MLB Trade Deadline - Pitchers

We know you're all excited about the Mark Ellis and Jeff Keppinger trades. Granted, those blockbusters shook the very foundation of the MLB power structure, but we thought you may be wondering where some other players are headed. I'll be here to guide you through the pitching market while Bryan is handling the hitters. While some of the guys listed won't be moved and plenty of players not listed will, we're only handling those drawing the most attention.


Ubaldo Jimenez is easily the best pitcher that has been talked about. While his stats haven't been quite as good as last year and his velocity has dipped a bit, the thing that draws most teams is his contract. Check this out (I removed last year's $1.25 million),

2011: $2.8 million
2012: $4.2 million
2013: $5.75 (club option)
2014: $8 million (club option)

Whether or not you believe Ubaldo is an ace that contract is a major steal. With the options the Rockies control his final year of arbitration and his first year of free agency. Dan O'Dowd, the Rockies' GM, was quoted in the Denver Post as saying that it would take a "Herschel Walker-type deal" to pry the prized righty from Colorado. Honestly, I see zero chance that he moves anywhere. Gun to my head, though, I would have to say that the only teams that would pay a king's ransom for him are the Yankees and the Rangers. For NYY it would start with Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and probably include some other minor leaguers. The Rangers are a bit more interesting, as their ace (CJ Wilson) is an upcoming free agent and for the playoffs they would have to rely on Colby Lewis (who was phenomenal last year, but is inconsistent this one) and a combination of Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, and Matt Harrison to round out their rotation. The price would be extravagant and the Rangers have a buffet of options (plus their top prospect, Jurickson Profar, wouldn't necessarily be needed) but I still don't see them pulling the trigger.

Wandy Rodriguez is a fantastic fallback option for teams who won't pony up for Jimenez. He is five years Ubaldo's senior (32 to 27) and his contract isn't nearly as friendly ($39 million through 2014, the final year becoming a player-option if he is traded). According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees and Red Sox don't believe that he can cut it in the AL. With Jim Crane wanting to cut $16 million off its payroll it kind of forces Ed Wade's hand. The Diamondbacks supposedly covet the left hander and he could be the piece that shifts the balance of power in the NL West. Don't be surprised if he lands there, but the contract could cause a lot of problems. Worst case, he'll just be the Astros ace during their rebuilding period.

A more intriguing alternative to Wandy may actually be Hiroki Kuroda. Since coming to the States, Kuroda has posted an ERA of 3.52 and has been a model of consistency. There are some injury concerns and at his age (36) those nicks and bumps may become a bigger deal. There's also the issue that he is quite happy in Los Angeles and loves playing on the West Coast. Sure, the Yankees and even the Red Sox could definitely use him and would pony up the prospects but would Kuroda accept a trade to those rabid markets? Kuroda is unsure if he would waive his no trade clause and that makes things murky. Also keep an eye out for Detroit (you'll begin to notice a trend here) and Arizona, should they fail in acquiring Wandy.

Perhaps your team is just in need of a mediocre starting pitcher. These guys won't light up the radar gun nor will they likely excite a fan base to rush out and buy merchandise. However, most of these guys are innings-eaters who can be plugged in at the back of a playoff team's rotation. They can help protect young arms that have innings limitations and won't cost your team the farm either, or prove to be marginal improvements on disappointing members of playoff rotations.

Aaron Harang heads our list. After a stint on the DL that kept him out for a month he came back with 16 2/3 straight scoreless innings. That sparkling 3.29 ERA is helped by Petco Park (2.92 ERA at home, 4.01 away) and everyone is aware of his struggles in his most recent seasons with the Reds at Great American Ballpark. It seems like such a distant memory that Harang was one of the most underrated pitchers in the league with two straight years of 200 Ks and ERAs under 3.8. The Detroit Tigers have been long rumored to be the frontrunners for the right hander but it should be noted he only has 108.1 IP in the AL (during a two year tenure in Oakland) and may need time to adjust to the uptick in competition.

Derek Lowe is the only guy on this list whose team is looking like a playoff contender. He's as durable as they come, pitching over 190 innings every year except one (2004 with Boston, where he also closed some and still ended up with 182 IP) since 2002. With Atlanta he has been a disappointment and his four year, $60 million dollar contract looks like a major whiff. Even in the playoffs Lowe probably wouldn't be in their rotation (Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Brandon Beachy unless he gets shifted to the bullpen to conserve innings) and they have no reason to push him to the bullpen (with Johnny Venters and Craig Kimbrel locking the final innings down). They don't even need him in his 2012 season (the final year of his contract), as Mike Minor and Julio Teheran are refining their arsenals in AAA and expected to contribute next year. I don't see him being moved but if he is, that has "Detroit Tigers" written all over it, because both he and Harang could somehow start for them in the playoffs and he doesn't require a blockbuster return. The market for him is very minimal, so he should be the easiest to acquire.

Jeremy Guthrie is the best 4-14 pitcher you may ever see. The Orioles ace-by-default has been solid yet unspectacular this year and loves to chew through innings like they're a two dollar ribeye. He's an inconsistent pitcher, who in 2008 and 2010 had great success with his fastball, and in 2009 and 2011 has basically run out to the mound with an almost completely below-average offering of pitches.  He's pitching exactly to his peripherals as well (4.35 FIP and 4.31 xFIP).  He has been labeled as the "most likely player to be traded at the deadline" and the Orioles are unlikely to retain his services in the offseason. Instead of sounding like a metronome and saying Detroit I am going to go with three NL teams as landing spots for Guthrie: St. Louis, Arizona, and Cincinnati. St. Louis is probably more enamored with Edwin Jackson (more on him in a moment) but Guthrie could be a nice backup plan. Arizona needs a starter if they are serious about contending this year (Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson are great, Josh Collmenter and Joe Saunders are serviceable, but come playoff time who knows how much these guys will have left). Should they miss out on Wandy Rodriguez they could look for a lower tier guy like Guthrie. Cincinnati is a team that is currently in a flux, especially with pitching. Johnny Cueto has been fantastic and matches up with any other number one starter out there. Bronson Arroyo has been a major disappointment (5.56 ERA, 29 home runs allowed in 20 starts) and Edinson Volquez's 2008 is a distant memory. Travis Wood (currently in the minors), Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey are great but streaky. Unless they want to hitch their wagon to the D-Train they could use a #2 starter if they want to catch St. Louis and Pittsburgh.

