The playoffs finally are set to begin tonight after the most exciting day in recent sports memory on Wednesday, where the Rays and Cardinals finished their September resurgences while the Braves and Red Sox finished their September collapses. Only 2 of the 100 experts on ESPN's predictions for this year's World Series can still actually happen according to ESPN's Baseball Today podcast, so that shows what kind of season it was, and why we love the unpredictable game of baseball. Even if it does make predictions look stupid after the season. Now I'm going to post my predictions for the Divisional Series matchups as well as some insight on each matchup.
AL Divisional Series:
New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers:
The Yankees posted the best record in the AL and are rewarded by having to face one of the best 1-2 punches in Justin Verlander and Doug Fister of the Tigers. Do I think Doug Fister is really a #2 starter at this point? Not really, but he's pitched as the equal of Justin Verlander down the stretch of the season, and has a 2.5 ERA since coming over from the Mariners in the mid-season trade. Verlander and Fister are the keys to this series though.
The Tigers will be operating with a 4-man rotation while it looks as if the Yankees will go with a 3-man rotation. We all know C.C. Sabathia can handle pitching on short rest if we remember back to him almost carrying the Brewers to the playoffs singlehandedly and pitching regularly on 2 or 3 days rest. Ivan Nova will be the #2 pitcher for the Yankees and has pitched admirably this year. He matches up well with Fister. The Yankees realize that they have no rotational depth, hence the 3-man rotation, and that may prove to be their biggest advantage over the Tigers. Jim Leyland has stated publicly that he refuses to pitch Verlander sooner than Game 5 for his second start, even if the Tigers are down 2-1. In this scenario, Rick Porcello would be facing up against likely Cy Young runner-up C.C. Sabathia for the Tigers' playoff lives. I think I know who I favor in that matchup.
The Tigers have a strong lineup, with Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila, but they're not as strong as the Yankees' lineup.
My X-factor for this series is the managing. Jim Leyland, similarly to Tony La Russa, over-manages games and often puts his teams in bad situations as a result. If Leyland gets too pretty with the lineups and does actually refuse to pitch Verlander in a Game 4, the Tigers could be sitting at home at this time next week.
The Pick: Verlander must win his first start, and the Tigers need Doug Fister or Max Scherzer to win in matchups that they have the advantage in. Given that the Tigers have the starting pitching advantage and a good back-end of a bullpen, I'm taking the Tigers in 5, with Verlander closing out the series.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers:
The Rays snuck into the playoffs, but don't sleep on them now that they're in. Their rotation can compare to anyone's other than the Phillies, and they have such depth that they can have no qualms about using a 4-man rotation. James Shields and David Price will get votes on most Cy Young ballots, Jeremy Hellickson posted a sub-3 ERA in his rookie season, Jeff Niemann was solid after a hiccup last year, and rookie Matt Moore has dynamite stuff and will be counted on in Game 1 of the ALDS since Shields and Price pitched the final two games of the Rays' season. The remarkable facet of the Rays' team is the revamped bullpen. After losing nearly the entire bullpen, the mix-and-match group of seemingly average relievers has become a major strength. Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta combined to be a great relief group, although the depth is a bit lacking. Wade Davis will likely be used as a reliever as well, another solid starter. The Rays' problem is offense. They lack power and are more of a small-ball team. 7 Rays players had double digit steals this season including speedsters B.J. Upton and Desmond Jennings.
The Rangers are an offensive powerhouse, led by Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and offseason acquisitions Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli. Napoli and Beltre were welcomed additions and really added to the already impressive Rangers offense. The Rangers, however, will struggle with pitching. Game 2 and 3 starters Derek Holland and Colby lewis had 3.95 and 4.40 ERAs this year respectively, although admittedly Holland has improved throughout the season. Regardless, the Rays have a major starting pitching advantage. The Rangers may have the edge in the bullpen, with Mike Adams, Neftali Feliz, Darren Oliver, Koji Uehara and Alexi Ogando all ready to go.
The Pick: This is a classic matchup of pitching against hitting, and should be a fun series. I'm going to take the Rangers though to come out on top in 5 in a tight series. Playing in Arlington 3 games may end up being the key factor here as the Rangers perform so well at home. Rangers in 5.
NL Divisional Series:
St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies:
The Cardinals had a tremendous September and overtook the slumping Braves with a 23-9 record to end the year. Now they face the buzzsaw that is Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee. Roy Oswalt also looms in the background if they need him.
The Cardinals managed to have the most quietly productive offense in baseball, as I just found out on Wednesday that the Cardinals led the NL in runs scored. While Matt Holliday will be unavailable for Game 1 of the NLDS and possibly more games, utilityman Allen Craig has done a tremendous job and has a strong power bat to replace him. Most of the Cardinals' regulars hit .290 or above, and that's the key advantage they have on the Phillies, whose offense isn't what it was when they won the World Series a few years back.
The Phillies have so much pitching though that it's tough to believe that the Cardinals can win.
The Pick: In Games 1 and 5, Kyle Lohse faces Roy Halladay. In Game 2, Edwin Jackson faces off against Cliff Lee. This is a recipe for disaster for the Cardinals. Unfortunately they needed Chris Carpenter in game 162, because Carpenter would give them a chance to steal a Halladay win. I can't see the Cardinals winning this series, but I'll give them one win. Phillies in 4.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers:
The Brewers were largely picked to win the NL Central after acquiring Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke to go along with Yovani Gallardo, and the results are exactly as expected. The offense is still powerful, led by Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and Nyjer Morgan, but the pitching has been fantastic for the Brewers, and is a major advantage over the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks do have Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson who performed admirably as the #1 and #2 starters this season, but both are predominantly flyball pitchers, and could be exploited in this series. The Diamondbacks' rotational depth is poor in comparison to the Brewers.
Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, their lineup is also poor in comparison to the Brewers. Justin Upton, Gerardo Parra and Miguel Montero had great years, but nothing comparing to Ryan Braun's season. The rest of the lineup is solid yet unspectacular, and against the Brewers' offense and pitching, that's likely not going to be enough. The Brewers even have the bullpen advantage with K-Rod, John Axford and Takashi Saito waiting to close out every game.
The Pick: The Diamondbacks are the most overmatched team in the playoffs, and it'd be a true accomplishment if they make the NLCS, because this roster doesn't have any business being in the playoffs. The Brewers look set to face off against the Phillies and have a pitcher's duel, but first they'll dispose of the Diamondbacks quickly and easily. Brewers in 3.
9/30/11
How to Fix the Boston Red Sox
I want to thank all of you for your concern and kind words. I received multiple texts, IMs, and emails in reference to the most recent Red Sox collapse. I'm happy to report that no, I did not drive off a bridge and no, I did not torch all of my memorabilia. Before I get too far into this post, though, I want to state up front that a lot of what I am about to write out is in the moment and I may look back and regret it. Then again, I may look at this post in a few months and compare it to what will actually happen and wish that this was the blueprint for the future. Only time will tell but I felt a sense of obligation to try and put together a rational plan for my favorite team following a choke job of epic proportions.
1) Figure Out the Managing Situation
The breaking news this morning from Ken Rosenthal is that Terry Francona and the Red Sox are mutually agreeing to part ways. The two parties are meeting this morning (or perhaps they already have) and it's likely that sometime today or tomorrow there will be a formal announcement that Tito has been let go. If he departs he leaves with a 734-531 record and two World Series championships. The Francona regime has easily been the most successful in Red Sox history and it's a shame to see it potentially end in such a disgracing manner. There are reports coming out of Boston that there were problems in the clubhouse, including pitchers drinking during their off days and cliques forming that caused fissures in the team's chemistry. I don't know how much stock I put into these things just yet but if it was happening under his watch then it's a huge red flag. Maybe this is just a case of a manager's message getting drowned out after so many years of continuity. At any rate, Francona is likely gone and he's rumored to be an option for the Chicago White Sox and I hope no Red Sox fans harbor ill will towards him for this ending. [NOTE: ESPN is now reporting that Francona has told the team that he is out as manager.]
As far as other options to replace Tito, well there isn't a whole lot out there. I've already seen Tony La Russa, Bobby Valentine, and Joe Torre as options but let's not kid ourselves, those are terrible fits. Buster Olney is speculating that the team should look at Pete Mackanin, the bench coach of the Philadelphia Phillies. I'll have to plead ignorance here because I don't know a heck of a lot about the guy but I trust Buster's opinion. Joe Maddon isn't going to leave Tampa Bay for Boston so that idea is shot and everyone that posts it on a forum or calls into a radio show suggesting it should just stop talking spots. It's obvious that John Farrell would have been the best option but he was stolen away by Toronto last offseason. If the team wants to stay in house then I personally believe that DeMarlo Hale is an excellent candidate. I doubt there will be a major, shocking hire but if I had to throw out a big name possibility I would say keep your eye on Mike Scioscia. I don't think he'd leave the Angels but that's the craziest possibility I could think of that has even a toe in the realm of possibility (I should note as I was typing this that Colin Cowherd mentioned it on his radio show, perfect timing). [NOTE: The Angels just let go of their GM, Tony Reagins. My main rational for the Scioscia suggestion was the fact that there was supposed tension between he and the front office. Scratch his name off the list.] I have accepted that it will probably end up being Jim Riggleman or someone of that ilk.
2) Give Carl Crawford Some Space
He's already being nicknamed the "Carlbatross." Fans and radio hosts on WEEI are already saying that he is more disappointing than John Lackey. There are suggestions that the team should try to trade him ala Vernon Wells. Stop it. Everyone who keeps suggesting this just freakin' stop. Yes, Crawford had the worst year of his career and he's signed for another six years to a gazillion dollars. I get it, he missed a catch that we as fans have seen him make time and time again for Tampa Bay. Here's the thing though: Crawford probably shouldn't have been signed in the first place. There was literally no place to put him in the lineup and it didn't make sense at the time and it makes even less sense now. Crawford doesn't like to hit leadoff and the team also happens to have Jacoby Ellsbury there. Alright, well he usually hit second or third in Tampa and he's more comfortable there anyway. Well, the team also happens to have Dustin Pedroia (pretty much the perfect #2 hitter) and Adrian Gonzalez (ditto for the #3 slot). Crawford started the year hitting in the three hole and it was obvious that he struggled to produce. So where does that leave him to hit in the lineup, the bottom third? Well then that negates his best asset, which happens to be his speed, because how can he steal a base when David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, or J.D. Drew are on base ahead of him? After his various leg injuries he didn't have confidence in his wheels and it showed.
Hopefully his sophomore year in red will bring better results. Maybe he had to take a step back to take a step forward, I truly have no idea. Perhaps the team should do with him what the Yankees did with Curtis Granderson, who also struggled against left handers: adjust to the pitcher on the mound. If there's a right hander up there then put him in the two hole and bat Pedroia in the cleanup slot (which, somehow, he makes work). When there's a leftie then bat him near the bottom and hope that he eventually has an epiphany like Granderson did this year. As far as his defense goes, anyone who knows advanced defensive stats or just watches baseball knew that he would lose a ton of value there. A lot of flyball outs that he got in Tampa were now doubles off of the high walls of the Green Monster. Remember the Evan Longoria walkoff homer on that dinky little fence in the left field corner? Yeah, I think it's easier to make to make an out on a flyball in Tampa than Boston.
1) Figure Out the Managing Situation
The breaking news this morning from Ken Rosenthal is that Terry Francona and the Red Sox are mutually agreeing to part ways. The two parties are meeting this morning (or perhaps they already have) and it's likely that sometime today or tomorrow there will be a formal announcement that Tito has been let go. If he departs he leaves with a 734-531 record and two World Series championships. The Francona regime has easily been the most successful in Red Sox history and it's a shame to see it potentially end in such a disgracing manner. There are reports coming out of Boston that there were problems in the clubhouse, including pitchers drinking during their off days and cliques forming that caused fissures in the team's chemistry. I don't know how much stock I put into these things just yet but if it was happening under his watch then it's a huge red flag. Maybe this is just a case of a manager's message getting drowned out after so many years of continuity. At any rate, Francona is likely gone and he's rumored to be an option for the Chicago White Sox and I hope no Red Sox fans harbor ill will towards him for this ending. [NOTE: ESPN is now reporting that Francona has told the team that he is out as manager.]
As far as other options to replace Tito, well there isn't a whole lot out there. I've already seen Tony La Russa, Bobby Valentine, and Joe Torre as options but let's not kid ourselves, those are terrible fits. Buster Olney is speculating that the team should look at Pete Mackanin, the bench coach of the Philadelphia Phillies. I'll have to plead ignorance here because I don't know a heck of a lot about the guy but I trust Buster's opinion. Joe Maddon isn't going to leave Tampa Bay for Boston so that idea is shot and everyone that posts it on a forum or calls into a radio show suggesting it should just stop talking spots. It's obvious that John Farrell would have been the best option but he was stolen away by Toronto last offseason. If the team wants to stay in house then I personally believe that DeMarlo Hale is an excellent candidate. I doubt there will be a major, shocking hire but if I had to throw out a big name possibility I would say keep your eye on Mike Scioscia. I don't think he'd leave the Angels but that's the craziest possibility I could think of that has even a toe in the realm of possibility (I should note as I was typing this that Colin Cowherd mentioned it on his radio show, perfect timing). [NOTE: The Angels just let go of their GM, Tony Reagins. My main rational for the Scioscia suggestion was the fact that there was supposed tension between he and the front office. Scratch his name off the list.] I have accepted that it will probably end up being Jim Riggleman or someone of that ilk.
2) Give Carl Crawford Some Space
He's already being nicknamed the "Carlbatross." Fans and radio hosts on WEEI are already saying that he is more disappointing than John Lackey. There are suggestions that the team should try to trade him ala Vernon Wells. Stop it. Everyone who keeps suggesting this just freakin' stop. Yes, Crawford had the worst year of his career and he's signed for another six years to a gazillion dollars. I get it, he missed a catch that we as fans have seen him make time and time again for Tampa Bay. Here's the thing though: Crawford probably shouldn't have been signed in the first place. There was literally no place to put him in the lineup and it didn't make sense at the time and it makes even less sense now. Crawford doesn't like to hit leadoff and the team also happens to have Jacoby Ellsbury there. Alright, well he usually hit second or third in Tampa and he's more comfortable there anyway. Well, the team also happens to have Dustin Pedroia (pretty much the perfect #2 hitter) and Adrian Gonzalez (ditto for the #3 slot). Crawford started the year hitting in the three hole and it was obvious that he struggled to produce. So where does that leave him to hit in the lineup, the bottom third? Well then that negates his best asset, which happens to be his speed, because how can he steal a base when David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, or J.D. Drew are on base ahead of him? After his various leg injuries he didn't have confidence in his wheels and it showed.
Hopefully his sophomore year in red will bring better results. Maybe he had to take a step back to take a step forward, I truly have no idea. Perhaps the team should do with him what the Yankees did with Curtis Granderson, who also struggled against left handers: adjust to the pitcher on the mound. If there's a right hander up there then put him in the two hole and bat Pedroia in the cleanup slot (which, somehow, he makes work). When there's a leftie then bat him near the bottom and hope that he eventually has an epiphany like Granderson did this year. As far as his defense goes, anyone who knows advanced defensive stats or just watches baseball knew that he would lose a ton of value there. A lot of flyball outs that he got in Tampa were now doubles off of the high walls of the Green Monster. Remember the Evan Longoria walkoff homer on that dinky little fence in the left field corner? Yeah, I think it's easier to make to make an out on a flyball in Tampa than Boston.
Heisman High Men: Week 5
We're finally to the beginning of each conference's respective seasons, and this is where Heisman contenders are truly established. There's a sizeable group of feasible Heisman candidates right now. A select group of quarterbacks (Kellen Moore, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Brandon Weeden, Russell Wilson, Denard Robinson, Case Keenum), a group of well-known runningbacks (Marcus Lattimore, Trent Richardson, LaMichael James, David Wilson), and two stand-out receivers (Justin Blackmon and Sammy Watkins). Tyrann Mathieu, the play-making LSU cornerback has an outside shot, but he'd need to force double digit turnovers, which is highly unlikely. One month from now, the top 5 will be very solidified for the Heisman, but as of now, it's still open to a bit of interpretation.
1. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: 70/82 (85.4%), 962 yards, 13 TD, 24 rushes for 167 yards, 1 TD
Griffin may not look as impressive in passing yardage, but when a quarterback on an undefeated team has more TD passes than incompletions, he's gotta be mentioned here. Griffin's game against TCU is still one of the more shocking upsets of the season, and Griffin is legitimately one of the top few quarterbacks in the country. He's only played 3 games, so he's on pace for 50 TDs and over 4,100 passing yards. Will he meet either mark? Probably not. But he's got a shot at the passing yardage mark, and could easily throw 35-40 TDs in the offense that revolves around his arm and legs. He'll probably compile 600-800 rushing yards over the year too. He'll be the Denard Robinson of this year probably; carrying the load of an entire 7-5 or 8-4 team on his back and receiving minor consideration for the Heisman award. But right now, he's in first place. His next matchup is against the Kansas State Wildcats, whose defense has been strong this year, but has yet to face a player as good as Robert Griffin.
2. Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina: 107 rushes for 600 yards, 8 TDs, 12 receptions for 139 yards, 1 TD
The South Carolina offense is relying on Lattimore more than ever, as he's on pace to total over 2,000 all purpose yards. With the passing game out of sync, Alshon Jeffery and Stephen Garcia have failed to establish a consistent connection, and Lattimore has been the bellcow of the offense. Lattimore runs with extraordinary power and balance and seemingly always breaks the first attempted tackle. He's on pace to have probably 50 more carries this season than last year, and is also averaging 5.6 yards per carry in 2011 compared to 4.7 last year. Lattimore will continue to be the centerpiece of the offense, and as long as South Carolina remains in the chase for an SEC title, Lattimore will be one of the leading Heisman contenders. This week, the South Carolina Gamecocks face Auburn at home. Auburn's pathetic excuse of a defense will let Lattimore run rampant and total close to 200 yards probably this week, so look for Lattimore to remain near the top of the list next week.
3. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State: 83/105 (79%), 995 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT
Kellen Moore, like Robert Griffin III, has only played 3 games, so he's still averaging 4 TDs and 331.7 yards per game. The remarkable thing about Moore though is that after losing Titus Young and Austin Pettis to the NFL, the passing offense hasn't skipped a beat. While Boise State has a fairly average running game (117.7 rushing yards per game) and RB Doug Martin has struggled, averaging a mere 2.6 yards per carry, Kellen Moore and the passing offense have continued where they ended last year. 7 receivers have at least 8 catches this season, showcasing the balance that the offense has. The offensive line is solid in pass protection, as Kellen has yet to be sacked, but he's also completing 79% of his passes, an impressive feat regardless of the protection. This week the Broncos take on Nevada, who de-railed their season last year in one of the bigger surprises of the 2010 season. Look for Moore to post another 300 yard and 4 TD game
4. Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin: 69/91 (75.8%), 1,136 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT, 16 rushes for 91 yards, 1 TD
N.C. State coach Tom O'Brien can say whatever he wants, the fact is, he made a major mistake releasing Russell Wilson from his scholarship and letting him transfer to Wisconsin. Russell Wilson has been the single most impactful newcomer in the country for any team, and has played with remarkable precision. The record-holder for most passes thrown between interceptions is rarely letting the ball hit the ground this year. In the power-running offense of Wisconsin, he's managed to average nearly 300 passing yards per game on a mere 23 attempts per game average. He easily leads the nation's quarterbacks in yards per attempt (12.5) and is second in QB Rating to Robert Griffin III. Wilson has made Wisconsin's coaching staff realize they need to place a greater importance on recruiting game-changing quarterbacks rather than game managers. This week, the Badgers square off with Nebraska in arguably the game of the week. Should Wisconsin win this game, Wilson's national profile will continue to grow and Wisconsin may vault into the top 5. This is the first true test of the Wisconsin offense, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against the "Blackshirts".
5. Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State: 142/191 (74.3%), 1,592 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT
Brandon Weeden completely outclassed fellow Heisman contender QB Ryan Tannehill last weekend as the Cowboys pulled out a gutty victory against the Texas A&M Aggies 30-29. Weeden went 47/60 in the game and threw for over 400 yards. The play of the 28-year-old senior has led Oklahoma State to a top-5 ranking in some polls' eyes, and to consideration in the national title picture. Oklahoma State still has plenty of obstacles ahead, including their final game on December 3rd against Oklahoma, but there's no doubt, they have a shot at running the table this year with the high-flying passing game led by Weeden and Justin Blackmon.
2. Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina: 107 rushes for 600 yards, 8 TDs, 12 receptions for 139 yards, 1 TD
The South Carolina offense is relying on Lattimore more than ever, as he's on pace to total over 2,000 all purpose yards. With the passing game out of sync, Alshon Jeffery and Stephen Garcia have failed to establish a consistent connection, and Lattimore has been the bellcow of the offense. Lattimore runs with extraordinary power and balance and seemingly always breaks the first attempted tackle. He's on pace to have probably 50 more carries this season than last year, and is also averaging 5.6 yards per carry in 2011 compared to 4.7 last year. Lattimore will continue to be the centerpiece of the offense, and as long as South Carolina remains in the chase for an SEC title, Lattimore will be one of the leading Heisman contenders. This week, the South Carolina Gamecocks face Auburn at home. Auburn's pathetic excuse of a defense will let Lattimore run rampant and total close to 200 yards probably this week, so look for Lattimore to remain near the top of the list next week.
3. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State: 83/105 (79%), 995 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT
Kellen Moore, like Robert Griffin III, has only played 3 games, so he's still averaging 4 TDs and 331.7 yards per game. The remarkable thing about Moore though is that after losing Titus Young and Austin Pettis to the NFL, the passing offense hasn't skipped a beat. While Boise State has a fairly average running game (117.7 rushing yards per game) and RB Doug Martin has struggled, averaging a mere 2.6 yards per carry, Kellen Moore and the passing offense have continued where they ended last year. 7 receivers have at least 8 catches this season, showcasing the balance that the offense has. The offensive line is solid in pass protection, as Kellen has yet to be sacked, but he's also completing 79% of his passes, an impressive feat regardless of the protection. This week the Broncos take on Nevada, who de-railed their season last year in one of the bigger surprises of the 2010 season. Look for Moore to post another 300 yard and 4 TD game
4. Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin: 69/91 (75.8%), 1,136 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT, 16 rushes for 91 yards, 1 TD
N.C. State coach Tom O'Brien can say whatever he wants, the fact is, he made a major mistake releasing Russell Wilson from his scholarship and letting him transfer to Wisconsin. Russell Wilson has been the single most impactful newcomer in the country for any team, and has played with remarkable precision. The record-holder for most passes thrown between interceptions is rarely letting the ball hit the ground this year. In the power-running offense of Wisconsin, he's managed to average nearly 300 passing yards per game on a mere 23 attempts per game average. He easily leads the nation's quarterbacks in yards per attempt (12.5) and is second in QB Rating to Robert Griffin III. Wilson has made Wisconsin's coaching staff realize they need to place a greater importance on recruiting game-changing quarterbacks rather than game managers. This week, the Badgers square off with Nebraska in arguably the game of the week. Should Wisconsin win this game, Wilson's national profile will continue to grow and Wisconsin may vault into the top 5. This is the first true test of the Wisconsin offense, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against the "Blackshirts".
5. Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State: 142/191 (74.3%), 1,592 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT
Brandon Weeden completely outclassed fellow Heisman contender QB Ryan Tannehill last weekend as the Cowboys pulled out a gutty victory against the Texas A&M Aggies 30-29. Weeden went 47/60 in the game and threw for over 400 yards. The play of the 28-year-old senior has led Oklahoma State to a top-5 ranking in some polls' eyes, and to consideration in the national title picture. Oklahoma State still has plenty of obstacles ahead, including their final game on December 3rd against Oklahoma, but there's no doubt, they have a shot at running the table this year with the high-flying passing game led by Weeden and Justin Blackmon.
Week 5 NCAA Preview and Poll
Week 4 is in the books, and a few teams made real statements. LSU showed they're not being stopped this year by anyone not named Alabama or Florida, and dominated West Virginia on a national stage. Alabama dismantled Arkansas on national television and coasted to an easy win. Oklahoma State made a huge comeback against the Texas A&M Aggies to win a top-10 matchup and establish themselves as the leading competition to Oklahoma in the Big 12. But now, it's time to look at Week 5 and preview what's in store for this week's slate. After the jump, my top 25 poll and picks.
9/28/11
Debris Caution: AAA 400
Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.
So far the Chase has been the Tony Stewart winning extravaganza. After going winless during the "regular season," Smoke has reeled off two straight victories that have propelled him to the top of the Sprint Cup standings. The biggest losers last week were Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman, who both lost five spots in the points. As the series heads to Dover, Delaware it's obvious that some drivers are going to need to play catchup at the Monster Mile.
Seeing as I live in Pennsylvania I get daily commercials for Dover International Speedway. These ads feature drivers talking about how they like the track and the area but the final part shows Tony Stewart's wrecked at the track where he flipped three or so times. So obviously Stewart has some bad memories from the track but right now he's the man to beat. He's won twice at Dover but neither of those are in the past 10 years. His career finish of 12.5 with ten top-5s in 25 starts show that he's a threat to win once again but I don't think he'll pull off a three-peat.
The man only seven points behind Stewart, Kevin Harvick, has struggled at Dover. Harvick has 21 career starts at the Monster Mile and only eight top-10s (two top-5s, zero wins). This is probably the worst track for Harvick that's left on the schedule but if he can salvage a decent finish it may be the biggest boost the #29 team could ask for. Brad Keselowski is third in points, eleven behind Stewart, and once again throw out the stats for this guy. Kes has only three starts, no top-10s, and an average finish of 17.7 (for reference Harvick's is 17.0) but as we have learned the "Blue Deuce" is always one of the best cars on the track. I think that Kes will finish ahead of Harvick and in the end also pass him in the points race, though they're in danger of being leapfrogged by the next two guys.
So far the Chase has been the Tony Stewart winning extravaganza. After going winless during the "regular season," Smoke has reeled off two straight victories that have propelled him to the top of the Sprint Cup standings. The biggest losers last week were Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman, who both lost five spots in the points. As the series heads to Dover, Delaware it's obvious that some drivers are going to need to play catchup at the Monster Mile.
Seeing as I live in Pennsylvania I get daily commercials for Dover International Speedway. These ads feature drivers talking about how they like the track and the area but the final part shows Tony Stewart's wrecked at the track where he flipped three or so times. So obviously Stewart has some bad memories from the track but right now he's the man to beat. He's won twice at Dover but neither of those are in the past 10 years. His career finish of 12.5 with ten top-5s in 25 starts show that he's a threat to win once again but I don't think he'll pull off a three-peat.
The man only seven points behind Stewart, Kevin Harvick, has struggled at Dover. Harvick has 21 career starts at the Monster Mile and only eight top-10s (two top-5s, zero wins). This is probably the worst track for Harvick that's left on the schedule but if he can salvage a decent finish it may be the biggest boost the #29 team could ask for. Brad Keselowski is third in points, eleven behind Stewart, and once again throw out the stats for this guy. Kes has only three starts, no top-10s, and an average finish of 17.7 (for reference Harvick's is 17.0) but as we have learned the "Blue Deuce" is always one of the best cars on the track. I think that Kes will finish ahead of Harvick and in the end also pass him in the points race, though they're in danger of being leapfrogged by the next two guys.
9/27/11
Week 3 NFL Quick Hits
San Francisco @ Cincinnati - It's odd to see a team end the game with eight points but the Bengals managed to do just that. Andy Dalton went from the toast of the league to being, well, the Andy Dalton we all saw in the preseason. While the Bengals looked like a team that could win some games and play spoiler towards the end of the year last week they just proved to be exactly who we thought they were. It doesn't help that Cedric Benson and Jerome Simpson are both facing potential suspensions. As far as the 49ers, well all I can say is welcome to the lead in the NFC West. Alex Smith threw his type of game (20 completions, 201 yards) but seemed to realize that Vernon Davis is his best target and he should throw to him whenever possible (especially at the expense of Michael Crabtree). Frank Gore sprained his right ankle in this game and if he missed any amount of time it would be a devastating loss for the Niners.
Jacksonville @ Carolina - Cam Newton's marvelous streak of 400 games was snapped at two. Jacksonville held him to only 158 yards through the air but the only touchdown he threw was the one that ended up being the game winner. For the Panthers, the most interesting news to come out following this game was their devotion to DeAngelo Williams. Even though Jonathan Stewart is clearly the better back it seems that the Panthers aren't quite ready to give up on their big money man. Eventually it gets to the point that the better football player gets an increased role so we'll see how Ron Rivera handles this in the coming weeks (or if DeAngelo can turn it around). The Jags trotted Blaine Gabbert out for his first start and it went sort of alright. He completed 57% of his passes and threw for a touchdown but also was picked off and only amassed 139 yards. He wasn't asked to do a whole lot, though, because Maurice Jones-Drew was gashing the Panthers on the ground.
Detroit @ Minnesota - Alright Lions, now you're just making me look like an idiot for ever doubting you. Even though Detroit's defense didn't have its best day the Lions were able to come back and win this game behind Matt Stafford and his arm, along with a few assists from Jason Hanson. Calvin Johnson had his first 100-yard game of the year and the Lions needed every inch to win. The running game never got going and Detroit had to come back from a 20-0 defecit. Then again, they were playing the Vikings, who had blown halftime leads in their previous two games so it wasn't exactly surprising. Minnesota will eventually win one of these games but they're in a lot of trouble. They have gone from "mediocre" to "Suck for Luck" status after the first three weeks and we may be seeing the end of Donovan McNabb's career.
Denver @ Tennessee - Even though the Titans won the game, they lost the war. WR Kenny Britt, who was having one of the best starts to the year in the league, was lost for the season with ACL and MCL tears in his knee. I can't even begin to quantify just how huge this loss is for the Titans, who really have a shot at the playoffs in the AFC South. Britt made people talk about Matt Hasselbeck in a positive light once again and it's going to make things even tougher for Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer to get the rushing attack going. For Denver's side of things this one was ugly. Kyle Orton threw for only 173 yards and even though he had two touchdowns he also had a pair of picks. Knowshon Moreno was out for the game and Willis McGahee gave them about what they should of expected (22 rushes, 52 yards and a few catches). With another road game against Green Bay next week it should be interesting to see the crowd reactions when the team returns home in Week 5.
Miami @ Cleveland - Coming into this game there were only two things I wanted to see: Colt McCoy for the Browns and Daniel Thomas for the Dolphins. Neither disappointed in a game that was without Peyton Hillis, arguably the best player between the two teams. McCoy orchestrated a game winning drive at the end of the fourth quarter and though his numbers in this game aren't exactly sterling. Thomas, on the other hand, showed why he should be the feature back in Miami and Reggie Bush is probably already unhappy about it. Chad Henne didn't have a bad game for the Fins but they needed more if they were going to win this one and now that they're sitting at 0-3 it's likely they are going to get Tony Sporano fired.
NY Giants @ Philadelphia - This one probably surprised some people. Eli Manning didn't throw an interception and when his team needed him the most he made all of the throws. Michael Vick, on the other hand, had an ugly game and was injured once again. Originally it was said to be a broken right now but as of now it's just a deep bone bruise but it may keep him out of the Eagles' next game. Mike Kafka didn't keep the magic going and threw two interceptions in seven passes, so it's likely we'll see Vince Young soon. This is one that the Giants had to have, though, if for no other reason than to exorcise some demons in Philly. Keep an eye on the DeSean Jackson situation, we all know he's boom or bust but lately it seems the Eagles are phasing him out of the offense a bit. This may be a sign of the coming times for the Eagles as Jackson seeks a long term contract. It also doesn't help that the second best player on the field, LeSean McCoy, is also seeking a new deal and is far more deserving at the moment.
Houston @ New Orleans - Last week I said this one was going to be fun and neither team disappointed. Matt Schaub and Drew Brees went toe-to-toe and neither team really decided to play defense. While everyone expected a big day from Andre Johnson, I don't think anyone could have called James Casey's 100-yard game. For New Orleans, really you can never tell who Brees will go to on a given week. Devery Henderson had only three catches and took a back seat to Jimmy Graham and Lance Moore. Darren Sproles had another big game from a receptions standpoint and the Saints rushing attack never got going. With Arian Foster out once again it was Ben Tate having another good game for the Texans, and I can already hear the dismay of many fantasy owners who are watching their number one overall pick's value tank as he will almost definitely be in a platoon.
New England @ Buffalo - On Sunday I heard many sportscasters say that if Buffalo was ever going to beat Tom Brady and the Patriots that it would be this week. With the Pats missing a ton of key players they would have really been in a bad situation if either Rob Gronkowski or an offensive lineman went down (as there was literally no one behind any of them). To be honest, I have to say that this one wasn't a major surprise. I knew all about Fred Jackson last year and figured he would shred the Pats. Simply put, New England can't stop anyone on defense and when they faced the league's best offense it was a recipe for disaster. Ryan Fitzpatrick had another great game and you have to think that the Bills will pony up and make him the franchise quarterback. I wouldn't be doing my duty if I didn't point out Wes Welker's 16 catch, 217 yard effort and Rob Gronkowski's explosion now that Aaron Hernandez is out. Oh, and that Brady matched his season total in interceptions with this one performance. I'm worried about Chad Ochocinco, though, because I just don't know if he's going to be able to get in sync with Brady.
