With the trade deadline a week away, teams are really examining the value of going out and acquiring a player against the value one of their prospects could provide if called up to the MLB team. For example, the Braves in 2007 decided that acquiring Mark Teixiera was worth surrendering most of their farm, because they thought they could make a run, and could re-sign him. That return package for Texas included the likes of:
- Neftali Feliz: 2010 AL Rookie of the Year, current Rangers closer
- Elvis Andrus: 2010 All-Star, current Rangers shortstop
- Matt Harrison: Arguably the Rangers' 2nd best starting pitcher behind C.J. Wilson, Harrison is currently posting a 3.04 ERA in 2011.
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Currently hitting for a .780 OPS as the Red Sox starting catcher.
This is every team's worst fear that makes a big trade deadline move. Many of the contenders have an in-house option they could consider in their minor leagues, in the form of a prized prospect. Today I'll specifically focus on prospects that could have major impacts down the stretch with their teams, and what we should realistically expect from a production standpoint. I'll also talk about a couple top prospects, who while not with contending organizations, should make their mark on MLB before 2011's end.
The top prospect likely to get a call-up this year is 3B Brett Lawrie (Blue Jays). The 21-year-old third baseman is a phenomenal player, and will be a mainstay in the Blue Jays' lineup for the next 7 years.
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| Lawrie's interesting batting cage attire even makes him LOOK like a professional hitter. |
The former first round pick is playing his first year in the Blue Jays system, as he was traded by the Brewers in exchange for SP Shaun Marcum. Lawrie would be manning the hot corner for the Blue Jays already if he hadn't broken his hand in early June. He's on the comeback trail, and is already back to mashing in AAA.
Lawrie is hitting .348/.414/.664 (1.080 OPS!) in AAA this year, so I'll go out on a limb and say he could probably help the Blue Jays a bit on offense. The Blue Jays don't feel rushed at all to call him up however, as they're 10 games back of the wildcard in the AL, and his defense isn't quite the best yet (He was brought up as a 2B in Milwaukee). He's been back in AAA for about a week and Jose Bautista was moved back to third base to allow young outfielders Travis Snider and Eric Thames more playing time. Next year, I have no doubt he'll be the full-time 3B starter in Toronto, making for what should be a very solid offense. This year, I'd expect him to get the call-up within a week or two tops, so be on the watch.
Fantasy Outlook: Even in 12-team mixed leagues, Lawrie should be a useful commodity, especially for those of you holding on to lost causes like Mike Moustakas and Casey McGehee (guilty as charged). He's got legitimate 20 HR and 30 SB potential down the road, so keeper owners should be chomping at the bit to snatch him up. As for this year, expect the following, and hope for more:
Projection: 150 AB, .260/.320/.450, 18 R, 6 HRs, 20 RBI, 8 SB
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SP Julio Teheran and SP Mike Minor (Atlanta Braves) are arguably the Braves' top two pitching prospects, and both are lighting up the minor leagues. Teheran has already appeared in the major leagues but quickly found himself back in AAA afterwards. Project Prospect analyst Steve Carter seems to know why:
"I'm salivating at that -- LOVED seeing pitchers tip. Just eliminated two pitches. Teheran has nasty stuff without a doubt, but there is a definite difference between his fastball and changeup deliveries. This is something to keep an eye on as he moves up and faces more advanced and experienced hitters."Teheran's got a great fastball and a loopy curveball that will fool hitters, but has yet to truly develop above average control of his curve and changeup. He's dominating AAA with a 1.68 ERA in over 100 innings, and has only walked 28 so his repertoire is baffling AAA hitter. Teheran only has 2 games of major league experience under his belt so he's sure to improve. As for Mike Minor, he's logged 6 starts in the majors this year and enjoyed varied success. Minor's 4.59 ERA was pretty mediocre, but his 2.78 FIP and 3.79 xFIP tell a different story. The lefty has a low 90s fastball, a far above-average changeup (his best pitch), and a slider and curveball that still need a bit of work. His changeup was his only better than average pitch thus far in the majors, but it was a good one. Minor needs to develop a third pitch to truly become a #2 or #3 starter. If the curve or slider comes along, he's a prospect to watch.
Fantasy Outlook: Mike Minor may be a Met within a week if the Braves do pull the trigger on trading him for Carlos Beltran. If they do, they're likely worried that he doesn't possess the arsenal to be more than a back-of-the-rotation guy. He still could provide help for teams in deeper leagues as a stream option against favorable matchups, but he doesn't jump out as a keeper-quality player yet. If he stays with the Braves, it's tough to say who gets the call first between him and Teheran. If Derek Lowe leaves, I think Minor would enter the rotation first. I could see Teheran coming in for September as an extra bullpen arm, a la Aroldis Chapman last year. He doesn't have the 100 MPH fastball, but his mid 90's fastball and 12-6 curve should be enough to fool hitters for an inning at a time. Keeper league owners should be all over Teheran for next year, but yearly league owners, he won't be much help for your fantasy team. Even if he does provide Ks in relief, it's tough to say he's dependable as a RP option this year. Look for both to be in the majors in 2012 if Beltran becomes a Brave.
