8/31/11

Big 12 Preview: Where 12 Is Actually 9

The Big 12 is slowly but surely losing major players in its conference, and the departures of Nebraska and Texas A&M look to be the most brutal to the conference's viability as a legitimate BCS auto-bid conference.  However, this conference will still play football games for some reason (because Texas told them to), so I'll inform you on the basics of each team.  Here's the preview of each team and the conference as a whole.

Texas Longhorns:

Texas is the evil dictator of the conference, and no Kansas, your opinion matters not to Bevo and Burnt Orange Nation.  The Longhorn Network will air quality programming like Texas water polo and Texas football games against Rice or something, but regardless, will expand Texas' already dominant presence in the South.  That really won't affect them this season though, or help them for that matter, because Garrett Gilbert is still their quarterback.  Gilbert was anointed the starting QB again, almost solely because he's the steadying veteran presence type, sorta like how Jake Delhomme started for the Cleveland Browns last year even though everyone (including the Browns coaching staff) knew he was going to throw 2 interceptions in each game (Hey, Garrett does that too!).  Additionally their top two returning receivers left the team; ?? to run really fast in preparation for the 2012 Olympics and ?? for personal reasons.  Malcolm Brown, the top 2011 RB recruit is who much of Texas' hopes and dreams rest upon.  Texas has lacked a top tier RB since they had Jamaal Charles (who was underutilized in college just like he is in the pros) or Cedric Benson, and now looks to finally have one.  This becomes more important when taking into account that Colt McCoy and Vince Young both had far more footspeed and mobility than Garrett Gilbert does.  Texas looted Boise State's offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, who is expected to turn Garrett Gilbert into Kellen Moore and Texas' 3rd and 4th best receiving options into Austin Pettis and Titus Young (good luck dude, you'll need it).  This isn't to say that Texas doesn't have talent, but is saying that the players Texas does put on the field bring major question marks along for the ride with them.

On the defensive side, Kheeston Randall at DT and Emmanuel Acho at LB are the standouts, and Texas' front 7 should be formidable as usual.  However, their secondary is very young and inexperienced, so they could end up in more shootouts than they'd like, given their QB situation.  Manny Diaz takes over for Will Muschamp as defensive coordinator.  Diaz is coming off a fantastic season at Mississippi State, and is an unorthodox, outside-the-box defensive mind who blitzes a lot, from all over the place.  He ran every formation imaginable at MSU, so it'll be interesting to see how his defensive mind transitions to Texas with their talent.

Iowa State:

If I asked 100 random people their thoughts on Iowa State Cyclones football, here are the likely poll results

- They play football there?
- They're a second tier school in the state of Iowa, they probably suck
- Having a natural disaster as a mascot is pretty weird

Here is Clone Chronicles' (Iowa State's blog on SBNation) quick synopsis of the outlook on 2011 Cyclones football:

We are the Iowa State Cyclones, we're about to play the nation's 2nd hardest schedule, and we may not even have a conference to call home next year. We seem to be the perpetual punchline to the sad joke that is the Big XII's death rattles. 

An afterthought (to say the least) on the Division-I football landscape, Iowa State actually had a fairly big year for themselves, beating Texas and Texas Tech and finishing 5-7, which for them was a major accomplishment.  Unfortunately, they lost their QB in Austen Arnaud, are without their leading rusher Alexander Robinson, and lost their top two receivers to graduation.  On the fortunate side (for those of us fans who like awesome names), Steele Jantz will lead the Cyclones onto the field for their mercy killings at the hands of any respectable Big 12 team this fall.  Yes, Steele Jantz is a real name.  Steele is a JuCo transfer who has some speed, rushing for 601 yards and over 10 touchdowns last year, and threw for 3,000+ yards.  But he is not the next Cam Newton or anything close in all likelihood, so obviously expectations for this offense should be tempered.  They were ranked 95th in passing offense last year, and I wouldn't expect much better this year.  They do return 3 starters on the OL, and hopefully that will help their collection of RBs do a decent job establishing a running game.  The defense is a sieve, and there's really not much else to say about it.  I've already spent too much time on Iowa State to be honest.  Unless Steele Jantz is the second coming, expect a 4-8 season or something like it.

Nebraska Cornhuskers:


Taking their ethanol harvesters to the Big 10, because Nebraska wants to be in a more prestigious conference, but a conference still too dumb to count how many members it has.

Colorado Buffaloes:

Colorado is now considered a Pacific Coast school upon their induction into the Pac-12.  Yeah, sure, and the next thing you'll tell me is that the Big East, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 will go after schools in Texas.

/oh wait, that really happened

Baylor Bears:


Baylor should really petition to have their mascot changed to the Griffins and put a big sticker of Robert Griffin III on their helmet, because he's the only thing keeping them anywhere close to relevance.  The rest of this team is pretty untalented, but Robert Griffin is the southern version of Denard Robinson, so he's kept Baylor afloat, sort of.  He's possibly a better dual-threat QB than Denard too, as he completed a remarkable 67% of his passes last year, throwing for 3,501 yards, a 22:8 TD:INT ratio, and also adding 653 rushing yards.  Griffin is a danger, and could represent big problems for teams whose front 7 is unsettled or ineffective.

Now for the negative.  Baylor lost the following this offseason:
- 6 of their 7 leading tacklers on defense
- Their leading rusher, Jay Finley (over 1,200 yards in 2010)
- Their second receiver, Thomas Gordon (714 yards in 2010)
- Danny Watkins, a starting OT who was drafted in the 1st round of 2011's NFL Draft

That's quite a bit to replace, and it honestly just means Robert Griffin will be shouldering the load of the Baylor Bears this year.  More accurately, his knees will be carrying the team.  Griffin tore his ACL two years ago and missed an entire season, so keeping him healthy is crucial.  If Griffin goes down, this team may be lucky to win two games in his absence.  He's one of the more talented players in America, and is definitely one to watch this year.  Him even getting Baylor to another bowl would be a phenomenal achievement, but past that, it's not realistic to expect much else.  They'll probably get one upset in late October or November, but they'll be a very middling team otherwise.  

Kansas Jayhawks:  

There's not much to be excited about here.  Long gone are the days of Todd Reesing at quarterback and a surprisingly effective offense that led Kansas to national prominence.  Now here are the days of Turner Gill at head coach and losing to North Dakota State.  Kansas will be very bad in all likelihood and struggle to make a bowl again.  Sophomore runningback James Sims is one of the few exciting players on the team, the rest of the team is fairly devoid of talent.  Linebacker Darius Willis, who has NFL potential, followed Gill from Buffalo to Kansas, and will lead the defense this year.  QB Jordan Webb wins the QB position by default, as the top contender Brock Berglund was dismissed by the team due to troubles off the field.  As a team, Kansas didn't even reach 2,000 total passing yards, and threw more interceptions than touchdowns.  The fact that Jordan Webb was the primary QB for that abomination of a passing game last year doesn't exactly inspire confidence that it stands to improve.  Kansas will struggle to make a bowl again, and will be the whipping boy of the Big 12.  Even Iowa State thinks Kansas is pathetic.

Fans are already lining up at Allen Fieldhouse chanting Rock Chalk Jayhawk, because they know the only sport they'll look forward to this fall is basketball.  Okay, I'll stop piling on, I think you get the picture.


Kansas State Wildcats:  

What can Brown do for you?  If you're Miami or Tennessee, they can leave your program in the dust and become Kansas State Wildcats.  The brothers Brown, Arthur (MLB) and Bryce (RB), look to have major impacts on the Wildcats' season this year.  Bryce will likely shoulder most of the offensive load, especially with the graduation of QB Carson Coffman and the departure of RB Daniel Thomas to the NFL.  QB Collin Klein will take the snaps this year, and his versatility (nearly 5 yards per carry last season in 76 carries) will help keep defenses honest, but it remains to be seen how effective of a passer he'll be.

On defense, Kansas State was 119th in stopping the run last year, allowing over 230 rushing yards per game, even in the pass-happy Big 12.  They're hoping Arthur Brown can help stop the ebb and flow of the front 7, but he may not be enough.

