7/25/11

MLB Trade Deadline - Hitters

Scott has already spoken to the availability of franchise cornerstones like Derek Lowe and Jeremy Guthrie in the last post, so I won't delve further into discussing pitchers. Instead, I'll focus on the hitting that's available, and the top hitters seem to be more readily available than top pitching like Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields. As always, quite a bit of outfield help is available, and the top outfielders available are definitely top-flight options that most teams would like to add.

Ranging from household names like Carlos Beltran and BJ Upton to mediocre but consistent players like Ryan Ludwick and Chris Iannetta, every team has something to like in the buyers market that is the 2011 trade deadline.

After the jump, I'll go into detail about the pros and cons of each available player.




Carlos Beltran is the top hitter available, and as you'd expect, half of MLB is trying to get him. Beltran's dominance in a contract year (sound familiar?) has made him the most appealing trade piece on the market, hitter or pitcher. The switch-hitting Beltran's .910 OPS is the ninth highest in the NL, and he's played almost every game this year, meaning he's finally back to full strength. He's in line for a huge contract in 2012, but that's irrelevant to teams this year, who seek to acquire him for a playoff run. He has given the Mets a list of seven NL teams he's interested in, and has publicly spoken on being interested in playing for the Red Sox or Rangers, as long as he isn't the DH. His full no-trade-clause gives him all the power here, and he'll be going to a contender if anywhere. He's on track to be a 6 or 7 WAR player, and that's with average defens in the corner outfield. He's walking in nearly 14% of his at bats, a marked increase from his 10.8% career walk rate. His 153 wRC+ is 10th in MLB (tied with David Ortiz and Curtis Granderson), meaning he produces 53% more runs per plate appearance than the average hitter. Teams interested include the Giants, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, and Red Sox. One of those five should emerge as the leader eventually, and it'll be whoever budges first on surrendering a top prospect. My bet is that he goes to the Rangers or Giants and the Mets show reluctance to trade him to division rivals Philadelphia and Atlanta.

It's unbelievable that the Cardinals want to trade a young solid centerfielder like Colby Rasmus, but regardless, they seem inclined to do so. Trade rumors have swirled around Rasmus for the last year, and now they may be coming to a head, as the White Sox are in talks to acquire him for SP Edwin Jackson, CL Matt Thornton, and other pieces. Colby isn't the best defender by any means, but his bat is worth it. In his second full season last year, the left-handed Rasmus hit .270/.361/.498 (.859 OPS), an outstanding mark for a sophomore season by a 24-year-old center fielder. He does strike out about 20% of the time at the plate, but that's about average or close to it for MLB players. He's got 25 HR, 15 SB potential, and very solid speed. Any team in need of a better center-fielder may as well inquire on the 25-year-old Rasmus, who will be under team control through 2014! The White Sox would see great improvement if they replaced Alex Rios with Colby Rasmus in center field, and give themselves a boost in the AL Central race.

BJ Upton hasn't ever found a way to live up to the hype accompanying him, and as such, the Rays are looking to trade him. His .229/.310/.395 slash line is horrendous, however, he's still on pace for a 25 HR, 35 SB season, and plays great CF defense. His production is in line with his last three years, and has so much talent that most teams believe they can fix what Tampa Bay hasn't to this date. The Phillies, Braves, Nationals, Cardinals, and Pirates are all in on discussions for him. The Rays are demanding one of the Braves' top pitching prospects in return in their discussions with Atlanta, so the same caliber of prospect will be required of the other Upton suitors. Upton makes a lot of sense for the Phillies, and I think they're the most ideal situation for him.

Do you want a player that can can hit .260 with power and play average defense in your lineup as soon as tomorrow? Well, then do we have a deal for you! For the price of one middling minor league prospect, you can have your very own generic right-handed outfielder! Josh Willingham, Jeff Francoeur, and Ryan Ludwick are all respectable but not great outfielders, and all have been made available at the trade deadline this year as their respective teams have already fallen out of the playoff hunt. None will truly blow you away, but all of them have something in their favor.

Jeff Francoeur is the cream of the crop here, and already has 13 HRs and 16 SBs in 97 games. Teams continue to take flyers on Francoeur hoping for him to truly emerge as "The Natural" that he was dubbed by Sports Illustrated. However, by this point, teams should know what they're getting with Francoeur: a player who barely walks, has prodigious power and is an above average defender. For teams that want an on-base machine, Francoeur should be avoided like the plague as while he's hitting .269, his OBP is only .316 thus far. His contract is only $2.5 million this year, and he'll likely opt out of his mutual option for 2012 given his production numbers this year. Francoeur's a superb option for an outfield platoon, as he has a .979 OPS against left-handed pitchers this year. He's not a full-time starter however, as he's just as bad against right-handed pitching as he is good against lefties. The Red Sox have discussed acquring him, but his best fit is with a team like Pittsburgh that could slot him in at right field along with (or in place of) Garrett Jones, and see real improvement.

