7/29/11

Call to the Bullpen: For Whom the Bell Tolls

Call to the Bullpen is a regular feature that goes through every bullpen in baseball, and tells you, the fantasy players, which relievers are worth speculative or immediate adds to your team.  Saves are invaluable in fantasy baseball, and this column will be on top of every closer situation.

AL East:
Yankees: Mariano Rivera. Next.

Red Sox: Jonathan Papelbon.  Again, nothing to see here.

Rays: Currently, Kyle Farnsworth is the closer and has been dominant with a 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 41.2 innings.  His control problems have disappeared, and he's turned to a cut fastball more (as a lot of closers are now).  If Farnsworth is traded, Joel Peralta is the likely heir to the throne at closer.  He's posted a 3.83 ERA this year, good but not great, and that'll be enough as the alternative, Jake McGee, is a bit young.  While Joe Maddon did insert his rookie David Price into the closer spot on their World Series run, McGee at closer won't help them win the division because they're too far out.  Peralta's revived his career over the past couple years, and if he inherits the closing job, should do a decent job for you too.

Blue Jays: Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco continue to share the closer role, and it's tough to read which has the lead.  Their peripherals are about even, but Rauch's ERA is a run lower, and he got the call on July 27th, the most recent save opportunity for the Jays, so I'd say he's the best bet here.  Jason Frasor is gone so he won't inherit the role any time soon, and I doubt new reliever Trever Miller gets in on the closer by committee they have going in Toronto.  These are closers you really don't WANT to own because they're so bad, but those in need of saves, keep a close eye on the team, and hope one of the two takes a lead.

Orioles: Kevin Gregg is the closer, Koji Uehara is the setup man, and both could be gone within the next two days.  Gregg's 3.76 ERA is tolerable at the closer spot for a bad team, and he could do decent set-up work elsewhere for a contender.  Uehara has had a phenomenal year with a 1.76 ERA and 60 Ks in only 45+ innings.  He's been the main piece on the block for the Orioles, and has a $4 million option for 2012, so contenders are interested.  The likely scenario is that Gregg stays and Uehara goes, in which case, stick with the goggled closer.  If Gregg is traded and Uehara isn't, Koji's your man.  If BOTH are traded, Jim Johnson will likely inherit the closer role by default, as his 2.55 ERA is second best in the Orioles' pen behind Uehara.  Be wary though, he's blown 4 of his 5 save opportunities so far this year, and isn't a strikeout pitcher (about 6 K/9).

AL Central
White Sox: Sergio Santos has this locked down pretty well.  Jason Frasor may become next in line if Santos blows up suddenly after the White Sox recently acquired him.

Twins: Joe Nathan has saves in his last five appearances, so he's the guy here.  Matt Capps is the set-up man and would take over closing again should Nathan re-injure himself or falter.

Indians: Chris Perez has 22 saves and 2 blown saves, no signs of him falling apart, he's still the closer.

Tigers: Jose Valverde is the unquestioned closer.

Royals: Joakim Soria is the unquestioned closer after a rough patch early in the year, but is also whispered about in trade rumors again, an annual occurrence.  The Royals' pen has actually been pretty solid this year, in large part thanks to rookie Aaron Crow, who'll likely be in the rotation next year.  Crow has a 1.8 ERA and nearly 9 K/9, so he's got the stuff closers are made of.  Should Soria be traded, look to Crow to take over.

AL West
Rangers: This situation's dicy now, as Neftali Feliz is being questioned if he's giving his all by Rangers management.  The Rangers are heavily in on Heath Bell, and if they got him, Bell may just take over the closing spot from Feliz.  It'd be tough to say, as Neftali Feliz was their closer on their World Series run, but Bell is definitely the more savvy veteran.  I think Feliz should stick at closer personally, but we'll see what happens.  If Bell doesn't go to Arlington, and Feliz is removed from the closer role, look for Darren Oliver to take over by default.  The 40-year-old veteran is remarkably consistent and has actually improved on his past two seasons by posting a 2.23 ERA this year.  It's unlikely that Ron Washington turns to Oliver to close over Feliz, as Feliz seems to have ironed things out with the skipper, but stranger things have happened, keep an eye on this situation. 

Mariners: Brandon League isn't going anywhere according to Jack Zduriencik, so no changes pending here.

Athletics: It's Andrew Bailey's spot to lose, and he's not going to.  Move along.

Angels: Jordan Walden has blown seven saves, but curiously is still the closer.  His 2.91 ERA is probably saving him here, and the fact that he barely ever gives up runs unless he's blowing a save (meaning most of his runs allowed are in only 7 games).  Scott Downs would probably be the guy to watch as the closer should Walden be removed, but Fernando Rodney is back now as well.  I don't think Scioscia wants to try the Fernando Rodney experiment again at closer, so expect Downs to be the set-up man and next-in-line at closer the rest of the year.

NL East
Mets: Jason Isringhausen has 4 saves in 5 appearances since the trade of K-Rod to the Brewers.  It's pretty clear he's the closer unless he gets dealt (the rumored team is his former long-time home as closer, the St. Louis Cardinals).  Isringhausen's been oddly solid, so he seems like a safe bet.  There's a small chance he's available in a decent amount of leagues still, so go grab him if you can.  If he's dealt, Bobby Parnell will likely take over as he's got the best stuff of anyone in the bullpen. 

Braves: It's Craig Kimbrel, unquestioned, even though Jonny Venters has been quite possibly the best reliever in baseball this year. 