Kansas State has some potential given the talent of the Brown brothers, but the team as a whole isn't overly talented.  It's foolish to expect more than a 6-6 or 7-5 season from KSU this year honestly.


Texas A&M Aggies: 

Within the last 24 hours, A&M announced they're leaving the Big 12 in the dust to go become a mediocre SEC team.  They may stand to make more money as the SEC will now enter the Texas market, but their future prospects are much more dim.

Now for this year's team.  Former receiver Ryan Tannehill was a revelation at quarterback last season, and stole the job from perennial underachiever Jerrod Johnson.  Once Tannehill took control of the team, the Aggies made a push at the top of the Big 12, and went to the Cotton Bowl, only to be undressed on national TV by Jordan Jefferson.  However, they begin this season in the top 10 of almost every poll and are a dark horse national championship contender.  Their offense features two great RBs in Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael, and one of the nation's top receivers in Jeff Fuller along with the dependable Ryan Swope flanking him.  Overall the Aggies return 10 offensive starters, meaning four offensive lineman also return.  This continuity is expected to allow the Aggies to improve their offensive production from the already impressive 443 yards and 30.3 points per game they put up last season.

A&M also returns 8 defensive starters, but did lose two linebackers, the most important obviously being Von Miller, who was drafted 2nd overall in the 2011 NFL Draft.  Their defense could be above average thanks to continuity, but losing three members of the front 7 could greatly downgrade their pass rush.  It's yet to be seen, and this is the major storyline to watch with the Aggies.  There isn't a much better QB-RB-WR combo than Tannehill-Gray-Fuller, but if the defense can't hold its own, the Aggies may be in for a disappointing season.


Texas Tech Red Raiders:  

While Mike Leach wasn't at the helms, Tommy Tuberville and his offensive coordinator Neal Brown still ran a pass-happy, up-tempo offense.  Brown was formerly the offensive coordinator at Troy, who employed the same type of offense during his tenure, and was highlighted as a top 10 offensive coordinator in Division I by Yahoo! Sports recently.  The major storyline this year for the Red Raiders will be the development of new starter, Seth Doege.  Doege has thrown 65 passes in his college career, and will be at the helm of one of the fastest paced offenses in college football, where he'll be expected to throw 500-600 passes.  Their early tune-up games will be important to build his confidence.  Tuberville did make sure that Texas Tech at least attempted to establish a running game however, and Eric Stephens, who rushed for 668 yards last year as a backup, will take over as primary ball carrier.  Texas Tech's spread passing game can create stars, such as Danny Amendola and Michael Crabtree, but there doesn't seem to be a true number one option here, so look for many receivers to contribute this year.

On defense, Texas Tech stole away Chad Glasgow from TCU to be their defensive coordinator, and immediately, he installed his 4-2-5 defense that TCU is famous for.  In the pass-happy Big 12, this approach may be a very shrewd one, and could help improve Tech's defense that was abysmal last year.  In recent quotes, Tuberville expects a lot of freshmen and young players to contribute this year, so major improvement on defense may have to wait until 2012.  They have the foundation in place with the coaching staff, now it's about assembling the talent to place under their control.  Tech could be a 7 to 8 win team this year, but I wouldn't expect much more from a team with a lot of question marks.


Missouri Tigers: 

The Tigers lose quarterback Blaine Gabbert to the NFL but retain most of their skill players, including WR T.J. Moe and All-American Tight End Michael Egnew, who has a wide receiver skillset.  Sophomore James Franklin will play QB this year, and has the confidence of his teammates, but how effective will he be in his first year?  He possesses the versatility to allow for the offense to remain largely the same, including designed QB runs and zone reads.  Mizzou's greatest strength is that they had the top defense in the Big 12 last year, and return all their linebackers and linemen other than Aldon Smith who declared for the NFL Draft.  They'll replace a couple members of the secondary, but the pressure that the front 7 will generate will help the secondary grow throughout the year.  They led the Big 12 in sacks last year, and very well may do the same again.  Missouri is a dark horse in the Big 12, and all their hopes and dreams really rest on the shoulders of QB James Franklin.  If he's effective enough, they'll be Big 12 title contenders.  If he struggles through growing pains, they'll be 7-5 or 8-4.  I think Franklin can do a fine job at QB given his pedigree and that he has a year in the system, so I expect Mizzou to be a surprise team this season.


Oklahoma Sooners:


The Oklahoma Sooners have been awarded yet another paper championship!  As far as Bob Stoops is concerned, he has at least five championships.  Who needs a trophy to commemorate them, he has preseason polls!  The Sooners are loaded on offense per usual, with a great pocket quarterback that will throw for three billion yards and hundreds of touchdowns.  Their WR corps is largely intact from last year as well, returning all their top receivers from last year, including the sensational Ryan Broyles.  He's not extremely fast, but he's quick as can be, and had 100+ catches last year.  The running game will be the major question after the loss of RB Demarco Murray.  They'll go with a RB by committee until somebody stands out, but this probably isn't as big of a concern as many are making it out to be.  The offense will run smoothly, even without offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson who left to coach Indiana.

The defense loses a few pieces, and tragically lost LB Austin Box, who died this offseason.  LB Travis Lewis, who has first round NFL talent, will miss the first month (at least) after suffering a serious injury as well.  Lewis was voted Big 12 Preseason Defensive Player of the Year, so keep an eye on this.  DE Ronnell Lewis is also very questionable this season, as he may be ruled academically ineligible.  Losing these 3 would hit the defense very hard, and would strip it of 3 of its best returning players.  The Sooners also lost DE Austin Beal to the draft, who Ronnell was supposed to replace this year.  The Sooners retained most of their defense from last year, so in October, if both Lewis defenders are playing, the prognosis for Oklahoma is very good.  Oklahoma will have two new starting safeties this year, but return both top cornerbacks, which should help.  If the defense can be above average, Oklahoma has the potential to make the National
Championship.  Neither Auburn or Oregon had standout defenses last year, but both thoroughly dominated their schedules thanks to overwhelming offenses.  The landscape of college football is changing, and offense has taken precedence over defense.  The Sooners have a big showdown in Week 3 with Florida State.  If they get through that, the Sooners are true contenders, and may run the gambit undefeated.


Oklahoma State Cowboys:


This is the team carrying on the Big 12 stereotype until the day the conference dies (ETA: 2013): Nothing even resembling a competent defense, but look at that QB throw 50 passes and put up 40 points!  Offensive mastermind Dana Holgorsen set up shop in Stillwater last year, and led Oklahoma State to a top 3 offense in the country with a 26 year old quarterback that had never started a game and a sophomore receiver who apparently hid his game-breaking ability in his freshman season.  Brandon Weeden is the aforementioned quarterback, and he completed over 100 passes for almost 1,800 yards to Justin Blackmon, the aforementioned receiver.  Blackmon won the Biletnikoff last year, and could very well win it again, along with finishing top-5 in Heisman voting.  While they lost Holgorsen to West Virginia, the offense should still run smoothly with Weeden at the helms.  They may pass even more however due to the graduation of star RB Kendall Hunter.  The major question is "Can Okie State be a top-3 offense like they were last year?", because if new offensive coordinator Todd Monken can't lead them to such production, the team may struggle.

The Cowboys lose their two starting DTs as well as their best DE, Ugo Chinasa, and as such, may struggle even more to generate a legitimate pass rush.  Their LB crew was largely undecided until this past week, and   not for good reasons.  Their secondary isn't great either.  Mike Gundy is an offensive mind at head coach and spends far more time on that gameplan, so defense falls by the wayside.  Additionally, the Cowboys lose Lou Groza award winner (best kicker in the country) Dan Bailey, so they'll be grooming a new kicker as well.  There are a lot of question marks here, and there may be too many for me to predict a phenomenal season for the Cowboys as their top-15 ranking in most polls suggests.  In the Big 12, they'll finish in the top half undoubtedly, and probably be one of the better teams, but they're realistically a 9-3 or 10-2 type team.  