Baltimore @ St. Louis - The Rams are beat up and the Ravens were coming off of a bad loss to Tennessee. When I looked at the games this week I pointed to this one getting ugly, early, and it did just that. Joe Flacco had a great rebound game and and the Baltimore defense made Sam Bradford look as bad as he has since coming into the league. Even without a win the Rams are only two games out of the NFC West lead but I am really starting to regret my preseason pick because this team has too many injuries. Steven Jackson looked great but after the game got out of hand he was pulled in favor of Cadillac Williams. Torrey Smith looked fantastic for Baltimore but I don't know if I'd rush out and add him on my fantasy team like thousands of Yahoo! players have, but hey, you never know.
NY Jets @ Oakland - This was pegged as an upset by experts and they were right. Darren McFadden may be the best runningback in football right now and you could even make a case for him being the best player. The only question mark left is health, and if he has a full season like this he may even have a case for the MVP. Denarius Moore showed off his "SEC Speed" on a 23 yard rushing touchdowns and the Raiders are looking even better than they were last year. If they hadn't whiffed on Darrius Heyward-Bey and drafted an actual football player this offense could be scary right now. Don't forget they also took a certain big boned quarterback over Calvin Johnson, but I'll stop throwing mud at the Raiders' draft tactics now. For the Jets it seemed like the only person who wanted to win this game was LaDainian Tomlinson. Mark Sanchez broke his nose and Antonio Cromartie has a bruised lung in the losing effort but don't expect Santonio Holmes to be held to one catch for 19 yards again.
Kansas City @ San Diego - The Chiefs are only playing for pride this point and they actually pushed the Chargers. Philip Rivers had an uncharacteristic zero touchdown-two interception performance against the lowly Chiefs, which has to raise some flags in San Diego. It didn't matter though, because Ryan Mathews was all the Chargers needed. Vincent Jackson's encore performance only yielded five catches for 63 yards, but hey, that's 11 points in PPR leagues! For the Chiefs in the post-Jamaal Charles era it was about what you could expect: Thomas Jones had the majority of the carries and Dexter McCluster had an increase in touches. I still will peg Kansas City as the favorite to land Andrew Luck, though, especially if the injury to Brandon Flowers causes him to miss any games.
Green Bay @ Chicago - Good news, Jay Cutler, you were only sacked three times this week. The Bears actually had a shot to get back into the game towards the end, but it went by the wayside thanks to one of the worst calls I have ever seen by a referee. Who on Earth is #21 for the Bears and where was he on that holding call that negated Johnny Knox's touchdown return on an amazing fake by Devin Hester? Matt Forte was the focal point for the Packers defense and they held him to his worst rushing game as a pro (9 carries, 2 yards), though he did his damage out of the backfield (7 catches, 80 yards). It was business as usual for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers and I guess they dezombified Ryan Grant for a game. Greg Jennings had a great game but it was Jermichael Finley who hit pay dirt three times and looked like the matchup nightmare we all knew he would be.
Arizona @ Seattle - I really don't know what to say about this game. I've been ragging on the Seahawks for weeks now and yet they somehow won a football game against a team of NFL players. Tarvaris Jackson had yet another "T-Jax Day in the Office" with 58% of his passes getting completed, 171 yards, and an interception. He also ran for 20 yards and a touchdown but the most amusing part to me is that 109 of his passing yards went to Sidney Rice. Yet somehow, the Seahawks were out-Seahawks'd by the Cardinals who were without Beanie Wells. Kevin Kolb struggled but I won't say he stinks or anything, if they were still putting out Derek Anderson and John Skelton they would been shutout.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay - This may have been the biggest game of Week 3. Bryan and I were split between the Falcons and Bucs coming into the year and this was obviously a much bigger game for Tampa Bay. If Tampa Bay had lost then it was quite likely that their season would have gone down the drain, while many still expect Atlanta to rebound. LeGarrette Blount was held in check but came in and got the yards necessary to sustain the drives at the end of the game. Let's be honest, though, if Atlanta hadn't jumped offsides on that 4th and 1 it's likely this game's outcome would have been different. Aqib Talib was torched by Julio Jones for 6 catches and 115 yards but it was the lack of a rushing attack that doomed the Falcons. Josh Freeman didn't have a great game but the game may have been won with his legs.
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis - You have to give the Colts credit, because this game had all of the makings of a blowout. Early on Mike Wallace reached 100 yards (again) and yet the Colts fought back to take the lead heading into halftime. Kerry Collins suffered a concussion and that may mean more of the Curtis Painter experience, but I don't know if that's the upgrade that Colts fans were looking for. Painter did make a lot of throws to Pierre Garcon and he may actually end up with more targets and receptions than Reggie Wayne in a Curtis Painter-led offense. For the Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall is struggling. One of Pittsburgh's beat writers came out and said that he is "stutter-stepping, spinning and changing direction before he hits the line of scrimmage, often away from where the hole is."I don't know about you but that sounds more like Laurence Maroney than Mendenhall but keep an eye on this going forward. It may have more to do with the offensive line but this could be an ongoing problem.
Washington @ Dallas - I sure hope you like field goals and players slipping all over the place. Washington managed to somehow lose a game where they held their opponent out of the endzone. I guess we also learned just how valuable Miles Austin is to the Dallas offense, because even with Dez Bryant they had trouble moving the ball through the air. Part of that may be Tony Romo but he did do just enough to win the game. Felix Jones looked nearly unstoppable and we may see a lot of him going forward, if the aggravation to his already injured shoulder isn't a big deal, as Dallas tries to keep defenders from taking shots on their quarterback. If they want to get to the playoffs, though, they need their center to stop snapping the ball over Romo's head. As far as the Redskins go, well this is the Rex Grossman we all know. He made a lot of great throws but the turnovers were killer. I don't understand why the Redskins were trying to force the run, though, because Tim Hightower never got it going. I do think that the Redskins will pass the Cowboys in the standings after this weekend, though. Why you may ask? Because Washington gets St. Louis and the Cowboys have to face Detroit. Romo may want to skip that one.
Jacksonville @ Carolina - Cam Newton's marvelous streak of 400 games was snapped at two. Jacksonville held him to only 158 yards through the air but the only touchdown he threw was the one that ended up being the game winner. For the Panthers, the most interesting news to come out following this game was their devotion to DeAngelo Williams. Even though Jonathan Stewart is clearly the better back it seems that the Panthers aren't quite ready to give up on their big money man. Eventually it gets to the point that the better football player gets an increased role so we'll see how Ron Rivera handles this in the coming weeks (or if DeAngelo can turn it around). The Jags trotted Blaine Gabbert out for his first start and it went sort of alright. He completed 57% of his passes and threw for a touchdown but also was picked off and only amassed 139 yards. He wasn't asked to do a whole lot, though, because Maurice Jones-Drew was gashing the Panthers on the ground.
Detroit @ Minnesota - Alright Lions, now you're just making me look like an idiot for ever doubting you. Even though Detroit's defense didn't have its best day the Lions were able to come back and win this game behind Matt Stafford and his arm, along with a few assists from Jason Hanson. Calvin Johnson had his first 100-yard game of the year and the Lions needed every inch to win. The running game never got going and Detroit had to come back from a 20-0 defecit. Then again, they were playing the Vikings, who had blown halftime leads in their previous two games so it wasn't exactly surprising. Minnesota will eventually win one of these games but they're in a lot of trouble. They have gone from "mediocre" to "Suck for Luck" status after the first three weeks and we may be seeing the end of Donovan McNabb's career.
Denver @ Tennessee - Even though the Titans won the game, they lost the war. WR Kenny Britt, who was having one of the best starts to the year in the league, was lost for the season with ACL and MCL tears in his knee. I can't even begin to quantify just how huge this loss is for the Titans, who really have a shot at the playoffs in the AFC South. Britt made people talk about Matt Hasselbeck in a positive light once again and it's going to make things even tougher for Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer to get the rushing attack going. For Denver's side of things this one was ugly. Kyle Orton threw for only 173 yards and even though he had two touchdowns he also had a pair of picks. Knowshon Moreno was out for the game and Willis McGahee gave them about what they should of expected (22 rushes, 52 yards and a few catches). With another road game against Green Bay next week it should be interesting to see the crowd reactions when the team returns home in Week 5.
Miami @ Cleveland - Coming into this game there were only two things I wanted to see: Colt McCoy for the Browns and Daniel Thomas for the Dolphins. Neither disappointed in a game that was without Peyton Hillis, arguably the best player between the two teams. McCoy orchestrated a game winning drive at the end of the fourth quarter and though his numbers in this game aren't exactly sterling. Thomas, on the other hand, showed why he should be the feature back in Miami and Reggie Bush is probably already unhappy about it. Chad Henne didn't have a bad game for the Fins but they needed more if they were going to win this one and now that they're sitting at 0-3 it's likely they are going to get Tony Sporano fired.
NY Giants @ Philadelphia - This one probably surprised some people. Eli Manning didn't throw an interception and when his team needed him the most he made all of the throws. Michael Vick, on the other hand, had an ugly game and was injured once again. Originally it was said to be a broken right now but as of now it's just a deep bone bruise but it may keep him out of the Eagles' next game. Mike Kafka didn't keep the magic going and threw two interceptions in seven passes, so it's likely we'll see Vince Young soon. This is one that the Giants had to have, though, if for no other reason than to exorcise some demons in Philly. Keep an eye on the DeSean Jackson situation, we all know he's boom or bust but lately it seems the Eagles are phasing him out of the offense a bit. This may be a sign of the coming times for the Eagles as Jackson seeks a long term contract. It also doesn't help that the second best player on the field, LeSean McCoy, is also seeking a new deal and is far more deserving at the moment.
Houston @ New Orleans - Last week I said this one was going to be fun and neither team disappointed. Matt Schaub and Drew Brees went toe-to-toe and neither team really decided to play defense. While everyone expected a big day from Andre Johnson, I don't think anyone could have called James Casey's 100-yard game. For New Orleans, really you can never tell who Brees will go to on a given week. Devery Henderson had only three catches and took a back seat to Jimmy Graham and Lance Moore. Darren Sproles had another big game from a receptions standpoint and the Saints rushing attack never got going. With Arian Foster out once again it was Ben Tate having another good game for the Texans, and I can already hear the dismay of many fantasy owners who are watching their number one overall pick's value tank as he will almost definitely be in a platoon.
New England @ Buffalo - On Sunday I heard many sportscasters say that if Buffalo was ever going to beat Tom Brady and the Patriots that it would be this week. With the Pats missing a ton of key players they would have really been in a bad situation if either Rob Gronkowski or an offensive lineman went down (as there was literally no one behind any of them). To be honest, I have to say that this one wasn't a major surprise. I knew all about Fred Jackson last year and figured he would shred the Pats. Simply put, New England can't stop anyone on defense and when they faced the league's best offense it was a recipe for disaster. Ryan Fitzpatrick had another great game and you have to think that the Bills will pony up and make him the franchise quarterback. I wouldn't be doing my duty if I didn't point out Wes Welker's 16 catch, 217 yard effort and Rob Gronkowski's explosion now that Aaron Hernandez is out. Oh, and that Brady matched his season total in interceptions with this one performance. I'm worried about Chad Ochocinco, though, because I just don't know if he's going to be able to get in sync with Brady.
Baltimore @ St. Louis - The Rams are beat up and the Ravens were coming off of a bad loss to Tennessee. When I looked at the games this week I pointed to this one getting ugly, early, and it did just that. Joe Flacco had a great rebound game and and the Baltimore defense made Sam Bradford look as bad as he has since coming into the league. Even without a win the Rams are only two games out of the NFC West lead but I am really starting to regret my preseason pick because this team has too many injuries. Steven Jackson looked great but after the game got out of hand he was pulled in favor of Cadillac Williams. Torrey Smith looked fantastic for Baltimore but I don't know if I'd rush out and add him on my fantasy team like thousands of Yahoo! players have, but hey, you never know.
NY Jets @ Oakland - This was pegged as an upset by experts and they were right. Darren McFadden may be the best runningback in football right now and you could even make a case for him being the best player. The only question mark left is health, and if he has a full season like this he may even have a case for the MVP. Denarius Moore showed off his "SEC Speed" on a 23 yard rushing touchdowns and the Raiders are looking even better than they were last year. If they hadn't whiffed on Darrius Heyward-Bey and drafted an actual football player this offense could be scary right now. Don't forget they also took a certain big boned quarterback over Calvin Johnson, but I'll stop throwing mud at the Raiders' draft tactics now. For the Jets it seemed like the only person who wanted to win this game was LaDainian Tomlinson. Mark Sanchez broke his nose and Antonio Cromartie has a bruised lung in the losing effort but don't expect Santonio Holmes to be held to one catch for 19 yards again.
Kansas City @ San Diego - The Chiefs are only playing for pride this point and they actually pushed the Chargers. Philip Rivers had an uncharacteristic zero touchdown-two interception performance against the lowly Chiefs, which has to raise some flags in San Diego. It didn't matter though, because Ryan Mathews was all the Chargers needed. Vincent Jackson's encore performance only yielded five catches for 63 yards, but hey, that's 11 points in PPR leagues! For the Chiefs in the post-Jamaal Charles era it was about what you could expect: Thomas Jones had the majority of the carries and Dexter McCluster had an increase in touches. I still will peg Kansas City as the favorite to land Andrew Luck, though, especially if the injury to Brandon Flowers causes him to miss any games.
Green Bay @ Chicago - Good news, Jay Cutler, you were only sacked three times this week. The Bears actually had a shot to get back into the game towards the end, but it went by the wayside thanks to one of the worst calls I have ever seen by a referee. Who on Earth is #21 for the Bears and where was he on that holding call that negated Johnny Knox's touchdown return on an amazing fake by Devin Hester? Matt Forte was the focal point for the Packers defense and they held him to his worst rushing game as a pro (9 carries, 2 yards), though he did his damage out of the backfield (7 catches, 80 yards). It was business as usual for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers and I guess they dezombified Ryan Grant for a game. Greg Jennings had a great game but it was Jermichael Finley who hit pay dirt three times and looked like the matchup nightmare we all knew he would be.
Arizona @ Seattle - I really don't know what to say about this game. I've been ragging on the Seahawks for weeks now and yet they somehow won a football game against a team of NFL players. Tarvaris Jackson had yet another "T-Jax Day in the Office" with 58% of his passes getting completed, 171 yards, and an interception. He also ran for 20 yards and a touchdown but the most amusing part to me is that 109 of his passing yards went to Sidney Rice. Yet somehow, the Seahawks were out-Seahawks'd by the Cardinals who were without Beanie Wells. Kevin Kolb struggled but I won't say he stinks or anything, if they were still putting out Derek Anderson and John Skelton they would been shutout.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay - This may have been the biggest game of Week 3. Bryan and I were split between the Falcons and Bucs coming into the year and this was obviously a much bigger game for Tampa Bay. If Tampa Bay had lost then it was quite likely that their season would have gone down the drain, while many still expect Atlanta to rebound. LeGarrette Blount was held in check but came in and got the yards necessary to sustain the drives at the end of the game. Let's be honest, though, if Atlanta hadn't jumped offsides on that 4th and 1 it's likely this game's outcome would have been different. Aqib Talib was torched by Julio Jones for 6 catches and 115 yards but it was the lack of a rushing attack that doomed the Falcons. Josh Freeman didn't have a great game but the game may have been won with his legs.
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis - You have to give the Colts credit, because this game had all of the makings of a blowout. Early on Mike Wallace reached 100 yards (again) and yet the Colts fought back to take the lead heading into halftime. Kerry Collins suffered a concussion and that may mean more of the Curtis Painter experience, but I don't know if that's the upgrade that Colts fans were looking for. Painter did make a lot of throws to Pierre Garcon and he may actually end up with more targets and receptions than Reggie Wayne in a Curtis Painter-led offense. For the Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall is struggling. One of Pittsburgh's beat writers came out and said that he is "stutter-stepping, spinning and changing direction before he hits the line of scrimmage, often away from where the hole is."I don't know about you but that sounds more like Laurence Maroney than Mendenhall but keep an eye on this going forward. It may have more to do with the offensive line but this could be an ongoing problem.
