Will the Marlins Flounder or Swim with the Big Fish?

$209,275,719 and $210,000,000.

The first number represents the Marlins' total payroll for the 2006-2011 seasons.  The other number is the total of contracts handed to free agents Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell this offseason, along with the $19 million remaining on Carlos Zambrano's contract (Zambrano also has a $19.25 million player option he'll undoubtedly exercise in 2013).  Additionally, the team is heavily favored to sign Cuban free agent Yoenis Cespedes, the outfielder with a 20-minute "highlight" tape on Youtube, and whose performance in MLB is near impossible to project.  His services will likely cost in the $50-60 million range, for a completely unquantifiable entity.  Formerly the Marlins acted as a major league prospect farm, shipping off players like Josh Beckett, Miguel Cabrera and other stars before they saw big paydays; the new-look Marlins are showing a commitment to win and spend the necessary money to do it.

The $210 million committed to four players this offseason represents a seismic shift in the Marlins' team construction philosophy.  To accompany the organization's new stadium, uniforms and name, the Miami Marlins have signed or acquired what they believe are four players that can put them into the annual playoff picture and help them contend for the World Series.

The problem is, the Marlins finished 28th of 30 MLB teams in attendance per game this season(19,007 average attendance), and as recently as 2009, were only receiving about $16 million in television and radio revenues (Deadspin produced the Marlins' 2009 financial documents).  How are the Marlins supposed to afford to pay their players now?

The projected 2012 payroll by my estimation will be in the range of $95 million (give or take about $5 million depending on arbitration decisions).  This 2012 season will represent the highest single-season payroll in the history of the Marlins' organization and the ability to pay it off is largely dependent on the success of their stadium in drawing new fans.  The $515 million stadium is largely being financed by the city of Miami, which helps, but the Marlins are still responsible for $165 million of the stadium themselves.  They will rent the stadium and will finally be able to receive revenue for the luxury seating and advertising throughout the stadium.  That new revenue will help quite a bit, and the Marlins should still qualify for revenue sharing, receiving even more by 2016.  The new revenue-sharing formula will not depend on payroll, it will depend on the team's market size, meaning the Marlins are in line to continue receiving revenue sharing, and could receive even more over the years than usual.  The Marlins' bottom line will ultimately depend on the fan support (or lack thereof) they receive after their efforts this offseason and their performance on the field in their new state-of-the-art stadium. 

The entire Miami area seems to be building teams similarly these days.  While the Dolphins haven't raided free agency in quite the same way, the Heat, Marlins, and Florida Panthers (NHL) are simply raiding free agency, signing big contracts and forgoing the development of players for a win-now mentality.  For the Heat, it was always going to pan out.  The acquisition of two of the game's top 5 players (Lebron James and Dwyane Wade) along with a top 20 player Chris Bosh meant that the Heat had become perennial title contenders overnight.  The Panthers' flurry of offseason signings (7 on the first day of NHL free agency, along with 3 players acquired through trade) got them above the newly established salary cap floor and has them in competition for a playoff spot for the first time since 2000.  The Marlins' approach?  While it seems to be similar, the results are yet to be seen.
The following is what we can likely expect for the Marlins' 2012 lineup:

SS Jose Reyes
2B Omar Infante
3B Hanley Ramirez
RF Mike Stanton
1B Gaby Sanchez
LF Logan Morrison
CF Emilio Bonifacio
C John Buck

The lineup is solid, with Reyes and Infante both capable of hitting over .300 at the top of the order.  If Hanley realizes the potential he once showed, this lineup could be scary.  Mike Stanton is bound to hit 35+ HRs annually for the next decade, thus this blog has affectionately named the Marlins' new HR celebration in center field the "Mike Stanton Machine".  Gaby Sanchez is a very consistent, solid hitter who could push 90 or 100 RBIs this season hitting a lot of gap shots with Jose, Hanley and Mike Stanton ahead of him. Emilio Bonifacio hit over .300 last year and provides positional versatility along with great speed on the basepaths to act as a tablesetter for Logan Morrison and John Buck. Morrison and Buck provide patience at the plate and decent power as well to round things out, which is hard to come by when looking at the typical 7th and 8th hole hitters in National League lineups. 

If Hanley hits like an All Star, this offense may be one of the best in the National League, and a very young one at that.  Since Hanley Ramirez is the biggest piece to the offensive puzzle, I decided to take a closer look at his 2011 and try to determine the reason for his struggles.

The past 2 seasons, Hanley Ramirez has been hitting the ball into the ground for some reason.  Whether it's a changed plate approach or something else, over 50% of Hanley's batted balls are grounders now.  As we saw last season when he was benched for lack of effort, Hanley plays when he feels like it.  If he ran out every groundball this wouldn't be as concerning, and maybe the leadership of Ozzie Guillen helps rein in the unpredictable effort of Hanley on a day-to-day basis.  But regardless, hitting line drives and fly balls are more conducive to raising a player's batting average.  His tendency to hit so many ground balls kept his BABIP at a career-low .275 (his career average is .339).  As a player with plus power and plus speed, Ramirez should be expected to post a BABIP over .300 every season, as his speed will help him leg out some hits that a player like Adam Dunn or Albert Pujols may not.  The BABIP seems to have dropped markedly due to his average on grounders that he hits.  In 2010, Ramirez had a .290 batting average on ground balls that he hit, while in 2011 that plummeted to .219.  Additionally, in 2010 Ramirez had a .280 batting average on fly balls, while in 2011 that dropped to an abysmal .189 batting average.  I would expect Ramirez to produce at least a .260 average and an .800 to .850 OPS, which is still quite valuable at 3B.   