Nationals: Drew Storen has lived up to the hype and has done a phenomenal job in his first year as closer.  There were rumors that the Nationals wanted to trade him for CF Denard Span of the Twins, but those were pretty silly rumors, as Span isn't worth trading a young stud like Storen for.  Unless the Nationals make an awful move, nothing to see here.  If Storen IS traded, I would expect Tyler Clippard to take over as closer, given his 1.7 ERA, and Sean Burnett's struggles to keep his ERA below 5.

Marlins: Leo Nunez is a hot name on the trade market, and the Phillies are supposedly very interested.  Nunez has been a solid closer this year with 29 saves and a 3.4 ERA.  If he's traded though, he should divebomb, as he's a wholly different pitcher on the road vs. at home (Career: 3.66 Home ERA, 4.96 Road ERA; 2011 Home ERA: 2.63, 2011 Away ERA: 4.18).  If you own him and he goes to Philly, it could be a dicey situation.  Should he leave, Edward Mujica is the next-in-line, who they acquired from the Padres last year in a deal for Cameron Maybin (Side note: It's absolutely amazing how the Padres keep churning out bullpen arms, trade them away, and don't miss a beat in their bullpen, ever.)  Ken Rosenthal seems to think it's unlikely Nunez is dealt, but I still think Mujica is a strong speculative add, on the chance Nunez does get dealt.  Once Mujica's the closer you won't be able to get him, so press the add button now.

Phillies: As I spoke about with the Marlins, Nunez may in fact come to Philly in a trade.  Should he come to Philly, I think he's in for a rude awakening as I alluded to in the above section, but he may not even take over as closer.  Antonio Bastardo has been phenomenal, Ryan Madson has been great, and Brad Lidge is back, although I don't see him playing into the closing situation much if at all.  I'd expect Bastardo and Madson to continue handling save opportunities and Nunez to fortify the Phillies pen. 

NL Central
Cubs: Carlos Marmol per usual has been a wild pitcher and has lost the faith of manager Mike Quade, who seems to favor lefty Sean Marshall.  Marshall got the ball in the 9th the last two save opportunities for the Cubs, so he's either in a committee with Marmol, or he's the full-out closer.  Either way, he should be owned in almost all formats.  Many teams have inquired about Marshall's availability in a trade, but the Cubs have balked at such a notion, since Marshall is under contract to them in 2012 as well.

Cardinals: This situation could get interesting.  Fernando Salas is the current closer and seems to have finally gotten his act together as closer, with his ERA down to 2.57, but the Cardinals just acquired three more relievers, and could go in on the Heath Bell sweepstakes.  Additionally, Kyle McClellan, who closed a bit last year, was moved back to the bullpen from the rotation, and could also see saves.  McClellan will likely become the next-in-line however, as the set-up man, and Salas should keep the closing job.

Astros: Mark Melancon has been solid of late, and has a firm grasp on the closer role.  Wilton Lopez is there waiting to close out games if Melancon implodes at some point.

Pirates: Joel Hanrahan is phenomenal, no chance he loses his spot.

Reds: Cordero hit a rough spot leading up to the All-Star Break, but has converted his last few chances since, so he'll be closer through this year more than likely.  I don't see Chapman getting the closer role, but he's probably next up after Cordero.

Brewers: John Axford continues to get the ball in the ninth over K-Rod and it'll stay that way.  Axford has saves in his last 7 appearances, as the Brewers are on a hot streak, and he won't lose his job this year more than likely. K-Rod is a good source of Ks, but unlikely to get to close unless Axford is injured.

NL West
Dodgers: Javy Guerra is unchallenged for the closer role and has yet to blow a save.  No danger here.

Giants: It's Brian Wilson, and will be for the rest of the year.

Diamondbacks: J.J. Putz returned and got the ball in the ninth at the first save opportunity, so he's obviously been vaulted back to closer.  David Hernandez did a solid job but Kirk Gibson seems to be unappreciative.  David Hernandez remains the back-up option to Putz, who just isn't what he was in Seattle a few years back.

Rockies: Huston Street is the unquestioned closer when healthy, Matt Lindstrom is the set-up man and backup option for when Street goes down to an injury inevitably.  Lindstrom's blown 3 saves this year though, so he's an iffy backup option.  Not worth holding, as he won't get enough leftover saves from Street to justify it.

Padres: Saved the best for last, as the Heath Bell and Mike Adams trade talks are probably the most prevalent, now that Beltran is a Giant.  Bell came out and said he'd sign an extension to stay in San Diego at a discount, so the Padres probably didn't expect that.  Mike Adams is their preferred option, but every team in baseball prefers him as well.  Either way, it's very possible that both end up as closers by Sunday night.  If Bell leaves, Adams is definitely the closer, and may still be available in your leagues, so add him now as a speculative move.  At worst, he provides great ERA help every week and 5-6 Ks (I start him on my team as a RP myself, and have for months). 

The Heath Bell sweepstakes is down to the Rangers and Cardinals, but given how much relief help the Cardinals have gotten (3 relievers through Toronto, and a 4th by moving Kyle McClellan back to the bullpen), I don't see him going anywhere but the Rangers.  If he does go to the Rangers, it's tough to say if he'd close or not as I spoke to in the Rangers section.  I'd venture a guess that he gets the closer role because he's the veteran and most managers lean that way, but Feliz was the closer for the World Series run last year, so either is possible.  Either way, expect Heath Bell to be traded by Sunday night.

Besides those two, basically every other Padres reliever is available, because they can't go wrong when they call up relievers, they all develop into studs.  Luke Gregerson and Chad Qualls highlight that group, but I don't see either of them getting moved.  Gregerson would take over the role as closer should Adams and Bell both get traded. 

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