Washington @ Dallas - I sure hope you like field goals and players slipping all over the place. Washington managed to somehow lose a game where they held their opponent out of the endzone. I guess we also learned just how valuable Miles Austin is to the Dallas offense, because even with Dez Bryant they had trouble moving the ball through the air. Part of that may be Tony Romo but he did do just enough to win the game. Felix Jones looked nearly unstoppable and we may see a lot of him going forward, if the aggravation to his already injured shoulder isn't a big deal, as Dallas tries to keep defenders from taking shots on their quarterback. If they want to get to the playoffs, though, they need their center to stop snapping the ball over Romo's head. As far as the Redskins go, well this is the Rex Grossman we all know. He made a lot of great throws but the turnovers were killer. I don't understand why the Redskins were trying to force the run, though, because Tim Hightower never got it going. I do think that the Redskins will pass the Cowboys in the standings after this weekend, though. Why you may ask? Because Washington gets St. Louis and the Cowboys have to face Detroit. Romo may want to skip that one.
9/21/11
Debris Caution: Sylvania 300
Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.
This week the Chase takes us to New Hampshire for the second race in NASCAR's "playoffs." This is a race that can become a launching pad for a championship run or end one's chances dead in their tracks. There is one driver who desperately needs a shot in the arm to stay afloat and that is Denny Hamlin, who is currently 41 points behind Kevin Harvick. Hamlin came in 31st last week and was never really competitive all day. Hamlin is actually one of the best at New Hampshire, though, and his average finish of 7.2 in 11 races puts him at the top for active drivers. He has eight top-10s in only 11 starts and one win, and because of that he must be thanking his lucky stars to see this track on the schedule. Given his season long struggles he's a lot like Tony Stewart last week, it would be an upset to see him win but this may be a statement race for the #11 team as they hope to rebound.
If there's a driver that personifies consistency at New Hampshire, though, it has to be Jimmie Johnson. Last week he had a car capable of winning the race and was near the front all day until he ran out of fuel on the final lap and ended up with a "disappointing" tenth place finish. At NHMS, though, he is second only to Hamlin in average finish (9.6) and has 13 top-10s in 19 career starts. Seven of those were top-5 finishes and three of those were wins. Right now Jimmie is sitting in eighth, 16 points behind Kevin Harvick and this is a track where he can make up a lot of ground. I expect him to be near the front all day and potentially win the race but he isn't my pick to win.
Tony Stewart and teammate Ryan Newman will have the cars to beat this weekend. Stewart couldn't have picked a better time to win his first race of the year (as I said, not a shocker) and these two drivers are fifth and sixth in average finish (Newman is at 12.4 and Stewart at 13.3). Newman is tied with Johnson with the most top-10s in the past ten years (13) and has won three times at the track (tying him with Johnson and another driver we're going to touch on in a second). Stewart, on the other hand, has ten top-10s of his own and has won once, but he leads all active drivers with nine top-10s in the past ten years. This team currently carries the momentum and Newman actually won the race at New Hampshire in June (Stewart came in second). I think that these two, along with Johnson, have the best chances of winning this weekend but I am going to ride the hot hand and go with Tony Stewart to win back-to-back and put himself in the catbird seat for the Chase.
The guy I was mentioning earlier with three wins? That would be none other than Kurt Busch. He is the other drive who has won at this track three times in the past ten years and he is fourth in average finish (11.6). His 11 top-10s in his past 19 races at the track show that he is going to be a strong contender at this track and he could just as easily win once here in NHMS once again. Speaking of contenders, I couldn't skip over my championship pick, Jeff Gordon. Gordon has six top-5s (eight top-10s) in his past 19 races but no wins. His average finish of 11.5 puts him third, behind Hamlin and Johnson and just above Kurt Busch. Gordon needs a solid effort to get back into the thick of things after what happened last week. Keep an eye on the #24, if he wants to win number five then he needs to make a statement.
Taking a look at the other Chase contenders, you'll see all sorts of things. Carl Edwards only has two top-5s (which account for his only top-10s) in 14 starts. Kevin Harvick has won here before and has ten top-10s in 19 starts. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has six top-5s in his past 19 starts but no wins at the track. Matt Kenseth has 11 top-10s for his career at the track but his average finish of 14.4 puts him in a tie with Carl Edwards. Kyle Busch seems to be the epitome of boom-or-bust, he only has 13 career starts at the track but six of them have gone for top-10s (four top-5s and a win) but his average finish of 16.3 is one of the lowest of Chase qualified drivers. Finally, there's Brad Keselowski, who as we've learned you can't count out anywhere and you may as well ignore his career stats. In only four races at New Hampshire he has one top-10s and an average finish of 21.2.
So, of the drivers who are ineligible for the Chase, who has the best shot to pull an upset? Well, Clint Bowyer has won at this track twice and he could be racing for future employment. However, his average finish of 16.2 shows that he'll either win the race or be a total bust. Instead, I'm going to take a bit of a reach and go with Joey Logano, another former winner. Logano has three top-10s in six career starts and an average finish of 17.0 is lowered by the fact that he has one DNF. Hamlin is one of the best at this track and I can't say enough for how important it is for a young driver to learn from a successful teammate. Don't be surprised if he's near the front and has a quiet day while everyone is paying attention to the guys in the Chase.
9/20/11
Week 3 NCAA Football Roundup
March Madness is almost here, right?: The Iowa State Cyclones have overcome all odds and started off 3-0. Huskies fans are already lined up at the box office for basketball tickets. QB Steele Jantz didn't have a very good game, throwing 3 picks to his 1 TD, but he led the final TD drive and has an awesome name, so all is forgiven. On the other side, Connecticut had the ball and was driving at the end of the game, but turned the ball over on downs at the Iowa State 37 with under 1:30 left. If you're reading this and live in Connecticut, you should file an application for the position of QB at UConn, because it sure couldn't hurt right now. Connecticut's total passing stats on the season: 38/86 (44.2% Completions), 2 TDs, 5 INTs.
In other basketball school news, Kansas got absolutely run off the field by Georgia Tech on Saturday, losing to the tune of 66-24. Georgia Tech's triple option offense completely toyed with Kansas' defense, rushing for 604 yards on merely 50 carries (12.1 yards per carry!). The first carry of the game by Georgia Tech RB Orwin Smith said all we needed to know about what was to be expected of the Jayhawks defense:
Georgia Tech scored on the first play of their possession 3 times, and no Georgia Tech player toted the rock more than 9 times. Orwin Smith had 265 yards on 5 rushes and 2 receptions, and 3 TDs. Remember how I said Kansas would be awful? This is the proof.
The Roof is on Fire: Auburn defensive coordinator Ted Roof should probably get some treatment for those first-degree burns that Utah State, Mississippi State and Clemson laid on him. Utah State and Mississippi State both had the chance to win the game with a last-second drive the first two weeks after dismantling Auburn's defense, and Clemson actually capitalized on their offensive success, putting up 624 yards and holding Auburn to 24 points. QB Tajh Boyd made everyone forget about former QB, now Colorado Rockies prospect Kyle Parker, going 30/42 for 386 yards and 4 TDs. He had an especially encouraging rapport with freshman 5-star WR Sammy Watkins, who had 10 catches for 155 yards and 2 TDs, as well as 7 rushes for 44 yards. Watkins is clearly going to be the centerpiece of this offense, and he was phenomenal against the Auburn Tigers.
On the other side, Michael Dyer was his usual self (16 rushes, 151 yards, 2 TDs), and Barrett Trotter was extremely mediocre (12/25, 198 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Auburn can't win with this formula, and the wheels finally fell off. Auburn has allowed more than 3 times as many yards as Alabama this season (Auburn: 1,603 yards, Alabama: 510 yards).Their luck has disappeared, so until they sure up their defense, this is a 7-5 caliber team.
Vanderbilt is really 3-0. Seriously, it's true: Vanderbilt's students may need to put down the textbooks and come to the football games now, because there's actually a decent product on the field. Vandy is 3-0 after completely dominating Ole Miss 30-7. Vandy forced 5 turnovers and held Ole Miss to 234 total yards. In turn, Vanderbilt rushed for 281 yards and QB Larry Smith added on an efficient day in the passing game, albeit unspectacular (13/20, 103 yards). RB Zac Stacy accounted for 160 of the rushing yards on a mere 11 carries. Vandy actually has 10 interceptions on the year already and is allowing a mere 14 points per game. Don't expect this undefeated streak to continue however. The Commodores are 10th in PPG in the SEC against their cupcake schedule (33 PPG), 10th in yards per game in the SEC (318, even behind LSU), and they're only converting 24% of their third downs this season. The train should come off the tracks pretty soon here, but they at least have a shot at a bowl game, which for Vanderbilt is exciting.
God is finally on Notre Dame's side: Notre Dame systematically dominated MSU this weekend 31-13. Michigan State pulled the score to 14-10 early in the 2nd quarter and Notre Dame answered quickly with two touchdowns to go up 28-10 and put the Spartans too far behind to recover. The Irish defense was outstanding against the run, taking away Michigan State's biggest weapons Le'Veon Bell and Edwin Baker and holding them to 53 yards on 17 carries. Kirk Cousins had to attempt 53 passes, and while he totaled 329 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, he was pretty ineffective if the Irish double-covered WR B.J. Cunningham. Taking away Cunningham's 12 catches for 158 yards, Cousins had about 40 attempts for 179 yards, which is awful. The secondary is worrisome when you can't even stop the one guy you need to, but at the same time, they did a good job limiting Cousins outside of throwing to Cunningham.
On the flipside, the Irish offense was fairly mediocre. The Irish turned it over by fumbling on their second drive and Tommy Rees throwing his lone interception on their third drive, and the game looked set up to be another letdown for the Irish, but they recovered. Jonas Gray and Cierre Wood were effective on the ground rushing 26 times for 126 yards, but the Notre Dame offense was held largely in check. They had 3 long touchdown drives, and outside that, had literally no success on offense (239 of their 275 total yards were on those 3 drives). While they at least capitalized on their minimal red zone opportunities, the offense didn't look in sync, and could be a concern for the Irish going forward. Tommy Rees was more efficient this week, but still didn't look great, and may not be the quarterback to lead them to relevance again.
By land or sea, Navy's pretty good: We can pretty much always expect the same season from Navy. About an 8-4 record, a bowl win, and a couple near upsets against big-time BCS teams. They quite nearly pulled off an upset against the South Carolina Gamecocks on Saturday, who pulled off a 24-21 win. Unfortunately for the Midshipmen, Marcus Lattimore had a different idea. He singlehandedly carried the Gamecocks to a victory, toting the rock 37 times for an unbelievable 246 yards and 3 TDs. Stephen Garcia added on 204 yards passing in a very efficient effort. He did throw a pick but that was the lone South Carolina turnover, so they could live with it. Navy's running game surprisingly was literally equally effective to South Carolina's, as both teams averaged 5.8 yards per carry. Navy led the game three times, including at the start of the fourth quarter, but couldn't mount one last touchdown drive. Very impressive effort by Navy, and depending on their schedule, they may have one more major upset effort in them.
Good Effort!
- Pittsburgh led Iowa 27-10 with 12:49 left in the game, but Iowa responded with the biggest comeback in school history to win 31-27. Hawkeyes QB James Vandenberg won Big Ten player of the week honors.
- Temple led Penn State late in the game, but Penn State took a 14-10 lead with 3:06 left in the fourth quarter.
- Duke beat a real, live football team this week that isn't in Division I-AA! Duke beat Boston College 20-19.
- Minnesota beat a real, live football team too, beating Miami (OH) 29-23 by putting up 13 points in the fourth quarter.
- Washington put up 38 points against the vaunted Nebraska defense, but still lost 51-38.
- North Dakota led Fresno State 22-21 entering the fourth quarter, but Fresno State scored with 10:28 left in the game to win 27-22.
Participation Awards!
- While there was worse this week, Toledo got whooped on national TV by Boise State 40-15 this week, so they get a mention.
- Purdue beat SE Missouri State 59-0. Good thing Purdue got their offense out of the way this week, they face Notre Dame in their next game.
- Georgia put a 59-0 beatdown on Coastal Carolina, holding them to 112 total yards.
- Wisconsin took down Northern Illinois 49-7, and Russell Wilson had his first 300+ yard passing game as a Badger.
- Oregon beat the real Missouri State 56-7, putting up 681 yards of offense, highlighted by LaMichael James' 204 yards and 3 TDs on 12 carries.
- Baylor destroyed Stephen F. Austin 48-0. Robert Griffin III went 20/22 for 265 yards and 3 TDs along with 78 rushing yards and is totally still winning that September Heisman.
In other basketball school news, Kansas got absolutely run off the field by Georgia Tech on Saturday, losing to the tune of 66-24. Georgia Tech's triple option offense completely toyed with Kansas' defense, rushing for 604 yards on merely 50 carries (12.1 yards per carry!). The first carry of the game by Georgia Tech RB Orwin Smith said all we needed to know about what was to be expected of the Jayhawks defense:
The Roof is on Fire: Auburn defensive coordinator Ted Roof should probably get some treatment for those first-degree burns that Utah State, Mississippi State and Clemson laid on him. Utah State and Mississippi State both had the chance to win the game with a last-second drive the first two weeks after dismantling Auburn's defense, and Clemson actually capitalized on their offensive success, putting up 624 yards and holding Auburn to 24 points. QB Tajh Boyd made everyone forget about former QB, now Colorado Rockies prospect Kyle Parker, going 30/42 for 386 yards and 4 TDs. He had an especially encouraging rapport with freshman 5-star WR Sammy Watkins, who had 10 catches for 155 yards and 2 TDs, as well as 7 rushes for 44 yards. Watkins is clearly going to be the centerpiece of this offense, and he was phenomenal against the Auburn Tigers.
On the other side, Michael Dyer was his usual self (16 rushes, 151 yards, 2 TDs), and Barrett Trotter was extremely mediocre (12/25, 198 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Auburn can't win with this formula, and the wheels finally fell off. Auburn has allowed more than 3 times as many yards as Alabama this season (Auburn: 1,603 yards, Alabama: 510 yards).Their luck has disappeared, so until they sure up their defense, this is a 7-5 caliber team.
Vanderbilt is really 3-0. Seriously, it's true: Vanderbilt's students may need to put down the textbooks and come to the football games now, because there's actually a decent product on the field. Vandy is 3-0 after completely dominating Ole Miss 30-7. Vandy forced 5 turnovers and held Ole Miss to 234 total yards. In turn, Vanderbilt rushed for 281 yards and QB Larry Smith added on an efficient day in the passing game, albeit unspectacular (13/20, 103 yards). RB Zac Stacy accounted for 160 of the rushing yards on a mere 11 carries. Vandy actually has 10 interceptions on the year already and is allowing a mere 14 points per game. Don't expect this undefeated streak to continue however. The Commodores are 10th in PPG in the SEC against their cupcake schedule (33 PPG), 10th in yards per game in the SEC (318, even behind LSU), and they're only converting 24% of their third downs this season. The train should come off the tracks pretty soon here, but they at least have a shot at a bowl game, which for Vanderbilt is exciting.
God is finally on Notre Dame's side: Notre Dame systematically dominated MSU this weekend 31-13. Michigan State pulled the score to 14-10 early in the 2nd quarter and Notre Dame answered quickly with two touchdowns to go up 28-10 and put the Spartans too far behind to recover. The Irish defense was outstanding against the run, taking away Michigan State's biggest weapons Le'Veon Bell and Edwin Baker and holding them to 53 yards on 17 carries. Kirk Cousins had to attempt 53 passes, and while he totaled 329 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, he was pretty ineffective if the Irish double-covered WR B.J. Cunningham. Taking away Cunningham's 12 catches for 158 yards, Cousins had about 40 attempts for 179 yards, which is awful. The secondary is worrisome when you can't even stop the one guy you need to, but at the same time, they did a good job limiting Cousins outside of throwing to Cunningham.
On the flipside, the Irish offense was fairly mediocre. The Irish turned it over by fumbling on their second drive and Tommy Rees throwing his lone interception on their third drive, and the game looked set up to be another letdown for the Irish, but they recovered. Jonas Gray and Cierre Wood were effective on the ground rushing 26 times for 126 yards, but the Notre Dame offense was held largely in check. They had 3 long touchdown drives, and outside that, had literally no success on offense (239 of their 275 total yards were on those 3 drives). While they at least capitalized on their minimal red zone opportunities, the offense didn't look in sync, and could be a concern for the Irish going forward. Tommy Rees was more efficient this week, but still didn't look great, and may not be the quarterback to lead them to relevance again.
By land or sea, Navy's pretty good: We can pretty much always expect the same season from Navy. About an 8-4 record, a bowl win, and a couple near upsets against big-time BCS teams. They quite nearly pulled off an upset against the South Carolina Gamecocks on Saturday, who pulled off a 24-21 win. Unfortunately for the Midshipmen, Marcus Lattimore had a different idea. He singlehandedly carried the Gamecocks to a victory, toting the rock 37 times for an unbelievable 246 yards and 3 TDs. Stephen Garcia added on 204 yards passing in a very efficient effort. He did throw a pick but that was the lone South Carolina turnover, so they could live with it. Navy's running game surprisingly was literally equally effective to South Carolina's, as both teams averaged 5.8 yards per carry. Navy led the game three times, including at the start of the fourth quarter, but couldn't mount one last touchdown drive. Very impressive effort by Navy, and depending on their schedule, they may have one more major upset effort in them.
