC South also presents an interesting competition, but on the other end of the spectrum. There are three legitimate Super Bowl contenders in this division, and I believe you're right, one wildcard will come from this division. The Panthers probably won't be the worst team in the NFL (I'm saving that honor for the Bengals or Bills), but they'll be damn close. Cam Newton is really going to have some growing pains this year, and has looked dreadful for the most part in the preseason. He airmails a ton of throws, but then will hit a couple 30 yard post routes on a frozen rope, and show the hype and promise he carries with him. The Panthers may look like a college offense this year, with the versatility of Cam Newton and the two-headed monster at runningback of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (Mike Goodson is also a really good backup as the 3rd RB). The offensive line is still decent in run-blocking, but look for the passing game to again be the worst in the NFL. The defense has some good pieces in Thomas Davis, Chris Gamble, Jon Beason and Charles Johnson (the latter two who got overpaid like crazy this offseason), but they aren't a top flight defense. I am in fact picking the Falcons to win the division, but because of the defense. They actually have the top tandem of corners, as Brent Grimes graded out as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL last year and made the Pro Bowl, and he's flanked by Dunta Robinson. The defensive and offensive lines are both solid, and the Falcons have solid talent at wideout in Roddy White, Julio Jones and Harry Douglas. Look for the Falcons to go to more of a wide-open passing offense this year and utilize their best weapons. Matt Ryan is a question mark, because his Yards Per Attempt of 6.5 was 26th in the NFL last year. He still has yet to establish himself as elite, and has all the weapons to do so now, this is his make-or-break year in my opinion.
I'm picking the Saints to take the wildcard, thanks to the addition of DTs Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers to help stuff the run and push the pocket. Their D-Line is stout now, and the secondary is underrated and solid as well. The defense will be good enough, and don't even get me started on the offense. Drew Brees is a top flight quarterback, and the second best in the NFC behind Aaron Rodgers. I think Lance Moore was a really important re-signing that went under the radar. Moore and Colston are a great tandem that complement each other well. Moore is the quick, speedy receiver to complement the jump-ball, possession receiver that Colston is. Drafting Mark Ingram in the 1st round should lead to more of a focus on the running game, which should help balance out the Saints more and hopefully cut down on Brees' pass attempts and INTs. The Buccaneers have a good young core, and will put up a solid fight in the division, and probably put up 9 wins again, but I'm not going to pick them for the playoffs this year. I think they're one more year away unfortunately, and I'm going to slate them at 3rd place in the NFC South.
I'm picking the Saints to take the wildcard, thanks to the addition of DTs Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers to help stuff the run and push the pocket. Their D-Line is stout now, and the secondary is underrated and solid as well. The defense will be good enough, and don't even get me started on the offense. Drew Brees is a top flight quarterback, and the second best in the NFC behind Aaron Rodgers. I think Lance Moore was a really important re-signing that went under the radar. Moore and Colston are a great tandem that complement each other well. Moore is the quick, speedy receiver to complement the jump-ball, possession receiver that Colston is. Drafting Mark Ingram in the 1st round should lead to more of a focus on the running game, which should help balance out the Saints more and hopefully cut down on Brees' pass attempts and INTs. The Buccaneers have a good young core, and will put up a solid fight in the division, and probably put up 9 wins again, but I'm not going to pick them for the playoffs this year. I think they're one more year away unfortunately, and I'm going to slate them at 3rd place in the NFC South.
Lastly we get to the West divisions, both of which are probably the worst in their respective conferences. That doesn't mean that they can't make noise though, as the Cardinals made the Super Bowl in 2008 and the Seahawks shocked the Saints last year in the playoffs. Who are you selecting as the winners?
On Sun, Sep 4, 2011 at 10:02 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:
Yeah I feel like a dolt for going with the Colts if Manning ends up missing significant time. If that's the case I'll ride and die with you on the Texan-wagon.
As far as the AFC West, I think the Chargers are the team to beat. Vincent Jackson is there for the whole year and their offense still has Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates. Sure, the defense is a bit of a liability, but it should be middle of the road and that's all they will need. The Chiefs won the division last year but I don't see them doing so again this year. When you look and see that the AFC West is playing the AFC East and NFC North, who do you think stands a better chance against teams like the Packers, Patriots, and Jets? Jamaal Charles is amazing and that defense is going to continue trending up, but Matt Cassel is already injured and Dwayne Bowe is going to be quadruple covered after the season ending injury to Tony Moeaki. The Raiders still exist and are plenty fast, but I don't know if that translates into a division winner. Then again, they swept the AFC West last year, but that was with Nnamdi. I won't even bother with the disasterpiece that is the Denver Broncos, because most of their season will be sent with Tim Tebow questions. I feel horrible for Kyle Orton, he deserves a lot better.