Projected Finish:
1. Oklahoma
2. Texas A&M
3. Missouri
4. Oklahoma State
5. Texas
6. Texas Tech
7. Baylor
8. Kansas State
9. Iowa St.
10. Kansas

8/30/11

Debris Caution: AdvoCare 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


I remember when Atlanta Motor Speedway was rebuilt in 1997. In case you don't, basically the frontstretch and the backstretch were swapped in an attempt to standardize the track like other ovals that Speedway Motorsports owns. There were some other alterations as well but that change still sticks out to me. To say that Atlanta is a tradition on the NASCAR circuit would be an understatement and this track in particular has a special tie to yours truly. After the 2009 move to Labor Day weekend this became my sort of "birthday" track. Attention NASCAR: I would have preferred a road course, but a night race is alright, I won't even ask for a gift receipt.

Since my birthday is on the second, let's start with the Blue Deuce. I know, I know, I've been talking about Brad Keselowski for weeks now. Then again, how can you not mention a guy who has finished first, second, third, and first in the past month? Even though he has two starts in the Sprint Cup (one DNF and an average finish of 30.5) and four in the Nationwide Series (two top-10s, one of which was a top-5) he's still a contender to win this week. Keselowski has bolted up the standings so quickly that he is now only 21 points out of tenth place. He's already locked in to The Chase as a wild card so look for the team to potentially take some risks this week and just go for the win again. Don't bet against Kes right now and expect a top-5, if not top-3 performance.

If there is one guy right now that needed to see Atlanta Motor Speedway, it was Tony Stewart. From my browsing yesterday and this morning it seems like every blogger and expert is writing off Stewart's chances, saying that he's headed in the wrong direction and some even say he may miss The Chase. With two races left before the cutoff and his lead all but gone (as I said, 21 ahead of Kes but only 22 ahead of Clint Bowyer) it seems there is a good chance. But here is what you need to know: in 24 career starts, Stewart has an average finish of 11.6 at Atlanta. He has nine top-5s in that span and 12 top-10s and he absolutely has to have a strong finish on Saturday. Richmond looms next week and that is easily Bowyer's best track. I expect a top-10 finish, maybe even higher, and if he doesn't watch his mirror all race for the #2 and #33 he may pull a reversal and just win the whole thing.

8/23/11

Debris Caution: Irwin Tools Night Race

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


Ah, Bristol Motor Speedway. I remember growing up and playing NASCAR '98 and causing complete chaos on the track with its paintball mode. Still, no track out there is quite as distinct and this is a track that divides drivers. Out of the past nine races eight drivers have five or more top-10s (Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Matt Kenseth, Clint Bowyer, and Kasey Kahne). Think about that for a moment. Eighty percent of the top-10 finishers in the past five years have been there more than half the time. It's a track that, when mastered, becomes a chance of contenders to gain a lot of ground in the standings.

So who exactly are the favorites to win the Irwin Tools Night Race? Well, not to sound like a broken record but it's the Busch brothers. Kurt has won five times in 21 career races and brother Kyle has another five in just 13 career starts. Kyle won the spring race and coming off of a win last week he looks to be a prime candidate to win yet again. It's really hard to argue against him, too, because his average finish of 8.7 is second among active drivers. Kurt is no slouch either, though, at a 10.5 average finish and coming off of a week that saw him drop two more spots in the points standings (though he's safely in there, barring the most dramatic collapse imaginable) he will be pressing to one-up his brother and break that time with Kyle and Jeff Gordon as the winningest active driver at Bristol.

As I learned last week, though, it's not as much fun to pick safe bets. The Busch brothers will definitely be on my fantasy NASCAR team and I'll probably start Kyle when all is said and done (since both are A-List drivers on Yahoo!), but I'm going to throw a Hail Mary here. The one driver out there that needs a win more than anyone actually has a higher average finish than Kyle Busch. That driver is Dale Earnhardt Jr. and I am going to call for him to win this week. Shocked? Don't be, Earnhardt Jr. has 12 top-10s, seven of which were top-5s, and a win (granted it came in 2004) in his past 19 starts. Everyone points to Daytona as Dale's best track, and granted he has a lot of great moments there, he is actually better at Bristol (career finish of 15.0 in 24 Daytona races and 11.5 in 23 at BMS). Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart are the only drivers in The Chase without wins and I expect that if Junebug is going to win this year, it will be on Saturday.

I can't have a blog post about NASCAR nowadays without mentioning Brad Keselowski. If he was white hot last week then I don't know what to say about the guy this week. The past three weeks he has finished first, second, and third, so it's only logical that Kes will finish fourth this week at Bristol. In all seriousness, Kes won in the Nationwide Series at Bristol and while his 16.7 average finish at the Sprint Cup level leaves a lot to be desired, there's something to be said about having a teammate who knows his way around the track and there's that whole momentum thing. Anything besides a fourth place finish will be disappointing, so get on it, Keselowski.

Originally I had planned to go with Matt Kenseth as my darkhorse this week, but how can a guy who has won at Bristol twice, has an average finish of 9.6 at the track, and sits fifth in points be considered anything close to that of a darkhorse? Since I seem to be going boom-or-bust this week, I may as well go with someone that could change the entire landscape of the points standings. Clint Bowyer sits 11th in points at the moment and without a win he would need to pass Stewart (24 points behind) or Earnhardt Jr. (30 points behind) to secure his spot. I opened by saying that this is a track that can be a great spot to gain some ground in the standings and that's exactly what Bowyer needs to do. In the past five years he has bested Stewart at just about everything Bristol related (Bowyer's five top-10s and three top-5s beat Stewart's three and two respectively and his average finish of 14.9 bests Stewart's 17.7). The problem with Bowyer is the DNFs (two, which is the most of non start-and-parkers and puts him in the company of David Gilliland, Casey Mears, and Michael Waltrip) and Stewart has finished each of his nine most recent starts. If Bowyer wants to make The Chase, he has to beat Stewart this week (by quite a bit, actually).

Just so you know, the earthquake happened in the middle of writing this.

8/18/11

Call to the Bullpen: Fantasy Playoff Stretch Run Edition


Call to the Bullpen is a regular feature that goes through every bullpen in baseball, and tells you, the fantasy players, which relievers are worth speculative or immediate adds to your team.  Saves are invaluable in fantasy baseball, and this column will be on top of every closer situation.

AL East:
Yankees: Can you envision any scenario where Mariano Rivera is moved from the big chair?

Red Sox: In 50.2 IP, Jonathan Papelbon has only walked eight batters. He hasn't allowed a run since July 16 and only has one blown save on the year (way back in May against the Twins). He'll get a hefty contract in the offseason but until then he's the guy in Boston.

Rays: Bryan wrote before that Kyle Farnsworth has been dominant and the only thing that could derail his fantasy value would be a trade. Well that didn't happen and Farnsworth is still chugging along.

Blue Jays: Since we last visited the Blue Jays it looked like Jon Rauch had taken the reigns of the closing gig. Then he had an appendectomy on the 16th and now it looks like we'll soon see a return to the Frank Francisco experience. I wouldn't pin my championship hopes on either guy at this point but saves are saves.

Orioles: This situation is a mess. Kevin Gregg took an 8-1 lead on August 14 and turned in a 0.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 BB performance to make the game a save situation for Jim Johnson. Since then the Orioles haven't had a save situation but watch it carefully if you're desperate for saves.

AL Central
White Sox: Just when you think Sergio Santos is cruising along, Ozzie Guillen has Chris Sale close out game. Sale has two saves this month to Santos' three and this led to Santos, Guillen, and pitching coach Don Cooper having a sit-down meeting to clarify just what his status is. Sale will be moved to the rotation next year so it won't be a long term problem but this could be a scenario where it's a 60/40 split in favor of Santos the rest of the year with Sale facing team's best lefties.

Twins: While he isn't the Joe Nathan of old, he is the unquestioned closer in Minnesota.