- Pittsburgh led Iowa 27-10 with 12:49 left in the game, but Iowa responded with the biggest comeback in school history to win 31-27. Hawkeyes QB James Vandenberg won Big Ten player of the week honors.
- Temple led Penn State late in the game, but Penn State took a 14-10 lead with 3:06 left in the fourth quarter.
- Duke beat a real, live football team this week that isn't in Division I-AA! Duke beat Boston College 20-19.
- Minnesota beat a real, live football team too, beating Miami (OH) 29-23 by putting up 13 points in the fourth quarter.
- Washington put up 38 points against the vaunted Nebraska defense, but still lost 51-38.
- North Dakota led Fresno State 22-21 entering the fourth quarter, but Fresno State scored with 10:28 left in the game to win 27-22.
- While there was worse this week, Toledo got whooped on national TV by Boise State 40-15 this week, so they get a mention.
- Purdue beat SE Missouri State 59-0. Good thing Purdue got their offense out of the way this week, they face Notre Dame in their next game.
- Georgia put a 59-0 beatdown on Coastal Carolina, holding them to 112 total yards.
- Wisconsin took down Northern Illinois 49-7, and Russell Wilson had his first 300+ yard passing game as a Badger.
- Oregon beat the real Missouri State 56-7, putting up 681 yards of offense, highlighted by LaMichael James' 204 yards and 3 TDs on 12 carries.
- Baylor destroyed Stephen F. Austin 48-0. Robert Griffin III went 20/22 for 265 yards and 3 TDs along with 78 rushing yards and is totally still winning that September Heisman.
Week 2 NFL Quick Hits
Oakland @ Buffalo - It's nice that the Bills are 2-0 at this point. Ryan Fitzpatrick looks like a legitimate NFL quarterback and Buffalo knows that they may have to pay up soon. Fred Jackson rushed for another 100 yards and the Bills offense looked as though they have made huge strides. Not everything was great, though, and cornerback Leodis McKelvin got absolutely abused by rookie Denarius Moore. In a game where the Raiders were missing Darius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford, Louis Murphy, and Kevin Boss it is really a marvel that they held their own in this game. The Bills kept Darren McFadden in check (20 rushes, 72 yards, one fumble) and Marcell Dareus is looking like he will be a terror in the league (though he only had four uneventful tackles he did clog the middle all day).
Kansas City @ Detroit - This game gave us the biggest news of the young season: Jamaal Charles is done for the year with a torn ACL. Charles is one of the more underrated running backs in the NFL (unless you play fantasy football it's likely that you only recognize him from SportsCenter highlights) and it is an absolutely devastating loss for Kansas City. Without Charles and Eric Berry on the defensive side this team is absolutely in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Keep an eye on their week 5 in Indianapolis, the loser of that game may be Andrew Luck's future home. What can I really say about Detroit? No other team, including my Patriots, has looked as complete and and intimidating as the Lions. Matt Stafford got through another game with his health and Calvin Johnson was just an unfair matchup for Brandon Flowers (6'5'', 236 lbs. vs 5'9'' 187 lbs.). All of the preseason hype that the Lions had generated seems to be justified and if they keep this up they may even keep pace with Green Bay for the NFC North.
Chicago @ New Orleans - I watched this game live and man, was it ugly. Jay Cutler was rushed, hit, and sacked on what seemed to be every play, especially in the fourth quarter. By the end it seemed like the Bears offense had just given up, Cutler couldn't even take a step back without having three or four Saints on or around him. Matt Forte looked great, again, and if the Bears are dumb enough to let him walk then they deserve the years of offensive ineptitude that will follow. The Saints rebounded this week and Drew Brees looked fantastic, ho-hum. Two things for New Orleans' offense caught my eye, though: the first was just how fast Devery Henderson still is. He torched the Bears secondary on his 79 yard touchdown reception and with Colston out he may be the best receiver the Saints have. Second, Jiimmy Graham is a monster and a tough matchup but I honestly don't know if I saw him break a single tackle. Sure, he ran over some guys, but the first contact always seemed to bring him down, which is strange for someone who is 6'6'' and 260 lbs.
Cleveland @ Indianapolis - I joked with Bryan earlier in the week that it would be an accomplishment if Kerry Collins broke 200 yards this week and then he went out and threw for 191. It's not funny when you actually go out and prove me right, Kerry. I touched on the "Suck for Luck" Bowl in week five but that seems to be all the Colts will have to play for. Dallas Clark is a fantastic pass catcher but now that he has been forced into a blocking role it highlights just how poor he is in protection. Indy is an absolute tire fire right now and I'll admit that it's going to be a struggle to talk about them over the next few weeks. On the flip side, Cleveland doesn't look too bad. Colt McCoy just seems to always do enough to win the game or Peyton Hillis looked a lot better this week. I do have to question some of the playcalling, though, particularly the fake to Hillis that ended up as a run with Owen Marecic. I get it, it's a trick play, but it's not cute when you actually give the ball to the inferior player. Then again, they could have run Marecic about 50 times and stayed in the game if they didn't win it outright.
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota - The Bucs were down late in this game and on the verge of going 0-2, thus making my preseason Super Bowl pick all but go down the crapper. Adrian Peterson ran all over the Tampa Bay defense to the tune of 120 yards and two touchdowns. Donovan McNabb played okay but the Bucs just kept chipping away and found themselves back into the game. LeGarrette Blount was completely ineffective in the first half and with all of the dumpoffs to Earnest Graham it seemed that he was going to finish the day with another ugly statline (five carries for four yards with a long of seven, it was as though he was running backwards). He finished the day with only 71 yards but the two touchdowns proved to be the difference and kudos to Raheem Morris for not yanking him after falling behind 17 - 0. Josh Freeman did all of the heavy lifting, though, by getting his team into scoring position and throwing a beautiful pass to Arrelious Benn. They still have a ways to go, though.
Green Bay @ Carolina - This one was a lot of fun. For the first half it seemed as though Cam Newton was going to light up the scoreboard and the Panthers defense had the Packers confused. Even though the Pack came back and won it seemed like Aaron Rodgers and his receivers were a bit off on timing. However, Rodgers brought his team back and didn't make any mistakes. Newton threw three interceptions, including two to Charles Woodson, but once again he had over 400 yards and the Panthers seem to have morphed into a high octane passing offense (DeAngelo Williams only had five carries and Jonathan Stewart had six, while Newton ran 10 times). The Packers proved why they are the reigning champs but I have to say that the Panthers were the far more exciting team on Sunday and should continue to be a fun watch throughout the year.
Seattle @ Pittsburgh - Yuck. Everyone saw this one coming, considering that the Steelers were in a bad mood after getting blown out by the Ravens last week. I'll keep the Seahawks side brief because there isn't a whole lot to say. Tarvaris Jackson completed 69% of his passes (20/29) for 159 yards. T-Jax is a running joke between Bryan and I and once again it was just another Sunday for the Seattle starter. Marshawn Lynch averaged 1.8 yards per carry but that is about what you can expect with the Seahawks' O-Line against the Steelers. So now let's talk about the team from this game that actually belongs in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger was much better and his injury doesn't seem to be serious. Big Ben is great, but I think Mike Wallace made him look a bit better in this game. Wallace hauled in eight passes for 126 yards and a touchdown and did his best Denarius Moore impersonation. As for the Steelers defense, well, did you expect anything less?
Baltimore @ Tennessee - If I had told you that Chris Johnson would run the ball 24 times for 53 yards and get booed by his hometown crowd and the Titans would win, you probably would have laughed at me. That's exactly what happened, though, and the main reason for that was Kenny Britt. He had nine catches for 135 yards and a very physical touchdown catch. Javon Ringer had a score but don't expect him to take Johnson's job, Ray Lewis said in an interview after the game that Baltimore's gameplay was to stop #28. If Matt Hasselbeck can have some more games like this one throughout the year then the Titans may be able to stay close to the Houston Texans. As for the Ravens, this seems like a typical Baltimore game. After getting revved up and dismantling Pittsburgh last week they came out flat and struggled just to move the ball on offense. Joe Flacco only completed 47% of his passes and the running game never got going.
Arizona @ Washington - This is a game that the Redskins dominated. Time of possession wasn't close (38:30 to 21:30), total yardage was a blowout (455 to 324), but somehow the Cardinals only lost by one. Larry Fitzgerald exploded in the game, having seven catches for 133 yards including a 73-yard touchdown. Basically all that Kevin Kolb has to do is get the ball to Fitz and good things will happen, including almost winning a game that they had no business being in. Beanie Wells rushed 14 times for 93 yards and Tim Hightower rushed 20 times for 96 yards in a showdown of last year's Arizona backfield. Keep an eye on Roy Helu for Washington, he rushed 10 times for 74 yards.
Jacksonville @ NY Jets - This one was up there with the Pittsburgh/Seattle game in terms of ugliness. Luke McCown had a 1.8 QB rating and looked downright awful. The Jags got a glimpse into the future with Blaine Gabbert coming in relief (well, the future is this weekend) and completing five of his six passes in garbage time. Even with Maurice Jones-Drew I doubt the Jags will be anything more than cellar dwellers in the AFC South (someone has to keep Indy company). The big news on the Jets' side was the injury to Nick Mangold, who is out 2-3 weeks "at a minimum" with a high right ankle sprain. It may even be longer than that and it's a major hit for a team that is struggling to establish its running game. Then again, how much of that is the line and how much of it is Shonn Greene? Greene ran the ball 16 times for 49 yards and so far this year he has looked more "cow" than "bell cow."
Kansas City @ Detroit - This game gave us the biggest news of the young season: Jamaal Charles is done for the year with a torn ACL. Charles is one of the more underrated running backs in the NFL (unless you play fantasy football it's likely that you only recognize him from SportsCenter highlights) and it is an absolutely devastating loss for Kansas City. Without Charles and Eric Berry on the defensive side this team is absolutely in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Keep an eye on their week 5 in Indianapolis, the loser of that game may be Andrew Luck's future home. What can I really say about Detroit? No other team, including my Patriots, has looked as complete and and intimidating as the Lions. Matt Stafford got through another game with his health and Calvin Johnson was just an unfair matchup for Brandon Flowers (6'5'', 236 lbs. vs 5'9'' 187 lbs.). All of the preseason hype that the Lions had generated seems to be justified and if they keep this up they may even keep pace with Green Bay for the NFC North.
Chicago @ New Orleans - I watched this game live and man, was it ugly. Jay Cutler was rushed, hit, and sacked on what seemed to be every play, especially in the fourth quarter. By the end it seemed like the Bears offense had just given up, Cutler couldn't even take a step back without having three or four Saints on or around him. Matt Forte looked great, again, and if the Bears are dumb enough to let him walk then they deserve the years of offensive ineptitude that will follow. The Saints rebounded this week and Drew Brees looked fantastic, ho-hum. Two things for New Orleans' offense caught my eye, though: the first was just how fast Devery Henderson still is. He torched the Bears secondary on his 79 yard touchdown reception and with Colston out he may be the best receiver the Saints have. Second, Jiimmy Graham is a monster and a tough matchup but I honestly don't know if I saw him break a single tackle. Sure, he ran over some guys, but the first contact always seemed to bring him down, which is strange for someone who is 6'6'' and 260 lbs.
Cleveland @ Indianapolis - I joked with Bryan earlier in the week that it would be an accomplishment if Kerry Collins broke 200 yards this week and then he went out and threw for 191. It's not funny when you actually go out and prove me right, Kerry. I touched on the "Suck for Luck" Bowl in week five but that seems to be all the Colts will have to play for. Dallas Clark is a fantastic pass catcher but now that he has been forced into a blocking role it highlights just how poor he is in protection. Indy is an absolute tire fire right now and I'll admit that it's going to be a struggle to talk about them over the next few weeks. On the flip side, Cleveland doesn't look too bad. Colt McCoy just seems to always do enough to win the game or Peyton Hillis looked a lot better this week. I do have to question some of the playcalling, though, particularly the fake to Hillis that ended up as a run with Owen Marecic. I get it, it's a trick play, but it's not cute when you actually give the ball to the inferior player. Then again, they could have run Marecic about 50 times and stayed in the game if they didn't win it outright.
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota - The Bucs were down late in this game and on the verge of going 0-2, thus making my preseason Super Bowl pick all but go down the crapper. Adrian Peterson ran all over the Tampa Bay defense to the tune of 120 yards and two touchdowns. Donovan McNabb played okay but the Bucs just kept chipping away and found themselves back into the game. LeGarrette Blount was completely ineffective in the first half and with all of the dumpoffs to Earnest Graham it seemed that he was going to finish the day with another ugly statline (five carries for four yards with a long of seven, it was as though he was running backwards). He finished the day with only 71 yards but the two touchdowns proved to be the difference and kudos to Raheem Morris for not yanking him after falling behind 17 - 0. Josh Freeman did all of the heavy lifting, though, by getting his team into scoring position and throwing a beautiful pass to Arrelious Benn. They still have a ways to go, though.
Green Bay @ Carolina - This one was a lot of fun. For the first half it seemed as though Cam Newton was going to light up the scoreboard and the Panthers defense had the Packers confused. Even though the Pack came back and won it seemed like Aaron Rodgers and his receivers were a bit off on timing. However, Rodgers brought his team back and didn't make any mistakes. Newton threw three interceptions, including two to Charles Woodson, but once again he had over 400 yards and the Panthers seem to have morphed into a high octane passing offense (DeAngelo Williams only had five carries and Jonathan Stewart had six, while Newton ran 10 times). The Packers proved why they are the reigning champs but I have to say that the Panthers were the far more exciting team on Sunday and should continue to be a fun watch throughout the year.
Seattle @ Pittsburgh - Yuck. Everyone saw this one coming, considering that the Steelers were in a bad mood after getting blown out by the Ravens last week. I'll keep the Seahawks side brief because there isn't a whole lot to say. Tarvaris Jackson completed 69% of his passes (20/29) for 159 yards. T-Jax is a running joke between Bryan and I and once again it was just another Sunday for the Seattle starter. Marshawn Lynch averaged 1.8 yards per carry but that is about what you can expect with the Seahawks' O-Line against the Steelers. So now let's talk about the team from this game that actually belongs in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger was much better and his injury doesn't seem to be serious. Big Ben is great, but I think Mike Wallace made him look a bit better in this game. Wallace hauled in eight passes for 126 yards and a touchdown and did his best Denarius Moore impersonation. As for the Steelers defense, well, did you expect anything less?
Baltimore @ Tennessee - If I had told you that Chris Johnson would run the ball 24 times for 53 yards and get booed by his hometown crowd and the Titans would win, you probably would have laughed at me. That's exactly what happened, though, and the main reason for that was Kenny Britt. He had nine catches for 135 yards and a very physical touchdown catch. Javon Ringer had a score but don't expect him to take Johnson's job, Ray Lewis said in an interview after the game that Baltimore's gameplay was to stop #28. If Matt Hasselbeck can have some more games like this one throughout the year then the Titans may be able to stay close to the Houston Texans. As for the Ravens, this seems like a typical Baltimore game. After getting revved up and dismantling Pittsburgh last week they came out flat and struggled just to move the ball on offense. Joe Flacco only completed 47% of his passes and the running game never got going.
Arizona @ Washington - This is a game that the Redskins dominated. Time of possession wasn't close (38:30 to 21:30), total yardage was a blowout (455 to 324), but somehow the Cardinals only lost by one. Larry Fitzgerald exploded in the game, having seven catches for 133 yards including a 73-yard touchdown. Basically all that Kevin Kolb has to do is get the ball to Fitz and good things will happen, including almost winning a game that they had no business being in. Beanie Wells rushed 14 times for 93 yards and Tim Hightower rushed 20 times for 96 yards in a showdown of last year's Arizona backfield. Keep an eye on Roy Helu for Washington, he rushed 10 times for 74 yards.
Jacksonville @ NY Jets - This one was up there with the Pittsburgh/Seattle game in terms of ugliness. Luke McCown had a 1.8 QB rating and looked downright awful. The Jags got a glimpse into the future with Blaine Gabbert coming in relief (well, the future is this weekend) and completing five of his six passes in garbage time. Even with Maurice Jones-Drew I doubt the Jags will be anything more than cellar dwellers in the AFC South (someone has to keep Indy company). The big news on the Jets' side was the injury to Nick Mangold, who is out 2-3 weeks "at a minimum" with a high right ankle sprain. It may even be longer than that and it's a major hit for a team that is struggling to establish its running game. Then again, how much of that is the line and how much of it is Shonn Greene? Greene ran the ball 16 times for 49 yards and so far this year he has looked more "cow" than "bell cow."