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SP Alex White (Indians)
The Indians weren't even supposed to contend this year, and were looking to the futures of their young prospects, such as White, to lead them into the 2012 season and onward as contenders in the AL Central. Alex White had other plans and blazed through the minors, all the way to Cleveland's roster in April to replace Carlos Carrasco during a DL stint. White was the Indians' #1 pick in 2009 and by 2011 was in AAA. In 2010, he posted a 2.86 ERA in A-ball, bumped that up to a 2.28 ERA in AA ball in a larger sample size of 100 innings, and this year had a 1.9 ERA in Columbus (AAA) before getting the call to the big leagues. Baseball America likes his pitch arsenal, and believes it still has room to grow:
“White’s velocity fluctuated throughout his first pro season, but he generally sat at 87-92 mph with his two-seam fastball and topped out at 95 mph. His two-seamer has plus sink and he throws it for strikes. When White gets to a two-strike count, he uses his plus splitter to put away both lefties and righties. His main point of emphasis in 2010 was his slider, which showed promise in high school and early in his college career.”If not for an injury, White would have been in the Indians' rotation for this whole season, and Carmona may be back in AAA. Manny Acta has already told the press that Alex White will be returning to the bullpen when he comes back, and he can make a serious impact there. The Indians' pen is already very strong, but White should play a part in their run at the division. He'll be back within a week or two, he just threw a 40 pitch bullpen recently and was throwing splitters and sliders, so he's close.
Fantasy Outlook: Alex White isn't going to be the closer, or set-up man. He's not going to be able to build up his endurance enough to be a reliable starter this year again, but in dynasty and deep keeper leagues, White is definitely worth a look. His short time in MLB was very productive, pitching six innings in both of his first starts. Yearly leagues should let White fall by the wayside and jot him down as a 2012 sleeper.
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OF Colin Cowgill and 1B Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks)
Colin Cowgill isn't a well-known prospect, but he's beginning to get his props as a solid prospect. Cowgill's hitting .354/.430/.554 in AAA and has 13 HRs and 30 steals to go along with his very solid line. The 25-year-old, diminuitive (5'9" tall) outfielder has a solid walk-rate and doesn't strike out much. He's spent one full year at each stop in the minor leagues, so he's done his time, and he's improved each year. The speedy outfielder has only been caught stealing 3 times, and has the range to make the Diamondbacks' outfield one of the most athletic in MLB with himself, Chris Young and Justin Upton. In the future, he probably has the upside of a .280/.360/.450 leadoff hitter which would be phenomenal, but that's if everything goes right.
Paul Goldschmidt couldn't be more different, as a 6'3" 245 lb. behemoth at first base. The country-strong first baseman is going to work on AA pitchers, hitting .305/.425/.627 (1.052 OPS!) with 29 HRs this year as well. Goldschmidt's right-handed, and absolutely has destroyed left-handers. He has 14 HRs in 93 ABs against them this year, continuing a trend from last year when he hit 15 in 136 ABs against lefties. At the least, it looks like he has potential to be a great platooner at 1B for Arizona this year against lefties. Juan Miranda and Russell Branyan aren't exactly lighting the world on fire, and Arizona has talked about acquiring Carlos Pena, who has a very similar profile to Goldschmidt. Rather than surrender a prospect and $4 million for Carlos Pena, it may be more prudent to give Goldschmidt a true shot in the majors for the last two months at 1B. If the Diamondbacks are smart, look for him to be manning first base at Chase Field sooner rather than later. Goldschmidt isn't a sure thing, but it's worth taking a shot at catching lightning in a bottle.
Fantasy Outlook: Cowgill got the call up to MLB today to replace Geoff Blum who is injured. If you have an extra roster spot and need steals, Cowgill's one of the best options out there. Gerardo Parra hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been great in LF, so it's tough to see if Cowgill will really get much playing time. If you can hold him for a week and see how much he'll get the chance to play, go get him immediately. He's a solid prospect that should steal 25-30 bases a year in the majors at least. He could provide the needed boost for your fantasy team down the stretch in runs and steals, but he could just as easily be sent down in another 15 days. Keeper league owners, I wouldn't call him keeper-worthy unless you keep quite a few players in your league. I'm in a 14-team league where I keep ten players a year, and I wouldn't consider Cowgill unless he absolutely lights the world on fire. Steals guys are easy to find on draft day, even in keeper leagues. Jot him down as someone to watch for your 2012 draft.