Indians: When Bryan checked on Chris Perez he was 22 SV to 2 BS. Now he's at 26 SV and 3 BS. The K/BB ratio is worrisome (28/22) but he gets the job done.

Tigers: Jose Valverde and his crazy dances have this one locked up. Fun fact: he hasn't blown a save all year.

Royals: Joakim Soria wasn't traded so he's still the guy in KC.

AL West
Rangers: Neftali Feliz has been very good as of late but he does have Mike Adams and Koji Uehara looking over his shoulder. Next year will be interesting as I'm sure the Feliz-to-the-rotation rumblings will be rekindled now that the Rangers have viable options behind him. For the rest of the year it's Feliz's job to lose but if he should stumble, Adams is the handcuff (one earned run in 8.1 IP since coming over from San Diego).

Mariners: Brandon League. Enough said.

Athletics: Andrew Bailey was dangled in trade rumors but that never materialized. No one wants to go back to the Brian Fuentes experience, trust me.

Angels: Jordan Walden blew his eighth save on Sunday but he will be the closer for the Angels for the rest of the year. 

NL East
Mets: Jason Isringhausen got his 300th save and now the Mets want to see what Bobby Parnell can do. Though Parnell doesn't really have anything that leaps out at you, there is one number in his favor: 97. That's what his fastball clocks in at.

Braves: I am envious of Braves fans who have Jonny Venters in the eighth and Craig Kimbrel in the ninth. Kimbrel is the unquestioned closer and that's for one major reason: 94 Ks in 59.2 IP. When you have a guy who is a legitimate threat to strikeout the side every time out and doesn't have control issues (more on that in a few) you have something special. Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! Sports ranked Kimbrel as his top closer for fantasy purposes and I have to agree.

Nationals: Drew Storen has been great. Tyler Clippard may be the better pitcher, but Storen is the closer.

Marlins: Leo Nunez wasn't traded at the deadline and this is still his job. The Marlins would be well-served to trade him in the offseason, though.

Phillies: Ryan Madson has a firm grip on the closing gig in Philadelphia. The years of "Brad Lidge is my closer, and closers close games" are an afterthought. Madson is set to be a free agent in the offseason and if he bolts, look for Antonio Bastardo to step in next year.

NL Central
Cubs: I talked about control issues and this right here is what I was talking about. Carlos Marmol has 73 Ks in 57.1 IP but when he blows saves, he blows them in spectacular fashion (take a gander at this from Tuesday). If Marmol is shut down (his velocity is down and some are saying he may need some extra rest) then Kerry Wood would step in to close.

Cardinals: Even with the blown save on Tuesday, this is Fernando Salas' job. Mitchell Boggs and Kyle McClellan are the names to monitor but don't count on either taking the job from Salas. 

Astros: Has Mark Melancon imploded yet? No? Oh, well then he's Houston's closer.

Pirates: Joel Hanrahan. Next.

Reds: Francisco Cordero has a long leash in Cincinatti. I can't see anyone taking the job from him for the rest of the year.

Brewers: John Axford leads the league in saves. Francisco Rodriguez may be the second best setup man in baseball behind Jonny Venters in Atlanta. K-Rod may poach some saves as the season winds down, but Axford is the Brew Crew's unquestioned closer.

NL West
Dodgers: Javy Guerra is in no danger of losing his job.

Giants: Brian Wilson is definitely San Francisco's closer but he is dealing with elbow inflammation. The Beard visited Dr. James Andrews and was told to rest. Wilson owners who are looking for a handcuff may consider Sergio Romo (who is currently on the DL with elbow inflammation himself, but may come off on the 25th) or Ramon Ramirez (who actually got the Giants' last save).

Diamondbacks: J.J. Putz may not be the dominant strikeout machine he was in Seattle but he is one of baseball's best closers on the year. If he can stay healthy he'll finish as one of the best in baseball, but if he gets nicked up immediately rush out and grab David Hernandez.

Rockies: This may shock you, but Huston Street is injured (again). Set-up man Matt Lindstrom is also injured (another surprise, I'm sure). That leaves Rafael Betancourt and his thousand years between pitches to close. Betancourt has been pretty good this year but Street can come back as early as August 24th. Grab Betancourt anyway, though, because there's no guarantee that Street or Lindstrom are healthy the rest of the year.

Padres: Remember when this was the most interesting situation at the trade deadline? Now it's arguably the biggest lock in baseball. Heath Bell is the Padres' closer for the rest of the year and we'll have to see if he is brought back next year by the team.

8/17/11

Debris Caution: Pure Michigan 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


You know how I said I love road courses? Yeah, Monday definitely did not disappoint. With that said, this week the NASCAR schedule pulls into Bryan's home state of Michigan for the Pure Michigan 400. It seems like every time you turn around NASCAR is at an oval but I digress. What you can expect this week is for the usual suspects but I am going to choose to start with someone who is on a roll right now.

Last week, Brad Keselowski was my opener and this week he will bat leadoff once again. Kes is white hot right now and it seems like the more beat up the guy is, the better he races. I'm not going to suggest throwing him in the ring with Georges St- Pierre, but maybe a jammed finger from a game of pickup basketball can do the trick. At any rate, Kes finished 25th when the Sprint Cup invaded Michigan earlier this year and his average finish of 27.5 in four races inspires little confidence. On the flip side, in the Nationwide Series he has two wins and three top-10s in five starts at MIS. Just like last week, expect Kes to buck the trend and post a top-10 this week at Michigan. If you hear about any sort of injury between now and Sunday, bump that up to a top-5.

There is absolutely no one better at Michigan than Carl Edwards. Edwards has 14 starts and 12 top-10s. Think about that for a moment. Nine of those were top-5s and two of those were wins. His average finish is 6.2 and he has finished every race. Both of his wins have come in the last five years and when looking only at that time period he is even more dominant (nine starts, eight top-10s, 6 top-5s, 2 wins, and an average finish of 4.9). After having sole possession of the points lead taken away by Kyle Busch last week, expect Edwards to come out at his best and make a statement by winning on Sunday.

8/10/11

Roto Roundup Fantasy Football: Sleepers

Roto Roundup is a weekly feature highlighting fantasy players who are trending upward or downward over recent weeks. We'll identify players you should attempt to trade or trade for, as well as players you should pick up from free agency, or cut bait with and send to free agency.


We are continuing our fantasy football blowout with our sleepers. These are guys that will be drafted as fringe starters, if not backups. The both of us subscribe to the school of thought that sometimes it is better to take a risk than buying low-ceiling retreads (hello there, Jamal Lewis circa 2008 and 2009). Fantasy production is the second most inconsistent thing in the NFL behind ACLs. If you find yourself looking at a bland roster feel free to take a gamble on our guys. Who knows, maybe they will end up starting for your team (or your free agent wire).

Quarterback:


Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams, ADP: 113, Average Round: 12th

If you read our previous post you already know that I think Bradford is an immense bargain. The biggest thing you can give a young quarterback is a strong running game and few are better than Steven Jackson. It also doesn't hurt when the team upgrades his weapons with the additions of Mike Sims-Walker and a healthy Donnie Avery. In fact his favorite target, Danny Amendola, is also returning and will probably have an even better year out of the slot. Really, there's so much to like with Bradford and I didn't even touch on his schedule. He has a tough Week 16 matchup at Pittsburgh and that is when the majority of fantasy titles are decided. Don't be afraid if the initial numbers are rough as he starts off the year against Philadelphia, at the New York Giants, and against Baltimore, but he should round into form in the end. Draft with confidence but keep an eye on a capable backup for the early going and for that Steelers matchup.