9/15/11
Week 3 NCAA Football Preview and Poll
Week 2 brought us a lot of exciting games, namely the Michigan-Notre Dame thriller, South Carolina and Georgia, Auburn stuffing Mississippi State at the goal line as time expired, and Arizona State topping Missouri in overtime. The games that were expected to be exciting, largely were. This week has the same feel as Week 2; there are a couple marquee matchups, but besides them, it may take some channel scanning to determine which games are going to be interesting.
Luckily for you, I'm here to help you out with what I think are the most exciting games of the week, as well as predictions about the games. First, I'll put up my initial Top 25 Poll of the year:
Luckily for you, I'm here to help you out with what I think are the most exciting games of the week, as well as predictions about the games. First, I'll put up my initial Top 25 Poll of the year:
9/14/11
Debris Caution: GEICO 400
Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.
This week the schedule heads north to Illinois for the GEICO 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. This is the first race in the Chase and many of the contenders have past success at this track. Though it's still race number one in the "postseason" there is still plenty at stake and a bad finish at this track can potentially sink someone's chances. Before I get to the race preview here are my picks to finish in the top-5 at the end of the year.
5) Kyle Busch - "Rowdy Kyle" supposedly "matured" this year and has raced with more patience. I'm not quite sure if I believe the maturation part but the results have shown on the track. Like Harvick, he has four wins and his 16 top-10s are second (only one behind Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson) and 13 top-5s lead all drivers. The thing about Kyle is this: he still tends to be his worst enemy. He has the most DNFs of any driver in the Chase (three) and only has one win in five Chase appearances. I still think he's a year away from fully rounding to form but he's still a threat to win anywhere, anytime.
4) Carl Edwards - He has been the model of consistency all year. Those 17 top-10 finishes and 12 top-5s show that he is almost always in a race even if he doesn't have the car to beat. Along with Ryan Newman they are the only two drivers in the Chase not to record a single DNF. In Carl's six times as a Chase driver he has won eight times, which is second all-time. I don't think he can pull off a championship for Roush but he should finish in the top-5 and ahead of his teammate, Matt Kenseth.
3) Kevin Harvick - Harvick would have won last year's Sprint Cup under the old points system with weeks to spare. This year he heads into the Chase tied with Kyle Busch for the lead (thanks to his four victories) and with a huge boost in momentum coming off of last week's victory at Richmond. Harvick only has two wins in his five Chase appearances but as we all know, momentum can cancel everything in the numbers column. I don't think this will be the last time we see Harvick leading in the points during the Chase but I do think he will fall just short.
2) Jimmie Johnson - Surprised? Don't be. Yes, Jimmie has 19 career Chase wins. He is also the only driver to make the Chase all eight times since its inception. As though a switch has been flipped on, when it comes to crunch time, Jimmie is nearly unstoppable. However, something seems a bit off this year. Even though he has 17 top-10s and 11 top-5s, he has only won once this year and that was way back in May. When he wins his sixth title I'll probably feel silly for posting this but for right now just call it a hunch.
1) Jeff Gordon - He's back. After watching just how dominant Gordon has been, even in races where he didn't have the best car and didn't win, I just have to think this is the year he gets that elusive fifth championship. He's already won three times this year and he has 10 top-5s (to go with 14 top-10s). It doesn't hurt that coming into the Chase he has finished 2nd, 6th, 13th, 6th, 3rd, 1st, and 3rd. Everyone talks about Brad Keselowski's amazing run but Gordon's has been just as great, if not better. I'm sure that Hendrick Motorsports wouldn't mind if the Sprint Cup found its way back to their once again by way of the 24.
This week the schedule heads north to Illinois for the GEICO 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. This is the first race in the Chase and many of the contenders have past success at this track. Though it's still race number one in the "postseason" there is still plenty at stake and a bad finish at this track can potentially sink someone's chances. Before I get to the race preview here are my picks to finish in the top-5 at the end of the year.
5) Kyle Busch - "Rowdy Kyle" supposedly "matured" this year and has raced with more patience. I'm not quite sure if I believe the maturation part but the results have shown on the track. Like Harvick, he has four wins and his 16 top-10s are second (only one behind Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson) and 13 top-5s lead all drivers. The thing about Kyle is this: he still tends to be his worst enemy. He has the most DNFs of any driver in the Chase (three) and only has one win in five Chase appearances. I still think he's a year away from fully rounding to form but he's still a threat to win anywhere, anytime.
4) Carl Edwards - He has been the model of consistency all year. Those 17 top-10 finishes and 12 top-5s show that he is almost always in a race even if he doesn't have the car to beat. Along with Ryan Newman they are the only two drivers in the Chase not to record a single DNF. In Carl's six times as a Chase driver he has won eight times, which is second all-time. I don't think he can pull off a championship for Roush but he should finish in the top-5 and ahead of his teammate, Matt Kenseth.
3) Kevin Harvick - Harvick would have won last year's Sprint Cup under the old points system with weeks to spare. This year he heads into the Chase tied with Kyle Busch for the lead (thanks to his four victories) and with a huge boost in momentum coming off of last week's victory at Richmond. Harvick only has two wins in his five Chase appearances but as we all know, momentum can cancel everything in the numbers column. I don't think this will be the last time we see Harvick leading in the points during the Chase but I do think he will fall just short.
2) Jimmie Johnson - Surprised? Don't be. Yes, Jimmie has 19 career Chase wins. He is also the only driver to make the Chase all eight times since its inception. As though a switch has been flipped on, when it comes to crunch time, Jimmie is nearly unstoppable. However, something seems a bit off this year. Even though he has 17 top-10s and 11 top-5s, he has only won once this year and that was way back in May. When he wins his sixth title I'll probably feel silly for posting this but for right now just call it a hunch.
1) Jeff Gordon - He's back. After watching just how dominant Gordon has been, even in races where he didn't have the best car and didn't win, I just have to think this is the year he gets that elusive fifth championship. He's already won three times this year and he has 10 top-5s (to go with 14 top-10s). It doesn't hurt that coming into the Chase he has finished 2nd, 6th, 13th, 6th, 3rd, 1st, and 3rd. Everyone talks about Brad Keselowski's amazing run but Gordon's has been just as great, if not better. I'm sure that Hendrick Motorsports wouldn't mind if the Sprint Cup found its way back to their once again by way of the 24.
9/13/11
Week 1 NFL Quick Hits
New Orleans @ Green Bay - These two teams may very well meet again down the road. This matchup got the NFL season off to an amazing start and it was fantastic to see two of the best QBs in the game go head-to-head. In all reality, though, we didn't really learn much from this game. Yes, Randall Cobb was great but don't expect him to score two touchdowns every week. Darren Sproles was explosive in the Saints offense and with Marques Colston's injury (a broken collarbone, could miss the next month or so) he may very well lead the entire team in receptions this year.
Philadelphia @ St. Louis - Michael Vick was chased around a lot more than I think any Eagles fan should feel comfortable with and the rushing defense was spotty at best. The Rams were hanging with the "Dream Team" but after a botched handoff from Sam Bradford led to a Juqua Parker fumble recovery TD the Eagles never looked back. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie looked lost at times in the nickel and will probably have nightmares of Danny Amendola. DeSean Jackson had a some big drops, particularly in the first half, but the entire Rams' receiving corps had trouble making catches yesterday. St. Louis may already be in red alert mode, though, with injuries to Bradford, Steven Jackson, Jason Smith, and Danny Amendola.
Buffalo @ Kansas City - Hoo-boy. This was a trendy pick by many analysts as an upset but I don't think anyone expected a 41 - 7 shellacking. I don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick will have many more four touchdown performances this year but Stevie Johnson looked great being matched up with one of the best corners in the league in Brandon Flowers. Money be damned, Fred Jackson showed, once again, that he is the far superior option to C.J. Spiller. The Chiefs offense will be better, but next week is a brutal matchup with Detroit and Jamaal Charles will have trouble finding holes. Eric Berry's season ending ACL tear may be the biggest injury in week one and the Chiefs' secondary is in a whole lot of trouble.
Atlanta @ Chicago - I doubt many people expected the explosive Falcons offense to be kept out of the end zone by the Bears. Jay Cutler looked sharp even with the pick six in the fourth quarter. Matt Forte deserves a contract extension and hopefully Bears management was paying attention. Even though I didn't pick the Falcons to make the playoffs I did expect them to win this particular game. I don't want to overstate things on week one but the Falcons do seem to have a lot of trouble winning outside of a dome.
Detroit @ Tampa Bay - This one hurts me quite a bit. I picked Tampa to make it to the Super Bowl but as I learned on Sunday, maybe they need a bit more time to grow. LeGarrette Blount rushed five times for 15 yards and was even pulled from the game towards the end of the second quarter and didn't play the second half. Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay's head coach, says that they were in the two minute offense but I really don't understand why. The score was 20-13 at halftime, they were receiving the ball to start the second half, and they didn't really need to abandon the run. On the Lions' end, Matt Stafford was already limping towards the sideline at the end of the game (though they say it was just a cram, everyone in Detroit had to be holding their breath). Still, the Lions were mighty impressive and are a tough matchup due to their physicality.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville - This may have been the most confusing game of the day. The Jaguars completely dominated the box score but only won by two points. Chris Johnson showed a lot of rust, rushing for only 24 yards on nine carries, while he opposite number, Maurice Jones-Drew showed no ill effects with that surgically repaired knee (24 carries, 97 yards and one touchdown). Matt Hasselbeck seems to have gotten the memo to just chuck it deep towards Kenny Britt's direction, as Britt exploded for 136 yards and the Titans' only two touchdowns.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland - Andy Dalton is the least exciting player I can think of, but he's not the complete mess that he looked to be in the preseason. Bruce Gradkowski came in after Dalton went down with a wrist injury, only to complete five of 12 passes, but the 41 yard touchdown to A.J. Green proved to be the difference maker. Cedric Benson, who was literally in jail last week, rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown. For the Browns, Colt McCoy had his moments but making him throw 40 times is not a recipe for success.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore - This was a bit of a shocker. It wasn't a surprise that the Ravens won but it was no one could have expected them to completely dominate the Steelers in every facet of the game. The Ravens forced seven turnovers, five of which came from Ben Roethlisberger. Lee Evans seemed to be a bit of a glorified decoy but as he learns the playbook I'm sure he'll post his average three to five catches for 30 to 50 yards. In all seriousness, though, I completely overlooked the Ravens' addition of Ricky Williams and he may be a major factor in which of these two teams wins the division. The Steelers did lose Willie Colon for the year and that could come back to haunt them.
Indianapolis @ Houston - This one got ugly in a hurry. Then again, who didn't see this coming? The Texans seemed to take years of frustration out in this game, completely dismantling the Colts. All of the positive publicity that came out of Indy in regards to Kerry Collins learning the playbook and being comfortable in the system completely went out of the window in a single quarter. Even without Arian Foster the Texans rushed for 167 yards (116 came from Ben Tate) and the Houston defense looked absolutely fantastic (Mario Williams had two sacks as a newly minted linebacker). Even if Peyton Manning is able to return on schedule, the Colts may be too far gone to be saved. Keep an eye on a pair of injuries: Kevin Walter for Houston (who was their number two WR and is a fantastic blocker and suffered a deep shoulder bruise) and Gary Brackett for Indy (he suffered a left shoulder injury in the fourth quarter and did not return).
Philadelphia @ St. Louis - Michael Vick was chased around a lot more than I think any Eagles fan should feel comfortable with and the rushing defense was spotty at best. The Rams were hanging with the "Dream Team" but after a botched handoff from Sam Bradford led to a Juqua Parker fumble recovery TD the Eagles never looked back. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie looked lost at times in the nickel and will probably have nightmares of Danny Amendola. DeSean Jackson had a some big drops, particularly in the first half, but the entire Rams' receiving corps had trouble making catches yesterday. St. Louis may already be in red alert mode, though, with injuries to Bradford, Steven Jackson, Jason Smith, and Danny Amendola.
Buffalo @ Kansas City - Hoo-boy. This was a trendy pick by many analysts as an upset but I don't think anyone expected a 41 - 7 shellacking. I don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick will have many more four touchdown performances this year but Stevie Johnson looked great being matched up with one of the best corners in the league in Brandon Flowers. Money be damned, Fred Jackson showed, once again, that he is the far superior option to C.J. Spiller. The Chiefs offense will be better, but next week is a brutal matchup with Detroit and Jamaal Charles will have trouble finding holes. Eric Berry's season ending ACL tear may be the biggest injury in week one and the Chiefs' secondary is in a whole lot of trouble.
Atlanta @ Chicago - I doubt many people expected the explosive Falcons offense to be kept out of the end zone by the Bears. Jay Cutler looked sharp even with the pick six in the fourth quarter. Matt Forte deserves a contract extension and hopefully Bears management was paying attention. Even though I didn't pick the Falcons to make the playoffs I did expect them to win this particular game. I don't want to overstate things on week one but the Falcons do seem to have a lot of trouble winning outside of a dome.
Detroit @ Tampa Bay - This one hurts me quite a bit. I picked Tampa to make it to the Super Bowl but as I learned on Sunday, maybe they need a bit more time to grow. LeGarrette Blount rushed five times for 15 yards and was even pulled from the game towards the end of the second quarter and didn't play the second half. Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay's head coach, says that they were in the two minute offense but I really don't understand why. The score was 20-13 at halftime, they were receiving the ball to start the second half, and they didn't really need to abandon the run. On the Lions' end, Matt Stafford was already limping towards the sideline at the end of the game (though they say it was just a cram, everyone in Detroit had to be holding their breath). Still, the Lions were mighty impressive and are a tough matchup due to their physicality.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville - This may have been the most confusing game of the day. The Jaguars completely dominated the box score but only won by two points. Chris Johnson showed a lot of rust, rushing for only 24 yards on nine carries, while he opposite number, Maurice Jones-Drew showed no ill effects with that surgically repaired knee (24 carries, 97 yards and one touchdown). Matt Hasselbeck seems to have gotten the memo to just chuck it deep towards Kenny Britt's direction, as Britt exploded for 136 yards and the Titans' only two touchdowns.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland - Andy Dalton is the least exciting player I can think of, but he's not the complete mess that he looked to be in the preseason. Bruce Gradkowski came in after Dalton went down with a wrist injury, only to complete five of 12 passes, but the 41 yard touchdown to A.J. Green proved to be the difference maker. Cedric Benson, who was literally in jail last week, rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown. For the Browns, Colt McCoy had his moments but making him throw 40 times is not a recipe for success.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore - This was a bit of a shocker. It wasn't a surprise that the Ravens won but it was no one could have expected them to completely dominate the Steelers in every facet of the game. The Ravens forced seven turnovers, five of which came from Ben Roethlisberger. Lee Evans seemed to be a bit of a glorified decoy but as he learns the playbook I'm sure he'll post his average three to five catches for 30 to 50 yards. In all seriousness, though, I completely overlooked the Ravens' addition of Ricky Williams and he may be a major factor in which of these two teams wins the division. The Steelers did lose Willie Colon for the year and that could come back to haunt them.
Indianapolis @ Houston - This one got ugly in a hurry. Then again, who didn't see this coming? The Texans seemed to take years of frustration out in this game, completely dismantling the Colts. All of the positive publicity that came out of Indy in regards to Kerry Collins learning the playbook and being comfortable in the system completely went out of the window in a single quarter. Even without Arian Foster the Texans rushed for 167 yards (116 came from Ben Tate) and the Houston defense looked absolutely fantastic (Mario Williams had two sacks as a newly minted linebacker). Even if Peyton Manning is able to return on schedule, the Colts may be too far gone to be saved. Keep an eye on a pair of injuries: Kevin Walter for Houston (who was their number two WR and is a fantastic blocker and suffered a deep shoulder bruise) and Gary Brackett for Indy (he suffered a left shoulder injury in the fourth quarter and did not return).