Hanley also missed quite a bit of time last year due to a nagging back injury, only playing in 92 games.  Hopefully the injury isn't a recurring one, and I'd assume it's not likely to be a problem going forward after a full offseason to recover.  When he played it didn't seem to limit his baserunning or stealing ability, as he attempted a steal about once every 3 games, which is about on par with his career average.  In a full season, Hanley will attempt 45-50 steals and should convert 30-35 of them at least.  While he's a completely average base-stealer, his speed still remains a valuable asset on the basepaths.  His mobility should, in theory, help him be an above-average fielder, but to this point in his career, he's been either average or below average at shortstop in every season.  Moving to an easier position in 3rd base should allow Hanley to become an above average fielder for the first time in his career, provided that he puts in the effort and is happy at his new position. 

The rotation is likely to be the downfall of the team unfortunately, as it's riddled with question marks (aside from Mark Buehrle):

SP Josh Johnson
SP Mark Buehrle
SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Anibal Sanchez
SP Ricky Nolasco

Josh Johnson is an ace.. when he's on the mound.  The guy just can't stop getting injured unfortunately, and his health may be what the success of this team hinges on.  Mark Buehrle is pretty consistent, and I'd expect an ERA around 3.5, which accounts for a drop in ERA due to his arrival in the National League.  The lefty will throw 200 innings and make every start this year, as he's proven he can do over the past 11 years and provides the consistency that Josh Johnson doesn't. 

Carlos Zambrano is on the decline, and may not provide the production of a #3 starter that the Marlins truly need.  For the first time in his career, Carlos Zambrano's fastball was below average according to Fangraphs' linear pitch weights metric, and he threw it merely 53% of the time on the mound, the lowest rate of his career.  Zambrano doesn't have the strikeout stuff that was his trademark throughout his career, so he's now shifted to an approach of pitching to contact, as evidenced by his career high 90.9% contact rate against on strikes thrown.  That was one of the highest figures in the league, and when combined with his career low 42% ground ball rate, it resulted in his worst MLB season.  Zambrano is only 30, but with so many MLB innings logged on his arm, it may be a sign of him wearing down over time.  He suddenly doubled his HR/FB rate from the past 3 seasons, jumping from 5.6% to 11.3%, and even admitted to quitting on his team, which resulted in a suspension from the team.  The Cubs were eager to dump him, but Zambrano's production may be looking up.  The Miami ballpark is more pitcher-friendly and Zambrano is buddies with Ozzie Guillen as both are from Venezuela, so that connection may convince Zambrano to fully exert himself on the mound this year.  I'd look for Zambrano to rebound to a 4.00 ERA, but for his WHIP to remain high and for him to remain pretty mediocre. 

As for the remainder of the rotation, Ricky Nolasco posts strong strikeout and walk rates on an annual basis, but still can't get his ERA below 4.50 no matter what he tries.  He even posted a low home run rate at .87 HR/9, but his WHIP rose to 1.40.  Nolasco gets hit around consistently, as he's only once allowed less than one hit per inning, and last year allowed 244 hits in his 206 innings.  As a #5 starter, he's okay, but he surely doesn't help fix the Marlins' rotational woes.  Anibal Sanchez is actually pretty underrated as he's posted a 3.55 ERA and 3.67 ERA over the past two seasons along with FIPs of 3.32 and 3.35 respectively.  Anibal Sanchez may actually be the #3 starter entering the season, and a healthy top 3 of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and Anibal Sanchez would allow the Marlins to compete for the NL East title or at least a wildcard spot.  The Mets are pretty terrible, so we can write them off now.  The Braves and Phillies both have great staffs, but the Braves have injury problems throughout their rotation (Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson) and the Phillies complement their rotation with a below average offense to open the season, as Ryan Howard will miss the first 2 months.  The Nationals' rotation with Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann appears quite formidable, but the offense leaves something to be desired, with only two above-average hitters last year in Ryan Zimmerman and Mike Morse.  If Jayson Werth rebounds, the offense could improve quite a bit, but there's no guarantee that will happen. 

Last but not least, the Marlins have a solid bullpen that now is headed by free agent acquisition Heath Bell at closer.  Bell, Edward Mujica, Steve Cishek, and Randy Choate all posted ERAs under 3 in 2011 and lefty Mike Dunn posted a 3.43 ERA.  Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez) also returns to the Marlins on a $6 million deal, which helps solidifiy the bullpen even further.  The bullpen goes six or seven deep and has enough left-handers to allow Ozzie to mix-and-match against intimidating left-handed hitters in late-inning situations.    The bullpen is far from a weakness, and may actually be the most complete aspect of the team, which bodes well if the offense produces and starting rotation is above average.\

The Marlins, surprisingly, look like they have a balanced set-up to compete for the NL East division in 2012.  The addition of major free agents for their everyday lineup (Jose Reyes), their starting rotation (Mark Buehrle) and their bullpen (Heath Bell) seem to have given them a needed boost across the board to compete in the National League East.  I'm not going to go quite as far as to predict they'll win it this season, but they seem to be the most balanced of the contenders in the NL East, which counts for something.  They'll at least be serious contenders for the wild-card round and should win one wild-card spot if Bud Selig introduces the two wild-card format this season.