Projection: 16 GS, 3,900 yards, 22 TD, 12 INT

- Scott

Matt Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions, ADP: 95

Stafford scares almost every fantasy owner there is, since he's seemingly made of glass, but this could be the year he turns it around.  When on the field, Stafford has shown flashes of greatness, and Shaun Hill directed the offense to strong success in his time on the field. While Mikel Leshoure has torn his achilles and is out for the season, Jahvid Best and Jerome Harrison will do a fine job at RB.  Calvin Johnson saw more targets towards the end of last year, and should continue to be forcefed the ball this year, and he has safety valves in the slot receiver (whether it's Titus Young or Nate Burleson), and Brandon Pettigrew/Tony Scheffler at TE.  The OL was actually above average as well last year, and should be at least average this year.  Look for Stafford to do big things this year, and make a profit for you as a QB regularly going in the 8th-9th round.  I would handcuff him with Shaun Hill personally just in case, and reap the benefits of the Lions offense this year.

Projection: 14 GS, 3,400 yards, 25 TD, 14 INT
 
 - Bryan

Runningback:

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears, ADP: 21, Average Round: 2

For some reason, Forte is being severely overlooked this season as a viable RB1.  I understand that Marion Barber may take some goal line carries, but Forte still accounted for 9 touchdowns himself last year.  Given how poor the Bears' O-Line was, he still rushed for over 4 yards a carry, which is solid.  Forte is the biggest threat out of the backfield though, and we all know Martz loves to throw the ball a lot.  He's basically a lock for 50+ catches, 500 yards, and a few touchdowns in the air.  Forte's versatility serves him well in a Bears offense without a dominant #1 option, and he may see even more passes without Greg Olsen there.  Don't hesitate to snatch up Forte, he'll give you at least 1,500 yards, around 8-10 TDs, and in PPR leagues may be a top 10 option.

Projection: 250 carries, 1,000 yards, 55 catches, 540 yards, 8 total TDs


- Bryan

CJ Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills, ADP: 93, Average Round: 10


Spiller has led to some interesting conversations between Bryan and I. Both of us love his potential and both of us also hate his situation. Fred Jackson is a very good running back, underrated if anything, and quite capable of holding down that starting job and the lion's share of carries for the foreseeable future. However, money does strange things to NFL teams and if you are paying CJ Spiller first round, top-10 pick money, you have to play him. Spiller is going to get plenty of touches and if he can stay healthy he has all of the talent to have a Jamaal Charles-like breakout. Few guys can break open an 80+ yard rushing TD and Spiller is among them. Thing is, that won't happen this year. If he doesn't get a long TD he likely won't get one at all because Jackson will get almost all of the goal line carries. Draft him as a lottery ticket and watch the Buffalo situation closely. If Jackson were to go down, Spiller would have the door wide open to start and the passing game is just good enough to keep opposing defenses from stacking the box. If your league counts return TDs you may have to reach a little bit, though.


Projection: 130 carries, 600 yards, 45 catches, 360 yards, 5 total TDs


- Scott


Wide Receiver:


Mario Manningham, WR, New York Giants, ADP: 73, Average Round: 9


Last year, I missed out on Manningham in every one of my drafts. Even though I had a gut feeling on the guy I always seemed to get outbid by someone else and I paid the price. This year, even if I have to reach a round early, I plan to own Super Mario somewhere. He was overlooked last year with Hakeem Nicks finally living up to his potential and Steve Smith coming off a 1200 yard season, but this year the door is wide open. Kevin Boss and Smith (as I was typing this the news broke that he has signed with the Philadelphia Eagles) have departed, and Nicks will draw a lot of attention coming off a campaign that included 11 touchdowns. Manningham won't exactly catch teams off guard after finishing the season with three straight 100+ yard games and four TDs but with the extra targets he may very well be the most productive NYG receiver. Reach for him or be prepared to regret it.


Projection: 72 catches, 1100 yards, 8 TDs

- Scott

Danny Amendola, WR, St. Louis Rams, ADP: 126, Average Round: 11

In order for Bradford to be a fantasy sleeper, he's going to have to rely on a go to receiver, and Amendola in the slot has become exactly that.  Danny is basically a poor man's Wes Welker in St. Louis' offense, and his surehandedness and agility have made him Bradford's favorite target.  Last year Danny had 85 receptions, and while they only went for 639 yards, he's a valuable PPR guy.  Those yard totals won't stay that low, as Bradford should have more confidence and will be allowed to throw the ball downfield more.  While the Rams brought in Austin Pettis, Mike Sims-Walker and other receivers, Amendola will see the most targets.  He also may add one or two TDs as a return man for the Rams, so there's upside at that end too.  If your league counts return yards, Amendola should go up your board a good amount.  Overall, in the 11th round, you won't find much better than the security blanket of a top-10 caliber QB.

Projection: 90 catches, 800 yards, 6 TDs

Tight End:



Chris Cooley, TE, Washington Redskins, ADP: 137,

Consistently, Chris Cooley gets criminally underrated, no matter the situation in Washington.  Currently, Terrell Owens, who is coming off a torn ACL is the player drafted directly after Chris Cooley.  When Cooley finishes a full season, he's one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL, consistently.  The main con of Cooley's fantasy stock is the lack of touchdowns he scores, as he has six in the past three years, but I look for that number to increase this year given the pieces on the Redskins offense.  Santana Moss is aging, and not a #1 receiver anymore, and Armstrong is mostly a deep threat as well.  Cooley should get his usual 70 catches, and approximately 800 yards, especially since he'll be a safety valve of John Beck or Rex Grossman.  Look for the TDs to increase though this year.

Projection: 74 catches, 790 yards, 7 TDs


Jared Cook, TE, Tennessee Titans, ADP: 157, Average Round: 15


Cook is the deepest kind of sleeper. No one except those in the deepest of leagues will likely give him a second glance come draft day. He could very well be a bargain, though, and may end up being a middle-to-low end starter. Matt Hasselbeck loves throwing to TEs (look at how trendy John Carlson was as a fantasy pick over the past few years) and with Bo Scaife's departure that means a whole lot of targets for Cook. As long as Jake Locker is held off you should expect Cook to average 3-5catches a game and at 6'5" he is going to be a great goal line target. If you miss out on the top guys or don't feel like playing "New England TE Roulette" go to Jared. At the least he should be a good plug-in matchup guy throughout the year.

Projection: 60 catches, 600 yards, 5 TDs


- Scott

Defense:

Tampa Bay, DEF, ADP: 198, Average Round: 19


When Bryan and I were talking defenses and I mentioned Tampa Bay, he told me to harp on three names. First is Gerald McCoy, the Bucs' first round pick last season. Some were comparing him to Ndamukong Suh, since both play DT and were at the top of their position last year. By comparison, Suh knocked out McCoy in the first round (66 tackles, 10 sacks vs. 28 tackles, 3 sacks), even though that is a bit unfair since McCoy was dinged up last year. After getting his feet wet and getting healthier he should be better, especially with the two new additions to the Bucs defensive line: Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers. Both of those guys have some health concerns, especially Bowers, but if this young line can grow up it will be one of the best in the NFL and rack up fantasy points. The secondary is a bit suspect with Aqib Talib's legal problems and Ronde Barber is another year old and the linebacking core will be missing Barrett Ruud but this defense will be decided by its front four. This group shouldn't be your starter but you'll be hard-pressed to find a better upside in a backup. Check to see who they play during your defense's bye week and give 'em a shot.


- Scott

 Kansas City, DEF, ADP: 180, Average Round: 15th


Nothing about the Chiefs is flashy (besides Jamaal Charles), but their defense is severely underrated.  Their cornerback tandem of Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr did a very solid job last season, and Flowers is one of the better young corners in the game.  Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson are good linebackers in their own right, with Hali being one of the more devastating pass rushers in the NFL.  The addition of Kelly Gregg (formerly of Baltimore) at NT will help the push of the front line, and there's definitely talent there, with Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey flanking him.  The Chiefs also have the luxury of facing Oakland and Denver four times, and neither offense should be all that flashy.  I don't know if I'd call the Chiefs a must-start defense, but you can do far, far worse for a bye week defense or situational start defense.

- Bryan

8/9/11

Debris Caution: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


This week, the NASCAR schedule takes us to the land of turning right at Watkins Glen International. Road course racing has always been my favorite part of the NASCAR schedule and The Glen has provided some fantastic races over the year. Plus, it gives us a chance to see Boris Said's magnificent afro, and really, that's what NASCAR is all about.