Week 2 NCAA Football Roundup
And you thought Brian Kelly was angry last week: I still can't exactly explain what I watched Michigan pull out of their ass on Saturday night to somehow come away with a victory, but I do know that I loved every second of it. Especially the last 30 seconds, which included a 64-yard miracle catch and run, where the receiver Jeremy Gallon was open by 30 yards and avoided 4 Notre Dame tacklers. Denard threw up jumpball after jumpball, and Michigan's receivers simply seemed to actually pay attention to the ball, while Notre Dame's corners kept running backwards and didn't turn their heads in time to make any plays in many jumpball situations. Denard averaged over 30 yards per completion, which is insane, and means he was A.) being utilized wrong and B.) Lucky as all hell because his deep ball is wobbly. Notre Dame managed to turn the ball over 5 times in consecutive games, almost as impressive as finding ways to choke late and lose in consecutive nationally televised games. Tommy Rees was good overall, but his final turnover was inexcusable and cost the Irish. The Irish face Michigan State this week, and could be staring an 0-3 start in the face, while Michigan has Eastern Michigan, San Diego State, Minnesota, and a game at Northwestern up next, and could be seeing a 6-0 start in their future. This loss has to hurt more than Notre Dame's loss last week, as at least they trailed that whole game. Notre Dame dominated this game through three quarters, took their hands off Michigan's throats, and proceeded to gag themselves for 15 long, excruciating minutes.
SEC Speed means SEC Shootouts: Both in-conference SEC games were exhilarating shootouts this weekend, with #12 South Carolina defeating Georgia 45-42 and Auburn defeating #16 Mississippi State 41-34. Georgia QB Aaron Murray played great throwing for 248 yards and 4 TDs, Georgia RB Isaiah Crowell topped 100 yards and scored two touchdowns, and South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore rushed for 174 yards and a TD. The star of the game though was defensive tackle Melvin Ingram, who outran the entire Georgia defense on a 68 yard fake punt TD, recovered a fumble and returned it 5 yards for a TD, and clinched the game by catching the onside kick. Mark Richt may want to start checking out the real estate markets elsewhere because Georgia won't be his home past this January.
Auburn somehow found a way to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, and stopped Mississippi State literally inches short of the game-tying touchdown as time expired. Mississippi State rushed for 333 yards, with Vick Ballard leading the team with 134 yards. Auburn countered with 233 rushing yards of their own, the majority of which coming from star RB Michael Dyer (143 yards, 2 TD). Auburn QB Barrett Trotter was efficient (16/23, 146 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and didn't make any major mistakes aside from one interception. Mississippi State was heavily favored in this game, so this is a big win for Auburn. Almost as big as when they outpaid Mississippi State for Cameron Newton last year.
Justin Blackmon is Always Open: Arizona Wildcats Edition: In this week's episode of Justin Blackmon is Always Open, he made an absolute joke of the Wildcats secondary (specifically poor CB Shaquille Richardson who was tasked with the unenviable job of covering him). Arizona seemingly dared Oklahoma State to continue throwing to the best receiver in the country, by consistently leaving Richardson on an island against him in man coverage. Blackmon abused him on a couple beautiful fade routes, slant routes, curls, and every other conceivable route on his way to 12 catches, 128 yards and 2 TDs. Additionally, Weeden threw for 397 total yards, and the two-headed running game of RBs Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith thoroughly impressed in totaling 182 yards and 3 TDs. Arizona's passing game looked phenomenal between the 20s, and Nick Foles is on track to have an insanely effective season (71/93, 810 yards, 6 TD), but the Wildcats running game was abysmal (39 total rushing yards).
Those teams in Iowa sure cared about that crappy Cy-Hawk trophy a lot: Iowa and Iowa State played a classic on Saturday, with Iowa State prevailing 44-41 in 3OT. Former JuCo QB (and most bad-ass named QB ever) Steele Jantz recovered from a horrendous week 1 performance against Northern Iowa to go 25/37 for 279 yards and 4 TDs. On the other hand, the Iowa Hawkeyes look weak this season, so they'll still manage to win 9 games somehow, because Iowa is the LSU of the Big Ten, and just finds ugly ways to win. Also, you will literally never again hear Iowa, Iowa State, and the word "classic" used in a sentence again. Iowa State also may not hear Cyclones and "win" in a sentence many more times this year, so to all four of you Cyclones fans, enjoy it while it lasts.
The Real, Worse, Younger, Mediocre McCoy: Those of you who had Game 2 in the "When will Garrett Gilbert get benched" pool, collect your prizes. He imploded in spectacular fashion, going 2/8 for 8 yards and throwing 2 INTs before getting benched, and almost dug Texas into too big of a hole against BYU to dig out of. Texas barely managed a 17-16 victory after benching Gilbert for sophomore Case McCoy (Yes, he's related, and yes he is friends with the younger Shipley brother, Jaxon) and freshman David Ash in a playing time-share. Gilbert has fallen far from his 5-star QB status and impressive performance in the national championship against Alabama (he only threw 4 interceptions in that game!) to a punchline and likely transfer to a I-AA school after this season. Colt McCoy's younger brother, Case, will take over QB duties this week in all likelihood, but may share time with David Ash.
Participation Awards!
- Charleston Southern took their beating like a good little FCS school, 62-10 at the hands of Florida State.
- Akron lost to Temple 41-3 and is on track to score less than 20 points this year, total. The bad news for Akron is that this was a conference game too, and not a mercy killing at the hands of the Buckeyes. I'll give Akron even odds when they bring in the Virginia Military academy on September 24th, and hope for their sake that they can manage a win.
- UNLV thought they had a shot against Washington State, who lost their QB Jeff Tuel last week for most of this season. They realized quickly that they were horribly mistaken, as they lost 59-7 to the worst team in the Pac-12.
- South Dakota State was systematically dominated by the Fighting Illini, who rushed for 364 yards, and finished 16/18 throwing the ball in their 56-3 win. Ron Zook's Illinois team looks impressive enough this year to save his job (again), just in time for the team to regress back to a 5-7 or 6-6 level for 3 years.
SEC Speed means SEC Shootouts: Both in-conference SEC games were exhilarating shootouts this weekend, with #12 South Carolina defeating Georgia 45-42 and Auburn defeating #16 Mississippi State 41-34. Georgia QB Aaron Murray played great throwing for 248 yards and 4 TDs, Georgia RB Isaiah Crowell topped 100 yards and scored two touchdowns, and South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore rushed for 174 yards and a TD. The star of the game though was defensive tackle Melvin Ingram, who outran the entire Georgia defense on a 68 yard fake punt TD, recovered a fumble and returned it 5 yards for a TD, and clinched the game by catching the onside kick. Mark Richt may want to start checking out the real estate markets elsewhere because Georgia won't be his home past this January.
Auburn somehow found a way to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, and stopped Mississippi State literally inches short of the game-tying touchdown as time expired. Mississippi State rushed for 333 yards, with Vick Ballard leading the team with 134 yards. Auburn countered with 233 rushing yards of their own, the majority of which coming from star RB Michael Dyer (143 yards, 2 TD). Auburn QB Barrett Trotter was efficient (16/23, 146 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and didn't make any major mistakes aside from one interception. Mississippi State was heavily favored in this game, so this is a big win for Auburn. Almost as big as when they outpaid Mississippi State for Cameron Newton last year.
Justin Blackmon is Always Open: Arizona Wildcats Edition: In this week's episode of Justin Blackmon is Always Open, he made an absolute joke of the Wildcats secondary (specifically poor CB Shaquille Richardson who was tasked with the unenviable job of covering him). Arizona seemingly dared Oklahoma State to continue throwing to the best receiver in the country, by consistently leaving Richardson on an island against him in man coverage. Blackmon abused him on a couple beautiful fade routes, slant routes, curls, and every other conceivable route on his way to 12 catches, 128 yards and 2 TDs. Additionally, Weeden threw for 397 total yards, and the two-headed running game of RBs Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith thoroughly impressed in totaling 182 yards and 3 TDs. Arizona's passing game looked phenomenal between the 20s, and Nick Foles is on track to have an insanely effective season (71/93, 810 yards, 6 TD), but the Wildcats running game was abysmal (39 total rushing yards).
Those teams in Iowa sure cared about that crappy Cy-Hawk trophy a lot: Iowa and Iowa State played a classic on Saturday, with Iowa State prevailing 44-41 in 3OT. Former JuCo QB (and most bad-ass named QB ever) Steele Jantz recovered from a horrendous week 1 performance against Northern Iowa to go 25/37 for 279 yards and 4 TDs. On the other hand, the Iowa Hawkeyes look weak this season, so they'll still manage to win 9 games somehow, because Iowa is the LSU of the Big Ten, and just finds ugly ways to win. Also, you will literally never again hear Iowa, Iowa State, and the word "classic" used in a sentence again. Iowa State also may not hear Cyclones and "win" in a sentence many more times this year, so to all four of you Cyclones fans, enjoy it while it lasts.
The Real, Worse, Younger, Mediocre McCoy: Those of you who had Game 2 in the "When will Garrett Gilbert get benched" pool, collect your prizes. He imploded in spectacular fashion, going 2/8 for 8 yards and throwing 2 INTs before getting benched, and almost dug Texas into too big of a hole against BYU to dig out of. Texas barely managed a 17-16 victory after benching Gilbert for sophomore Case McCoy (Yes, he's related, and yes he is friends with the younger Shipley brother, Jaxon) and freshman David Ash in a playing time-share. Gilbert has fallen far from his 5-star QB status and impressive performance in the national championship against Alabama (he only threw 4 interceptions in that game!) to a punchline and likely transfer to a I-AA school after this season. Colt McCoy's younger brother, Case, will take over QB duties this week in all likelihood, but may share time with David Ash.
Good Effort!
- East Carolina once again almost pulls a major upset, but falls short late, losing 17-10 to Virginia Tech, whom they upset in 2008.
- Toledo had the ball in the red zone with a minute left in the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes, but threw four straight incompletions to fall short against OSU. Toledo was in it the whole game, in large part thanks to WR Eric Page who had 12 receptions, 145 yards and 2 TD.
- Maine came within 6 of Pittsburgh, losing 35-29. While two of their touchdowns came in the last four minutes, the margin of victory was still too close for comfort against an FCS team.
- Norfolk State made Dana Holgorsen angry by leading his Mountaineers at halftime. West Virginia responded with 45 unanswered points in the second half to win 55-12.
- Purdue almost upset Rice, but ultimately lost 24-22. Purdue's so horrible, I consider them underdogs in basically every game, yes, even against Rice.
- Rhode Island almost took down Syracuse, but lost 21-14. Syracuse's next opponent, you ask? USC. Luckily for the Orange, Lane Kiffin will keep it close by going for every 4th down and 2 point conversion possible.
- The top effort of the week goes to Fresno State QB Derek Carr, who went all Superman and scored this insane touchdown against Nebraska. Fresno State ended up losing 42-29, but was right in the game until Taylor Martinez's 46 yard TD scamper basically locked up the Cornhusker win.
- Charleston Southern took their beating like a good little FCS school, 62-10 at the hands of Florida State.
- Akron lost to Temple 41-3 and is on track to score less than 20 points this year, total. The bad news for Akron is that this was a conference game too, and not a mercy killing at the hands of the Buckeyes. I'll give Akron even odds when they bring in the Virginia Military academy on September 24th, and hope for their sake that they can manage a win.
- UNLV thought they had a shot against Washington State, who lost their QB Jeff Tuel last week for most of this season. They realized quickly that they were horribly mistaken, as they lost 59-7 to the worst team in the Pac-12.
- South Dakota State was systematically dominated by the Fighting Illini, who rushed for 364 yards, and finished 16/18 throwing the ball in their 56-3 win. Ron Zook's Illinois team looks impressive enough this year to save his job (again), just in time for the team to regress back to a 5-7 or 6-6 level for 3 years.
9/8/11
Debris Caution: Wonderful Pistachios 400
Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.
NASCAR heads to Richmond this week for what will be the final race before the Chase. Richmond's races have traditionally been under the lights and with such high stakes involved it leads to some great racing. Unfortunately the field for The Chase is all but set, I mean look at the clinch scenarios for the final two top-10 spots:
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Finish 20th or better, 21st or better and lead one lap, 22nd or better and lead most laps
Tony Stewart: Finish 18th or better, 19th or better and lead one lap, 20th or better and lead the most laps
And that is without any help. Denny Hamlin is also pretty secure but if Paul Menard wins or Marcos Ambrose wins makes it into 20th and wins (he currently is 21st, seven points behind Menard and ten behind Mark Martin). David Ragan could also throw a wrench into things, he sits 23rd in points, twenty behind Menard, but if he were to win Saturday he would rapidly close the gap. There is a cluster of winless drivers that are mathematically in it, which include: A.J. Allmendinger, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne, Joey Logano, Mark Martin, and Juan Pablo Montoya. Out of that group your best bets to make some noise are Allmendinger and Bowyer.
So who are the best bets to finish the "regular season" strong? Well, if it's Richmond, that's Kyle Busch territory. No one is even close to Busch and you know that he wouldn't mind adding another win to his Cup leading total of four. In 13 career starts Busch has 11 top-5s (which account for all of his top-10s), zero DNFs, and three wins (Jimmie Johnson has also won three times, but his average finish is 11.2 and that's without a single DNF). His average finish of 4.9 is heads and shoulders above everyone else and he's my pick to win this weekend. I know, shocker, but I fully expect Busch to be at his best on Saturday night and it doesn't hurt that he won the Richmond race earlier this year.
If it's not Busch, then it may very well be his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin. Hamlin won this event last year and he is only one of three drivers with an average career finish under 10 (7.5). In eleven starts he has seven top-10s, six of which have gone for top-5s, and two wins. Hamlin needs this race a lot worse than his teammate, but as long as one of them wins it should cinch up Hamlin's spot in the Chase. Don't count out their teammate, Joey Logano, either: he only has five starts but one top-5 and and an average finish of 12.8. If nothing else he should be right on the cusp of a top-10 finish. Because of JGR's dominance at this track, Joey is also my dark horse pick to make some noise on Saturday.
If there are two drivers that need this race more than Hamlin, it would have to be Clint Bowyer and Paul Menard. Bowyer is the third member of the prestigious "single-digit average career finish" club at 9.5. He has 11 career starts and six of those have gone for top-10s and one of those was a win. Bowyer would need to win this weekend and it's going to be a tall task, but he should be near the front and that means there could be some chippy racing near the front. Just don't let Bowyer near Juan Pablo Montoya and he should be fine. Menard, on the other hand, hasn't enjoyed any success at Richmond. Menard has nine career starts and none of those ended in top-10s and his average finish is 28.3. To say that his chances are slim would be an understatement, but then again, who would of picked Menard to win the Brickyard 400 (I did have him on my fantasy team, though!).
A.J. Allmendinger finished seventh in the spring race and has another top-10 in nine career starts. Allmendinger only has a career finish of 23.7, but this has been the year of the first time winner. His teammate, Marcos Ambrose, can attest to that. Ambrose has an outside shot at the Chase if he can pull off an upset victory, but he may actually have a better chance than his teammate despite the fact that he's eight spots behind him in points. Ambrose has two top-10s in five career starts and one of those was a top-5. His career finish of 14.0 puts him in ninth place among active drivers, though his average start of 21.0 is the second lowest of top-20 average finishers (Matt Kenseth is the only driver that is worse at qualifying for Richmond: 21.5). If nothing else, it has been a fantastic rebound for Richard Petty Motorsports and the future is bright for a group that almost had to close shop a year ago.
NASCAR heads to Richmond this week for what will be the final race before the Chase. Richmond's races have traditionally been under the lights and with such high stakes involved it leads to some great racing. Unfortunately the field for The Chase is all but set, I mean look at the clinch scenarios for the final two top-10 spots:
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Finish 20th or better, 21st or better and lead one lap, 22nd or better and lead most laps
Tony Stewart: Finish 18th or better, 19th or better and lead one lap, 20th or better and lead the most laps
And that is without any help. Denny Hamlin is also pretty secure but if Paul Menard wins or Marcos Ambrose wins makes it into 20th and wins (he currently is 21st, seven points behind Menard and ten behind Mark Martin). David Ragan could also throw a wrench into things, he sits 23rd in points, twenty behind Menard, but if he were to win Saturday he would rapidly close the gap. There is a cluster of winless drivers that are mathematically in it, which include: A.J. Allmendinger, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne, Joey Logano, Mark Martin, and Juan Pablo Montoya. Out of that group your best bets to make some noise are Allmendinger and Bowyer.
So who are the best bets to finish the "regular season" strong? Well, if it's Richmond, that's Kyle Busch territory. No one is even close to Busch and you know that he wouldn't mind adding another win to his Cup leading total of four. In 13 career starts Busch has 11 top-5s (which account for all of his top-10s), zero DNFs, and three wins (Jimmie Johnson has also won three times, but his average finish is 11.2 and that's without a single DNF). His average finish of 4.9 is heads and shoulders above everyone else and he's my pick to win this weekend. I know, shocker, but I fully expect Busch to be at his best on Saturday night and it doesn't hurt that he won the Richmond race earlier this year.