Paul Goldschmidt should be an everyday starter at 1B IF he gets the call up. Unfortunately, that's a big if since he's in AA ball still. If he comes up, I would expect his average to be low, around .230 or so, but to be a serious power threat near the bottom of the Diamondbacks lineup. Given enough at bats, he could hit 10 HRs for your fantasy team over the final two months, quite valuable at this point to find for free on the waiver wire. If he gets PT the last two months and shows power and a decent average, he has keeper potential in deep leagues, as 40 HR power doesn't just grow on trees. Realistically, Goldschmidt should be in AAA by now, but since he isn't he's a little tougher to project, so I'm conservative with my projections of him. He could be Wily Mo Pena 2.0, or he could be the answer at 1B. I'm going somewhere in the middle.
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Jacob Turner
The Tigers top prospect is in AA ball currently, and their rotation is horribly inconsistent to say the least. After Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are unpredictable, Brad Penny is okay but nothing special, and the fifth spot is an audition for every Toledo Mud Hen pitcher after Phil Coke was so bad he got pulled from the spot. Meanwhile, Turner continues to toil away in AA ball, untouched. Is he ready for MLB though? His performance has actually declined each month of this year so far:
April: 26.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, .97 WHIP, 24:4 K:BB ratio
May: 33.2 IP, 2.67 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 28:10 K:BB ratio
June: 33.1 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 25:11 K:BB ratio
July: 20 IP, 5.4 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 13:7 K:BB ratio
He's actually generating quite a bit of ground balls as well, similarly to Porcello in the minors. However, Turner is also striking out batters at a much higher rate than Porcello and wasn't changed as a pitcher like Porcello was. Rick got called up from Single-A ball after one season. Turner probably is just as useful as the AAA fodder that the Tigers are running out to the mound every fifth day trying to find a Phil Coke replacement. But is he worth bringing up to pitch and is it worth rushing his development? Given the Tigers' track record of rushing pitchers to the majors, they'd be better served leaving him to develop as he's still raw. Turner's 3.48 ERA in AA isn't exactly impressive yet, so he SHOULD stay in the minors.
The Tigers are actively searching for a starter, but if they somehow strike out in doing so, Turner likely will get his shot at the bigtime. Just the same, there's potential that Turner could get traded for a high-level pitcher like a James Shields or Ubaldo Jimenez, especially given Mike Ilitch's comments today alluding to the fact that he doesn't have many years left as owner, and wants to win now.
Fantasy Outlook: If Turner's called up this year, I can't say I'd advise starting him in any situation besides if he's facing a bottom feeder of an offense. He's simply too raw right now to be in MLB. In mid-2012, Turner could become a factor at the back of the Tigers rotation (or, given the Tigers' M.O., it could be to open 2012), in which case, keeper leagues should take notice. Realistically, he shouldn't be in the majors until 2013, but should he get called up in 2012, people in deep keeper leagues should take notice of the #11 prospect in all of baseball. There aren't many better prospects to save your waivers for next year than Turner.
The Tigers top prospect is in AA ball currently, and their rotation is horribly inconsistent to say the least. After Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are unpredictable, Brad Penny is okay but nothing special, and the fifth spot is an audition for every Toledo Mud Hen pitcher after Phil Coke was so bad he got pulled from the spot. Meanwhile, Turner continues to toil away in AA ball, untouched. Is he ready for MLB though? His performance has actually declined each month of this year so far:
April: 26.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, .97 WHIP, 24:4 K:BB ratio
May: 33.2 IP, 2.67 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 28:10 K:BB ratio
June: 33.1 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 25:11 K:BB ratio
July: 20 IP, 5.4 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 13:7 K:BB ratio
He's actually generating quite a bit of ground balls as well, similarly to Porcello in the minors. However, Turner is also striking out batters at a much higher rate than Porcello and wasn't changed as a pitcher like Porcello was. Rick got called up from Single-A ball after one season. Turner probably is just as useful as the AAA fodder that the Tigers are running out to the mound every fifth day trying to find a Phil Coke replacement. But is he worth bringing up to pitch and is it worth rushing his development? Given the Tigers' track record of rushing pitchers to the majors, they'd be better served leaving him to develop as he's still raw. Turner's 3.48 ERA in AA isn't exactly impressive yet, so he SHOULD stay in the minors.
The Tigers are actively searching for a starter, but if they somehow strike out in doing so, Turner likely will get his shot at the bigtime. Just the same, there's potential that Turner could get traded for a high-level pitcher like a James Shields or Ubaldo Jimenez, especially given Mike Ilitch's comments today alluding to the fact that he doesn't have many years left as owner, and wants to win now.
Fantasy Outlook: If Turner's called up this year, I can't say I'd advise starting him in any situation besides if he's facing a bottom feeder of an offense. He's simply too raw right now to be in MLB. In mid-2012, Turner could become a factor at the back of the Tigers rotation (or, given the Tigers' M.O., it could be to open 2012), in which case, keeper leagues should take notice. Realistically, he shouldn't be in the majors until 2013, but should he get called up in 2012, people in deep keeper leagues should take notice of the #11 prospect in all of baseball. There aren't many better prospects to save your waivers for next year than Turner.
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