Last week, Brad Keselowski held on for one of the most improbable victories I think anyone has ever seen. Just a few days after breaking his ankle and having it swell to the size of a grapefruit, then sitting through nearly two hours of rain, and then having to hold off Kyle Busch of all people, Kes managed to win his second race of the year and all but wrap up a spot in The Chase. So what can we expect as an encore from the Blue Deuce? Well, if the stats are to be believed, not much. Kes just has three races in the Sprint Cup series on road courses and his average finish is 21.7 (only one of those was at Watkins Glen, where he finished 20th). For what it's worth, he was great in the Nationwide Series (three races, three top 10s, a top 5, and an average finish of 6.3) at The Glen. I spoke about momentum being a funny thing back when I started this feature, and I think you can expect Kes to continue improving and find some success this week. Even with one bad ankle I still think he'll score his first top-10 on a road course in the Sprint Cup this Sunday.

Whenever the Sprint Cup goes to a road course you can expect to see plenty of Juan Pablo Montoya and Marcos Ambrose. Ambrose has never won a Sprint Cup race but he is one of the very best at Watkins Glen: seven races, six top-10s, five top-5s, and an average finish of 9.1 (even with the only other race being a DNF). He is the second highest in average finish (behind Tony Stewart) and generally gives himself excellent starting position (11.7). Ambrose is far too good to be winless at these road courses, and if he is going to break through it will be this weekend at The Glen. This year has been kind to first time winners (Trevor Bayne, David Ragan, Paul Menard, and Regan Smith) and I think Ambrose will join that list this weekend. Look for him to get his first week on Sunday.

Even though Montoya is far more volatile, he has been even more successful than Ambrose. In nine total races he has an average finish of 10.6, seven top-10s, and two wins. If you watch Montoya on these road courses you'll know the reason I said he is volatile, and for the uninitiated, let's just say he doesn't mind getting his bumper dirty. Montoya seems to piss off someone new every time NASCAR invades a road course and it seems oddly appropriate that he has a target on his hood. If Montoya doesn't use his car up on his bull-rushing charges to the front (which happen quite often since his pit crew doesn't do him many favors) he'll finish in the top five and challenge for the win. He'll also probably run through someone along the way.

I briefly mentioned Tony Stewart earlier, but no one has been quite as successful at WGI as Smoke. He has the highest average finish (8.6), seven wins (only two behind active leader Jeff Gordon, who has also ran 12 more races), eleven top-5s, 18 top-10s, and only a single DNF. When the NASCAR schedule mandates to turn right few, if any, are better than Stewart. Like Montoya, however, he has a tendency to get in trouble with other drivers. If not for Brian Vickers' torpedoing technique we very likely could have seen Smoke battling Kurt Busch to the end and perhaps even winning. Tony hasn't won this year and is clinging to a one point lead over Dale Earnhardt Jr. for ninth place. He needs a strong finish, or ideally a win, to lock up a slot in The Chase and he's very capable of winning this week.

I refuse to take the easy route on dark horses (sorry, Boris Said and Robby Gordon). I'm also not going to go with a guy like Kyle Busch (five top-10s in six starts), but someone more unexpected: AJ Allmendinger. Ambrose's teammate doesn't have quite as much glamour as his teammate (three starts, one top-5, one top-10, and an average finish of 9.3) but is strong on road courses (fifth highest average finish in the last 10 years). It can't be understated how vital it is to have a strong teammate who knows the ins and outs of these tracks and he works with one of the best in the business. I don't expect 'Dinger to challenge for the win unless it gets down to a fuel mileage race, but I do expect a strong showing in the top-10. Having both of the Richard Petty Motorsports cars finish near the front would be a huge boost for a team that is only going to continue getting better.

8/3/11

American League MLB Trade Deadline Grades

The trade deadline has passed, and with only the trade-by-waiver deadline yet to pass, most teams have made their final moves of the year.  Major players were available at the deadline, including Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, B.J. Upton, Ubaldo Jimenez, and others.  Teams like the Rangers and Astros were very active, while some teams in contention like the Reds and Yankees did nothing.  Read on to see how your favorite team fared at the deadline.


Roto Roundup Fantasy Football: Super Sophomores

Roto Roundup is a weekly feature highlighting fantasy players who are trending upward or downward over recent weeks. We'll identify players you should attempt to trade or trade for, as well as players you should pick up from free agency, or cut bait with and send to free agency.

Today we are taking a bit of a departure from our normal Roto Roundup programming to help you prepare for your fantasy football drafts. While many in your leagues will be targeting guys big name rookies, like A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, and Cam Newton, the value will actually lie in last year's rookie class. After their initial shine has worn off many tend to shy away in fear of sophomore slumps or uncertain production, but these are the guys that can win or lose your fantasy championship. So in an effort to help out our readers I am going to give you a peak into my cheat sheet.


8/2/11

High Men For The Heisman

We're less than a month away from the college football season! Me and Scott have decided to do a preview on the Heisman to lead up to the season, and to highlight our 5 favorites to win the award this year, as well as a few dark horses.

Often the Heisman winner can come out of nowhere, (i.e. Cam Newton last season), but more often than not, they at least have some preseason hype, like all five of our top contenders do. After the jump, their profiles and what to expect.

Debris Caution: Good Sam RV Insurance 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.

This week the NASCAR schedule heads into Pocono Raceway for the Good Sam RV Insurance 500. When the Sprint Cup series last invaded Pennsylvania it was all about Jeff Gordon and the Busch Bros. So there is no better place to start than that very same top three when looking at this weekend's event.

Jeff Gordon is coming off of a disappointing second place finish at the Brickyard 400. Though most drivers would happily take the points and move on, Gordon was consistently the fastest car on the track. At the end he made a surge to the front that just fell short. I don't really know why Gordon went through the slump he did the past two years but something seems to have clicked between him and new crew chief Alan Gustafson this year. Coming into Pocono, Gordon is one of the track's most dominant racers. In 37 career races at the track he has 26 top-10s, 17 top-5s, and five wins. Five of his other starts have ended with DNFs but his average finish is still third among active drivers (10.3). Look for him to be near the front all day once again and challenge for the win.

As for the Busch bros, Kurt has far more success and experience at the track than his younger brother Kyle. Kurt has started 21 races and finished in the top-10 11 times. He also has eight top-5s and two victories but his average finish is near the middle of the pack (16.1). Kurt grabbed his first pole at the track earlier this year when he was in the midst of winning three straight so don't expect him to start on the front row this week. I'm calling for a strong finish as Kurt will be looking to rebound after losing three spots in The Chase, but no victory. Rowdy Busch has been a bit of an enigma at Pocono. In 13 career starts he has four top -10s, three top-5s, and 2 DNFs. His average finish is 18.8 and he has never won at the track. Kyle is a threat to win no matter where the Sprint Cup series goes but Pocono is not one of his favorite locales. His older brother will probably get the best of him once again but look for Kyle to sneak his way into another top-10 finish.

The winningest active driver at Pocono in the past 10 years, by no real surprise, is Denny Hamlin. Even though this season seems like a bit of a lost cause following last year (where he almost dethroned Jimmie Johnson), Denny is still comfortably in the top 12 (currently 11th, 13 points ahead of Clint Bowyer and 27 up on 13th place Greg Biffle) and barring a collapse he will make the cutoff. However, one big thing has changed: after winning eight races last year, Hamlin only has one (at Michigan) in this year's campaign. Another win would go a long way towards improving his chances and there's no better place than Pocono (well, except Martinsville) for Denny to break through. Along with his four wins (only one behind Jeff Gordon and Bill Elliott, who lead active drivers since 1975), he has seven top-5s, eight top-10s, and an average finish of 9.2. He also has the best average start of all drivers (5.9) and has completed each of his 11 races. Denny had a disappointing finish of 19th in June's race but don't expect a repeat, he'll finish in the top-5.