Edwin Jackson is the final middling starter available. E-Jax may also very well be the best pitcher that is readily available on this entire blog post. Last year, when the White Sox acquired him from the Diamondbacks (for Daniel Hudson, no less), Don Cooper noticed a mechanical flaw in his delivery that he thought he could fix. Needless to say, he pushed some right buttons because Jackson was infinitely better in Chicago than Arizona (5.16 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .274 BAA for the D-Backs, 3.24 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .248 BAA for CWS). This year, he's had stretches of dominance even if the ERA isn't sterling (3.92) but his FIP says he's having the best year of his career (3.20). His HR/FB% has dropped, and for the first time in his career, his fastball is actually above average.  Jackson has increased how often he's throwing sliders, and that's helped to reduce the homers he's surrendered.  As odd as it feels to say, Edwin Jackson may actually be fixed now.  Yesterday some rumors cropped up that Jackson could be headed, with Matt Thornton, to the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus. I doubt that will come to pass but I would not at all be surprised if he ended up in STL.


Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Leo Nunez, and Koji Uehara are the best bullpen arms out there. Bell has the most closing experience and is likely to get dealt by the Padres to a team that needs someone for the ninth inning. His fastball is already ten runs above average on the season, in part thanks to his adding a two-seamer to his arsenal this season.  Some rumors say that he could end up in Texas, setting up for Neftali Feliz, but I just don't see it. He will be dealt at some point, though, and I would say the Cardinals are the front runners. When he is inevitably dealt that would leave Mike Adams as the closer in San Diego, that is, if he doesn't end up getting moved himself. Adams is better than even Bell, though he lacks saves and a lot of GMs or teams that would acquire him would do so for him to close. Adams has the best cutter of any reliever in baseball this year (yes, better than even Mariano Rivera's), as his cutter has been ten runs above average. The difference is, Adams also has an above-average fastball, whereas Bell's secondary pitches (curveball and changeup) are completely average. A report surfaced last week that he has applied for a passport in case he needs to play in the AL but I doubt he'll get shipped out of San Diego this year.

Nunez, the Marlins' closer, has also been linked to rumors. Leo's 2011 is very interesting, as his groundball rate is down from 54.1% to an alarmingly low 32% this year, yet he's just as successful.  That can be attributed to the Marlins' spacious ballpark, as Leo Nunez career has a 5.06 ERA away from home.  I feel like a broken record bringing up the Detroit Tigers once again, but after Florida showed interest in the recently demoted Brandon Inge, it was rumored that he could be dealt for Nunez. It would make sense; Nunez could set up for Valverde and potentially close next year in case Detroit cannot retain "Papa Grande", and as a flyball pitcher, he could survive in spacious Comerica. The Phillies have also shown interest in Nunez (as well as Bell), but with Ryan Madson and Antonio Bastardo at the end of their bullpen I don't see a fit. Uehara has been nothing short of remarkable this season. After struggling as a starter he has reinvented himself as a superb setup man. With a 59/8 K/BB ratio and in 45 innings just about any contender could find a fit for his services. If the Orioles move him at the deadline don't be surprised to see his fantastic sideburns pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Though it wouldn't be a major move, it could be what the Pirates need to win the NL Central (pending some help on offense, whether through the market or the triumphant return of Pedro Alvarez).

The biggest enigma of all would have to be Erik Bedard. Back when the Mariners got the then-Orioles ace, a lot of experts touted the one-two punch of Felix Hernandez and Bedard as the best in baseball. Needless to say it didn't really work out that way. When Bedard has been on the mound, he's been great, but he's only had a total of 250 innings, including this year, in three seasons with Seattle. In fact, he's on the disabled list right now with a sprained left knee. He could return to the Mariners' rotation this Saturday against Tampa Bay and the Mariners would be well served to pounce on the opportunity to deal him before he heads back to the DL. They wouldn't be looking at much, but a handful of teams would be more than willing to take fliers. The Rangers took a chance of Brandon Webb in the offseason that never paid out and could take a flier (even though they're divisional opponents these same two teams were involved in last year's Cliff Lee trade). Really, any team that I have listed in this entire post could take a gamble on him as he wouldn't be pricey at all.

Finally, I figured I would wrap up this post with a name that is rumored to multiple teams, even for some of the very guys on this list. I'm talking about Vance Worley, the goggle wearing, fist pumping, sweaty man-beast of Philadelphia. I know that Phillies fans believe he is the greatest thing since J.A. Happ but let's be honest here: he's not a top-end starter. His value is at its absolute peak and the Phillies should definitely look for deals with teams that would consider him as a centerpiece. At the end of the day, though, the regression is coming and it's going to hit Worley just as hard as it hit Happ, which his 4.01 xFIP suggests (right now Worley has a 3.1% HR/FB ratio, once that corrects into the 8-10% range the ERA will soar, even Roy Halladay has a 6.5% and Cliff Lee sits at 9.5%). He could stay in Philadelphia and hold his own in the playoffs this year but the Phils are doing the right thing by dangling him for upgrades to the rest of their roster.