Super Bowl XLVI: The Blue Meanie

The roads that the New England Patriots and the New York Giants took to get here couldn't be any more different. The Pats were favored by the majority to come out of the AFC East while the Giants were, at best, though to come in as a wild card. It took the stars aligning for the G-Men (the Philadelphia Eagles deciding not deciding to start their season until December 11, the Dallas Cowboys losing games for no other reason than they are the Dallas Cowboys) but they still earned their way to the big stage. They held the Atlanta Falcons to two points and then followed it up by beating the NFC's top two seeds on the road (Green Bay and San Francisco). The Pats were the number one seed in the AFC and their road featured Tim Tebow and the Baltimore Ravens. Needless to say, the degree of difficulty wasn't quite as high.

These two teams met in November, a tilt that went New York's favor 24-20. It was the last game that the Pats lost but it was in the worst way imaginable. Not only did Tom Brady bring the Patriots back in the fourth quarter with less than two minutes left on the clock, but the Giants were without both Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw. Even with that, Eli Manning managed to lead yet another comeback against the Pats by hitting Jake Ballard for a game winning touchdown.

By now everyone knows that the Patriots pass defense is all sorts of awful. Having Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington on Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks is just asking for trouble. The Patriots defense is the worst to make the Super Bowl (411.1 YPG), they have allowed the most 20-yard plays in the league this year (89), and the pass rush mostly consists of Vince Wilfork and Rob Ninkovich. When you throw all of things together you have a matchup that the Giants should feast upon as Eli Manning is playing the best football of his career.

Let's not look past the Giants' own defensive woes. Even though they have a fearsome defensive line they are the second worst Super Bowl defense (376.4 YPG) and rank among the league's worst in defending against tight ends (948 yards surrendered). Surprisingly enough, the Giants also had a negative point differential and their weighted DVOA was sixteenth. The Giants can generate enough of a pass rush with Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Jason Pierre-Paul but if they don't get home that points towards the Pats' favor. Deon Grant is not a guy you want covering Aaron Hernandez in the open field and who knows who can cover Rob Gronkowski (if he proves to be mostly healthy).

I don't think I need to dwell on the passing offenses for either of these teams. In three games Eli Manning has over 900 yards and he has an 8/1 TD/INT ratio. The Giants' line hasn't been that great, though, surrendering eight sacks. Tom Brady, on the other hand, has an un-Bradylike 6/3 TD/INT ratio. He has only been sacked once (against a Ravens D that ranked third in the league and the Broncos who were eleventh themselves) and also has 602 yards in only two games. The Pats were tied for second in the league with INTs (23 on the year) and the Giants had only three less themselves. What all of this tells me, in a nutshell, is that both of these QBs need to play mistake free because what these defensives lack they make up for in jumping routes and getting timely takeaways.

Nicks, Cruz, and Mario Manningham will get theirs. Nicks is averaging over 117 yards per game in the postseason and has four touchdowns. Cruz has yet to find pay dirt but he has 244 yards and 14 first downs. Manningham, who is seemingly the forgotten man, has three scores of his own with only eight receptions. Cruz is the obvious deep threat but when things get inside the 20s it seems that Eli tends to look towards Manningham. New England, as you can probably imagine, relies heavily on Gronkowski and Hernandez. Of Brady's 602 yards, these two have 353 of them and four touchdowns. Gronk is also the only pay to be in double digits on first downs (14). Of course, that was when he was healthy and before the human Patriots destroyer, Bernard Pollard, got ahold of him. Both TEs have formations where they come out of the backfield and Hernandez even rushes the ball (eight carries, 70 yards). I've gone this entire blog post without mentioning Wes Welker. In this year's earlier matchup Welker had 9 catches for 136 yards. Welker could be poised to be the biggest beneficiary, of both yards and extra attention from the Giants, of Rob Gronkowski's possible limitations. No other wide receiver on the New England depth chart can keep defenders honest except for Deion Branch one or two plays a game.

If I told you that one of these teams comes in with the league's worst rushing attack, you'd probably guess the Patriots. Or if you've been paying attention to the media's coverage, you'd know that the Giants reside in the cellar. At 89.2 Y/G, the Giants make the Pats' 110.3 look as though they have Barry Sanders in the backfield. Sure, a lot of that has to do with Ahmad Bradshaw being banged up during the season and now that he's healthy he and Brandon Jacobs are combining for 109 Y/G in the postseason. Bradshaw is also third on the team in receptions (14) and averages close to 32 yards through the air. On the flip side, New England has a bit of trouble rushing the ball. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has less than 50 yards per game. Aaron Hernandez's longest rush (43) equals Danny Woodhead's total for the playoffs. Stevan Ridley hasn't been healthy, but when he's been in he's been ineffective. If New England can't establish the run in some capacity then they're going to be in a lot of trouble.

The special teams matchups are a wash. Lawrence Tynes and Stephen Gostkowski are two of the best in the business. Tynes has missed two field goals while Gostkowski has been perfect. Steve Weatherford has averaged 46.4 yards per punt while Zoltan Mesko is at 43.8. Neither team had a kickoff return touchdown at all this year but Julian Edelman did return a punt for a score against Kansas City.

This was the most appealing matchup left in the playoffs if you enjoy offense. New England and New York are both physical teams that can rack up the yards and points at will. New York has an edge in defense, of course, but neither one excels in their matchup against the opposing offense. I'll admit I have a smidgen of bias here, but I will go with my preseason pick and pick the Patriots to overcome their blue demons. The whole game may come down to Rob Gronkowski's health and that is the most important thing to monitor heading up to the big game.

As an aside, be sure to check out this year's Puppy Bowl. They have a Piggy Pep Squad!