So I'll wrap up with the NFC West. I was going to go with a "NFC Worst" pun but I don't want to beat a dead horse. Like I did in my NASCAR preview, I'm going to flip a coin. Heads, I'll pick the Cardinals, tails and it'll be the Rams.
Tails it is. So I guess this is where I talk up Sam Bradford again. The offense is greatly improved and I fully expect Bradford to make that next step. The Cardinals could win a fair share of games by default of having Larry Fitzgerald and an actual quarterback throwing to him. Kevin Kolb probably wasn't worth DRC and a second rounder, but at least he's not John Skelton or Derek Anderson. The 49ers could be good but I'm tired of waiting on Alex Smith. That offense has Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree (who may never live up to his hype), and now Braylon Edwards and it will still be average to below-average because of Smith. If they had gotten Kolb I would probably have picked them to win the division. I haven't even touched on last year's divisional winner, the Seattle Seahawks, but can you say with a straight face that they'll repeat? Russell Okung is hurt already and they now have Tavaris Jackson at QB. Sidney Rice is a great addition but he'll post terrible numbers and be the epicenter of a lost of fantasy football angst.
So to recap, here are my divisional and wild card picks:
AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
AFC South: Houston Texans*
Wild Card #1: Baltimore Ravens
Wild Card #2: New York Jets
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC West: St. Louis Rams
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
Wild Card #1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wild Card #2: Dallas Cowboys
*Pending the Peyton Manning situation.
As far as the AFC West, I think the Chargers are the team to beat. Vincent Jackson is there for the whole year and their offense still has Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates. Sure, the defense is a bit of a liability, but it should be middle of the road and that's all they will need. The Chiefs won the division last year but I don't see them doing so again this year. When you look and see that the AFC West is playing the AFC East and NFC North, who do you think stands a better chance against teams like the Packers, Patriots, and Jets? Jamaal Charles is amazing and that defense is going to continue trending up, but Matt Cassel is already injured and Dwayne Bowe is going to be quadruple covered after the season ending injury to Tony Moeaki. The Raiders still exist and are plenty fast, but I don't know if that translates into a division winner. Then again, they swept the AFC West last year, but that was with Nnamdi. I won't even bother with the disasterpiece that is the Denver Broncos, because most of their season will be sent with Tim Tebow questions. I feel horrible for Kyle Orton, he deserves a lot better.
So I'll wrap up with the NFC West. I was going to go with a "NFC Worst" pun but I don't want to beat a dead horse. Like I did in my NASCAR preview, I'm going to flip a coin. Heads, I'll pick the Cardinals, tails and it'll be the Rams.
Tails it is. So I guess this is where I talk up Sam Bradford again. The offense is greatly improved and I fully expect Bradford to make that next step. The Cardinals could win a fair share of games by default of having Larry Fitzgerald and an actual quarterback throwing to him. Kevin Kolb probably wasn't worth DRC and a second rounder, but at least he's not John Skelton or Derek Anderson. The 49ers could be good but I'm tired of waiting on Alex Smith. That offense has Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree (who may never live up to his hype), and now Braylon Edwards and it will still be average to below-average because of Smith. If they had gotten Kolb I would probably have picked them to win the division. I haven't even touched on last year's divisional winner, the Seattle Seahawks, but can you say with a straight face that they'll repeat? Russell Okung is hurt already and they now have Tavaris Jackson at QB. Sidney Rice is a great addition but he'll post terrible numbers and be the epicenter of a lost of fantasy football angst.
So to recap, here are my divisional and wild card picks:
AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
AFC South: Houston Texans*
Wild Card #1: Baltimore Ravens
Wild Card #2: New York Jets
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC West: St. Louis Rams
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
Wild Card #1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wild Card #2: Dallas Cowboys
*Pending the Peyton Manning situation.