My pick to win this race is currently the series' #2 man: Jimmie Johnson. He is second behind Hamlin in average finish (9.3, only a tenth behind in eight more career races). He is also sitting second in points, eleven behind Carl Edwards. If he won he would have, you guessed it, his second victory on the year. I know, Jimmie has that sixth championship on his mind but I'm sure he would love to win at Pocono. In 19 career starts he has 13 top-10s, seven top-5s, and two victories. The biggest thing to check for Jimmie, though, is the DNF department, and this week we find another good sign: zero DNFs. He finished fourth in June and look for him to come in first this weekend.

My dark horse this week is a bit of a reach. Though I was going to go with either Carl Edwards or Tony Stewart, you really can't say either of those guys would be a surprise. Both of them have won two races a piece at the track and both have a lot of momentum going into this race. So with that, I am choosing a guy who has also won at Pocono: Kasey Kahne. In 15 career starts Kahne also has five top-10s and three top-5s. He also has a sparkling average start position of 9.4, which is fifth among active drivers (behind Hamlin, Johnson, Mark Martin, and Ryan Newman). Kahne is a great driver, and perhaps the uncertainty of Red Bull Racing has affected him this year (currently he sits in 15th in the standings). Maybe he is also looking longingly at his future employer, Hendrick Motorsports and is raring to get his hands on the #5. I'm unsure what ails Kasey this year but expect him to finish well this weekend and challenge for the win.

Roto Roundup Fantasy Baseball: Week of August 1st

Roto Roundup is a weekly feature highlighting fantasy players who are trending upward or downward over recent weeks.  We'll identify players you should attempt to trade or trade for, as well as players you should pick up from free agency, or cut bait with and send to free agency.

Godzilla is back:  Hideki Matsui has flown under the radar in Oakland, and hasn't performed up to expectations to be honest.. except over the past 14 days.  Matsui has posted a .511 average, 1.436 OPS, scored 11 runs, and hit 3 HRs with 14 RBIs over the past 2 weeks, and should be targeted in all leagues while he's hot.  He's only 24% owned in Yahoo! leagues and has skyrocketed from 10.8% ownership to 55.2% ownership in ESPN leagues over the past 7 days.  Matsui is a good hitter, and could just be finding his way back to the respectable lines he generally posts.  He's an aging hitter, but throw a flyer Godzilla's way, he won't bite.

Leaving a salty taste: In Boston, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has quietly been very solid at catcher for the Red Sox, and may finally be living up to the hype that accompanied him as a top prospect in his early years.  On the season, "Salty" has posted a very respectable .261/.327/.464 line at catcher, with 9 HRs, 34 RBIs, and 32 runs.  While the counting stats don't jump out at you necessarily, his June and July slash lines should. 

June: .327/.407/.538, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 8 R in 52 AB
July: .283/.343/.550, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 12 R in 60 AB

Those are definitely strong lines, and would make him one of the better catchers in fantasy baseball if he played every night.  The problem is, he's not a full-time starter and struggles against left-handed pitchers.  However, in a daily league, playing him whenever he's in the lineup is highly advised.  Hitting behind Carl Crawford and the middle of the Red Sox order, Saltalamacchia's counting totals will rise if Boston is smart and starts Salty full time. 

Resurgent Raul:  Philadelphia has dealt with Raul Ibanez and his mediocre bat for three months, but in July, he finally perked up.  Over the past 30 days, Raul has delivered 7 HRs, 26 RBIs, a .301 AVG and .934 OPS.  He's only 35% owned in Yahoo! leagues so jump on him now, while you still can.

Buy Bourgeois: With the recent trades of Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, Jason Bourgeois seems to finally have a regular spot in the lineup.  In only 131 ABs, the speedster has stolen 22 bases, and hit .344 with a .798 OPS.  He's a speed demon, and one that should be far more owned than he is currently (19% in Yahoo! leagues, 42.4% in ESPN).  He could provide your team a good 20-25 steals down the stretch given his blistering speed and what seems to be free control to steal whenever he chooses, along with a tidy .300 average.

Party Like It's 2005 Again:  Derrek Lee is hitting like the former Triple Crown contender he once was over the past 14 days.  He's hit 5 HRs and 12 RBIs with a .317 average and 1.096 OPS.  In his Pittsburgh debut yesterday, he hit 2 homers.  Pittsburgh definitely upgraded at first base, and now he'll probably move right in to the cleanup spot or 3 hole in the lineup.  McCutchen is now batting leadoff until Jose Tabata or Alex Presley is back, so hopefully McCutchen can cause chaos on the basepaths and help Lee's production.  He's a decent option as a fill-in at 1B or a UTIL while he's hot, but don't count on him long term for production.
Do The Duda: After the Mets traded Carlos Beltran away, they handed the RF job to Lucas Duda.  While most of you probably don't even know who he is, you should make yourself familiar with him, soon.  Over the past 14 days, he has 3 HRs, 8 RBI, 7 R, a .314 AVG and a 1.034 OPS.  He's a top-100 player in Yahoo! over that span, and should be added in deeper leagues if you're in need of a outfielder and one of the other options listed in this post isn't available.  He's only 3.7% owned in ESPN and 3% owned in Yahoo! so jump on him early rather than later.  He displayed power in AAA, hitting 10 HRs in 38 games before getting the call up to New York, so he can help your team in a deep league immediately.

Playing the Porcello:  Don't look now, but Rick Porcello is turning things around and making up for time lost.  In June, the young pitcher threw 32 innings, struck out 24, and posted a 3.06 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 5 wins.  He's been more aggressive with his pitching, and has had firmer control of his fastball, as his walks are down.  He's only 16% owned in Yahoo! and ESPN leagues, and could definitely help those in 14-team mixed leagues or deeper leagues.  I still don't think he's a must-start (I would avoid his upcoming turn against Texas), but he's definitely a useful pitcher right now for deep leagues.

Needing Niemann:  Ever since the beginning of July when he came off the DL, Jeff Niemann has been lights out for the Rays.  He's only allowed 5 runs over the month (.96 ERA), with a .89 WHIP, and has two double-digit strikeout games.  The towering 6'9" tall righty has found his 2009 form again, posting a 3.51 ERA for the year.  Niemann has top prospect pedigree, and is useful in most formats given his strong K numbers.  He's owned in 47.9% of ESPN leagues, but merely 30% owned in Yahoo! leagues.  12-team mixed leaguers could benefit from at least streaming Niemann (especially this week against Oakland), if not adding him to their roster for good.

Release Rios!  For some ungodly reason, 51% of Yahoo! owners still roster Alex Rios.  This is a newsflash to all those owners, as I was a Rios owner for a while.  He's not returning to form this year, cut him.  His .207 AVG is second lowest of any qualified AL hitter (Adam Dunn is the lowest!), and he isn't even producing counting stats, as he has 6 HRs and 8 SBs on the year.  Alejandro De Aza has taken over in center field for him, and played far better in his short time.  If that's not damning enough, I don't know what to tell you.

8/1/11

NFL Free Agency: Roundtable Part 2

On Sun, Jul 31, 2011 at 9:47 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:

We touched on teams already and which teams have done well for themselves so far, but let's get more specific now Scott.  With hundreds of moves being made, some absolutely have to jump out at you for one reason or another.  Like I alluded to in Part 1, I'm absolutely stunned by the massive contracts that players who aren't elite have been handed.  Not only free agents, but even players acquired in trades have gotten hefty contracts too.  Which players do you think have been overpaid the most thus far in the 2011 offseason?

On Sun, Jul 31, 2011 at 10:13 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:

I think Eric Weddle becoming the NFL's highest paid safety is a severe overpayment. I get that AJ Smith had to retain him and Weddle is a fantastic young safety, but is he really the best in the league? Your casual football fans probably don't even know who he is, and though that isn't a great barometer of talent, I bet you they could at least guess many other positions correctly. Weddle has only been to one Pro Bowl and I just don't know if he can live up to that kind of contract.