Ryan Ludwick's case is an interesting one. He's only hitting .244 on the year, and really isn't that good of a defender. However, he does already have 11 HRs and 61 RBIs for the woeful Padres offense. Away from home he's hitting .261, so there's reason to believe his performance stands to improve a bit. He was phenomenal hitting 5th or 6th for the St. Louis Cardinals from 2007-2010, because he had protection in the lineup. In the 2008-2010 period, Ludwick was 11.8, 34.9, and 12.5 runs above average as a fastball hitter respectively, speaking to the fact that when hitting behind Albert Pujols, he was a force to be reckoned with. He has prior history with the Indians, which may intrigue them a bit more than most teams. Shin-Soo Choo is out for a while longer with his injury, and Travis Buck and Austin Kearns have been abysmal. Ludwick won't cost a lot, and if he hits behind Hafner, Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana, his performance should improve and help the Indians out.

Similarly to Ludwick, Josh Willingham's performance has declined for the same reason, a lack of lineup protection. With the Nationals and Marlins, Willingham was an underrated and dependable corner outfielder with 30 HR power with an outstanding eye at the plate, drawing walks once every 7 plate appearances at his peak. In Oakland, Willingham has no protection leading to his .240ish average. Like Ludwick, Willingham was more than 10 runs above average as a fastball hitter the past two seasons, but has been merely average this year. He can't sit on fastballs because he can't depend on hitters ahead of him getting on base. Willingham at his best is a .270/.380/.470 guy at this point, nothing to scoff at. Willingham will command a heftier return package than Ludwick because he qualifies for Type A compensation following this season, but he also has higher upside than Ludwick. Willingham makes sense for a team like the Braves,who have a surplus of prospects, to supplant Nate McLouth in left field.

This next player can hit for power, is in a contract year, and could be valuable as a final piece for a team in need of an offensive spark. His name is Carlos. Unfortunately, that's about all that Carlos Pena has in common with Carlos Beltran. The sheer wind power generated by his swing-and-misses at breaking pitches could probably power a third-world country; however, the first baseman does present a 40 HR threat towards the back end of a lineup. His .221 average, damning for most MLB hitters, is accompanied by a .334 OBP and 20 HRs that are good enough to keep him in lineups. Jon Heyman stated that Arizona is interested, and he'd surely be an upgrade over Juan Miranda and Russell Branyan (their actual best option at first base, Paul Goldschmidt is dominating AAA, but that's a tale for another time). He could make sense for Pittsburgh too as a marked upgrade over Lyle Overbay, who has only 7 HRs and a .233/.302/.355 slash line at first base. He's still due about $4 million of his $10 million contract, but the Cubs would surely help foot the tab a bit to get a prospect in return.

Not interested in a Cubs corner infielder? (Even if you want Aramis Ramirez, you can't have him, he doesn't want to leave.) No worries, the Cubs are your one-stop shop for your hitting needs! If you're more in the short-term market, they have a two-month trial of Kosuke Fukudome available for purchase. Fukudome largely disappointed after receiving a ridiculous 4 year, $48 million contract in 2008. As a left-handed bat, he has proved to be effective against righties, hitting for a .264/.375/.409 career slash line against them. He could be a great #2 hitter against right-handed pitchers for a team in need of a right fielder, and apparently his market is rising after the Cubs offered to pay part of his contract, with the Indians seeming to be very interested. Oh what's that, you're looking more towards the long-term? Well then you're in luck, over here in the clearout section the Cubs can offer you Alfonso Soriano at a bargain bin price! The Cubs need to wash their hands of Soriano, who is still signed through 2014 at $18 million a year, so he's due about $60 million in total. They would probably pay $30 million just to see him leave, and take a low-end prospect in return. Soriano still has 30 homer power, but his .290 OBP is pretty pathetic. I highly doubt anyone will take Soriano if they have to pay any slightly significant portion of his contract, so the Cubs are probably just stuck with him. Look for them to try to negotiate a buyout with him this offseason.

The market for catchers is severely lacking this year, but Chris Iannetta is a pretty decent and affordable option as a backstop ($1 million more due this season, and $3.5 million for 2012). Like Pena, he's a bit of a windmill at the plate, but at the same time, he draws a walk in nearly 19% of his at bats. Some of that can probably be attributed to his hitting 8th in front of the pitcher, but his walk rate has always been high. He's hitting .220 but has a .778 OPS and 102 OPS+, making him an average MLB hitter on offense, which for a catcher, is more valuable than at most positions. However, the Rockies have stud prospect Wilin Rosario currently making AA ball look easy and primed to enter 2012 as the starter, so Iannetta is expendable. The Indians and Pirates have expressed interest, and are the leaders in the clubhouse. The Pirates acquired Michael McKenry from the Red Sox a month ago, and his .606 OPS is already wearing out his welcome in Pittsburgh. Given that the Indians have Carlos Santana playing catcher part-time, and that Lou Marson and Santana have handled the Indians staff masterfully, look for the Pirates to acquire him if anyone does.

Those are the main options, but surely aren't the only players that can move, just the most popular of the bunch. This next week could very well show to be the difference between a team contending for the playoffs and the World Series, so we'll see who steps up to the table and pays the price of winning.

1 comment:

  1. Colby Rasmus in a White Sox uni sounds scary. Detroit better do something to stay on top. Illitch just recently said "I'm no spring chicken," which I thinks means that he's not getting any younger and he wants to win now while the AL Central is soft.

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