Super Bowl Prediction: New England Patriots over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (go big or go home)
On Mon, Sep 5, 2011 at 11:35 AM, Bryan McWethy wrote:
In the AFC West, I'm going to pick the Chargers as well. They had the #1 offense and #1 defense last year.. and still missed the playoffs. That's a very Chargers thing to do, as we know they're prone to slip-ups and chokejobs early in the year. Hopefully for their sake they can actually start the year well for once and not have to play catch up. One interesting note from last year, the Raiders were 6-0 against the AFC West despite only finishing 8-8. The Raiders play a solid style of ball, but without Zach Miller, Nnamdi Asomugha and Tom Cable, I'm going to say they finish in 3rd in the division. I like what the Chiefs have on defense now, the secondary with Eric Berry, Brandon Flowers, and Brandon Carr is very underrated, and very solid. The linebacking corps is also great if Justin Houston proves to be a good complement at OLB to Tamba Hali on the other side. On offense the Chiefs made two nice additions in first-round pick WR Jonathan Baldwin and WR Steve Breaston, who Todd Haley is familiar with from his time in Arizona. Bowe, Breaston and Baldwin are all very different receivers that pose different challenges to a defense. The Chiefs should come close to winning the division. But the Chargers have enough talent with QB Philip Rivers, WR Vincent Jackson, TE Antonio Gates, and a studly offensive line (well, the left side at least) that they'll take this division. Oh yeah, and the Broncos are a joke of an organization right now. They have no idea what they're doing. Figured I should mention them in passing.
As far as the NFC West, I'm going to say it's the Cardinals that win the division. There are too many question marks on the Seahawks to go with them. Their secondary is awful, and their quarterback situation is quite possibly the worst in the NFL with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst the only feasible starting options. They have talent at WR and TE in Sidney Rice, Mike Williams, and Zach Miller, but the offensive line doesn't generate much push for a consistent running game or to protect their quarterback. I want to pick the 49ers, but their secondary is pretty awful, even with the addition of Carlos Rogers, and Alex Smith is consistently one of the lowest-graded quarterbacks in the NFL. The Rams are interesting, as their defense is probably the best in the division. The Quentin Mikell signing was one of the best signings of the entire offseason and Ronald Bartell is a solid cornerback. The defensive line is underrated, and Chris Long graded out as a top 5 defensive end on Pro Football Focus last year. I'm not so bullish on the offense though. The wide receiver group is a grab bag of average players, besides Danny Amendola in the slot. The entire offensive line was awful in the running game last year, and Stephen Jackson couldn't do much as a result. The Cardinals offense should be far improved from last year when Max Hall and John Skelton ran the show. Kevin Kolb isn't a star, but he'll get the job done, and has a great chemistry with Kevin Kolb already. I like their DL a lot, and I like the front 7 as a whole as well. The secondary may be questionable after Greg Toler went down to an injury and Patrick Peterson was elevated to the #1 corner, and Adrian Wilson will play through a torn biceps. Maybe it's more of a hunch on my part, but I'm going with the Cardinals here, and I'll say that I don't expect any team in this division to finish over .500. I think the Cardinals win it at 8-8 and the Rams finish 7-9 once again. This is the most wide open division though in the NFL, and not for a good reason.
As far as the NFC West, I'm going to say it's the Cardinals that win the division. There are too many question marks on the Seahawks to go with them. Their secondary is awful, and their quarterback situation is quite possibly the worst in the NFL with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst the only feasible starting options. They have talent at WR and TE in Sidney Rice, Mike Williams, and Zach Miller, but the offensive line doesn't generate much push for a consistent running game or to protect their quarterback. I want to pick the 49ers, but their secondary is pretty awful, even with the addition of Carlos Rogers, and Alex Smith is consistently one of the lowest-graded quarterbacks in the NFL. The Rams are interesting, as their defense is probably the best in the division. The Quentin Mikell signing was one of the best signings of the entire offseason and Ronald Bartell is a solid cornerback. The defensive line is underrated, and Chris Long graded out as a top 5 defensive end on Pro Football Focus last year. I'm not so bullish on the offense though. The wide receiver group is a grab bag of average players, besides Danny Amendola in the slot. The entire offensive line was awful in the running game last year, and Stephen Jackson couldn't do much as a result. The Cardinals offense should be far improved from last year when Max Hall and John Skelton ran the show. Kevin Kolb isn't a star, but he'll get the job done, and has a great chemistry with Kevin Kolb already. I like their DL a lot, and I like the front 7 as a whole as well. The secondary may be questionable after Greg Toler went down to an injury and Patrick Peterson was elevated to the #1 corner, and Adrian Wilson will play through a torn biceps. Maybe it's more of a hunch on my part, but I'm going with the Cardinals here, and I'll say that I don't expect any team in this division to finish over .500. I think the Cardinals win it at 8-8 and the Rams finish 7-9 once again. This is the most wide open division though in the NFL, and not for a good reason.
My picks are as follows:
AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC West: San Diego Chargers
AFC South: Houston Texans
Wild Card #1: Baltimore Ravens
Wild Card #2: New York Jets
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC West: Arizona Cardinals
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
Wild Card #1: New Orleans Saints
Wild Card #2: Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl Prediction: Green Bay Packers over New England Patriots
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