If it's not Busch, then it may very well be his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin. Hamlin won this event last year and he is only one of three drivers with an average career finish under 10 (7.5). In eleven starts he has seven top-10s, six of which have gone for top-5s, and two wins. Hamlin needs this race a lot worse than his teammate, but as long as one of them wins it should cinch up Hamlin's spot in the Chase. Don't count out their teammate, Joey Logano, either: he only has five starts but one top-5 and and an average finish of 12.8. If nothing else he should be right on the cusp of a top-10 finish. Because of JGR's dominance at this track, Joey is also my dark horse pick to make some noise on Saturday.
If there are two drivers that need this race more than Hamlin, it would have to be Clint Bowyer and Paul Menard. Bowyer is the third member of the prestigious "single-digit average career finish" club at 9.5. He has 11 career starts and six of those have gone for top-10s and one of those was a win. Bowyer would need to win this weekend and it's going to be a tall task, but he should be near the front and that means there could be some chippy racing near the front. Just don't let Bowyer near Juan Pablo Montoya and he should be fine. Menard, on the other hand, hasn't enjoyed any success at Richmond. Menard has nine career starts and none of those ended in top-10s and his average finish is 28.3. To say that his chances are slim would be an understatement, but then again, who would of picked Menard to win the Brickyard 400 (I did have him on my fantasy team, though!).
A.J. Allmendinger finished seventh in the spring race and has another top-10 in nine career starts. Allmendinger only has a career finish of 23.7, but this has been the year of the first time winner. His teammate, Marcos Ambrose, can attest to that. Ambrose has an outside shot at the Chase if he can pull off an upset victory, but he may actually have a better chance than his teammate despite the fact that he's eight spots behind him in points. Ambrose has two top-10s in five career starts and one of those was a top-5. His career finish of 14.0 puts him in ninth place among active drivers, though his average start of 21.0 is the second lowest of top-20 average finishers (Matt Kenseth is the only driver that is worse at qualifying for Richmond: 21.5). If nothing else, it has been a fantastic rebound for Richard Petty Motorsports and the future is bright for a group that almost had to close shop a year ago.
9/7/11
Heisman High Men Week 1
Heisman High Men is a weekly feature that analyzes the performance of the top Heisman contenders in the 2011 season. Every week, I'll rank the top 5 Heisman contenders to this point in the season, show who's rising and falling, and what dark horses still linger in the conversation to get the renowned invitation to New York for the Heisman award ceremony.
1. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Week 1 Stats (vs. TCU): 21/27, 359 yards, 5 TDs; 10 rushes, 33 yards; 1 reception, 15 yards
Robert Griffin was absolutely breathtaking against the TCU Horned Frogs this week, and by all means has earned the top spot on this list. He dissected the TCU defense systematically and with a surgeon's precision. Even more impressively, four of his 5 touchdown passes were over 25 yards (35, 28, 14, 64, and 42 yards each respectively). Griffin was only sacked once, and even got into the game as a receiver on a quirky play, as their receiver Kendall Wright (12 receptions, 189 yards, 2 TDs; also threw a touchdown pass in the first quarter) passed to Griffin for a 15 yard gain. Griffin's an exceptional athlete, but proved on Friday night that he didn't need to use his legs to be an effective quarterback. Do I think Griffin will top this list for long? Not at all, but after week one, Griffin led his team to a major upset and was flawless in doing so.
2. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State
Week 1 Stats (@ Georgia): 28/34, 261 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Even though Boise State didn't generate much ground through their running game, and was in their first game without WRs Austin Pettis and Titus Young, you sure couldn't tell from Kellen Moore's performance. Moore was brilliant, spreading the ball to nine different receivers, none of which caught more than 6 passes. While the receivers were largely taken out of the game, Moore focused on hitting receivers over the middle and used TE Kyle Efaw and big WR Matt Miller quite a bit. His stats may not be as impressive, numbers-wise, but he completed 82% of his passes, and led Boise State to what may be their toughest win of the season. Moore gets a boost undoubtedly from the quality of the opponent, but he still performed like a Heisman finalist nonetheless.
3. Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
Week 1 Stats (vs. Northern Arizona): 34/42, 412 yards, 5 TDs
Foles leads the nation in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and is near the top in completion percentage among starting quarterbacks, so he makes it onto the list. Foles and his top WR Juron Criner both have NFL futures, and could vault each other to Heisman candidacy. Criner caught 6 balls for 151 yards and a TD in the game, and Foles was near perfect. This week, Foles and the Wildcats have a major test against the Oklahoma State Cowboys on a Thursday night national TV game. Should Arizona prevail, Foles will be vaulted onto a national stage, and start getting Heisman pub, even if it's just for the month of September. I don't expect Foles to remain in the top 5 all year, or to end up here at year's end, but after one week, rankings are very volatile.
4. Robert Woods, WR, USC
Week 1 Stats (vs. Minnesota): 17 receptions, 177 yards, 3 TDs
Woods caught everything thrown his way (even using his helmet on one play), and was the most productive receiver of the weekend in receptions and receiving TDs. USC barely defeated Minnesota, and that's a scary sign for those who projected USC to return to glory this year. This team isn't elite, and as such, Woods doesn't have much of a chance at the Heisman this year, unless he's the Justin Blackmon of last year, who puts up stats like this every game.
5. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
Week 1 Stats (vs. Tulsa): 35/47, 375 yards, 1 TD
Tulsa is a respectable team, and Landry Jones was at the top of my preseason list, so I'll keep him in the top 5 for now. Jones was efficient and effective against Tulsa, but most of the touchdowns went to the RBs in the red zone, as RB Dominique Whaley scored three from inside the 10 yard line, and Brennan Clay scored a touchdown from 11 yards out. Jones' TD totals will inflate in the coming weeks as it becomes more necessary to convert third downs, so expect him to finish with near 38 TDs again, just like the 2010 season.
Rising:
WR Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma), Michael Floyd (Notre Dame), Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State): These are quite possibly the three best wideouts in the nation, and all of them performed as such in their season debuts. Broyles caught 14 balls for 158 yards and 1 TD, Michael Floyd caught 12 balls for 154 yards and 2 TDs, and Blackmon piled up 144 yards on 8 receptions. They should all log 100 catches and about 1,500 yards this year, so their teams' performances will be what separates them (read: Michael Floyd is not going to get Heisman consideration.
QBs Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M), Case Keenum (Houston): Ryan Tannehill was flawless against SMU, going 21/26 for 246 yards and 2 TDs. Every incompletion was a smart decision, and I was thoroughly impressed with his pocket presence and escapability. He's going to be in the conversation throughout the season, the same way Andrew Luck will be. Case Keenum went 30/40 for 310 yards and a touchdown against UCLA in Houston's victory. That was their biggest roadblock in all likelihood, and Keenum was very solid against a Big Six defense. His numbers will inflate against C-USA competition, so his Week 1 performance shows he's completely back from his injury, and will challenge every major NCAA passing record.
RBs Cyrus Gray (Texas A&M), Marcus Lattimore (South Carolina), Vick Ballard (Miss. St.): Gray ran with great patience and discipline on his way to 131 yards and 2 TDs against SMU. His biggest roadblock? The backup RB, Christine Michael (85 yards and 2 TDs). Gray wouldn't be the starter this year, but Michael got injured last year and gave way to the dynamic Gray. Gray will stay in contention as long as A&M stays undefeated or in BCS contention. Lattimore ran for 123 yards and 3 TDs in the win over East Carolina on Saturday. He looked pretty good, and this is about what we can expect all year. If Lattimore puts up a similar effort against Georgia, who bottled up Boise State's running game, he'll be pretty tough to keep out of the top 5 next week. Vick Ballard ran for 166 yards and 3 TDs on only 10 carries in Mississippi State's blowout of Memphis. Ballard is a supreme talent in the backfield and will be heavily leaned upon in the SEC, as they run the ball quite a bit. Ballard probably won't stay in contention, but it's week 1, many of the names here won't have much staying power.
Falling:
RBs LaMichael James (Oregon), Trent Richardson (Alabama), Montee Ball/James White (Wisconsin): James only managed 54 yards on 18 carries as Oregon was dominated by LSU's defense. Unless Oregon wins out, and LaMichael goes for big games in Oregon's last 12 games, he's out of Heisman talks. Trent Richardson ran for a mere 30 yards on 13 carries against Kent State. He did manage three touchdowns, but still, he needs to post about 1,600 yards in all likelihood if he's going to garner Heisman attention. Additionally, Alabama's QB situation looks very iffy, and the team may not be good enough for him to get consideration for the award. Montee Ball, James White, and Russell Wilson all ran for 60 yards against UNLV, and the predictable has happened, Bret Bielema is going with a split back approach that is going to prevent either from legitimate Heisman contention.
QBs Darron Thomas (Oregon), Andrew Luck (Stanford): Darron Thomas needed 54 pass attempts to manage 240 yards passing, and only threw one TD along with his one INT. The LSU game may have broken his and LaMichael James' Heisman contention dreams in one fell swoop. Andrew Luck was taken before game's end, and only threw for 171 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1. Luck obviously is a major contender for the award, and his performance will pick up once he plays real teams. Luck's contention will be based more on his team's performance than his compiling stats. Last season he only threw for 3,338 yards and 32 TDs, but finished as runner-up as Stanford finished 4th overall in the BCS polls.
Dark Horse:
QB Geno Smith (West Virginia): Smith looked fantastic in his abbreviated performance against Marshall on Sunday. The Holgorsen offense spread the ball all over the field and was looking good in the first real trial run. Smith looked efficient and made fantastic decisions all game long, including scrambling for two big first downs. You'd like for Smith to log more than 249 passing yards and 2 TDs, but this is a good start, and his performance should improve further as his familiarity with the offense increases.
1. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Week 1 Stats (vs. TCU): 21/27, 359 yards, 5 TDs; 10 rushes, 33 yards; 1 reception, 15 yards
Robert Griffin was absolutely breathtaking against the TCU Horned Frogs this week, and by all means has earned the top spot on this list. He dissected the TCU defense systematically and with a surgeon's precision. Even more impressively, four of his 5 touchdown passes were over 25 yards (35, 28, 14, 64, and 42 yards each respectively). Griffin was only sacked once, and even got into the game as a receiver on a quirky play, as their receiver Kendall Wright (12 receptions, 189 yards, 2 TDs; also threw a touchdown pass in the first quarter) passed to Griffin for a 15 yard gain. Griffin's an exceptional athlete, but proved on Friday night that he didn't need to use his legs to be an effective quarterback. Do I think Griffin will top this list for long? Not at all, but after week one, Griffin led his team to a major upset and was flawless in doing so.
2. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State
Week 1 Stats (@ Georgia): 28/34, 261 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Even though Boise State didn't generate much ground through their running game, and was in their first game without WRs Austin Pettis and Titus Young, you sure couldn't tell from Kellen Moore's performance. Moore was brilliant, spreading the ball to nine different receivers, none of which caught more than 6 passes. While the receivers were largely taken out of the game, Moore focused on hitting receivers over the middle and used TE Kyle Efaw and big WR Matt Miller quite a bit. His stats may not be as impressive, numbers-wise, but he completed 82% of his passes, and led Boise State to what may be their toughest win of the season. Moore gets a boost undoubtedly from the quality of the opponent, but he still performed like a Heisman finalist nonetheless.
3. Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
Week 1 Stats (vs. Northern Arizona): 34/42, 412 yards, 5 TDs
Foles leads the nation in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and is near the top in completion percentage among starting quarterbacks, so he makes it onto the list. Foles and his top WR Juron Criner both have NFL futures, and could vault each other to Heisman candidacy. Criner caught 6 balls for 151 yards and a TD in the game, and Foles was near perfect. This week, Foles and the Wildcats have a major test against the Oklahoma State Cowboys on a Thursday night national TV game. Should Arizona prevail, Foles will be vaulted onto a national stage, and start getting Heisman pub, even if it's just for the month of September. I don't expect Foles to remain in the top 5 all year, or to end up here at year's end, but after one week, rankings are very volatile.
4. Robert Woods, WR, USC
Week 1 Stats (vs. Minnesota): 17 receptions, 177 yards, 3 TDs
Woods caught everything thrown his way (even using his helmet on one play), and was the most productive receiver of the weekend in receptions and receiving TDs. USC barely defeated Minnesota, and that's a scary sign for those who projected USC to return to glory this year. This team isn't elite, and as such, Woods doesn't have much of a chance at the Heisman this year, unless he's the Justin Blackmon of last year, who puts up stats like this every game.
5. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
Week 1 Stats (vs. Tulsa): 35/47, 375 yards, 1 TD
Tulsa is a respectable team, and Landry Jones was at the top of my preseason list, so I'll keep him in the top 5 for now. Jones was efficient and effective against Tulsa, but most of the touchdowns went to the RBs in the red zone, as RB Dominique Whaley scored three from inside the 10 yard line, and Brennan Clay scored a touchdown from 11 yards out. Jones' TD totals will inflate in the coming weeks as it becomes more necessary to convert third downs, so expect him to finish with near 38 TDs again, just like the 2010 season.
Rising:
WR Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma), Michael Floyd (Notre Dame), Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State): These are quite possibly the three best wideouts in the nation, and all of them performed as such in their season debuts. Broyles caught 14 balls for 158 yards and 1 TD, Michael Floyd caught 12 balls for 154 yards and 2 TDs, and Blackmon piled up 144 yards on 8 receptions. They should all log 100 catches and about 1,500 yards this year, so their teams' performances will be what separates them (read: Michael Floyd is not going to get Heisman consideration.
QBs Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M), Case Keenum (Houston): Ryan Tannehill was flawless against SMU, going 21/26 for 246 yards and 2 TDs. Every incompletion was a smart decision, and I was thoroughly impressed with his pocket presence and escapability. He's going to be in the conversation throughout the season, the same way Andrew Luck will be. Case Keenum went 30/40 for 310 yards and a touchdown against UCLA in Houston's victory. That was their biggest roadblock in all likelihood, and Keenum was very solid against a Big Six defense. His numbers will inflate against C-USA competition, so his Week 1 performance shows he's completely back from his injury, and will challenge every major NCAA passing record.
RBs Cyrus Gray (Texas A&M), Marcus Lattimore (South Carolina), Vick Ballard (Miss. St.): Gray ran with great patience and discipline on his way to 131 yards and 2 TDs against SMU. His biggest roadblock? The backup RB, Christine Michael (85 yards and 2 TDs). Gray wouldn't be the starter this year, but Michael got injured last year and gave way to the dynamic Gray. Gray will stay in contention as long as A&M stays undefeated or in BCS contention. Lattimore ran for 123 yards and 3 TDs in the win over East Carolina on Saturday. He looked pretty good, and this is about what we can expect all year. If Lattimore puts up a similar effort against Georgia, who bottled up Boise State's running game, he'll be pretty tough to keep out of the top 5 next week. Vick Ballard ran for 166 yards and 3 TDs on only 10 carries in Mississippi State's blowout of Memphis. Ballard is a supreme talent in the backfield and will be heavily leaned upon in the SEC, as they run the ball quite a bit. Ballard probably won't stay in contention, but it's week 1, many of the names here won't have much staying power.
Falling:
RBs LaMichael James (Oregon), Trent Richardson (Alabama), Montee Ball/James White (Wisconsin): James only managed 54 yards on 18 carries as Oregon was dominated by LSU's defense. Unless Oregon wins out, and LaMichael goes for big games in Oregon's last 12 games, he's out of Heisman talks. Trent Richardson ran for a mere 30 yards on 13 carries against Kent State. He did manage three touchdowns, but still, he needs to post about 1,600 yards in all likelihood if he's going to garner Heisman attention. Additionally, Alabama's QB situation looks very iffy, and the team may not be good enough for him to get consideration for the award. Montee Ball, James White, and Russell Wilson all ran for 60 yards against UNLV, and the predictable has happened, Bret Bielema is going with a split back approach that is going to prevent either from legitimate Heisman contention.
QBs Darron Thomas (Oregon), Andrew Luck (Stanford): Darron Thomas needed 54 pass attempts to manage 240 yards passing, and only threw one TD along with his one INT. The LSU game may have broken his and LaMichael James' Heisman contention dreams in one fell swoop. Andrew Luck was taken before game's end, and only threw for 171 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1. Luck obviously is a major contender for the award, and his performance will pick up once he plays real teams. Luck's contention will be based more on his team's performance than his compiling stats. Last season he only threw for 3,338 yards and 32 TDs, but finished as runner-up as Stanford finished 4th overall in the BCS polls.
Dark Horse:
QB Geno Smith (West Virginia): Smith looked fantastic in his abbreviated performance against Marshall on Sunday. The Holgorsen offense spread the ball all over the field and was looking good in the first real trial run. Smith looked efficient and made fantastic decisions all game long, including scrambling for two big first downs. You'd like for Smith to log more than 249 passing yards and 2 TDs, but this is a good start, and his performance should improve further as his familiarity with the offense increases.
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