Crazy as this may sound, Peyton Manning's contract bothers me. Sure, he took a pay cut from what Jim Irsay had publicly said he was worth but the fact that all $90 million of that is guaranteed if he just passes his physical? Even for one of the greatest to play the position, at age 35 coming off of neck surgery I just don't get it. I can't doubt Peyton's durability or track record and I know we may look back on this post one day with a good laugh after Peyton has obliterated every quarterback record there is, but I would be a bit antsy if I were a Colts fan. Don't give me this "it allowed the team to retain Joseph Addai!" mess, either. Everyone knows if Peyton wanted $150 million and told Irsay to bring back Addai at all costs so there wouldn't be anymore "God Dammit Donald" moments, the Colts would kick over some rocks and find the money.

Finally, since three's company I want to go out on a bit of a limb. I know you are probably raring to go and have some guys in mind so I am going to put on my swami cap and peek into the future. I predict that Antonio Cromartie will have a Brinks truck backed up to his house by someone. With every other major corner signed and the Jets desperate to retain his services, it's going to be a mess. The Redskins and Raiders have been in on the bidding and I can't imagine what the Jets would have to bring to the table to outbid Al Davis and Dan Snyder.

Who do you have, Bryan? Do you think any other free agents have broken the bank?

On Mon, Aug 1, 2011 at 10:22 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:

Looks like Cromartie didn't get overpaid too heavily actually at 4 years, $32 million.  Agreed on Weddle, but to be fair, Eric Berry is the highest paid NFL safety (6 years, near $60 million) as a function of last year's elevated rookie wages.  Still your point stands, Weddle is a very solid safety, but not elite enough to command that kind of paycheck.  And guaranteeing any player their entire contract for 5 years is insanity, I don't care if he's as durable as Peyton Manning, one bad injury and he's done.

You know that I didn't like the Charles Johnson signing too much, that's the worst contract yet I think this year.  Johnson had a great season last year, but rewarding one 11.5 sack season with a $72 million deal is pretty borderline crazy.  He's young, and the Panthers had to pay a premium because... well, they're the Panthers, not exactly a free agent destination, but it's still pretty tough to justify when they didn't pay Peppers last year.  In the same division, while I understand Tampa Bay has a lot of spending to do to get near the salary cap, they didn't have to go and pay their punter Michael Koenen $19 million over 6 years.  Based on the fact that he may only be on the field 70-80 times this season and he's making $3 million, that's ridiculous.

Kevin Kolb got the Matt Cassel treatment, and got a huge contract right upon being acquired, and I think they overpaid quite a bit.  Even Kolb was probably stunned when they offered him $63 million over 5 years.  He has yet to prove anything of substance, playing a couple games each year and having flashes of greatness as well as "God Dammit Kevin" moments.  He makes Larry Fitzgerald happy, so that's good, but they paid him $63 million and traded away their best corner and a 2nd rounder.  Far too much was invested in Kolb unless he is the next big thing at quarterback, so they better hope he is exactly that. 

As far as team friendly contracts, the Giants have made away like bandits so far.  Steve Smith and Mathias Kiwanuka both coming back on one year deals due to their injuries last year ends up looking great for the Giants, because both players need to build their stock back up.  Especially given the rumors of trading Osi Umenyiora, bringing back Kiwanuka was a huge deal.  I think they would have been well-served trying to sign some bigger names in addition, but they got good deals on both players rehabbing their value.  

The Lions got Stephen Tulloch on a one year deal for a mere $3.25 million, giving their linebacking unit some legitimacy, a big signing for them. They also re-signed Chris Houston at what I assume is a low rate as well.  The linebacking corps of Deandre Levy, Stephen Tulloch, and Justin Durant is at least average, if not slightly above average, so that's huge for the Lions. They don't need stars there when their defensive front is so powerful.  Tulloch gravitated towards his former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz in a big way and the Lions capitalized.  My opinion on their offseason has done a full 180 now, because Tulloch was who they needed.

Other one-year deals were great bargains as well, such as the Plaxico deal with the Jets (1 year, $3.017 million), and Cedric Benson re-upping with the Bengals for one more season.  Those moves involved very little risk, but surely some moves this offseason are extremely risky.  Which signings or trades do you think have the highest risk involved?

On Sun, Aug 1, 2011 at 11:55 PM, Scott Rodgers wrote:

Any time a running back is nearing 30 is a risk. The Panthers threw caution to the wind and signed the 28 year old DeAngelo Williams to a 5 year, $43 million contract with $21 of it guaranteed. You and I have had discussions about this and I completely understand the rational behind it but this is more of an issue with the position than the player himself. We're all use to players being in their prime in their mid to late 20s, but with running backs it's the polar opposite. They're starting to come down on the other end of the bell curve and it doesn't help that DeAngelo has been nicked up.
I mentioned Peyton before, so I won't go too far in depth again, but I think his contract is also a risk. If he plays out the length of his contract (big if) you are paying for his 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40 year old seasons. I don't care who you are or even if you're the greatest kicker to ever walk the Earth, I don't want any player during those years.

To continue my unorthodox picks, I think the biggest risk of the entire offseason is the Bears playing chicken with Olin Kreutz. Reportedly he is unhappy with Jerry Angelo's approach to talks because he was first offered a 50% pay cut and then told to make a decision in an hour. Earlier in the offseason he was getting calls from the 49ers but said he doesn't want to play for any team other than Chicago so now he may just retire. If the Bears lose Kreutz I cannot even begin to think of how many times Jay Cutler will be bulldozed this season.

We have talked quite a bit about the Kolb for Rodgers-Cromartie and a second rounder but that trade is immediately what I thought of when reading your email. I understand an above average quarterback is more valuable than just about anything in the NFL. Quarterbacks are marketable, they're usually the faces of their franchise, and they shelf life is much lengthier than a lot of positions if you can keep them upright. However, to trade a young, ball hawking corner (yes, he does make a lot of misreads and there are a lot of times you want your DB to just knock it down instead of going for the pick) and a second rounder for a guy with seven starts? Really? I don't see how it makes a lick of sense. I guess you're right, it makes Fitzgerald happy (though if I remember correctly he was clamoring for Marc Bulger before the lockout) and Kolb may be just good enough to win the NFC West.

On Sun, Aug 1, 2011 at 4:54 PM, Bryan McWethy wrote:

Those are all definitely hefty risks.  I want to get Seattle in the mix here, because they're another team that like Carolina, isn't a free agent destination and has to overpay for players.  I can understand bringing in Tarvaris Jackson, but not as the starter and with Charlie Whitehurst as a backup.  That's beyond risky, it's a surefire way to ensure you're not making the playoffs.  Additionally, they paid DT Brandon Mebane as much as the much better Cullen Jenkins (5 years, $25 million for both) to make sure he stayed, because they don't have much of a pass rush anywhere else.  My biggest problem with their free agency was Sidney Rice though.  I know you love your former Gamecock WR, but I think you'd freely admit that his injury history and one transcendent season is troubling.  He's been pretty quiet unless he had a superb quarterback.  For some odd reason he really wants to work with Tarvaris Jackson again, so we'll see how that pans out.  Unless he's producing like he did in 2009, he's not worth $8 million a year at all.  They also lost C Chris Spencer to the Bears (there goes the playing chicken with Kreutz), so that eliminates that problem for the Bears, as Spencer is a solid center, but opens a new hole for the Seahawks.  I have to say I just don't understand what the hell Pete Carroll is doing.

Carolina paid Charles Johnson $12 million a year through 2016, a very huge risk.  Only $30 million is guaranteed, but that's a lot of money.  MLB Jon Beason is now the highest paid middle linebacker in the league at 5 years, $50 million, but he's at least one of the best at his position.  Johnson can't claim to be that yet.  They paid an old Olindo Mare 4 years and $12 million to kick, when Jon Kasay was a fine option in-house.  Again, I understand the need to overpay players because the Panthers aren't an attractive organization, but at a point, you need to know to cut bait in negotiations.  While the Panthers made the moves they needed to, and I respect them for that, I still question the money they're throwing around.
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